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Social Capital, Civic Engagement and Institutional Performance in Sweden: An Analysis of the Swedish Regions by Henry Milner and Svante Ersson [email protected] Visiting Professor, Department of Political Science, Umeå University, Sweden [email protected] Department of Political Science, Umeå University, SE-901 87 Umeå, Sweden Paper prepared for the ECPR Joint Sessions of Workshops, University of Copenhagen, 14-19 April 2000. Workshop 13: Voluntary Associations, Social Capital and Interest Mediation: Forging the Link Directors: Marc Hooghe and Dietlind Stolle Abstract: In this analysis of social capital in Swedish regions (counties), we begin by replicating Putnam's 1993 study of Italian regions using Swedish data aggregated by the level of county. The primary purpose of the study is to see whether and in what form the kind of relationships between civic engagement/social capital and institutional performance identified in relatively low social-capital Italy by Putnam and his associates can be found in a high social-capital society like Sweden. What can we learn both about Swedish society and about the usefulness of social capital as an explanatory variable? Our main finding is that social capital tends to be found in the less developed regions. In the concluding section we speculate on what these changes imply about the effects of social capital in "post-modernizing" societies like Sweden and the United States. The dependent variable of our model is institutional performance at the regional/county level for the 1990s. The crucial independent variable is civic engagement or social capital, measured at three different periods of time, i.e. the 1970s, the 1980s and the 1990s. In order to control for the impact of other factors the model also includes a number of contextual variables such as regional product per capita, tax capacity, and socialist voting strength. We make use of data collected at the municipal level by government agencies (e.g., election data, library lending, tax capacity) and local organisations (participation in study circles, church attendance, etc), as well as survey data collected by Statistics Sweden for individuals and reported as aggregates for the regional level (e.g. labour force and living conditions surveys).

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Page 1: Social Capital, Civic Engagement and Institutional ... · engagement or social capital, measured at three different periods of time, i.e. the 1970s, the 1980s and the 1990s. In order

Social Capital, Civic Engagement and Institutional Performance in

Sweden: An Analysis of the Swedish Regions

by Henry Milner and Svante Ersson

[email protected]

Visiting Professor, Department of Political Science, Umeå University, Sweden

[email protected]

Department of Political Science, Umeå University, SE-901 87 Umeå, Sweden

Paper prepared for the ECPR Joint Sessions of Workshops, University of

Copenhagen, 14-19 April 2000.

Workshop 13: Voluntary Associations, Social Capital and Interest Mediation: Forging

the Link

Directors: Marc Hooghe and Dietlind Stolle

Abstract:

In this analysis of social capital in Swedish regions (counties), we begin by replicating Putnam's 1993

study of Italian regions using Swedish data aggregated by the level of county. The primary purpose of

the study is to see whether and in what form the kind of relationships between civic engagement/social

capital and institutional performance identified in relatively low social-capital Italy by Putnam and his

associates can be found in a high social-capital society like Sweden. What can we learn both about

Swedish society and about the usefulness of social capital as an explanatory variable? Our main finding

is that social capital tends to be found in the less developed regions. In the concluding section we

speculate on what these changes imply about the effects of social capital in "post-modernizing"

societies like Sweden and the United States.

The dependent variable of our model is institutional performance at the regional/county level for the

1990s. The crucial independent variable is civic engagement or social capital, measured at three

different periods of time, i.e. the 1970s, the 1980s and the 1990s. In order to control for the impact of

other factors the model also includes a number of contextual variables such as regional product per

capita, tax capacity, and socialist voting strength. We make use of data collected at the municipal level

by government agencies (e.g., election data, library lending, tax capacity) and local organisations

(participation in study circles, church attendance, etc), as well as survey data collected by Statistics

Sweden for individuals and reported as aggregates for the regional level (e.g. labour force and living

conditions surveys).

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2

1. Introduction

Though James Coleman brought the concept of social capital into the mainstream of

contemporary social science, it was its application by Robert Putnam that gained

social capital both wide public attention and a central place in political science. It

began with his pathbreaking study of Italian regions in Making Democracy Work in

1993,1 followed up two years later by an investigation focusing on the effect of social

capital on economic growth in the Italian regions (Putnam and Helliwell, 1995).

Around this time, he began to publish a series of articles enquiring into the

"disappearence" of social capital in the United States (Putnam, 1995, 1995a, 1996).

In his study of the 20 Italian regions, Putnam's approach was cross-sectional, using

primarily aggregate data to arrive at the connection between institutional performance

and differences in levels of civic engagement. (From these empirical findings, he drew

the link between civic engagement and the concept of social capital as it had been

suggested by Coleman.) In contrast, when he applied the concept of social capital to a

longitudinal analysis of the United States, he based his findings primarily on

individual-level survey-based indicators of a decline in trust, organizational

participation and interest in politics.

While both series of studies understand social capital as civic engagement and

interpersonal trust, there is a significant differrence in their approach: the cross-

sectional study relying on aggregate data focuses on the positive impact of social

capital on the performance of societal institutions, while the longitudinal one based

upon individual-level data is concerned with factors contributing to a decline in the

stock of social capital over time. These approaches are interrelated in that declining

social capital will, over time, have an impact on society; yet, given the methodological

differences, from an analytical point of view, it is useful to keep the distinction

between the two approaches in mind when analysing social capital.

We shall attempt to do so in this analysis of social capital in Swedish regions

(counties), part of which replicates Putnam's 1993 study of Italian regions. The

primary purpose of the study is to see whether and in what form the kind of

relationships between civic engagement/social capital and institutional performance

identified in relatively low social-capital Italy by Putnam and his associates can be

found in a high social-capital society like Sweden. We also identify changes in the

interrelationship among the specific indicators of social capital over the last three

decades of the 20th

century in Swedish regions. In the concluding section we speculate

on what these changes imply about the effects of social capital in "post-modernizing"

societies like Sweden and the United States.

2. The Literature on Social Capital since Putnam

We can characterize the data used in studies that have followed upon Putnam's work

as falling into 4 categories: aggregate regional-level data; aggregate national-level

data; individual longitudinal level, as well as a miscellaneous category. Below we

identify some of the main studies in each category.

1 In fact, many of his ideas were presented earlier, in a little-known article (Putnam, 1983).

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1) We are aware of several studies following Putnam (1993) using aggregate regional-

level data aiming at testing the relationship between civic engagement/social capital

and some kind of institutional performance: US states (Rice and Sumberg 1997;

Kawachi et al. 1997), Indian states (Serra 1998), German local governments (Cussack

1999), Swiss cantons (Freitag 1999). In general they tend to find support for the

positive impact of social capital.

2) The relationship between various forms of capital and economic growth has been

studied by economists over a long time. By introducing average levels of interpersonal

trust as an indicator of social capital, Putnam opened up the way to an analysis of the

impact of social capital on economic growth taken up by Knack and Keefer (1997),

Granato et al (1996), Jackman and Miller (1996), Inglehart (1997), Helliwell (1996),

and Whiteley (1999). While there has not quite been a consensus on the positive

impact of social capital, it remains a focus of interest (Knack 1999).

3) Putnam's use of individual level longitudinal data has given rise to a debate about

the decline of social capital in the United States and reasons for that. Putnam's thesis

has been tested and sometimes contested both with respect to his diagnosis as well as

his explanations for that decline by Norris (1996), Fukuyama (1999), Paxton (1999),

Greeley (1997), Uslaner (1998) and Ladd (1996).

4) A number of studies has been undertaken using various kinds of data - mostly

survey data - and applying various proxy indicators of social capital in different

settings. Examples include studies of social capital in Central America (Seeligson

1999), in Sweden (Stolle 1999), in the USA (Uslaner 1998) as well as in Canada

(Johnston and Soroka 1999).

3. Studies of Social Capital in Sweden

Before Making Democracy Work, there were no published studies of social capital in

the Swedish context that we are aware of. But when it comes to the substance behind

the concept of social capital - civic engagement and its relationship to democratic

politics - there is indeed a tradition of research going back at least to the 1950s, a

tradition built upon in recent work, such as Rothstein (1998). Rothstein sets out what

social capital represents in the Swedish context, discussing declining confidence in

political institutions, the demise of popular movements in contemporary society and

the increasing importance of social networks accompanied by an increase in

interpersonal trust. Studies looking at political implications of developments linked to

social capital include Bennich-Björkman (1999), Aspers (1999) and Wijkström

(1999).

The Democracy Audits, conducted yearly since 1995, have in certain respects also

been inspired by Putnam's analysis of social capital (Rothstein et al. 1995, Petersson et

al. 1998); likewise many of the studies published under the auspices of the

Commission of Inquiry for the Study of Democracy set up in 1997 and chaired by

former education minister Bengt Göransson (e.g., Stubbegard 1999, Lindgren 1999,

Larsson 1999). In addition, Swedish researchers in disciplines like regional science,

human geography and economics have been focusing on the potential positive

implications of social capital on economic and social development especially in

peripheral areas of society. Social capital has been associated with entrepreneurial

spirit, specifically, Gnosjöandan, the spirit of the region of Gnosjö (Berggren et al.

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1998). Social capital has also been associated with a social economy relying on the

non-profit or co-operative sector of the economy (Olsson et al. 1998). Researchers

associated with the Swedish Institute for Regional Research (SIR) have identified the

new wave of rural community organizing (Bygderörelsen) with social capital in the

sparsely populated areas of Sweden (Herlitz 1998, 1999; Forsberg and Westlund

1999).

If civic engagement through participation in voluntary organizations is understood as

one major component of social capital, then social capital has undeniably played an

important role in the development of democracy in Sweden. In fact, it has entered

official rhetoric with the terms 'popular movement democracy' (folkrörelsedemokrati)

and 'study circle democracy' (studiecirkelsdemokrati) that have been used to depict

democracy in Sweden (Johansson, I 1987, Johansson, H. 1993). And, indeed, popular

movements or voluntary organizations were crucial during the process of formation

and consolidation of democracy in Sweden (Heckscher 1949, Johansson, H. 1952,

Lundkvist 1977), and in the development and definition of the "Swedish model"

(Elvander 1969, 1988, Pestoff 1977, Milner 1989). Hence the problems faced by the

popular movements in the welfare society (Engberg 1986) are seen as reflecting a

challenge to the Swedish model (Petersson 1991, Micheletti 1995). Clearly, studying

trends relating to social capital - whether or not one accepts Putnam's

conceptualization - is part of understanding the relationship between civic engagement

and socio-economic development fundamental to explanations of Swedish society

yesterday, today and tomorrow.

4. The Research Question, Data and Model

In attempting to replicate the Putnam's 1993 study of Italian regions using Swedish

data aggregated by the level of county, our primary objective is to enquire into the

relationship between civic engagement/social capital and institutional performance.

What can we learn both about Swedish society and about the usefulness of social

capital as an explanatory variable? We begin with an overview of the data to be

employed for these purposes.

a) The Data

The regional unit for data analysis that we employ is the county/län (N=24). In the last

few years there have been reorganizations at the regional level with the result that as

of 1998 there were only 21 counties. We thus limit ourselves to data no more recent

than 1995 or 1996, except in cases where post-1998 data could be recalculated for the

24.

Basing our analysis on regional level data means that we rely essentially on two kinds

of sources. On the one hand we have data collected at the municipal level by

government agencies (e.g., election data, library lending, tax capacity) or local

organisations (participation in study circles, church attendance, etc); on the other hand

we use survey data collected by SCB (Statistics Sweden) for individuals and reported

as aggregates for the regional level (e.g. Labour Force Surveys data from AKU

[Arbetskraftsundersökningarna;], Living Condition Surveys data from ULF

[Undersökningarna av levnadsförhållanden]).

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b) The Basic Model

The dependent variable of this model is institutional performance at the

regional/county level for the 1990s. The crucial independent variable is civic

engagement or social capital, measured at three different periods of time, i.e. the

1970s, the 1980s and the 1990s. In order to control for the impact of other factors the

model also includes a number of contextual variables such as regional product per

capita, tax capacity, and socialist voting strength.

c) Operationalization of the Core Variables

We begin with an overview from the literature of how these variables have been

operationalized. Social capital is understood as composed of a number of core

characteristics: civic engagement, political equality, solidarity, trust and tolerance, as

well as social structures of cooperation. It is operationalized by Putnam as an index

combining four variables as aggregate indicators for the Italian regions: preference

voting 1953-79, referendum turnout 1974-87, newspaper readership 1975, and scarcity

of sports and cultural associations 1981 (Putnam 1993: 96). His dependent variable is

an institutional performance index combining twelve sperate indicators (Putnam 1993:

75).

Most studies using aggregate regional level data have followed Putnam fairly closely

when operationalizing social capital and institutional performance. Social capital is

represented by measures of newspaper reading and organizational density, as well as

the percentage of people displaying interpersonal trust or having contacts with

neighbours (Rice and Sumberg 1997: 105, Serra 1998: 27, Freitag 1999: 7, Cussack

1999: 17). Institutional performance has been oprationalized as reflecting policy

liberalism, policy innovation and adminstrative effectiveness (Rice and Sumberg

1997: 109) as well as citizen satisfaction, health expenditure and human development

or unemployment levels (Cussack 1999: 15, Serra 1998: 33, Freitag 1999: 3-4).

Turning to our own operationalization of social capital, we have assembled available

data from various sources for indicators capturing civic engagement (political activity,

study circle participation, newspaper reading, library lending) trust (contacts with

neighbours) and structures of cooperation (sports organizations per capita). In doing

so, we use both aggregate-level data and self-reported individual-level data aggregated

to the regional level. Among the former are library lending per capita (LIB), number

of sport organisations per 1000 population (SPORT), number of participants in study

circles per 1000 population (STUDYC), and newspaper reading per 100 households

(NEWSP). Among the latter are percentage reading a daily newspaper (DAILY),

percentage having contacts with their neighbours (NEIG) and percentage active in

party politics (POLACT).

What we term institutional performance captures both performance and outcomes,

with variables measuring economic dynamism, state outputs and citizen

dissatisfaction. Among these are indicators of citizen dissatisfaction with public

services (AGGIND), output of local government services (TOT95), population change

1990-98 (POPCH), proportion of newly established businesses (NEWBU) and change

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in total salaries paid from 1990 to 1998 (SAL9098). We also have indicators of the

overall regional level of health as reported to the National Insurance Board (UNHEA).

Finally, we introduce the following variables capturing various social and political

contextual factors which the literature suggests may impact on the relationship

between social capital and institutional performance:

a) wealth (gross regional product per capita [BRP], tax capacity per capita [TAXP] salary

level per capita [SAL]);

b) religion (church attendance [CHATT], membership in free churches [FREE]);

c) political cleavage (social democratic vote and left (communist) party vote [SVOTE,

VVOTE]);

d) political issue orientation in relation to referendums: (support line 3, early end to nuclear

power [LINE3] 1980; and no vote to entry into the EU [EUNO], 1994);

e) labour market situation (percentage of the labour force employed [EMP], as well as

unemployed [UNEM]);

f) demographic factor: population distribution (proportion living in sparsely populated

areas [SPARSE], population density [DENS], population size - natural logarithm

[LNPOP]), pluralism (proportion of foreign citizens [FORCIT]), and life expectancy for

men and women [LIFEM, LIFEW]);

g) a dummy variable capturing the north-south dimension (the five northern counties X, Y,

Z, AC , BD is valued at 1 and all others at 0 [NORTH]).

5. Mapping Institutional Performance and Social Capital over time in Sweden

Before breaking the data down by regions, we provide an overview of social capital

and institutional performance for Sweden as a whole over the last three decades, using

data from a few selected indicators to identify longitudinal trends.

a) Social Capital Indicators:

Given that civic engagement through voluntary organizations has long been seen as a

major component of social capital in Sweden, we begin by tracing membership in

these organizations. In Table 1 estimated membership data for several of the major

organizations is aggregated according to the typology suggested by Engberg (1986:

389): economic, ideological, identity and interaction. Economic associations

(ECONORG) include find trade unions and farmer's associations; the main ideological

associations (INTEORG) are the temperance and free churches movements; the most

common interaction associations (IDEAORG) are those involved with sports; while

identity type associations (IDENTORG) are linked to human characteristics like

gender or ethnicity.

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Table 1. Popular movement membership 1900-1997 (per 1000 population)

YEAR ECONORG INTEORG IDEAORG IDENTORG

1900 8,4 , 86,4 ,4

1910 15,4 10,0 108,3 ,5

1920 38,6 18,5 94,7 ,8

1930 119,2 30,1 88,7 1,0

1940 296,7 63,6 89,6 6,1

1950 415,3 111,9 76,4 17,8

1960 433,5 169,9 80,2 25,2

1970 410,8 259,7 66,3 124,4

1980 510,2 270,5 61,1 158,1

1990 461,7 291,0 54,4 125,6

1997 442,3 282,6 46,1 170,1

Yearly

change: 5.6 3.8 -.5 1.9

Sources: Based upon data reported in Johansson, H. (1954, 1970, 1980), Civildepartementet

(1993), Kulturdepartementet (1999) as well as various issues of Statistisk Årsbok

(=Statistical yearbook)

The first important organizations formed were the ideological ones, but, as we see in

Table 1, they peaked very early and then declined steadily. The major type of

organisation - despite some slippage in the last two decades - remains the economic

one, its decline only partially compensated by a rise in identity-type associations. If -

as in Table 2 - we look in greater detail at membership development for the major

popular movements (based on estimates from survey data) we find less in the way of

any general trends, since the figures tend to oscillate over time. (Note the change in

the largest category, the trade unions, between 1996 and 1997.) There is only one

category for which there is a definitive rise in membership, that of pensioners'

organizations, while a clear decline in membership is evident for the political parties

and the temperance movement.

Table 2. Popular movements: membership 1976-1997 (per 100 population) 1976 1978 1984 1987 1992 1996 1997

Trade unions 52 49 - 60 62 62 55

Sports organiz 26 26 35 36 33 32 32

Consumers org 30 28 35 36 32 31 42

Housing organ 23 21 31 28 27 25 33

Political parties 14 13 16 15 11 11 8

Environmental 8 4 6 8 9 8 7

Pensioners 5 4 5 7 9 9 9

Parents org 13 11 9 10 8 8 10

Temperance movem 3 - - 3 2 2 2

Immigrants org 1 1 2 2 1 1 1

Sources: 1976: SCB (1980a); 1978: SCB (1984); 1984: (SCB 1986a); 1987: (Blomberg et al

1989); 1992 (SCB 1994a); 1996: (Eurenius 1996); 1997: (Petersson et al. 1998)

Table 3 displays another series of social capital indicators associated with civic

engagement. When measured by hours spent, the trend is toward increased activity in

study circles and trade union membership - as well as TV-viewing, though, as Putnam

(1995a) would insist, this is hardly an expression of increasing civic engagement.

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Party membership has been going down and this is also true for the reading of daily

newspapers and newspaper copies distributed per household.

Table 3. Civic engagement indicators over time: 1970-1998

YEAR PARTY- TU LIB STUDYC- DAILY DAILY TV

MEMB MEMB HOURS NEWSP NEWS

READ CIRC

1970 , , , 667,12 , 165,1 ,

1971 , , , 741,96 , 165,5 ,

1972 , , , 817,69 , 155,1 ,

1973 , , , 861,62 , 156,4 ,

1974 , , , 994,74 , 157,1 ,

1975 , , , 1102,58 , 158,1 ,

1976 13,6 79,0 9,1 1198,52 , 159,4 ,

1977 , 81,0 9,4 1317,29 , 147,0 ,

1978 13,2 80,5 9,5 1338,97 , 114,7 ,

1979 14,2 83,0 9,4 1312,90 74 146,0 76

1980 14,5 82,0 9,4 1242,76 74 146,2 79

1981 13,3 84,0 9,4 1040,49 74 145,3 74

1982 14,1 84,0 9,5 987,39 74 137,6 78

1983 15,0 84,5 9,6 1049,10 75 137,5 76

1984 15,7 84,5 9,3 1071,09 74 136,9 75

1985 14,5 84,5 9,1 1103,97 75 137,5 76

1986 13,4 84,5 8,8 1173,73 75 139,0 75

1987 13,1 84,0 8,8 1193,25 76 132,9 80

1988 13,0 84,5 8,6 1180,30 76 130,3 76

1989 12,3 83,5 8,5 1197,39 72 134,2 76

1990 11,4 82,5 8,2 1326,89 74 133,6 79

1991 10,3 82,0 8,1 1249,65 73 125,6 79

1992 11,1 83,5 8,2 1251,38 71 124,5 80

1993 9,8 85,0 8,3 1336,42 73 119,3 84

1994 8,9 84,5 8,4 1384,41 73 116,5 85

1995 , , 8,7 , 71 114,6 84

1996 , , 9,2 1353,01 71 108,2 84

1997 , , 9,1 1393,35 72 106,7 84

1998 , , 9,1 1407,05 75 105,2 86

Yearly

change:-.3 .2 -.0 18.1 -.1 -1.9 .5

Notes and sources: PARTYMEMB = Party membership as % of electorate, (Widfeldt 1997:

123); TUMEMB = Trade union membership as % of employed (SCB 1996: 86); LIB =

library lending per inhabitant, (SCB Statistiska meddelanden various issues series U and Ku,

Bakgrundsmaterial om kultur); STUDYCHOURS = study circle participation in hours per

1000 population, (Statens kulturråd 1981, and various issues of SCB Statistiska meddelanden

series U and Ku); DAILY NEWSP READ = % of population daily reading a morning

newspaper, Nordicom (1999); DAILY NEWS CIRC = circulation of daily newpspapers per

100 population, (Tidningsstatistik 1999); TV = % of population daily viewing TV,

(Nordicom 1999).

To sum up the three tables: there as been a substantial long-term increase in civic

engagement in Sweden, but the trend has become more mixed in recent decades with,

apparently, more indicators displaying a decline than a rise. We now turn to indicators

of institutional performance and outcomes.

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b) Institutional Performance

The selection of performance and outcome indicators over time must of course be

somewhat arbitrary. We have chosen to include in Table 4:

Economic indicators: GDP per capita compared to the OECD average [PPP],

unemployment [UNEM], income distribution [GINI], general government current

revenues per GDP [CURRE],

Non-economic indicators: rates of life satisfaction (proportion agreeing that Sweden is a

very good country to live in [LIFES]), infant mortality [INFMO], suicide rates for men

[SUICI], life expectancy for women [LIFE]) and gender equality (female salaries as a per

cent of male salaries in the state sector [FEMSAL]).

Table 4. Performance/outcome indicators over time: 1970-98

YEAR PPP UNEM GINI CURRE LIFES INFMO SUICI LIFE FEMSAL

1970 113 1,5 , 46,6 , 11,00 31,3 80,45 ,

1971 111 2,5 , 49,4 , 11,09 28,5 80,59 ,

1972 109 2,7 , 49,5 , 10,82 29,4 80,60 ,

1973 108 2,5 , 47,7 , 9,87 29,5 80,88 81

1974 111 2,0 , 48,8 60 9,56 28,7 80,98 82

1975 114 1,6 ,233 50,5 68 8,63 27,7 80,99 83

1976 111 1,6 ,241 55,1 67 8,32 26,6 81,10 84

1977 106 1,8 ,231 58,0 57 8,05 28,3 91,60 86

1978 104 2,2 ,214 57,5 60 7,80 26,3 81,61 87

1979 105 2,1 ,211 56,4 56 7,49 28,3 81,76 87

1980 107 2,0 ,206 56,3 50 6,91 27,6 81,86 88

1981 106 2,5 ,203 57,6 55 6,94 24,6 82,10 89

1982 108 3,2 ,209 57,8 52 6,85 27,8 82,38 90

1983 108 3,5 ,210 59,5 62 7,04 27,3 82,68 90

1984 109 3,1 ,220 59,0 54 6,40 27,4 82,82 92

1985 108 2,9 ,221 59,5 58 6,76 25,0 82,71 91

1986 108 2,7 ,230 60,4 68 5,93 27,1 82,98 91

1987 108 2,1 ,221 62,1 , 6,12 26,0 83,12 90

1988 107 1,8 ,221 61,6 , 5,82 26,4 82,99 90

1989 106 1,5 ,244 63,7 , 5,77 26,8 83,64 89

1990 105 1,7 ,246 63,3 , 5,96 24,1 83,35 88

1991 101 2,9 ,261 60,3 , 6,15 24,3 83,56 85

1992 96 5,3 ,252 59,5 55 5,35 21,9 83,72 84

1993 93 8,2 ,257 58,8 44 4,84 22,2 83,59 83

1994 93 8,0 ,288 57,9 46 4,45 21,4 84,29 83

1995 97 , ,256 57,8 41 4,15 21,5 84,23 83

1996 96 , ,267 62,1 42 3,96 20,0 84,38 83

1997 95 , ,290 61,2 52 3,62 , 84,57 83

1998 , , , 63,0 53 , , , 84

Yearly

change:-.6 .1 .003 .5 -.7 -.2 -.3 .12 -.0

Notes and sources: PPP = Swedish ppp per/capita as % of OECD average, (OECD 1999a);

UNEM = unemploymen rate commonly defined, (OECD 1986, 1999b); GINI = income

distribution, (SCB 1999a; Björklund 1992: 45); CURRE = current receipt of general

government as % of GDP, (OECD 1986, 1999b); LIFES =% of sample agreeing that it is

very good to live in Sweden, (Stütz 1987, 1999); INFMO = infant mortality rate, (SCB

1998a); SUICI = sucide rate for men per 1000 population, (SCB 1999b); LIFE = life

expectancy for women, (SCB 1998a); FEMSAL = female salaries as a per cent of male

salaries in the state sector, (SCB 1997b, Arbetslivsinstitutet 1999).

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As we can see, there has been a certain deterioration in economic performance since

the 1970s. Not surprisingly hence, and despite improvements in life expentancy,

infant mortality, and suicide rates, the proportion of people agreeing that Sweden is a

very good country to live in has decreased significantly over time.

To sum up, this brief overview suggests that there are no distinctive longitudinal

trends linking social capital, institututional performance or institutional outcomes.

What about the spatial pattern at the regional level in Sweden? Can we detect any

such trends? We turn to this issue in the next section.

6. Social Capital and Institutional Performance at the Regional Level

In this section we investigate the relationship between social capital and institutional

performance in the 24 Swedish regions. (A map of the regions is provided in

Appendix 1.)

a) Social Capital in the Swedish Regions

The first task is to identify regional variation in social capital. As we have noted, the

mainstream conceptualization of social capital combines civic engagement and

interpersonal trust. Our indicators of civic engagement include participation in

political parties (POLACT), number of sport organisations per 1000 population

(SPORT) and newspaper reading/circulation (DAILY/NEWSP). The best indicator of

interpersonal trust avaiable by region is frequency of contacts with neighbours

(NEIG). These four indicators are combined to create a Social Capital Index (SOCAP)

for each period. As we can see in Table 5, for the three periods of time - mid-1970s,

mid-1980s, mid-1990s - the four indicators fit into factor analyses arriving at a one-

factor solution, meaning that only one factor has an eigenvalue > 1 and the other

factors eigenvalues < 1.

Table 5: Factor-analyses of social capital indicators: 1970s to the 1990s: factor

loadings and eigenvalues (N=24)

Variables Socap 1975 Socap 1985 Socap 1995

Daily .698 .738 -

Newsp - - .825

Polact .882 .814 .750

Sport .802 .683 .898

Neig .774 .807 .760

Eigenvalue

1st factor 2.51 2.32 2.63

2nd factor .71 .79 .74

Note: For explanations and notes, see the variable list.

These indices are quite highly intercorrelated: the 1995 index correlates with the 1985

and the 1975 indices for SOCAP respectively at r=.81 and .76; while between the

1985 and 1975 indices the correlation is r=.91. Thus we can reasonably state that

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social capital in Sweden - when interpreted as consisting of the indicators displayed in

Table 5 - has a stable spatial pattern over time.

The spatial variation in the development of social capital in Sweden from the mid-

1970s to the mid-1990s is displayed in Table 6. We can readily identify counties with

consistently high values on these indices - Gotland (I), Jämtland (Z), Västerbotten

(AC), Västernorrland (Y), as well as two in Småland: Kalmar (H) and Kronoberg (G)

- as well as those with consistently low values - Stockholm (AB), Malmöhus (M)

Göteborg (O) and Östergötland (E). Note that AB, M and O are the three most

urbanized regions. Social capital also seems to be rising in Norrbotten (BD) and in

Dalarna (W), but declining in Jönköping (F), Skaraborg (R) and Örebro (T).

Table 6: Social capital indicators

County SOCAP SOCAP SOCAP

75 85 95

AB -2,60 -2,71 -2,02

C -,04 -,51 -,06

D -,76 -,56 ,37

E -,66 -,47 -,82

F ,81 ,20 -,70

G ,48 ,68 ,26

H ,55 ,58 ,57

I 2,55 1,80 1,88

K -,78 ,22 -,48

L ,04 -,48 -,45

M -1,41 -1,64 -1,39

N ,46 ,16 ,43

O -1,15 -1,27 -1,30

P -,39 ,32 -,32

R ,50 ,71 -,69

S ,48 ,55 ,41

T -,02 -,38 -1,09

U -,62 -,85 ,20

W -,03 -,27 ,46

X ,21 ,16 ,06

Y ,56 ,72 ,97

Z 1,07 1,60 2,29

AC ,90 1,01 ,55

BD -,12 ,43 ,88

Note: For explanation and sources see the variable list and the map in Appendix 1

The primary, metropolitan-hinterland, distinction revealed in these figures is

supported by recent and complementary data: for example, the percentage of people

active in sport (SPORT99) as well as the presence of rural local community

organizations (RURAL95) correlates quite highly with the SOCAP (r=.67 and r=.58

respectively) confirming the validity of the social capital indicator. While newspaper

reading is included in conformity with prevailing usage, it gets at an important

dimension of social capital distinct from civic engagement we term civic literacy.

Below we shall focus on this dimension by separately examining two indicators of

civic literacy for which we have data: study circle participation (STUDYC), and

library lending (LIB).

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b) Institutional Performance

The dependent variable of this enquiry is institutional performance or institutional

outcomes. After considering various potential indicators, we have chosen three as,

together, most representative: one measuring the dynamism of the regional economy

(SAL9098), another capturing the presence of local government services (TOT95),

and, finally, one reflecting the degree of reported ill-health in a region (UNHEA). We

find, further, that these three indicators are interrelated (UNHEA correlates positively

with TOT95 but negatively with SAL9098). Therefore we decided to test for the

possibility of combining them into one institutional performance index: INSTP. The

factor analysis conducted suggests that this one-factor solution is feasible since the

Eigenvalue of the first factor was 2.06 and for the second factor only .56. The factor

loadings for the three variables were reasonably high: .868 (UNHEA), .810 (TOT95)

and -.803 (SAL9098). The final step is thus to multiply this index by -1 to arrive at

INSTP, which covaries positively with regional economic dynamism.

The spatial distribution over the Swedish regions for the institutional performance

index (INSTP) and its components (SAL9098, TOT95, UNHEA) are presented in

Table 7 below.

Table 7: Institutional performance indicators for the 1990s

COUNTY INSTP SAL9098 TOT95 UNHEA

AB 1,48 15,0 99,4 -1,20

C 1,27 10,7 95,8 -,74

D ,29 10,9 99,3 ,85

E ,16 4,1 98,1 ,07

F ,87 7,2 98,7 -1,15

G ,81 7,6 101,3 -1,51

H ,21 3,1 99,1 -,49

I ,23 4,3 101,7 -,87

K -,07 6,6 101,3 ,39

L ,54 4,2 94,8 -,07

M 1,04 6,7 93,9 -,56

N 1,18 10,8 98,5 -1,12

O ,11 8,3 99,2 ,76

P ,71 8,8 99,2 -,54

R ,89 3,6 96,9 -1,50

S -,57 ,6 102,1 ,21

T -,01 5,8 103,8 -,46

U -1,03 1,4 105,0 ,78

W -1,09 ,0 103,4 1,01

X -,81 1,0 101,0 1,09

Y -1,53 -3,1 107,5 ,50

Z -,94 -2,9 99,8 ,90

AC -1,82 4,3 112,2 1,62

BD -1,92 -2,1 105,9 2,02

Note: For explanations and sources see the variable list and the map in Appendix 1

The general pattern discernible in Table 7 suggests that institutional performance is

highest in the Capital area, i.e. Stockholm (AB) and nearby Uppsala (C) and in the

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southwest, Halland (N) and Malmohus (M). In contrast, Northern regions, Norbotten

(BD), Västerbotten (AC), Västernorrland (Y) but also Dalarna (W) and Västmanland

(U) display the lowest values. Disaggregating the institutional performance index we

note that high values are associated with economic dynamism and lower levels of

public service coverage and health problems. The opposite is true of those counties

with low scores on the institutional performance index.

c) Social Capital and Institutional Performance

From the above mapping, we begin to perceive a relationship: higher social capital

regions are those that tend to score lower in institutional performance and vice-versa.

It is time to investigate this relationship more deeply. How are institutional

performance and social capital interrelated, and is there a time dimension to the

development of this relationship over 30 years? In an effort to do so, in addition to the

social capital indices, we also look at the effect of two specific indicators associated

with civic literacy noted above, namely library lending (LIB) and study circle

participation rate (STUDYC). The bivariate correlations between these various social

capital indices and the institutional performance indices are displayed in Table 8

below:

Table 8: Social capital and institutional performance: correlations (N=24)

INSTP SAL9098TOT95UNHEA

SOCAP752Pearson Correlation -,273 -,467 ,269 -,036

Sig. (1-tailed) ,098 ,011 ,102 ,434

SOCAP852Pearson Correlation -,403 -,550 ,359 ,110

Sig. (1-tailed) ,026 ,003 ,043 ,305

SOCAP95Pearson Correlation -,538 -,595 ,398 ,350

Sig. (1-tailed) ,003 ,001 ,027 ,047

LIB76 Pearson Correlation ,229 ,339 -,202 -,039

Sig. (1-tailed) ,141 ,052 ,171 ,428

LIB86 Pearson Correlation ,179 ,155 -,065 -,219

Sig. (1-tailed) ,202 ,235 ,382 ,152

LIB96 Pearson Correlation -,020 -,013 ,128 -,084

Sig. (1-tailed) ,463 ,475 ,275 ,348

STUDYC75Pearson Correlation ,013 ,351 ,199 ,108

Sig. (1-tailed) ,476 ,046 ,175 ,307

STUDYC86Pearson Correlation -,200 ,160 ,376 ,270

Sig. (1-tailed) ,175 ,227 ,035 ,101

STUDYC96Pearson Correlation -,447 -,229 ,595 ,293

Sig. (1-tailed) ,014 ,141 ,001 ,083

Note: For explanations and sources see the variable list

In general, higher levels of social capital do not appear to be associated with high

levels of institutional performance as operationalised here. Social capital is only

weakly positively associated with public service coverage and unhealthiness, an

association that tends to become even weaker as the distance in time between the

indices increases. And social capital correlates negatively with the institutional

performance index and, in particular, with the component capturing economic

dynamism (SAL9098).

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Let us briefly consider what we learn from our two additional social capital indicators

in Table 8. Library lending is not connected with institutional performance; while, for

the mid-1990s, there is a positive correlation between study circle participation rates

and public service presence (r=.60). A closer look at these statistically significant

correlations is presented in the charts below; Figure 1 on social capital and

institutional performance, and Figure 2 on study circle participation and public service

presence.

FIGURE 1-2: about here

Figure 1 illustrates the interesting fact that social capital, at least as here

operationalized, does not correspond with institutional performance understood as

economic dynamism of the Swedish regions. Quite the contrary: the dynamic regions

are to be found among those where social capital is low, while higher social capital is

associated with relative stagnation. Why is this so? Relevant to answering this is the

fact that another aspect of institutional performance, public service presence, is, in

contrast, associated with higher social capital. Further, there is a statistically

significant positive relationship, as illustrated in Figure 2, between level of public

service presence and one aspect of social capital, study circle participation. (Good

examples are Vasterbotten (AC) which ranks high on both variables, and Stockholm

(AB) and Malmohus (M) which rank low on both variables.)

This relationship may be interpreted in two different ways: one, social capital in the

form of study circle participation tends to foster political orientations conducive to

increased public spending and thus a greater presence of public services; two, study

circle participation is publicly subsidised and hence there are more study circles in

regions where public spending is higher. Whatever the particular explanations, social

capital has an unexpected relationship to different aspects of institutional performance

- especially high in less economically dynamic regions with a greater presence of

public services. In an effort to better understand these relationships, in the next section

we bring other potentially relevant contextual factors into the analysis.

d) Possible Contextual Factors

In which contexts and for which decades is social capital strong and in which is it

weak? In section 4c we identified seven different contexts ranging from wealth to

geography which may impact upon social capital. We begin with the most recent

period, the 1990s by, first, in Table 9, displaying relevant bivariate correlations; social

capital is here captured by the social capital index (SOCAP95), as well as by library

lending (LIB96) and study circle participation (STUDYC96). We then take a closer

look at significant correlations revealed in Table 9 in Figures 3 to 6.

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Table 9: Social capital and contextual variables in the 1990s (N=24)

SOCAP95 LIB96 STUDYC96

BRP95 Pearson Correlation -,344 -,326 -,102

Sig. (1-tailed) ,050 ,060 ,317

TAXP95Pearson Correlation -,538 -,526 -,356

Sig. (1-tailed) ,003 ,004 ,044

SAL98 Pearson Correlation -,669 -,406 -,394

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,024 ,028

CHATT92Pearson Correlation ,305 ,604 ,324

Sig. (1-tailed) ,073 ,001 ,061

FREE95Pearson Correlation -,133 -,122 ,292

Sig. (1-tailed) ,268 ,284 ,083

SVOTE94Pearson Correlation ,465 ,024 ,373

Sig. (1-tailed) ,011 ,456 ,036

VVOTE94Pearson Correlation ,206 -,271 ,357

Sig. (1-tailed) ,168 ,100 ,043

LINE3 Pearson Correlation ,479 ,059 ,499

Sig. (1-tailed) ,009 ,392 ,006

EUNO94Pearson Correlation ,648 ,052 ,458

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,405 ,012

EMP96 Pearson Correlation -,296 ,101 -,204

Sig. (1-tailed) ,080 ,320 ,170

UNEM96Pearson Correlation ,180 -,125 ,168

Sig. (1-tailed) ,200 ,281 ,217

SPARSE95Pearson Correlation ,803 ,315 ,437

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,067 ,016

DENS95Pearson Correlation -,716 -,379 -,456

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,034 ,013

LNPOP Pearson Correlation -,799 -,380 -,436

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,034 ,017

FORCIT95Pearson Correlation -,764 -,362 -,512

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,041 ,005

LIFEM91Pearson Correlation -,191 ,552 -,120

Sig. (1-tailed) ,186 ,003 ,288

LIFEW91Pearson Correlation -,313 ,358 -,325

Sig. (1-tailed) ,068 ,043 ,061

NORTH Pearson Correlation ,497 -,047 ,474

Sig. (1-tailed) ,007 ,414 ,010

Note: For explanations and sources see the variable list

Table 9 confirms that the expected relationship between social capital and economic

or political development is absent in Sweden; with social capital actually greater in the

less developed regions. The social capital index correlates significantly with

sparseness of population, voting NO in the 1994 EU referendum and support for the

end of the use of nuclear energy in the 1980 referendum, and (negatively) with

indicators of wealth (tax capacity) and pluralism or postmodernity (proportion of

foreign citizens). This is not quite the case for library lending and study circle

participation, but both do significantly correlate with church attendance, an interesting

connection to which we shall return.

From Figure 3 it is evident that social capital is strongest in more sparsely populated

areas like in Gotland (I) and Jämtland (Z). This relationship holds true even if more

extreme cases like Stockholm, Jämtland and Gotland are disregarded. (This

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phenomenon may also be linked to the above noted new wave of rural community

organizing (Bygderörelsen) as an expression of social capital in the sparsely populated

areas of Sweden.) Related to population density is "post-modernization”, for which a

large presence of foreign citizens serves as our key indicator.

FIGURE 3: about here

In Figure 4, we see that the spacial pattern for library lending in the 1990s is

somewhat similar. Book lending is lowest in Stockholm (AB) but tends to be high in

some of the southern counties like Halland (N), Kalmar (H) and Kronoberg (G), as

well as Västerbotten (AC) in the north. Variation in library lending matches most

closely the variation in church attendance. Church attendance also covaries somewhat

with study circle participation in the 1990s (Figure 5). (Church attendance, as we shall

see, tends to be quite stable over time in terms of its spatial variation.) It is highest in

regions in Småland (Kalmar, Kronoberg and Jönköping) but also in parts of Norrland

(Västerbotten), and distinctively lower in Stockholm (AB) and Södermanland (D).

Covariation is not quite as strong as with library lending, since we have cases with

high study circle participation and low church attendance – Gävleborg (X) - as well as

low study circle participation and relatively high church attendance – Kristianstad (L).

FIGURES 4-5: about here

We find a better match between study circle participation and the no-vote on EU

(Figure 6). The match is, however, not perfect since the leading no-vote region

Jämtland (Z) has quite a low level of study circle participation; again we note that the

two distinctively contrasting cases are the regions of Västerbotten (AC) and

Stockholm (AB).

FIGURE 6: about here

To summarize the findings from the 1990s, we may say that social capital as measured

by our social capital index has some distinctive contexts; social capital is strong in the

more traditional modern regions of Sweden and weak in the more wealthy

postmodernized regions. We can now explore what happens to this pattern when the

time dimension is brought into consideration.

Table 10 below presents the bivariate correlations for social capital and different

contexts in the 1980s. In general, the pattern displayed for the 1990s reappears in the

1980s This is particularly true for the social capital index (SOCAP85) but less so for

library lending and study circle participation rates. However, church attendance

remains significantly related to these two indicators.

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Table 10 : Social capital and contextual variables: 1980s (N=24)

SOCAP85 LIB86 STUDYC86

BRP185Pearson Correlation -,701 -,427 -,099

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,019 ,323

TAXP85Pearson Correlation -,821 -,422 -,076

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,020 ,363

SAL90 Pearson Correlation -,750 -,331 -,163

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,057 ,224

CHATT85Pearson Correlation ,676 ,409 ,338

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,024 ,053

FREE85Pearson Correlation ,252 -,250 ,172

Sig. (1-tailed) ,117 ,120 ,211

SVOTE85Pearson Correlation ,241 -,127 ,126

Sig. (1-tailed) ,128 ,277 ,278

VVOTE85Pearson Correlation -,223 -,420 ,178

Sig. (1-tailed) ,148 ,020 ,203

LINE3 Pearson Correlation ,583 -,257 ,245

Sig. (1-tailed) ,001 ,112 ,124

EUNO94Pearson Correlation ,667 -,266 ,146

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,105 ,248

EMP87 Pearson Correlation -,402 -,122 -,089

Sig. (1-tailed) ,026 ,286 ,339

UNEM87Pearson Correlation ,066 -,039 -,074

Sig. (1-tailed) ,380 ,428 ,365

SPARSE85Pearson Correlation ,896 ,281 ,157

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,092 ,233

DENS85Pearson Correlation -,833 ,185 -,205

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,194 ,168

LNPOP Pearson Correlation -,854 -,415 -,181

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,022 ,199

FORCIT85Pearson Correlation -,879 -,127 -,099

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,276 ,323

LIFEM81Pearson Correlation ,210 ,463 -,041

Sig. (1-tailed) ,162 ,011 ,425

LIFEW81Pearson Correlation -,127 ,471 -,199

Sig. (1-tailed) ,277 ,010 ,176

NORTH Pearson Correlation ,411 -,321 ,246

Sig. (1-tailed) ,023 ,063 ,124

Note: For explanations and sources see the variable list

Hence, there is a clear continuity when we produce charts for the 1980s similar to

those for the 1990s, i.e. social capital and sparsely populated regions (Figure 7), and

church attendance and library lending and study circle participation (Figures 8 and 9).

FIGURES 7-9: about here

This is not quite the case when we go back to the 1970s. In Table 11 we report the

corresponding bivariate correlations for the 1970s to those in Tables 9 and 10. While

there is in general a similar pattern for the social capital index - one even stronger for

church attendance, there are differences, especially in the variables capturing the

social democratic vote. Most interesting is the difference in relative rates of library

lending and study circle participation, and, in particular, the fact that while church

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attendance was positively correlated with library lending in the 1980s and the 1990s

the correlation is negative in the 1970s.

Table 11: Social capital and contextual variables: the 1970s (N=24)

SOCAP75 LIB76 STUDYC75

BRP185Pearson Correlation -,707 ,109 ,116

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,305 ,294

TAXP75Pearson Correlation -,865 ,223 ,146

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,148 ,248

SAL90 Pearson Correlation -,720 ,236 ,214

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,133 ,157

CHATT80Pearson Correlation ,648 -,420 ,183

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,020 ,196

FREE74Pearson Correlation ,359 -,326 ,168

Sig. (1-tailed) ,043 ,060 ,216

SVOTE76Pearson Correlation -,108 ,164 -,067

Sig. (1-tailed) ,307 ,221 ,378

VVOTE76Pearson Correlation -,331 -,034 ,272

Sig. (1-tailed) ,057 ,438 ,100

LINE3 Pearson Correlation ,625 -,444 ,067

Sig. (1-tailed) ,001 ,015 ,378

EUNO94Pearson Correlation ,488 -,489 -,148

Sig. (1-tailed) ,008 ,008 ,244

EMP76 Pearson Correlation -,345 ,208 ,312

Sig. (1-tailed) ,050 ,164 ,069

UNEM76Pearson Correlation -,020 -,040 -,168

Sig. (1-tailed) ,464 ,427 ,216

SPARSE75Pearson Correlation ,895 -,333 -,133

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,056 ,267

DENS75Pearson Correlation -,778 ,250 ,030

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,119 ,444

LNPOP Pearson Correlation -,841 ,133 ,019

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,268 ,465

FORCIT75Pearson Correlation -,825 ,463 ,207

Sig. (1-tailed) ,000 ,011 ,166

LIFEM71Pearson Correlation ,112 ,019 -,080

Sig. (1-tailed) ,301 ,465 ,356

LIFEW71Pearson Correlation -,135 ,128 ,115

Sig. (1-tailed) ,265 ,275 ,296

NORTH Pearson Correlation ,274 -,317 -,080

Sig. (1-tailed) ,097 ,065 ,355

Note: For explanation and sources: see the variable list

Below we reproduce charts for the 1970s similar to those for the other decades. The

social capital index covaries with sparsely populated areas to a large extent in the

same way as in the 1990s and the 1980s: the contrasting regions are Gotland (I),

Jämtland (Z) and Västerbotten (AC) on the one hand and Stockholm (AB) on the

other hand (Figure 10), and roughly the same regions represent the contrasting cases

with respect to foreign citizen presence. (Note that foreign presence was still strong in

industrial areas like Västmanland (U) and Södermanland (D) in the 1970s.)

FIGURE 10: in about here

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Figure 11 displays the changes that have occurred with respect to library lending

practices. Regions like Halland, Kronoberg, Västerbotten and Kalmar singificantly

improved their ranking after the 1970s; while the opposite was the case for regions

such as Uppsala (C), Västmanland (U), and Södermanland (D). Indeed, Stockholm

(AB) ranked higher than Västerbotten (AC) in 1970. Hence the negative relationship

between library lending and church attendance in the 1970s.

A less dramatic shift in the same direction can be seen in Figure 12 which displays the

relationship between church attendance and study circle participation. The relative

position of regions has remained steady in church attendance but not study circle

participation. In the 1970s, study circle participation was already highest in

Västerbotten (AC), but Gävleborg (X) still ranked low and Stockholm (AC) was still

in solid position in the middle of the field.

FIGURES 11-12: about here

7. Discussion of the findings

Our most important general finding is that in Sweden social capital tends to be found

in the less developed regions - in contrast, it would appear, to other countries studied.

Since institutional performance is understood to reflect economic and political

development, we are confronted with findings quite different from those usually

drawn from the literature. While it would be far-fetched to suggest that social capital

impedes economic and political development, we can reasonably advance the

agrument that at the current stage of economic and political development, the

transition from modern to post-modern society, further development reduces social

capital.

Such a conclusion poses a number of questions. The first type of questions are

methodological. Can it be said that the findings are in fact an artifact of the variables

chosen and indices created? When arriving at the indeces for social capital and

institutional performance we have at least avoided the mistake of not selecting factors

meeting the Kaiser criterion (cf Jackman and Miller 1996, 638-40). One possibility in

this regard is, however, that the population based development indicators used here

are especially sensitive to indicators of social capital based on individual/per capita

measures. Yet, while it is true that newspaper reading and density of sports

organizations strongly correlates with population size, this is not the case for some

other population based indicators such as library lending, study circle participation,

and church attendance. Thus, we can be confident that social capital and institutional

performance captures something other than population size or distribution.

Substantive questions that must be posed revolve around the uniqueness of Swedish

patterns of development. We know, from the World Values Survey and elsewhere,

that Sweden has for many years had among the very highest levels of organizational

participation and lowest levels of religious involvement. Could it not therefore be that

similar data in other countries would reveal quite different spacial patterns? While we

are in no position to rule out this possibility, we suggest, rather, that it is more likely

that Sweden in fact reflects an emerging trend: a country moving from a modern

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society into a post-modern society, with values, attitudes and behaviour associated

with social capital strongest in regions that have been slowest to move in this

direction. While testing such a hypothesis is well beyond the scope of a paper such as

this, what we can do is see how it might fit into the wider discussion of social capital

set out at the beginning of this paper.

Returning to our data, we note that while library lending and study circle participation

show a negative relationship with institutional peformance and development, the

relationship is not statistically significant over the entire three decades, as it is for our

social-capital index (combining sport organisations, newspaper reading, contacts with

neighbours and political involvement). More to the point, institutional performance is

positively related to library lending and study circle participation, in the 1970s. How

are we to explain this? A clue lies in the relationship between these indicators and

church attendance. While in the 1980s and 1990s, church attendance had become

quite strongly correlated with all the factors related to social capital; in the 1970s it

was only very weakly linked to study circle participation and quite strongly negatively

associated with library lending. (We place less weight on the former, since it is

possible that the relationship between study circle participation and church attendance

is affected by a larger number of church-linked study circles in regions of high church

attendance – Västerbotten in particular.)

Borrowing books and participating in study circles are expressions of a particular

dimension of social capital that we have termed civic literacy, one that we can

associate with modern society and threatened by the arrival of post-modern society.

We know that the modernization process, in Sweden as elsewhere, is one in which

civic literacy forms of social capital gain importance gradually replacing the pre-

modern forms of social capital linked to church attendance. Can it be that, ironically,

once the modern, civic literacy forms of social capital begin to weaken under post-

modern influences, social capital again becomes more dependent upon traditional

forms of participation in the Church and associated institutions?

This discussion is less esoteric than it may appear since an important aspect of the

critical debate around Putnam's contention of declining social capital in America in

fact concerns participation in religion-based activities and orgnanizations. Putnam

(1993: 107) states that organized religion, at least in Catholic Italy, is "an alternative

to civic community, not part of it.” Uslaner (1998) contends that this is not the case in

the United States where, on balance, religion has the opposite effect. Greeley directly

attacks Putnam, citing the results of the World Values Survey to contend that religious

organization membership and church attendance are strong predictors of volunteer

service (Greeley 1997, see also Ladd 1996). Gabriel (1995), using other data,

concludes that the impact of religion on social capital in Europe is mixed, a

combination of what we might term the American and Italian effects: religious

organizations can and do isolate members from the wider community, as well as foster

civic engagement.

How do our findings fit into this discussion? Our suggestion that in post-modern

regions of Sweden, social capital may be more closely tied to Church attendance than

in those still in the modern period, should not be taken to mean that Stockholmers are

likely to rediscover religious practices abandoned decades ago. The point is rather a

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wider one: While Sweden and the United States are among the leaders in the process

of post-modernization, they are polar opposites among OECD countries in the overall

importance of religion. Moreover, we have tended to see the US as the outlier, defying

the universal trend toward secularisation. Could it be that our views reflect a

modernization process that is now giving way to another process, that of post-

modernization? Could it be that, rather than a throwback to an earlier period, the

reliance upon Church based activities to keep up the declining stock of social capital

in the United States may be a harbinger of things yet to come in other post-

modernizing societies?

Appendix 1: Map and names of the counties/regions

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Appendix 2: Variable list

BRP185 gross regional product 1985: salary: current prices (Sundgren 1998: Table 3)

BRP191 gross regional product 1991: salary: current prices (Sundgren 1998: Table 3)

BRP95 gross regional product 1995: Sweden = 100 (SCB 1998, Norrbottenskansliet: p.6)

CHATT80 church attendance 1980 (Religionssociologiska institutet 1981)

CHATT85 church attendance 1985 (Gustafsson 1986)

CHATT92 church attendance 1992 (Alwall 1993)

DAILY75 % (no) daily newspaper reading 1975 (SCB 1987a: ULF Rapport 51: Table 8.6)

DAILY85 % (no) daily newspaper reading 1985 (SCB 1987a: ULF Rapport 51: Table 8.6)

DAILY95 % daily newspaper reading 1995 (SCB 1997a: ULF Rapport 91: Table 23.2)

DENS75 population per sq km 1975 (SCB 1975: Årsbok)

DENS85 population per sq km 1985 (SCB 1985a: Årsbok)

DENS95 population per sq km 1995 (SCB 1995a: Årsbok)

EMP76 employed in % of lab force 1976 (SCB 1977a: AKU)

EMP87 employed in % of lab force 1987 (SCB 1988a: AKU)

EMP96 employed in % of lab force 1996 (SCB 1997c: AKU)

EUNO94 % voting no in eu referendum 1994 (SCB 1995b)

FORCIT75 foreign citizens in % of population 1975 (SCB 1978)

FORCIT85 foreign citizens in % of population 1985 (SCB 1988b)

FORCIT95 foreign citizens in % of population 1995 (SCB 1996c)

FREE74 membership in free churches in % of population 1974 (Religionssociologiska

institutet 1978)

FREE85 membership in free churches in % of population 1985 (Skog 1986)

FREE95 membership in free churches in % of population 1995 (Skog 1997)

LIB76 library lending per capita 1976 (SCB 1994b)

LIB86 library lending per capita 1986 (SCB 1987b)

LIB96 library lending per capita 1996 (SCB 1997d)

LIFEEM71 life expectancy at birth for men 1971 (SCB 1998a)

LIFEEM81 life expectancy at birth for men 1981 (SCB 1998a)

LIFEEM91 life expectancy at birth for men 1991 (SCB 1998a)

LIFEEW71 life expectancy at birth for women 1971 (SCB 1998a)

LIFEEW81 life expectancy at birth for women 1981 (SCB 1998a)

LIFEEW91 life expectancy at birth for women 1991 (SCB 1998a)

LINE3 % voting for an early end of the use of nuclear energy in the 1980 referendum (SCB

1980c)

LNPOP natural logarithm of population in 1995 (SCB 1996c)

NEIG75 % (no) contacts with neighbours 1975 (SCB 1987a, ULF Rapport 51: Table 9.6)

NEIG85 % (no) contacts with neighbours 1985 (SCB 1987a, ULF Rapport 51: Table 9.6)

NEIG95 % contacts with neighbours 1995 (SCB 1997a, ULF Rapport 91: Table 23.2)

NEWSP97 newspaper/household (Tidningsstatistik 1997)

NORTH dummy (1=X,Y,Z,AC,BD; 0=else)

POLACT75 % politically active 1975 (SCB 1979, ULF Rapport 19:1: Table 9)

POLACT85 % politically active 1985 (SCB 1987a, ULF Rapport 51: Table 10.7)

POLACT95 % politically active 1995 (SCB 1997a, ULF Rapport 91: Table 23.2)

RURAL95 number of local deevlopment groups in relation to number of communities with 50-

2000 inhabitants (Herlitz 1998: 20)

SAL9098 %-change in salary sum from 1990 to 1998 (Affärsvärlden 2000)

SAL90 salary sum per capita 1990 (Affärsvärlden 2000)

SAL98 salary sum per capita 1998 (Affärsvärlden 2000)

SPARSE75 % of population living in sparsely populated areas1975 (SCB 1980d, Årsbok)

SPARSE85 % of population living in sparsely populated areas1985 (SCB 1986b, Årsbok)

SPARSE95 % of population living in sparsely populated areas1995 (SCB 1999b, Statistisk

årsbok)

SPORT75 sport associations per capita 1975 (SCB 1978, Statistisk årsbok)

SPORT85 sport associations per capita 1985 (SCB 1988b, Statistisk årsbok)

SPORT96 sport associations per capita 1996 (SCB 1996c, Statistsk årsbok)

SPORT99 % of population regularly sporting in 1999 (Västerbottens-Kuriren 2000)

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STUDYC75 study circle participation per capita 1975 (SCB 1977c)

STUDYC86 study circle participation per capita 1986 (SCB 1987d)

STUDYC96 study circle participation per capita 1996 (SCB 1997e)

SVOTE76 sap vote in % in parliamentary election 1976 (SCB 1977d, Allmänna valen: del 1)

SVOTE85 sap vote in % in parliamentary election 1985 (SCB 1986c, Allmänna valen: del 1)

SVOTE94 sap vote in % in parliamentary election 1994 (SCB 1995c, Allmänna valen: del 1)

TAXP75 tax capacity per capita 1975: indexed prices (SCB 1996b, Årsbok)

TAXP85 tax capacity per capita 1985: indexed prices (SCB 1996b, Årsbok)

TAXP95 tax capacity per capita 1995: indexed prices (SCB 1996b, Årsbok)

TOT95 service index : total index (Svenska kommunförbundet 1997: Table 8)

UNEM76 % unemployed (SCB 1977a: AKU)

UNEM87 % unemployed (SCB 1988a: AKU)

UNEM96 % unemployed (SCB 1997c: AKU)

UNHEA index of % incapacitated 1993-1998 (Riksförsäkringsverket 1995, 1997, 1999))

VVOTE76 vpk vote in % in parliamentary election 1976 (SCB 1977d, Allmänna valen: del 1)

VVOTE85 vpk vote in % in parliamentary election 1985 (SCB 1986c, Allmänna valen: del 1)

VVOTE94 v vote in % in parliamentary election 1994 (SCB 1995c, Allmänna valen: del 1)

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Figure 1: Social capital and institutional performance in the 1990s

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Figure 2: Study circle participation and public service presence in the 1990s

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Figure 3: Sparsely populated areas and social capital in the 1990s

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Figure 4: Church attendance and library lending in the 1990s

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Figure 5: Church attendance and study circle participation in the 1990s

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Figure 6: EU-critical vote and study circle participation

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Figure 7: Sparsely populated areas and social capital in the 1980s

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Figure 8: Church attendance and library lending in the 1980s

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Figure 9: Church attendance and study circle participation in the 1980s

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Figure 10: Sparsely populated areas and social capital in the 1970s

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Figure 11: Church attendance and library lending in the 1970s

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Figure 12: Church attendance and study circle participation in the 1970s

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