social and ecological systems interacting: historical and future transitionshistorical ...€¦ ·...
TRANSCRIPT
Presentation to the HENVI Science Days, Helsinki 2011
Social and ecological systems interacting: historical and future transitionshistorical and future transitions
Marina Fischer-Kowalski
Institute of Social Ecology, ViennaInstitute of Social Ecology, ViennaAlpen Adria University
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O tliOutline
1 The socio metabolic approach: a theory of1. The socio-metabolic approach: a theory of society-nature interaction and co-evolution
2 Historical transformations lead to a high energy2. Historical transformations lead to a high energy, high carbon society, as will be described. A sustainability transition needs to lead away from that
3. The role of the social sciences in comprehending the „Great Transformation“ to modern society. How could they provide guidance for a next transformation?guidance for a next transformation?
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |
social metabolism
The dual maintainance and perpetuation of human society
Human society is maintained• Culturally: by a flow of self referential communication,
f (organized in subsystems of society (the economy, politics, law, education…), each with its own codes
• Biophysically: by a continuous flow of energy and materials from / to the natural environment (social metabolism), and by deliberate interventions into the environment (colonization)
Both modes of perpetuation are interdependent and indispensible
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |
i t t i t ti
social metabolism
l i ti society – nature interactioncolonization
cultural sphere of causationnatural sphere of causation
SOCIETY‘Sli
programmelabour
NATURE CULTUREBIOPHYSICALSTRUCTURES
meta-bolism
live com-munication
material world human society
representationevents
material world human societysocial
metabolism
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |
Social science family relations of the socio
social metabolism
Social science family relations of the socio-metabolic approach
• It relates to classical political economy (Ricardo, Smith, Marx)• It draws on sociological systems theory (Luhmann, Baecker, Simon…) in
it d t di f i l t t f i tiits understanding of social systems as systems of communication• it draws on ecological anthropology (Steward, Rapaport, Harris) • it draws on basic ideas of Latour ( actor network theory“): hybridit draws on basic ideas of Latour („actor network theory ): hybrid
structures, symmetry• It draws on Godelier‘s ideas of historical / evolutionary dynamics: it is not
th t l h i t h b l i ( i ithat only human society changes by learning (e.g. improving technology), but that nature changes through human interventions, and this in turn drives social change,
• thus creating a co-evolutionary dynamics. (see also Noorgard, Gowdy)
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |
The socio-metabolic approach
social metabolism
The socio-metabolic approachscarcity pollution
metabolic rift of global
bi h i l
Biosphere Biosphere
biogeospherical cycles
S SS S
Pre-industrial metabolism Industrial metabolism
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |
Model of social metabolism
social metabolism
Model of social metabolism
AirAir,Water
WaterVapour
Imports Exports
EconomicProcessing
p p
Immigrants Emigrants
DMI
DE DPODMI
DE=domestic extraction
DMC= domestic
StocksDMI=domestic material input
DPO=domestic
material consumption =DMI -exports
Domestic Environmentprocessed outputexports
source: after Matthews et al. 2001, Eurostat 2007
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |
C l i i l i l t
social metabolism
Colonizing ecological systems
• Colonization refers to the intended and sustained• Colonization refers to the intended and sustained transformation of ecological systems, by means of organized social interventions, for the purpose of improving g p p p gtheir utility for society.
• A colonizing intervention must both be causally effective in changing some biophysical process; it must make a difference in the world of matter. Likewise, it must be culturally conceived of organized and monitored; it mustculturally conceived of, organized and monitored; it must ‚make sense‘ in the world of communication.
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | source: (Fischer-Kowalski & Weisz 1999, p. 234)
Colonization of ecological systems
social metabolism
Colonization of ecological systemsResources / services gainedgained
Colonized system
Social systemNatural
Change induced through colonization
system
Work / energy /Work / energy / materials invested
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |
S t li
social metabolism
Systems coupling • Sustaining colonizing interventions requires certain organizational
provisions in the social system concerned; equally the continuousprovisions in the social system concerned; equally, the continuous receipt of certain ecosystem services creates dependence upon them. In effect, a structural coupling between the social system and its relevant
t l t lnatural systems evolves. • Colonizing interventions not only induce intended, but also unintended
changes in natural systems, and thereby put the required ecosystem g y y p q yservices at risk
• Thus, colonizing interventions may lead to a control spiral: over time, interventions may have to be extended intensified or changedinterventions may have to be extended, intensified or changed altogether to take care of unintended side effects.
• This may at some point be beyond the coping (learning) capacity of the social system: the colonizing regime has to change (transition), or the socio-ecological system collapses.
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |
W ki h b i t b li i
social metabolism
Working hours by sociometabolic regime
Average daily Trinket (hunters Campo Bello Nalang (permantAverage daily hours
Trinket (hunters & gatherers)
Campo Bello(swidden)
Nalang (permant agriculture)
per adult 1,2 4,7 5,9ECONOMY
3,2 3,8 3,7HOUSEHOLD
per inhabitantECONOMY
0,8 2,5 3,5ECONOMY
HOUSEHOLD2,1 2,1 2,1
HOUSEHOLDPopulation dens. (pers/km2)
11 38 43
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: Fischer-Kowalski et al. 2009
(submitted)
regime transitions
Transitions between socio-metabolic regimes
NeolithicRevolution
industrial revolution
Sustainability Transition?
?I d t i l Sustainable ??Hunters and Gatherers
Agrarian societies
Industrial societies coal | oil
Sustainable ? Knowledge society?
Socio-metabolic regimes
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: adapted from Sieferle et al. 2006
the energy transition 1700-2000 in regime transitions
the UK: from biomass to fossil fuelsShare of energy U it d Ki dShare of energy
sources in primary energy consumption
(DEC)
United Kingdom
90
100
biomass(DEC)
70
80
90 biomasscoal
50
60
Biomass
Coal
OIL/Gas/NuclearOil / gas / nuc
20
30
40 / nuc
0
10
1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1830 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: SEC Data Base
the energy transition 1700-2000 - latecomersregime transitions
gyUnited Kingdom AustriaAustriaUK
60
70
80
90
100
60
70
80
90
100
20
30
40
50
Biomass
Coal
OIL/Gas/Nuclear
20
30
40
50
Biomass
Coal
OIL/Gas/Nuclear
0
10
1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1830 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
10
1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1830 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Japan
90
100
JapanShare of energy
sources in primary energy consumption
(DEC) 50
60
70
80
Biomass
Coal
OIL/Gas/Nuclear
Japan
( )
0
10
20
30
40
Source: SEC Data Base
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |
1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1830 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Metabolic scale:
regime transitions
60Construction minerals
Global materials use 1900 to 2005
Ores and industrial minerals
Fossil energy carriers
Biomass construction materials
40
n to
ns]
ores & ind. minerals
materials
20
[bill
ion
fossil fuels
biomass
0
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: Krausmann et al. 2009
th l i
regime transitions
the coal regime
• The transition towards the coal regime started in the UK slowly in the g y17th century. Its link to the rise of capitalism has been well reflected already by the social science grandfathers (Smith, Marx, Spencer, Mills…), without much causal reference to its base for energy (coal). ) gy ( )
• This transition, for the vast majority of people, was unwelcome and forced upon them. Beyond its wellknown economic and technological features, such as wage labour, the steam engine and railroads, it was , g , g ,connected to the start of a demographic transition multiplying population; it removed the former constraints to city growth and to the mobility of people and commodities, it changed personality structures and opened p p g p y pup completely new realms of culture and meaning. This regime allowed the industrial countries to become colonial powers and use much of the world as their agricultural hinterland.
• the completion of this transition in the core industrial countries was marked by a world economic crisis and two world wars.
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |
last century’s socio metabolic regime transitions worldwide
regime transitions
last century s socio-metabolic regime transitions worldwide100,0 10,0
TPES/cap (primary y-metabolic
80,0 8,0
axis)
DMC/cap (secondary y-axis)
metabolic rates: annual resource use per capita
60,0
GJ/
cap/
yr 6,0
[t/ca
p/yr
]
Materials
40,0TPES
[G
4,0 DM
C [
Energy
20,0 2,01930
coal based-
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
-
coal based
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: after Krausmann et al. 2009
th il i
regime transitions
the oil regime• with the advent of petroleum, led by the United States, another major p , y , j
transition occurred that was much more welcomed by the people.• it brought with it a reorganization of population dynamics towards low
fertility; another major change in the organization of human labour (F di ) l ti “ i f d d ti th b kth h(Fordism); a „green revolution“ in food production; another breakthrough in mobility and transportation; electricity, „consumer society“ and the American way of life. Again the makeup of the human character changed (Riesman) and gender relations became fluid; democraticchanged (Riesman) and gender relations became fluid; democratic governance spread and the welfare state (New Deal), and an increasing share of the population could participate in education and knowledge; colonialism was abandoned and forests in the industrial core countries
ll d twere allowed to regrow.• The heydays of this metabolic regime ended with a first crisis of supply
of the oil fuelling it (which happened to coincide with peak oil in the US) in the early 1970s Cultural marker: Club of Rome Report of Meadows‘in the early 1970s. Cultural marker: Club of Rome Report of Meadows world model „Limits to Growth“
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |
last century’s socio metabolic regime transitions worldwide
regime transitions
last century s socio-metabolic regime transitions worldwide100,0 10,0
TPES/cap (primary y-metabolic
80,0 8,0
axis)
DMC/cap (secondary y-axis)
metabolic rates: annual resource use per capita
60,0
GJ/
cap/
yr 6,0
[t/ca
p/yr
]
Materials
40,0TPES
[G
4,0 DM
C [
Energy1973
20,0 2,01930
coal based oil based-
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
-
coal based
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: after Krausmann et al. 2009
1973 2000 l t i d
regime transitions
1973-2000: a latency period
• since the oil crisis in the early 1970s material and energy use per capitasince the oil crisis in the early 1970s, material and energy use per capita stagnated (in the industrial countries and globally).
• Endeavours to find another energy source in nuclear power proved to be i d i k (Th Mil I l d d Ch bil) d did tvery expensive and risky (Three Mile Islands and Chernobil), and did not
really take off. • Key new development: information technology. It does have a potential y p gy p
to bring about a departure from the high carbon regime, but this was underutilized..
• Increasingly the exploitation of natural resources and the accumulation• Increasingly, the exploitation of natural resources and the accumulation of wealth failed to further improve the living conditions of the broad majority of people. In the industrial countries, mass incomes stagnated, labo r time rather e panded than decreased and elfare ser iceslabour time rather expanded than decreased and welfare services contracted.
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |
last century’s socio metabolic regime transitions worldwide
regime transitions
last century s socio-metabolic regime transitions worldwide100,0 10,0
TPES/cap (primary y-metabolic
80,0 8,0
axis)
DMC/cap (secondary y-axis)
2000metabolic rates: annual resource use per capita
60,0
GJ/
cap/
yr 6,0
[t/ca
p/yr
]
Materials
40,0TPES
[G
4,0 DM
C [
Energy1973
20,0 2,01930
coal based oil based Latency-
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
-
coal based oil based Latency
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: after Krausmann et al. 2009
f
regime transitions
the composition of material input into industrial societies
t i l i t EU15 (t i %)material input EU15 (tonnes, in %)carbon
containing input
Biomass
total: 17 tonnes/cap*y
Biomassconstruction minerals
industr.minerals
fossil fuels
source: adapted from EUROSTAT 2003
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |
regime transitions
Material outflows from industrial societies
Wastes and emissions
D PO t o air ( C O2 )
outflows total: 16 tons per capitaWastes and emissions
D PO t o air ( C O2 )
D PO t i *
CO2
D PO t o air*
D PO t o land ( wast e)D PO t o wat er D PO t o land ( wast e)
D PO t o land ( d issipat ive use)
D PO t o wat er
unweighted means of DPO per capita forA, G, J, NL, US; metric tons
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: WRI et al., 2000; own calculations
th t d d t hi d i i
regime transitions
the past decade: catching up and crisis
• Meanwhile many developing countries emerging economies) haveMeanwhile, many developing countries, emerging economies) have started successfully to catch up, economically and biophysically, in their consumption of material input. They follow the same carbon intensive pathway often based on coal (which creates even more CO2 per unitpathway, often based on coal (which creates even more CO2 per unit energy). This has globally become apparent in a new rise of metabolic rates after the year 2000, although the metabolic rates in the industrial
t i i d t tcountries remained stagnant.• Now, we have maybe just surpassed a next world economic crisis. From
a climate perspective, this crisis had advantages: it reduced carbon p p gemissions. And now rising resource prices create pressure on industry towards increasing resource productivity.
• This may provide a certain moratorium but no major socio-metabolic• This may provide a certain moratorium, but no major socio-metabolic transition yet.
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |
regime transitions
Resource use per capita (metabolic rates) by development status and population density
20
25Construction mineralsOres and industrial minerals
15
20Fossil fuelsBiomass
Share of world l ti
5
10population 13% 6% 62% 6%
-
5
High densityindustrial
Low densityindustrial
High densitydeveloping
Low densitydeveloping (NW)industrial core rest of the world
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Metab.rates: DMC t/cap in yr 2000Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010
last century’s socio metabolic regime transitions worldwide
regime transitions
last century s socio-metabolic regime transitions worldwide100,0 10,0
TPES/cap (primary y-metabolic
80,0 8,0
axis)
DMC/cap (secondary y-axis)
2000metabolic rates: annual resource use per capita
60,0
GJ/
cap/
yr 6,0
[t/ca
p/yr
]
Materials
40,0TPES
[G
4,0 DM
C [
Energy1973
20,0 2,01930
coal based oil based Latency-
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
-
coal based oil based Latency
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: after Krausmann et al. 2009
Projections of resource use up to 2050 – threeregime transitions
Projections of resource use up to 2050 three forced future scenarios
Global metabolic scale (Gt) Global metabolic rate (t/cap)150
Observed dataFreeze & catching up
18
Observed dataFreeze & catching up
Global metabolic scale (Gt) Global metabolic rate (t/cap)
100
le [G
t]
Factor 2 & catching upFreeze global DMC
12
t/cap
/yr]
Factor 2 & catching upFreeze global DMC
50met
abol
ic s
cal
6etab
olic
rate
[t
50m
me
0
1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
2025
2050
0
1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
2025
2050
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: UNEP IRP Decoupling Report 2011
Three forced future scenarios of resource use
regime transitions
Three forced future scenarios of resource use
1. Freeze and catching up: industrial countries maintain their metabolic t f th 2000 d l i t i t h t trates of the year 2000, developing countries catch up to same rates incompatible with IPCC climate protection targets
2 M d t t ti & i d t i l t i d2. Moderate contraction & convergence: industrial countries reduce their metabolic rates by factor 2, developing countries catch up
compatible with moderate IPCC climate protection targets
3. Tough contraction & convergence: global resource consumption of the year 2000 remains constant by 2050, industrial and developing countries settle for identical metabolic ratescountries settle for identical metabolic rates
compatible with strict IPCC climate protection targets
Built into all scenarios: population (by mean UN projection), development p p ( y p j ), ptransitions, population density as a constraint, stable composition by material groups
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010
h ll t t i bilit
regime transitions
challenge to sustainability
• a continuation of past trends clearly challenges the natural resourcea continuation of past trends clearly challenges the natural resource base for the social metabolism of future generations, as well as improvements of material welfare for present generations in developing countriescountries
• this reaches even beyond the most imminent and most politicized issue of climate change resulting from the high carbon content of our metabolism and emissions of CO2 and encompasses all resources, including food and water
• What is required is another major metabolic transition, and concomitantWhat is required is another major metabolic transition, and concomitant changes in the economy, in technology and in society
• which we need to bring about either by insight and reason, or it will be forced pon s or (most likel ?) a combination of bothforced upon us, or (most likely?) a combination of both.
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |
what can be the role of the social sciences in guiding
social sciences’ role
what can be the role of the social sciences in guiding such a transition?
• there are a number of indications of social scientists moving in newthere are a number of indications of social scientists moving in new directions, leaving the social science cocoon and taking the natural sciences seriously (e.g. Gidden‘s remarkable book about climate policy, Leggewie Beck Latour )Leggewie, Beck, Latour…).
• The belief in incremental progress has lost much of its attraction, though sometimes leading to an arrogant attitude towards „technological fixes“ – a new balance is required.
• Still, most of social science is far from being engaged in an active role in seeking for solutions. But we need to learn: There is no rescuein seeking for solutions. But we need to learn: There is no rescue planet in sight, nor is an alternative source of energy of the same density readily availability at a low price. There will be no other chance than going solar again and this will entail a very different structure ofthan going solar again, and this will entail a very different structure of society.
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |
di ti ti d
social sciences’ role
new directions continued
• Among the many natural scientists that observe with awe what is goingAmong the many natural scientists that observe with awe what is going on and what is threatening in the future, you find a desperate search for advice on how to change social behaviour (see NATURE Jan. 2010).Al d thi t b f th d t f th I t t A G ld• Already thirty years ago, before the advent of the Internet, A.Gouldner developed his theory of „culture of critical discourse“. He concluded that the capacity to rationally argue for – always relative – truths emerges as a countervailing power. This is what the IPCC is attempting
• The number of educated people in the world receptive to understanding complex arguments is rising rapidly. Politically, it is very dangerous tocomplex arguments is rising rapidly. Politically, it is very dangerous to deny the need for major structural change – it opens the terrain of discontent to simplistic, aggressive solutions.
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |
structural support for making a change
social sciences’ role
structural support for making a change
– world population growth has slowed down substantially, and its p p g y,decline will follow in the second half of this century; this can be accelerated by the empowerment of womenurbanization offers opportunities for material welfare at lower– urbanization offers opportunities for material welfare at lower resource cost. Cities suffer from the burden of overconsumption and are inclined to take action in changing their infrastructures
– there is or will be peak oil and impact prices– corporations are alarmed by rising resource scarcity and prices, and
start considering less expansionist and more saving orientedstart considering less expansionist and more saving oriented strategies
– there is ample potential of synergistic solutions: with health policy i t b it ith d l t li i f i t i i f dagainst obesity, with development policies for maintaining food
security, with labour unions about reducing labour time…
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |
Life expectancy at birth in relation to national income: In social sciences’ role
• Evtl preston folie einfügen!
1960, for same life expectancy less than half the income is required than in 1930!
• Evtl. preston folie einfügen!
Source: Preston 1975 (2008)
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |
Human development vs. Carbon emissionssocial sciences’ role
R2 = 0 75 0 85
HDI
2000
R2 = 0,75 – 0,85
20052000
19951990
1985 YES WE19851980
1975
YES, WE CAN!
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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: Steinberger & Roberts 2010 carbon emissions