social change: the 1975-1989 birth cohort: evidence from the bhps
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Social Change: The 1975-1989 birth cohort: Evidence from the BHPS. BSA Conference Cardiff 17th April 2009 Susan Murray, University of Stirling. Contextual background. Growing up in the 1990s Changes in the early 21 st century Persistent inequality Intragenerational movement - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
SOCIAL CHANGE: THE 1975-1989 BIRTH COHORT: EVIDENCE FROM THE BHPSBSA Conference Cardiff
17th April 2009
Susan Murray, University of Stirling
17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff
17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff
Contextual background
Growing up in the 1990s Changes in the early 21st century Persistent inequality Intragenerational movement Intergenerational movement
21st century transitions
17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff
‘Sociologists of youth are generally in agreement that the background against
which young people grew up in the closing decades of the twentieth century was
transformed, and is now radically different from earlier decades’ (Gayle, Lambert, Murray
forthcoming)
Characteristics of unweighted sample of rising 16s
17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff
Gender n %
Male 1193 53.33
Female 1044 46.67
Ethnicity
White (UK) 2043 91.33
Black-Caribbean/ Black-other 22 0.98
Black-African 12 0.54
Indian 31 1.39
Pakistani/ Bangladeshi 23 1.03
Other 54 2.41
Missing 52 2.32
Qualifications
Any GCSEs at 16 (A-C) 1388 62.05
Any GCSEs at 16 (D-G) 1320 59.01
GCSEs 5+ at 16 (A-C) 1215 54.31
Source: BHPS waves 1-16 rising 16s
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Constant 3.06(0.20) 2.68(0.21) 2.78(0.22) 4.33(0.34) 4.89(0.10) 3.59(0.22) 4.34(0.36) 4.55 (0.35) 4.56(0.35)
Gender (Girls) - 0.97(0.19) 1.03(0.19) 0.95(0.19) - - 0.94(0.19) 0.90(0.19) 0.89(0.19)
Ethnicity
Black Carib/Black-other
- - - - - - - -1.04(1.83)
-1.04(1.83)
Black African - - - - - - - -0.30(1.38)
-0.30(1.38)
Indian - - - - - - - 0.96(0.84)
0.96(0.84)
Pakistani/Bangladeshi - - - - - - - 0.21(1.16)
0.21(1.16)
Other minority - - - - - - - -0.19(0.62)
-0.19(0.62)
Family stratification(Cam Scale) MRJ
0.04(0.01)
0.04(0.01)
0.03(0.01)
0.03(0.01)
- 0.04(0.01)
0.02(0.01)
0.02(0.01)
-
Tenure (Social renters) - - - - -2.53(0.31)
-1.91(0.32)
-1.57(0.32)
-1.51(0.32)
-1.51(0.32)
Parent’s education
Mum graduate - - 1.03(0.34)
- - - 0.49(0.36)
- -
Dad graduate - - 0.93(0.35)
- - - 0.53(0.38)
- -
Mum qualified - - - -0.76(0.22)
- - -0.81(0.22)
-0.95(0.20)
-0.95(0.20)
Dad qualified - - - -1.05(0.20)
- - -0.47(0.24)
-0.63(0.22)
-0.63(0.22)
Gender*class interaction
- - - - - - - - 0.01
(0.003)
Adj R2 0.047 0.063 0.074 0.086 0.042 0.069 0.101 0.098 0.098
N 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500
17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff
Employment Status Family Class Model 1 Model 2
Current Managerial/Technical -.7887*
Skilled non-manual -.9418*
skilled manual -1.854***
partly skilled manual -2.623***
unskilled -2.267**
Most Recent Managerial/Technical -1.095**
Skilled non-manual -1.378***
skilled manual -2.209***
partly skilled manual -2.876***
unskilled -2.453**
Constant 5.901*** 6.239***
N 1471 1471
r2 0.03961 0.04642
r2_a 0.03633 0.04316
Logliklihood -4038 -4033
bic 8120 8109
Multiple regression models for number of A*-C GCSEs comparing employment status for the Registrar General Social Classification
Source: BHPS waves 1-16; subsample of the ‘rising 16s’.
17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff
Mean number of A*-C GCSE grades per school leaving year
17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff
34
56
mgc
sea_
c2
1990 1995 2000 2005June Year 11 - school leaving year indicator
Mean number of A*-C GCSE grades per school leaving year (with confidence intervals)
17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff
23
45
67
1990 1995 2000 2005June Year 11 - school leaving year indicator
mgcsea_c2 lower/upper
Quasi Variance for school year
17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff
-10
12
34
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
School Year-end compulsory education
Regression estimate 95% conf intervalsRegression estimate 95% QV comp interval
Source: BHPS Rising 16s 1991-2005, n=1760.Model 1: Regression estimating 'Number of GCSE Passes A-C'.
Number of GCSE Passes A-C Year 11by School Year
Figures for pupils gaining 5+ A*-C GCSE grades
17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff
Year on year rising 16 results compared with national figures
All pupils
Rising 16s
%
National Figures
%
1991 46.0(36-56) 36.8
1992 62.3(55-70) 38.3
1993 48.7(42-56) 41.2
1994 63.8(56-72) 43.3
1995 43.1(35-51) 43.5
1996 55.4(48-63) 44.5
1997 52.4(44-60) 45.1
1998 50.5(41-60) 46.3
1999 59.1(52-66) 47.9
2000 56.3(49-63) 49.2
2001 61.3(55-68) 50.0
2002 59.1(52-66) 51.6
2003 67.1(60-74) 52.9
2004 47.6(41-54) 53.7
2005 53.0(46-60) 56.3
Source: BHPS waves 1-16; 95% CI around proportion in brackets
Source: http://www.bstubbs.co.uk/5a-c.htm
Logit
17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff
-1-.
50
.5
profesnl manager/techn skilled nonman skilled manual partly skilled unskilled
Class RG - Most recent job
Logit prediction 95% conf intervalsLogit prediction 95% QV comp interval
Source: BHPS Rising 16s 1991-2005, n=1635.Model 1: Logistic regression predicting '5+ GCSE Passes A-C'.
Prediction of 5+ GCSE Passes A-C Year 11by RG parental class
Process
17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff
To move away from the common outcomes of destination and focus on process, direction and the tracks and trajectories of young people early on in their careers.
Outcome variables
17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff
Eligibility for HE/FE Participation in post-16 education Early labour market outcomes (first,
current, last) Combination of labour market outcomes
and educational attainment Predicted trajectories
School year
Plans not to stay in education (n)
Plans to stay in education(n) Total (n)
1995 33 74 107
1996 32 132 164
1997 25 98 123
1998 31 73 104
1999 24 114 138
2000 26 93 119
2001 31 125 156
2002 16 112 128
2003 14 106 120
2004 30 131 161
2005 38 103 141
Total 300 1,161 1,461
Back to the future: Youth Panel
17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff
Rising 16s: five years on (%)Status at 21
91
92
93
94
95
96
97 98 99 00 01 02
Employed 60.9
50.7
48.6
49.2
58.0
49.3
47.1 56.7 48.1 48.9 39.3 48.6
Unemployed
7.8 6.5 5.0 9.5 3.4 12.5
4.2 11.1 3.8 5.3 14.1 8.5
Fulltime student
28.2
37.0
41.4
34.9
31.9
34.6
44.5 25.6 43.1 38.9 33.3 37.3
Other 3.2 5.8 5.0 6.4 6.7 3.7 4.2 6.7 5.0 6.9 13.3 5.6
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Research funded by the ESRC
Many thanks.
17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff