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SNCF GROUPGLOBAL INVESTOR CALL
• Laurent Trevisani, Deputy CEO, SNCF Group• Guillaume Hintzy, Global Head - Financing & Treasury, SNCF Group
SNCF GROUPCREDIT PROFILE
SNCF GROUPOVERVIEW OF THE REFORM
RAILWAY REFORM: WHAT CHANGED IN 2020
+ Creation of a vertically integrated group gathering all mobility
and logistics activities
+ The 3 SNCF companies have been converted into SA (public
limited companies), 100% state-owned (directly and
indirectly) and whose shares are non-transferable
+ Train stations manager « SNCF Gares & Connexions SA » has
been transferred to SNCF Réseau SA
A NEW GOVERNANCE A MORE SUSTAINABLE FINANCIAL STRUCTURE
+ Higher productivity efforts at SNCF Group level
+ €35 bn debt relief at SNCF Réseau SA, the first stage of which
already took place in 2020 for €25 bn
+ Stronger Golden Rule for SNCF Réseau SA:
+ Enlarged perimeter to include all capex
+ Ratio shifted from 18x to 6x by State decree
3 GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL
+ Passenger transport activities open to competition
+ Rail offer development favored by tariffs moderation on high speed
lines and freight activities
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIL OFFER
+ End of specific employee status for new employees hired from 2020, in
parallel with a national collective agreement for all rail employees
A SOCIAL COMPONENT
4 GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL
SNCF: AN OVERVIEW OF THE NEW STRUCTURE
SNCF SA
(Holding)
Subsidiaries
100%non transferable
100%62%
55%
100%non transferable
70% 100% 100%
100% State-ownedshares are non transferable
RÉSEAU VOYAGEURS Freight activities
GARES&CONNEXIONS
This chart only present main subsidiaries
+ SNCF Réseau SA: infrastructure and train station manager
+ SNCF Voyageurs SA: train operating company in France and abroad
+ KEOLIS: world leader in day-to-day mobility (mass transit)
+ GEODIS: freight and logistics
+ Rail freight activities including SNCF Fret: rail freight transport
GROUP MISSIONS
+ Ratings: AA- / Aa3 / A+
KEY CREDIT FEATURES AND KEY FIGURES
€8.0Turnover
€17.0Turnover
€6.6Turnover
€8.2Turnover
€ 2.0Turnover
+ 100% French State-owned and strategic missions for the French State
+ Large share of revenues from local authorities through contracts with
the regions
+ An integrated business model enabling the company to meet the
challenges of “mass transit”
+ Well prepared and positioned to benefit from the gradual opening to
competition in the passenger transportation segment
+ World leader in urban mass transit and logistics in more than 120
countries
+ Targeting FCF neutrality by 2022 for the Group
+ Turnover: €35.1 bn + EBITDA: €5.6 bn + Net Debt*: €35.3 bn
*Pro forma of total debt relief occurring in 2020 (€25 bn)
SNCF GROUPCREDIT PROFILE
SNCF GROUP2019 FINANCIAL RESULTS
6 GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL
2019 FINANCIAL RESULTS FOR SNCF
Revenues
EBITDA
Financial Result
Net Result (rec.)
Gross Investment
Net Investment excl. sub
Free Cash Flow
Net Financial Debt
Net Debt / EBITDA
(€bn)
(€bn)
(€bn)
(€bn)
(€bn)
(€bn)
(€bn)
(€bn)
(x)
20182019 2019 PF*
33.3
4.0
-1.5
-0.2
-8.9
-5.1
-2.6
56.6
14.1
35.1
5.6
-1.9
-0.3
-9.9
-5.2
-2.3
60.3
10.8
35.1
4.6
-1.7
-
-9.9
-5.3
-2.3
60.5
13.1
HISTORICAL FIGURES
TURNOVER & EBITDA COMMENTS ON 2019 RESULTS
2019
STRIKE IMPACT STRIKE IMPACT
REVENUES EBITDA w/o IFRS 16
35.1
4.6
-0.7 -0.6
2018
2019
2018
+ Turnover: dynamic 2019 activity with +5.1% in growth in ordinary turnover mainly underpinned by train
passenger activities
+ EBITDA: +€430 m vs 2018 notwithstanding IFRS 16 and perimeter effects. Strong improvement vs. 2018
(despite December strike) as a result of the increase in turnover and the success of the performance plan
generating €560 m in additional competitiveness over the year
+ Net result (rec): recurring net income at -€301 m. Excluding strike impact, Group recurring net result would have
been positive at +€313 m
+ CAPEX: historical level of investments at €10 bn, 95% of which allocated for the rail activities in France
+ Free Cash Flow: stable excluding net strike effect*** of 2018-2019. Targeting positive FCF by 2022
*Pro forma of IFRS 16 impact **FFO = EBITDA – cash interest paid – cash taxes paid
FFO** / Net Debt (%) 3.5%5.8% 4.4%
2019 PF / 2018
+1.8
+0.6
-0.3
-
-1.1
-0.2
+0.2
+3.9
-1.0x
+1%
33.3
4.0
-0.8
-0.9
+4.7%
+5.4%
+9.2%
+14.9%
***Net strike effect = excluding strike impact of 2018 and 2019
A STRONGER INTERNATIONAL FOOTPRINT
North America
Central America
South America
North Africa
Africa
Australia / Oceania
South East Asia
South Asia
Central Asia
Middle East
Central & Eastern Europe
Northern Europe
United Kingdom
Western Europe
(excl. France)€2 565 m
+ 266
€237 m
€174 m
€2 996 m
€3 112 m
€35m
€40 m
€237 m
€82 m
€88 m
€404 m
€176m
€904m
€1 011 m
+ 65
+ 11
+ 410
+ 131
+ 3
+ 1
- 42
+ 4
+ 17
+ 0
- 59
+ 0
+ 64
Turnover increase / decrease in m€
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+5.1% INCREASE IN TURNOVER VS. 2018 (W/O IFRS 16)
8 GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL
Revenues
2018
Perimeter
& norms
effects
33 311
+120
+€1.7 bn / +5.1%
SNCF Réseau
SA
Gares &
Connexions
SA
Voyages
SNCF
TER
Transilien
Intercités
KEOLIS Logistics
(GEODIS &
Rail Freight)
SNCF
Corporate
Other (SNCF
Immobilier &
other)
35 120
+97 +43+312
+460
+601 +39+164 -26
+€1.5 bn / +4.5%Net of 2018 & 2019
strikes
Revenues
2019
VOYAGES SNCF (+4.2%)1
+ Success of new offers (Atlantique, TGV Max,
OUIGO with new destinations)
+ Growth in Thalys turnover with the launch of the
new road « Amsterdam-CDG Marne la Vallée »
+ Eurostar: stable but penalized by strikes of
custom officers in S1 and by Brexit turmoil in S2
+ Customer satisfaction increased to 82% in
2019 (+3 pts)
TER, TRANSILIEN, INTERCITES KEOLIS (+10%)2 3
+ TER & Intercités: dynamic growth in traffic and
turnover underpinned by improvement in the
quality of service and takeover of Hauts-de-
France Intercités lines
+ Leman Express: launch of the Leman Express,
longest transnational European network
+ Transilien: dynamic growth in traffic (+1.7%) and
turnover
+ TER: customer satisfaction increased to 86% in
2019 (+4.2 pts)
+ In France: undisputed leadership (+2% in growth)
in spite of a tough competitive environment
+ On the overseas market: very strong growth
(+18%) supported by a full year operation in the train
market in Wales (Transport for Wales), new bus
contracts won in Norway and in the Netherlands,
launch of the Shanghai Pudong airport automatic
subway and completion of first part of the new Doha
metro
1 2 3
TURNOVER WATERFALL 2018-2019 (IN M€)
+11.7% INCREASE IN EBITDA VS. 2018 (W/O IFRS 16)
EBITDA
2018
Perimeter
& norms
effects
4 020
+986
+ €586 m / +11.7%
SNCF Réseau
SA
Gares &
Connexions
SA
Voyages
SNCF
TER
Transilien
Intercités
KEOLIS Logistics
(GEODIS &
Rail Freight)
SNCF
Corporate
Other (SNCF
Immobilier &
other)
5 591
+221 +7+158 +75 +2 +88 NA +35
+ €428 m / +10.6%Net of 2018 & 2019
strikes
EBITDA
2019
Of which: €+972 m
related to IFRS 16
EBITDA MARGIN 2018-2019
SNCF Réseau
SA
Gares &
Connexions
SA
Voyages
SNCF
TER
Transilien
Intercités
KEOLIS Logistics
(GEODIS &
Rail Freight)
10%
20%
30% 25%28%
16%13%
15%
4%4% 6%10%
4%9%
EBITDA WATERFALL 2018-2019 (IN M€)
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COMMENTS ON EBITDA
+ IFRS 16: +€972 m in EBITDA related to IFRS 16
+ Commercial activities: +€430 m related to commercial activities, €315 m of
which related to rail activities
+ Performance plans: +€560 m in additional competitiveness over the year
+ Strikes: 2018/2019 net strike impact of +€156 m
+ SNCF Réseau: in line with the increase in turnover (infrastructure fees)
+ Voyages SNCF: growth underpinned by OUIGO and TGV InOUI performance
(stronger occupancy rates)2018 / 2019
16%
Some of 2019 / 2018 variation can
be explained by IFRS 16 effects
A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN FCF, +€3.7 BN IN NET DEBT
10 GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL
Net Debt
2018
CFO after
taxes and
before IFRS 16
56.6
In bn€
Financial
expenses
Change in
working
capital
Net
investments
Net
divestments
Perimeter
effect*
Dividend paid Other** Net Debt
2019
60.3
-4.5
+1.7
+5.2
+0.1
-0.3 +0.5 +0.6 +0.3
-€2.4 bn in Free Cash Flow for 2019
Cash (-) / debt (+)
Of which € 537 m reinjected as investment subsidies to
support SNCF Réseau’s investments
*MyPark acquisition (KEOLIS) for € 194 m + Car Postal acquisition (KEOLIS) for € 34 m + Raffles Lease acquisition (Ermewa) for € 187 m ** Mainly changes in fair value for € 392 m
FCF BY ACTIVITY 2018-2019 (IN BN€) COMMENTS ON FREE CASH FLOW
+ 2019 vs. 2018: stable excluding net effect of 18/19 strikes ; improvement in
EBITDA partly offsetting the increase in CAPEX financed by SNCF
+ 2019 performance: strongly impacted by SNCF Réseau largely negative FCF
(-€2.0 bn), including €1.3 bn of financial charges to be halved in 2020 following first
stage of State debt relief
+ Strike impact: €0.6 bn in impact on FCF (2019). 2020 figures impacted to €0.3
bn, 2/3 of which will be recovered in 2020 (net impact of €0.1 bn)
+ Perimeter effects: €0.5 bn related to bolt-on acquisitions at KEOLIS (€230 m)
and Ermewa (€187 m)
SNCF
Réseau
SA*
G&C
SA
Voyages
SNCF**
TER &
TransilienKEOLIS GEODIS TFMM OTHER
-2.51
-1.97
-0.06 -0.02
0.260.11 0.17
-0.07
0.110.01
0.14 0.13
-0.37-0.31
-0.31-0.23
DEBT RECONSTRUCTION 2018-2019 (IN BN €)
2018 / 2019
* SNCF Réseau SA excluding Gares & Connexions and Immobilier **Including Intercités
RECORD LEVEL OF CAPEX (€10 BN) AND STATE SUBSIDIES
11 GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL
CAPEX PER ACTIVITY IN 2019 (IN BN €) COMMENTS ON SNCF SA CAPEX
SNCF
Réseau SA
G&C
SA
Voyages
SNCF
TER &
Transilien KEOLIS OTHER
GROUP INVESTMENT FROM 2014 TO 2019 (IN BN €)
5.57
2.60
2.97
0.39
Direct investments
Subsidies
0.43
0.690.29
1.40
0.33 0.76
Dec-2015 Dec-2016 Dec-2017 Dec-2018 Dec-2019
8.70
2.52
6.18
8.63
3.05
5.58
8.90
3.70
5.20
8.88
3.79
5.09
9.87
4.63
5.24
+ Group investments strongly growing vs. 2015 (+€1.2 bn)
+ Significant support from the French State as evidenced by the very
high level of subsidies (29% in 2015 and 47% in 2019)
+ €5.6 bn of CAPEX allocated to SNCF Réseau SA, mainly for renewal
and performance (€2.7 bn) and major development project (€2.2 bn,
including €0.7 bn on EOLE).
+ €2.6 bn of CAPEX used for the acquisition, overhaul, revision and
conversion of rolling stock (including the delivery of 111 new train
sets) & €1.7 bn allocated to fixed facilities and information system
(train stations, digital applications…)
1.11
1.69
+€1 155 m / +13.3%
FINANCIAL ACTIVITY – WHAT HAPPENED IN 2019/20 ?
DEBT ISSUANCES IN 2019
Investors - geographical
breakdown in 2019 (%)
France
U.K.Europe(incl. Scandies)
Asia
N. America
Others
34%
11%35%
7%
4%9%
+ 22 debt funding operations in 2019
+ €5.6 bn raised
+ 25% raised in USD
+ 17 years in average maturity
+ 60% under benchmark format
+ 55% under Green format
12 GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL
+ SNCF issued in 08/19 the first century Green Bond ever for an amount of €100 m
+ SNCF received in 03/19 a Green Bond Pioneer award by the Climate Bond Initiative in
March 2019 for the quality of its Green Bond Reporting
+ Green Bonds: in 2019, SNCF issued 2 Green Bond benchmarks for €500 m & for
€1 500 m completed by 8 taps on existing Green Bonds (€1 050m). A total of €3 050 m
raised under green format in 2019 ; a record
+ SNCF signed a €3.5 bn Revolving Credit Facility (RCF) available from 1 January 2020,
cost of which evolves in line with the achievement of sustainability targets:
+ Carbon footprint: a reduction of Greenhouse gas (GhG) emissions ;
+ Renewable energy: a higher share of renewable energy for electric traction ;
+ Responsible purchase: a higher weighting of ESG criteria in the scoring of tenders
2019 FINANCIAL TOP NEWS
+ A new EMTN program at SNCF SA level
(€12 bn) updated in 2020
+ A new Neu CP (€3 bn) and ECP (€5 bn)
programs at SNCF SA level updated
Neu C.P
ECP
EMTN
€3 bn
€5 bn
€12 bn
Short-Term
Ceilings
Long-Term
Ceilings
PROGRAMS (2020) GREEN BOND (2020)
+ Green Bond Framework updated at
SNCF SA
+ ‘Second Party Opinion’ (SPO)
provided by ISS ESG and asserting
compliance with the GBP principles
and ‘Prime’ rating (B-) of the entity
carrying the eligible projects
+ Green methodology unchanged from
former RESFER approach
3 884
5 294
6 342
2 224
5 582
12.6 12.3 15.6
23.8
16.7
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1.3%0.8%
1.8%
0.7%1.2%
AMOUNT, MATURITY, COST 2015-2019
Debt raised Avg. maturity Avg. all-in cost
SNCF GROUPCREDIT PROFILE
SNCF GROUP2020 FINANCIAL STRATEGY
FINANCIAL STRATEGY AND POSITIONING IN 2020
14 GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL
Net debt / EBITDA < 5x by 2022
Positive FCF by 2022
Defend Group’s rating by ensuring ratios consistent with a plc status:
Liquidity ratio >1.2x
2018 2019 2022
2018 2019 2022
2018 2019 2022
2018 2019 2022
5.0x
10%
>0
>1.2x
-2.6 -2.3
FFO / Net debt > 10% by 2022
14.1x 7.7x*
3.5% 7.5%*
*Including €25 bn debt relief & without IFRS 16
1.5x1.0xUses of liquidity expected to decrease in line with debt-
relief and decrease in financial & capital charges
FUNDING POLICY AND ROADSHOW PROGRAM
FUNDING POLICY FOR SNCF SA
RATINGS ALIGNED ON STATE (-1 NOTCH)
+ A targeted long-term funding programme of €4.0 billion in 2020
+ 3 main funding pillars in the bond market:
+ Building credit curves in €, $ and in green bond core financial markets, with liquid benchmark issues especially on long term maturities
+ Being active when possible in public £ or CHF markets where SNCF Réseau has reference curves
+ Issuing innovative products such as inflation linked bonds, NSV, etc., completed by tailor-made private placements
+ The funding strategy emphasizes public benchmarks and public reopening, leaving around 25% room for private placements in various formats and currencies
+ A dynamic investor relation policy in the key investor main geographical areas (America(s), Asia, Europe, Middle East) to diversify the investor base
AA/A-1+Stable
Aa2Stable
AA/F1+Stable
AA-/A-1+Stable
Aa3/P-1Stable
A+/F1+Stable
AA/A-1+Stable
Aa2/P-1Stable
AA/F1+Stable
15 GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL
ROADSHOW PROGRAM IN MARCH 2020
+ SNCF SA in charge of the financing of the new SNCF Group has mandated
BNP Paribas and Crédit Agricole CIB to organize a series of fixed income
investor meetings across Europe starting on Monday 2nd March.
+ The issuer will be offering individual investor calls on request
+ An inaugural Green EUR-denominated benchmark with a long-dated
maturity will follow, subject to market conditions
+ The notes will be in Reg S Bearer format off the EMTN program and in line
with SNCF SA’s Green Bond Framework
+ For more information, please contact SNCF at [email protected]
PERSPECTIVES IN 2020
16 GLOBAL INVESTOR CALL
+ Expected growth expected to reach a 10-year low
in the word (2.7%) and at +1.3% in France
+ Growth in turnover expected to remain strong in
2020 and in line with 2019-2018 growth
ECONOMIC GROWTH EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN
STRIKES IMPACTS TO BE OFFSET IN 2020
€11 BN IN INVESTMENTS EXPECTED IN 2020
SNCF’S STRATEGY FOR 2020
+ As a direct consequence of the 45 days of strike
in December 2019 and January 2020, the group
will have to increase its efforts to win its customers
back
+ The level of expenditures will be adapted to offset
2/3 of 2020 losses related to the strikes (~€300 m)
+ In 2020 free cash flow will improve significantly as
a consequence of the €25 bn debt relief and
financial charges cut in half
+ A sustained investment policy in 2020: the level
of investment (all funding combined) should exceed
€11 bn, a new historic amount
+ 95% of investments allocated to rail
+ The strategy of SNCF will be deployed on rail
development in France with 3 major challenges:
+ Environmental and ecological
+ Reconciling with territories and regions
+ Opening to competition for passenger activities
+ SNCF will consider 4 priorities:
+ Increase customer satisfaction
+ Renovate and rejuvenate the rail network
+ Redevelop the rail freight offer
+ Bet on the men and women of the group
SNCF GROUPCREDIT PROFILE
SNCF GROUPAPPENDICES
MECHANISM OF THE DEBT RELIEF
€ 35bnEquity increase
Existing Lenders
Existing Lenders
Existing Lenders
$ $ $
CONSEQUENCES FOR SNCF RÉSEAUThis debt relief, in addition to SNCF Réseau’s performance plan, will allow SNCF Réseau, in 2022 or thereafter, to :- significantly reduce its net debtand
increase its equity;- cut down its financial expenses,
on a pro-rata basis, byapproximately€ 1.1 bn peryear;
- reach financial equilibrium in termsof free cash flow and, thereby, stabilize its net debt;
- reach financial ratios that arecompatible with a PublicLimited Company status;
- ensure a fair treatment amongall creditors including bondholders.
A
€ 35 bn loan
€ 35 bn loan
B
€ 35 bn loan
D
C
C
€ 35 bn loanFrench State
EXISTING STRUCTURE
1 2 3 4
A
CREATION OF
A SYNTHETIC DEBTSNCF Réseau lends andborrows the exact same amount to/fromthe CDP (Caisse dela dette Publique /Public Debt Fund). Thecharacteristics (maturities, interest rate, etc.)of both loans fully replicate thoseof SNCF Réseau’s financial debt (including associated derivatives):
CDP lends to SNCF Réseau the amount to be createdsynthetically (€ 35 bn in two stages: € 25 bn onJanuary 1st, 2020 and € 10 bn by 2022).
B SNCF Réseau lends to CDP theexact same amount with similar conditions at the same time.
C
DEBT RELIEF MECHANISM
The French State replaces SNCF Réseau as debtor to the CDP by operation of law resulting in the direct increase in SNCF Réseau’s equity.
D SNCF Réseau still receives from CDP the interests and principal of the syntheticdebt until maturity of it.
18 SNCF GROUP INVESTOR PRESENTATION
This document is being furnished to you solely for your information on a confidential basis andmay not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, in whole or in part, to any other person. Thisdocument does not constitute or form part of any solicitation, offer or invitation to purchase orsubscribe for any securities issued by SNCF SA and neither it nor any part of it shall form the basisof, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Accordingly, it isnot directed to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of anyrecipient.
You should consult with your own legal, regulatory, tax, business, investment, financial andaccounting advisers to the extent that you deem it necessary, and make your own investment,hedging and trading decisions (including decisions regarding the suitability of an investment inSNCF SA securities) based upon your own judgment and advice from such advisers as you deemnecessary and not upon any view expressed in this document.
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance may be placed forany purposes whatsoever on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the informationor opinions contained herein. None of SNCF SA, or any of its affiliates, advisers or representativesshall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising fromany use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this document.
Certain statements in this document are forward-looking, including statements concerning SNCFSA’s plans, objectives, goals, strategies, future events, future revenues or performance, capitalexpenditures, financing needs, plans or intentions relating to acquisitions, competitive strengths andweaknesses, business strategy and the trends SNCF SA anticipates in the industries and the politicaland legal environment in which it operates and other information that is not historical information. Bytheir nature, forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general andspecific, and risks exist that the predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward-lookingstatements will not be achieved. SNCF SA does not make any representation, warranty or predictionthat the results anticipated by such forward-looking statements will be achieved, and such forward-looking statements represent, in each case, only one of many possible scenarios and should not beviewed as the most likely or standard scenario. Such forward-looking statements speak only as ofthe date on which they are made. Any opinions expressed in this document are subject to changewithout notice and SNCF SA does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forwardlooking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Within the United Kingdom, this document is directed at and intended for distribution only topersons in the United Kingdom in circumstances where the provisions of section 21(1) of the FinancialServices and Markets Act 2000 do not apply to SNCF SA and is directed solely at persons in theUnited Kingdom who (a) have professional experience in matters relating to investments fallingwithin article 19(5) of the Financial Services And Markets Act 2000 “FSMA” (Financial Promotion)Order 2005, as amended (the “Order”) or (b) are persons falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) (“highnet worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.”) of the Order or (c) are persons to whom itmay otherwise lawfully be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as “relevantpersons”) and in such a case this document must not be viewed, accessed, acted on or relied on inthe United Kingdom by persons who are not relevant persons and any investment or investmentactivity to which the document relates or may relate is available only to relevant persons and willbe engaged in only with relevant persons.
This document shall not be made available to and should not be made available to any retailinvestor in the European Economic Area (“EEA”). For these purposes, a retail investor means aperson who is one (or more) of: (i) a retail client as defined in point (11) of Article 4(1) ofDirective 2014/65/EU (“MiFID II”); or (ii) a customer within the meaning of Directive 2016/97/EU,as amended, where that customer would not qualify as a professional client as defined in point(10) of Article 4(1) of MiFID II.
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