sneak peek: fire on the water: china, america, and the future of the pacific

FIRE on the WATER

Haddick-Fire_P4.indd 1 7/7/14 2:26 PM

Naval Institute PressAnnapolis, Maryland

FIRE on the WATER

ROBERT H ADDICK

China, America, and the Future of the Pacific


Naval Institute Press291 Wood RoadAnnapolis, MD 21402

© 2014 by Robert HaddickAll rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication DataHaddick, Robert. Fire on water : China, America, and the future of the Pacific / Robert Haddick. pages cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-61251-795-7 (hbk. : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-87021-060-0 (ebook) 1. Pacific Area—Strategic aspects. 2. Sea-power—Pacific Area. 3. United States—Military policy. 4. China—Strategic aspects. 5. China—Military policy. 6. United States—Foreign relations—Pacific Area. 7. Pacific Area—Foreign relations—United States. 8. Security, International—Pacific Area. I. Title. II. Title: China, America, and the future of the Pacific. UA830.H34 2014 355’.03301823—dc23 2014020216

∞ Print editions meet the requirements of ANSI/NISO z39.48-1992 (Permanence of Paper).Printed in the United States of America.

22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1First printing

Maps created by Charles Grear.


To Josh Manchester


vii

Contents

List of Maps viii

preface ix

acknowLedgMents xi

List of acronyMs xiii

introduction 1

chapter 1 A Three-Decade Drive to a Collision 7

chapter 2 It Matters Who Runs the Pacific 35

chapter 3 America’s Archaic Military Machine in the Pacific 52

chapter 4 China’s Strategy: Salami Slicing and 77 the Missile Revolution

chapter 5 America Pivots to Asia, then Stumbles 101

chapter 6 A Competitive Strategy for the Pacific 121

chapter 7 A New Approach to America’s Pacific Partnerships 139

chapter 8 The Future of Airpower in the Pacific 160

chapter 9 The Struggle for Control of the Western Pacific 180

chapter 10 A New American Strategy for the Asia-Pacific Region 203

notes 219

seLected BiBLiography 247

index 261


viii

Map 1: Pacific Island Chains and China’s Crude Oil Import Routes 11

Map 2: Maritime Territorial Disputes in East Asia 17

Map 3: U.S. Military Bases in the Asia-Pacific Region 58

Map 4: China’s Anti-Access Capability 89

Maps


ix

Preface

This book grew out of a research project I conducted in 2012 and 2013 for U.S. Special Operations Command. The resulting monograph, available to the public at the website of Joint Special Operations

University, examined the future role of coalition special operations forces in the context of the security competition in East Asia.1

As I completed that study, I concluded that the topic of East Asia’s security, and America’s role there, required a much broader treatment, one that included assessments and conclusions I had not read elsewhere. There are many excellent books and monographs that address various aspects of the security situation in the Asia-Pacific region, many of which are sources for this book and which are cited in the notes. I saw a need for a book that comprehensively explained the security challenges in the region, America’s interests there, the shortfalls in the current U.S. strategy, and a description of needed reforms. This book thus draws on the research I performed for U.S. Special Operations Command, but goes further. That said, this book is based entirely on open-source research, freely available in the public domain. In addition, the views and conclusions of this book are mine alone and do not necessarily represent the views of any part of the U.S. government. The growing security competition in East Asia, sparked by the rapid rise in China’s economic, political, and military power, is likely to be the most consequential national security challenge the United States will face over the next two decades. Indeed, the magnitude of the challenge may exceed that which the U.S. faced during the Cold War, if only because China’s economic capacity far exceeds that of the former Soviet Union and, should current economic growth trends continue, could soon eclipse that of the United States.


x PREFACE

The goal of this book is to raise awareness inside the United States and elsewhere about the deteriorating security situation in East Asia, the consequences if the current course is not altered, and why the U.S. needs to make major changes to its military forces and policies for the region. I have written this book to introduce East Asia’s emerging security problems to a general audience. I have tried to minimize the amount of military and security jargon, while keeping in mind why the technical performance of military capabilities matters in a strategic context. Many readers will find some of the conclusions in this book to be controversial. If so, a healthy debate over America’s policies for Asia can only be a good thing, since the stakes for the United States are so high. Finally, this book will have succeeded if it sparks further research on these issues and more discussion among policymakers and the public. An open discussion by policymakers and the public on America’s role and strat-egy in the Asia-Pacific region is long overdue. It is my hope that this book will make a contribution to that conversation.

roBert haddick

Washington, D.C.January 2014


xi

Acknowledgments

I have received much support during the process of completing this proj-ect. I thank the staff at the U.S. Naval Institute Press for their assistance. For over a century, the Naval Institute Press has published history, anal-

ysis, and reference books that have been critical to America’s security. I am honored to join that long and distinguished line. I thank Adam Kane, senior acquisitions editor, for taking on my project; Adam Nettina for improving my manuscript and managing the project; Jeanette Nakada, copyeditor, for getting the manuscript in shape; and Janis Jorgensen for assistance with the photo gallery. I also thank Claire Noble, the Press marketing manager, and Judy Heise, publicist, for their efforts promoting the final work. I thank Charles David Grear for preparing the maps. The Naval Institute Press is a remarkably efficient organization and this is due to the professionalism of these people and their colleagues. Naturally, any shortcomings in the book are my responsibility. I have benefited from many professional relationships in recent years. In 2008 Dave Dilegge and Bill Nagle recruited me to Small Wars Journal and arranged for me to become a military affairs columnist at Foreign Policy magazine. I thank them for these opportunities. Over my years inside the defense community in Washington, D.C., I have formed many friend-ships and associations from which I benefit professionally every day. I have also benefited greatly from my long friendships with Dan Kingston and Capt. Robert Peters, USN (Ret.). All roads lead back to my friend Josh Manchester, who opened the first door for me, and to whom I have dedi-cated this book.


xii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I must thank my family for their support. Lois, Bob, Mark, and Barbara have been great friends and supporters for decades. My wife’s family has also provided friendship and support for many years. Finally, my wife, Susan, was essential to the completion of this project. Proficient in Mandarin and a student of China for over two decades, she provided challenging questions and insights all along the way. To her and everyone, thanks.


xiii

ADIZ air defense identification zone

AIP air-independent propulsion

AMRAAM Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile

ASBM antiship ballistic missile

ASCM antiship cruise missile

ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations

C4ISR command, control, communications, computers, intel-ligence, surveillance, reconnaissance

CCP Chinese Communist Party

CMC Central Military Commission

CNOOC China National Offshore Oil Corporation

CSBA Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments

DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

EEZ exclusive economic zone

EMCON electronic emissions control

EU European Union

EFV Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle

GPS Global Positioning System

IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency

ICBM intercontinental ballistic missile

INF Intermediate Nuclear Forces [Treaty], INF Treaty

JASSM-ER Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range

JCS Joint Chiefs of Staff

Acronyms


xiv ACRONYMS

JOAC Joint Operational Access Concept

JROC Joint Requirements Oversight Council

JSOTF-P Joint Special Operations Task Force Philippines

LADAR laser-radar

LOCAAS Low Cost Autonomous Attack System

MEU Marine Expeditionary Unit

MRBM medium-range ballistic missile

NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization

NSSS National Security Space Strategy

ONA Office of Net Assessment

PLA People’s Liberation Army

PLAAF People’s Liberation Army Air Force

PLAN People’s Liberation Army-Navy

SAM surface-to-air missile

SLAM-ER Standoff Land Attack Missile-Expanded Response (cruise missile)

TEL transporter-erector-launcher

THAAD Theater High Altitude Air Defense

TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership

UAV unmanned aerial vehicle

UCLASS Unmanned Carrier Launched Surveillance and Strike (aircraft)

UNCLOS United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

VBSS visit, board, search, seizure

VLS Vertical Launch System


1

Introduction

The risk of war in East Asia is rising. Nearly every week brings news of another clash over islands in the East and South China Seas, disputes over fishing and drilling rights, or accusations of armed incursions

into territorial waters. In response to these growing tensions, the region is experiencing a leap in military spending, as countries scurry to defend them-selves. Nationalism is ascendant, while old memories of historical griev-ances are fresh again. This year is the centennial of the start of World War I, a catastrophe the magnitude of which still shocks a century later. A few experienced states-men are openly wondering whether East Asia might be reliving that disaster. In his book Diplomacy, former U.S. secretary of state Henry Kissinger said, “The relations of the principal Asian nations to each other bear most of the attributes of the European balance-of-power system of the nine-teenth century. Any significant increase in the strength by one of them is almost certain to evoke an offsetting maneuver by the others.”1 In 2013 former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd described East Asia as “a 21st-century maritime redux of the Balkans a century ago—a tinderbox on water,” a comparison to the nationalist hothouse that sparked World War I.2 Regarding the ongoing tensions between China and Japan over small islands in the East China Sea, Kurt Campbell, a former U.S. assistant secre-tary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs concluded in 2013, “there is a feeling of 1914 in the air. Just as with tensions between European armies at the turn of the last century, both Tokyo and Beijing are absolutely cer-tain of the rightness of their positions. More importantly, both believe that with a little further pressure, the other side is on the verge of blinking and backing down.”3 In 2006 China had its own public conversation about


2 INTRODUCTION

Imperial Germany and the origins of World War I when China Central Television broadcast a highly popular twelve-part series titled “Rise of the Great Powers.”4

We can hope that the disastrous consequences of World War I, restored to memory this centennial year, will draw attention to the ominous resem-blances now accumulating in East Asia. Large historical forces proved too much for statesmen a hundred years ago. Some of the same remorseless forces are now placing stress on Asia. The region and the world can avoid another tragedy. But doing so will require better strategies than those at work today. A change in the distribution of power is the source of today’s growing conflicts in Asia. Over the past three decades, China has reemerged as an economic and political great power, with rapidly expanding interests in the region and across the world. China’s leaders perceive the need to protect these interests, an unsurprising result with numerous parallels in history. Unfortunately history also has recorded the many cases when a new great power appeared and war was the result. The rapid ascent of Athens before the Peloponnesian War, Germany before World War I, and Japan before World War II are a few of the many examples of wars that resulted when statesmen failed to adapt to the sudden arrival of a new great power. In order to protect its growing overseas interests and gain control over its links to the outside, China is now pressing previously dormant claims for maritime territory in the East and South China Seas. If successful, China would not only gain security for itself over vital lines of communication to its economy, it would also gain control over vast hydrocarbon, mineral, and fishing resources. But these gains would come at the expense of its neighbors, most of whom are now resisting China’s increasingly aggressive assertions. China is also undertaking a rapid and well-designed modernization of its air, naval, missile, and military space power. The U.S. Department of Defense estimated that between 2003 and 2012, China’s real, inflation-adjusted defense budget grew at an average rate of 9.7 percent per year.5 At that rate China’s real defense spending will double every 7.5 years. By next decade China’s military buildup will give it the ability to dominate the air and sea lines of communication in the western Pacific. Although China’s intentions remain murky, the emerging military capability is clear. Since intentions can change rapidly, statesmen are forced to focus on threatening capabilities. As a result China’s neighbors are now engaged in their own arms buildups, with the military spending of China’s neighbors expected to jump more than 55 percent during the middle five years of this decade com-pared to the previous five years.6 An open-ended and accelerating security


INTRODUCTION 3

competition in East Asia is under way, with dangerous implications for peace and security in the region. The stakes at risk in the region are immense. East Asia has long been the most economically dynamic region in the world. A major conflict there would cripple the global economy. For the United States, nearly a tenth of its economic output and employment is tied directly to trade with the region, with the second- and third-order effects of disruption likely as large. In sum, millions of American jobs are tied to Asia’s security. From a stra-tegic perspective, the United States has five security treaty relationships in the region, which benefit U.S. security but are also a measure of America’s credibility as an ally. Finally, since its founding the United States has relied on, and has defended, the freedom of navigation and rights to the global commons. Today’s disputes in the western Pacific, tied to China’s territorial assertions in the region, place these principles at risk. The U.S. government belatedly perceived the deteriorating security situ-ation in East Asia and is now giving the region more attention.7 But this book will show that the United States does not have an effective response to China’s territorial assertions or its military modernization. Fearful of enabling a confrontation over which it could lose control, U.S. diplomats are standing aside while China increasingly bullies its small neighbors over its territorial claims. This is leading to confusion, demoralization, and an accelerating and likely destabilizing arms race in the region. America’s part-ners in East Asia are key to a successful strategy. But the United States will need a new diplomatic approach if it is to achieve the cohesion among these partners that will be necessary to preserve stability. Meanwhile U.S. policymakers and military planners have underesti-mated the military potential China is on track to achieve by next decade. Bureaucracies inside Washington resistant to change and policymakers fearful of creating controversy have hampered an effective response to the emerging political and military challenges posed by China. The United States needs a reformed military strategy for the region. These reforms are needed to convince China’s leaders that military coercion won’t work. In addition, the present structure of U.S. military forces in the region leaves these forces vulnerable to attack and creates a dangerous incentive for offensive escalation during a crisis. Reforming America’s military force structure in the region will be difficult and expensive. But it is necessary if the region is to maintain stability as China’s military power continues to expand. Statesmen everywhere are aware of 1914’s harsh lessons. Yet in spite of this forewarning, Asia now seems to be on a very similar path as then. A century ago Europe’s statesmen were unable to adapt to Germany’s dramatic


4 INTRODUCTION

rise and fashion a stable and mutually satisfactory balance of power. In this era the United States, acting as an outside balancer, has played the central role in East Asia’s security, a responsibility that has boosted the prosperity of all. But just like Europe a century ago, it is doubtful that Asia, left on its own, could shape a stable balance of power in the face of China’s dramatic rise. America’s role as outside balancer is essential for the region’s stabil-ity. But this time, it is Washington—its policymakers and institutions—that has been slow to adapt to the rapidly changing security situation in Asia. Without a better American strategy for the region, the risk of conflict in East Asia will continue to grow. Indeed, the next ten years may prove to be a particularly dangerous period, as China’s leaders ponder what to do with a strategic window that will open for them. Designing and implementing a new U.S. strategy won’t be easy, but it is vital for America’s own interests for it do so, and quickly. This book describes a better U.S. strategy for the Asia-Pacific region. Chapters 1 and 2 discuss the sources of conflict in Asia and explain why it is in America’s interest to maintain its active forward presence in the region. Chapter 3 discusses the history of America’s military presence in East Asia and explains why that presence, as it is presently constituted, is increasingly vulnerable. Chapter 4 explains in detail China’s military modernization pro-gram and why by next decade it will pose a grave threat to U.S. and allied interests. Chapter 5 explains why the current U.S. responses to China’s mili-tary modernization are ineffective and possibly dangerous. The remainder of the book lays out a new security strategy for the United States in East Asia. Chapter 6 discusses the principles of strategy as they apply to the problems the United States faces in the region. Chapter 7 discusses the role of America’s partners in the region and how the United States should refashion its diplomacy and security relationships. Chapters 8 and 9 describe the major changes the United States needs to make to its defense programs in order to cope with China’s emerging military power. Finally, Chapter 10 summarizes a new strategic approach to the region and the barriers U.S. policymakers will have to overcome to implement it. The goal of a new American strategy in Asia is to prevent conflict while preserving an existing international order that benefits all. The strategy pro-posed will call for the United States and its partners to implement specific military and diplomatic reforms to balance China’s rising power. The strat-egy displays respect for China’s arrival as a great power, offers it a role in the region’s security, and welcomes China’s continued economic and social progress. The strategy discussed in this book is not a war plan. It is a strat-egy for managing a peacetime competition in a highly dynamic region. The strategy’s success will be measured by the crises that never occur, the wars


INTRODUCTION 5

that are never fought, and the long continuation of the region’s prosperity and development, including inside China. The Asia-Pacific region has long been a challenge for the United States. Over the past century, America fought four wars in the region and strug-gled with a dangerous, four-decade competition against the Soviet Union. But with these challenges and tragedies have also come opportunity, trade, wealth, and cultural enrichment for countless millions on both sides of the Pacific Ocean. America’s ties with the region have delivered millions of jobs, higher standards of living, growing investments, and cultural interactions that have enriched all. For all of these reasons, East Asia will arguably be the most conse-quential region of the world for U.S. interests in the decades ahead. But it seems to only now be dawning on some policymakers in Washington what the risks—and possible rewards—are that China’s rapid rise poses for U.S. interests. For a general public distracted by other conflicts and economic anxiety, the growing perils in East Asia have yet to meaningfully register. This book explains why the region is crucial to the United States, why current policies for the region are falling short, and what changes the United States must make to ensure a peaceful and prosperous future for Asia and for America’s interests. Getting on the right course will not be cheap or easy. But the rewards for doing so will be immense. The risk of war in East Asia is rising. But the United States and its partners in Asia have the power to prevent another tragedy and to shape a better future that will benefit all.


sneak peek: fire on the water: china, america, and the future of the pacific

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