social unrest and basic food shortages

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The Likelihood of Civil Unrest within the Food Chain; Basic Food Shortages & Price

Increases

Civil disturbances and conflict in areas where food shortages are found is becoming a concern of

governments and organisations and although conflict is usually related to price rises due to a shortage in

basic foods, there are other or underlying reasons that may cause or add to these conflicts. However, the

possible links between food and terrorism are beginning to give concern to organisations and government

departments and the potential of these increasing must be addressed.

In normal market situations, basic or cultural foods are very important in maintaining a calm

atmosphere in communities and it is usually within the poorer sector of communities where these

problems are growing. In areas where rice and maize are the staple food resources any permanent shortor medium term shortages leave these communities at risk from social unrest. It is very important to

make note of the cultural importance of some foods and shortages may create emotional reactions

towards suppliers or against those that are seen to be the cause of a shortage (HIV/Aids patients

migrants etc). However, it is a government that is generally blamed for these shortages, whereas other

factors have important influences in any given situation. It is true to say that governments should be able

to plan better and create stocks that would cover immediate shortages, although they may have no

control over long-term shortages.

There is growing competition for the basic foods and commercial interests that have cash available

can dominate the general food chain in the wholesale and retail markets. Added to this, the livestock

industry also competes for the basic foods, as the livestock feed processors support a vast industry andprocessing allows high profits to be generated and this at the cost to the human food chain.

Main users: General consumers (wholesale and retail),

Livestock feed industry,

Relief support agencies.

Competition from bio-fuel processors does remove basic foods from the general market although

this tends to be limited to certain areas. Time will probably show that the influence of the bio-fuel industry

will decline in direct food crops, although the production of food crops may be affected by land being taken

out of food production for non-food bio-fuel crops. The present state of the fossil fuel markets further adds

to the probability that bio-fuel crops will decline and with a major potential of oil in Uganda, bio-fuel crops

in Africa will go out of fashion. However, crops taken out of the commercial food chain for bio-fue

production do have an effect on high street prices of food.

At the heart these problems has to be the production and distribution of the basic foods that

communities rely on and to date, few countries have been able to ensure food security and this is

worrying for communities that find themselves short of the basics. As was stated in Indonesia, If students

demonstrate its not a worry, but if hungry people take to the streets, now thats dangerous. And, in time,

Social Unrest and Food Shortages

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more communities will take to the streets in protests against food price increases and the internationa

umbrella organisations will be unable to resolve immediate problems.

In 2007 the USDA Economic Research Service produced a report on food stocks to use ratios and

this has given an insight into the probable supply of the most basic foods and links this to price volatility

and the graph for wheat, maize and soya is produced below. With many competing for these basic foods,

it is only the cash rich societies that will be able to maintain healthy diet structures and this in turn heralds

bad times for the poorest.

Areas where conflict is seen promotes mobilisation of communities and these migrate to other

areas where they perceive that work and food may be available, although fleeing a conflict area is

paramount. Host governments may have little control of these situations, as humanitarian needs replacepolitical needs and host governments have few options other than to provide primary support to fleeing

migrants.

Mobilisation in itself will promote protectionism, with richer governments ensuring that their own

populations are catered for, before attempting to assist those that are in need and this will lead to more

localised civil unrest and attract the attention of anti-authoritarian groups to give support and make

political capital from these situations. Whether or not these civil disturbances will lead to the fall of

governments is yet to be seen; but this is a likely scenario.

For many generations, economic and seasonal migration has been a part of community life, where

economic migrants have taken advantage of employment available to support family needs. Agriculture

has generally benefitted from seasonal migrants, using the labour available as befits the needs. Likewise

the mining and engineering industries have benefitted from a floating labour market; both in terms o

labour availability and maintaining low labour costs. The problems arise where seasonal migrants

compete for work, replace local workers and at lower costs and this, in time of food shortages, causes

conflict. When adding conflict migrants to this scenario, competition for employment becomes greater and

thus the ability of local workers to provide for their families becomes harder.


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Added to the above, the influence of the wholesale food market is great and dominated by

supermarkets that have the financial power to bulk buy and bulk retail. They also in part, control the food

processing industry for pre-packaged foods within their supermarkets. Where these supermarkets contro

both the processing and retailing sectors, the poorer sector of the community is left out of part of the food

chain and social unrest can follow. Added to this, supermarkets are no longer national and thus they have

increased their purchasing power on world commodity markets and it is in the commercial interest of

supermarkets to dominate the food market.

In many developing countries the food production industry is far behind the needs of the increasingpopulations and this cannot be corrected in the short-term and even with high level investment in

agricultural production, little change will be seen for many years. Agriculture cannot respond to fashions in

the high street outlets, as planning and implementing of agricultural development takes many years to

achieve.

Raising some of the questions asked about food related civil unrest:

Are food price increases responsible for civil unrest and are food prices likely to cause future conflicts, or

are there other factors contributing to this; are politics a cause?

Food and water are basic necessities that relates to everyday survival, whereas political electionsare a generally voluntary activity and thus related to personal decisions, whereas the provision ofbasic foods is obligatory for breadwinners. Thus, the price of basic foods will trigger greater

conflicts, be these local civil unrest, to movements that gather pace, often in a political contextThere are times when other grievances add to the food related civil disturbances and these are

often regarding lack of employment in order to earn an income to buy food. These are often

targeted towards economic and conflict migrants in the first instance and can grow from that point.To some extent there are religious factors affecting civil disturbances, but these, at this time are

not yet fully significant. In this, religious leaders could affect the attitude of those affected by


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shortages and price increases. Some churches are involved with food distribution to those in need,

although they, like others are dependent on external sources for food supplies or cash in order to

respond to these needs. The church led food programmes have led to some jealousies but at this

time, there has been no civil disturbance related to these distribution programmes.[In Indonesia, a retired general recently warned: If students demonstrate its not aworry, but if hungry people take to the streets, now thats dangerous.]

Do food price increases affect other conflict issues or do other conflict issues exacerbate conflict over food

price increases and what, if any do other factors underlie these conflict issues?At this time the price of basic foods has little concern to the middle and upper classes ocommunities, as they usually have the spending power to be able to ignore small upwardmovements in food prices. On the other hand in the poorer communities, food prices (and relative

quality to price) are a daily issue and any increase in food prices results in either less basic food

being purchased or lower quality basic food being acquired. With up to 70% of the income oimpoverished families being used for food purchases, food has an overriding importance in their

daily lives and as many countries have found, food prices has become an important issue; with

riots and fatalities found. With the growing number of impoverished people increasing cividisturbances are also likely to increase.

There are definite underlying issues related to food shortages and price increases and these can bedirectly attributed to economic and conflict migrants. This may also relate to urban stress issues

where free food support is given to some sectors of a community, whilst others are left out

HIV/Aids patients, the elderly and orphans are seen as most deserving by outsiders and this maynot reflect the opinion of insiders.Whilst disturbances over food shortages make headlines, affecting individual groups of people

disturbances over drinking water go unreported and yet, drinking water problems affect morepeople than do food shortages. Potable water resources are part of the food chain and although

there are no mass civil disturbances related to food shortages; in communities there are oftenoutbreaks of minor violence at water stations. The inability of local governments to provide

adequate supplies of potable water may lead to more disturbances as this problem grows. In manyof the shanty towns water outlets are privately owned or public outlets have been hijacked by local

entrepreneurs and charges are made per bowl or bucket of water extracted.It seems strange that there are few mass civil disturbances over safe drinking water shortages

and it should be determined if those affected by long-term water shortages have learned to withless daily intake of water.

How is it possible to respond to the need to control outbreaks of conflict over food price increases and shouldthese conflicts be treated the same as other conflicts?

In any conflict over food prices, there is an overriding factor to be taken into consideration. Those

in conflict are short of basic foods and usually unemployed or underemployed and cannot competedue to lack of skills or employment opportunity. Those seeking to control food related conflicts are

well fed, be these the political leaders or the civil forces that have to control situations. Providing

employment through government sponsored community improvement works may help to resolvesome of these issues. Areas where physical civil disturbances are seen are usually the poorest

areas; shanty towns etc, where the majority of the unemployed are resident and the physicallyunfit also reside.

Well informed provincial and regional governments should be the first line of the ability to respond

to food and water shortages, keeping central governments informed in order that they may be ableto put in place measures to be able to respond to a given situation. Forward planning and basicstocks is part of the proactive responsibility of governments in areas where civil unrest could

develop.

Does the use of the word conflict create an incorrect overview of the situations and what should be the

political and legal responses to these conflicts and does political instability affect the situation?


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With reference to food, political instability is the first to be blamed, although the politicians have no

control over the day-to-day food availability. Increasingly, demands on governments to respond to

emergency relief situations takes basic foods out of the general market and this could have aneffect. Social disturbances could be the prime term used and governments have been slow to

recognise the early signs of these and civil disturbance can lead to conflict. An increase inincidences of crop stealing should be able to alert governments to a rising situation, although other

indicators are required. It should be a simple enough exercise to create a monitoring system anddatabase to be able to help to predict civil unrest as a consequence of food shortages and price

rises, with concentration on the seasonal risks involved. Crop theft is a rising problem throughout

Africa and Asia and landowners are responding with violence to these problems and this violence inturn, can exacerbate a given situation. The majority of these land owner related incidences mostlyremain unreported and are seen to be local problems and thus, governments are largely unaware

of the significance of the problem. Crop theft is predominantly seasonal, being found in the latterstages of a dry season prior to harvest.

The rise in on farm and high street security is largely in the hands of private companies andthere is little control over these activities. Added to this, those that are employed within the private

security companies are untrained and often provided with firearms, against the wishes of the legaauthorities. This is being seen in western countries also, in supermarkets and general stores and is

an indicator that food theft is globally on the rise, although the private companies used are moredisciplined than those in developing countries.

There is a case to be made for categorising conflict depending on the level of conflict odisturbance noted in many of the areas outside of the main urban areas. Police records in areas

outside of the main centres will show very few disturbances or conflicts over food or water supplies,as these are localised and are not reported as very few police patrol these areas. Where there are

areas where possible conflicts might be seen, the presence of the police is greater and thus, there

will be a higher level of reporting. Consequently, there is a disproportionate level of reportingwhereas in the rural areas there may be more incidents but these are not reported. These incidents

flare up and die down quickly, whereas in the central areas, these incidents are slow to flare, but

last longer due to the depth of feeling against migrants and possible political involvement.

Is it possible to distinguish certain types that are more likely to be involved in civil disturbances over food

shortages / price increases?

This looks are those who are greatest risk of becoming involved in civil disturbances over food

shortages / price increases and in some way, this could be related to regions of the world and thus,

localised.

There are and have always been groups that migrate and these can be loosely described as

seasonal migrants, economic migrants and conflict migrants and food has a link with all of these.

Seasonal economic migrants : For many centuries there have been seasonal migrants

traditionally following food or employment opportunities and some economies have relied on these

However, seasonal migrants return to a home base after having completed the migration

Agriculture has relied on migrants at planting and harvesting times and seasonal migrants move

around areas in order to boost their income generation opportunity, to return home at the end of a

given season with the benefits accrued. Throughout Europe, Africa, America and Asia seasona

migration is accepted, as this benefits both migrants and employers. It could be seen that this formof migration is harmless but it is possible that those seeking to spread terrorism could take

advantage of the assumed harmlessness of the type of migration.

Permanent e conomic migrants : These migrants permanently leave stress areas where

employment opportunities are very limited and where, usually, there are few social services to

provide a cushion in times of economic stress. Many industries have utilised economic migrants to

the benefit business overheads, enabling these to reduce labour costs and pick up cheap labour as


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and when required. Industries such as mining, agriculture, fishing and others have benefitted from

these. There have been many concerns that it is probable that terrorists have infiltrated the

economic migrant system and have been able to set up cells in countries where they wish to

operate. Permanent migrants tend to move to an area where work is assumed to be available and

they stay around in the chance of work. If they get work, even for short-term, they settle amongst

other economic migrants and thus, extend shanty areas.

Economic migration has become big business throughout the world and this commercialisation is

of great concern to governments, creating illegal immigrants often gaining illegal access todeveloped countries, where due to being part of the underground they could become involved in

terrorist activities as means of gaining access to food.

Conflict migrants: Conflicts migrants are usually driven out of areas of violence during conflict

although many leave during the early signs of conflict in order to avoid becoming involved or

having to take sides. There is some concern that the conflict migrants may contain terrorists, using

the pretext of conflict to achieve sympathy and gain access to areas where they could possibly

operate to undermine authority.

Many parts of the world have conflict migrants and their experiences are generally the same

whereby local disturbances are noted because of the presence of conflict migrants. It is usually the

intervention of international organisations that provide support for migrants in areas of conflictalthough before the international organisations become involved, conflict arises for resources. It is

probable to surmise that some of those countries where conflict overflows boundaries, these

countries expect and wait for the international organisations to become involved and take over the

responsibility for the migrants.

In the economic crises of the first decade of the 21st century, economic and conflict migrants wil

add to the risk of civil disturbances throughout the developed counties, not necessarily directly

related to food, but the opportunity to earn an income being indirectly related to food.

[[Note: One governor that heads an at risk province agreed that a group ofcommunist activists within his province, use food shortages and price increases as a

political weapon against the authorities and that this group is a conduit for food

provisions to areas that they control.]]

Where in the overall picture does international terrorism fit in and if so, what is it possible to put in place to

combat this extended threat?

Without doubt, terrorism is directly or indirectly within the scenario of civil unrest regarding food

shortages and food price increases of the basic foods. Potential members of terrorist groups maynot, at first, be persuaded by the ideology of a group, but by being associated with a group, means

access to food and this is a means used by many anti-social groups. From this, it could be

suggested that governments cannot afford to allow food stocks to become critical for margina

groups, to reduce the potential of more joining radical movements. Another aspect of this is that

terrorist groups need supplies of food and it pays them to ensure that some of their supporters are

farmers or those that have access to food stocks.


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However, it is not only terrorists that use food as an attraction to join a group; as this is regularly

used by churches in areas of conflict to persuade conflict migrants to join a church. Both have a

similarity in such that food is the key to gaining support for a cause.

As can be seen from above, terrorism is now, in one way or another, linked with food resources /

availability and migration and it is probable that national and international security services are

unable to cover all aspects of this. This raises the questions of religious based terrorism or politica

based terrorism and in cases, where these have common characteristics.

Will the global economic problems of 2008/2009 provide a greater risk of conflict over food price increases?

On its own, no, but, without doubt the global economic problems of the first decade of the 21s

century will have a marked and possibly long-term effect on civil disturbances and it may well be

areas of the European Union where these disturbances will be seen to be most troubling

Developing countries are used to food shortages to some degree and have learned to tolerate

seasonal and other fluctuations and are less likely to be volatile in reaction and these countries are

also used to fluctuations in employment opportunity; whereas in Europe and the Americas many

years of a reasonable lifestyle has kept the majority fully employed and well fed due to good levels

of income.

The economic problems have affected every level of European societies that had had confidence in

the future and that saw their lifestyles improving over time. Now, a major loss of confidence in

governments or industries to be able to provide stable futures has increased tension ove

employment opportunity and thus, the ability to pay for homes and for maintaining lifestyles and

part of these lifestyles has been the provision of good food for their families. Added to this, the

perception may well be that dignities have been affected and this, on its own will lead to problems.

Parents that have been perceived as powerful breadwinners will be seen as failures by thei

children, thus adding to loss of dignity by the parent and a greater likelihood that the parent may

become politically involved in order to have a voice. Unions and subversive (a radical supporter of

political or social revolution) elements may well take advantage of perceived weaknesses of a

significant percentage of a population in order to effect or attempt change.

Protectionism by governments during the economic dilemmas will occur and this inevitably wil

cause international problems. At risk communities (social and professional) will demand access to

employment opportunities in order to fend for their macro and micro communities and this is an

area where security agencies will have to take the utmost care to control situations, as they arise.

Radical groups (including the mildest) will seek to take advantage of disturbances, although

becoming behind the scenes motivators for change.

That food prices in the European continent are reasonably low in comparison to incomes, the price

of foods, other than exceptional circumstances, will in themselves not cause civil disturbances but

will be part of arguments put forward to bolster disturbances. The main causes put forward will beemployment, protectionism and perceived dignity.

Daily forecasts of the long-term effect of the global economic situations frightens people and this

fear leads to irrational behaviour within group mentality and when western governments are seen

to support populations in areas of great stress, jealousies will arise followed by civil disturbances.

How much will protectionism affect the availability of basic food resources?


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Protectionism (whether overt or not) in economic crises is not unusual, although most would

surmise that this refers to industrial production and imports of non-essential products

Protectionism in food markets has already shown in some areas, where governments have banned

the exportation of some basic foods and this is likely to increase as governments will enforce bans

to protect against food riots.

This will lead to a split between high quality products and second quality products and rice is a

specific example of this. India has banned the export of prime quality rice. Japan cannot export its

second quality rice and there are other examples of variations of these. In the Philippines there isgreat concern about the amount of poor quality rice being imported and this shows that food

dumping is becoming more commonplace.

However, the necessity of some countries to create foreign currency income may lead to the best

quality foods being traded on the international markets, leaving the home populations having to

tolerate lower quality basic foods. This in itself will create civil unrest about food and consequential

price increases and adding the effect of migrants will exacerbate the problems.

These graphs are taken from a discussion paper, written by Stefania Massari entitled Current food

consumption patterns and global sustainability.

The increased global demand for red meat products will exacerbate the inability of the cereal and

pulse producers to keep up with the needs within the human food change. This demand, for red

meat products, will cause concerns within the civil sector and frustrations will arise due to the cost

of red meat products and part of this concern will be raised due to the cultural demand for being

seen to be able to afford the meat products; again, referring to lifestyle. Due to competition in the

consumer chain, the cost of red meat products will rise and so also will the cost of cereals and

pulses as part of a balanced diet. Populations facing high costs of basic foods will cause civil unrest

and few will wish to return to the poor mans diet that is reliant on foraging.


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The questions raised by the international government departments raise other related issues and of these,

two seem to be foremost. These also raise questions in themselves and there could be an endless trail ofsub-questions, which can only be answered by extended micro level field research.

[1] How are local food shortages created?

There are several factors that add to the increasing food shortages (and thus price increases) and

in some aspect the relief agencies add to this cycle. Large organisations working with relief agencies bulk

purchase basic food commodities, in order to facilitate food support programmes in areas of natura

disaster, national and international conflict, HIV/Aids and other programmes. In order to be able to

respond to crisis situations international organisations bulk purchase basic foods on the general market,

either in direct response to critical situations or to store in the event of a foreseen or unforeseen situation

It has been questioned as to whether or not humanitarian aids fuels conflict over food and this needs to be

addressed. The gathering of food stocks for relief programmes on its own removes a percentage of basic

foods from the international markets and could be a factor in price rises.

The greater demand on relief food programmes (HIV/Aids, famine, conflict migrants etc) removes

bulk food supplies from the general market and in doing so, could have an effect on the increasing number

of those that have no employment power. Secondly, due to the dire need to hold stocks, these

organisations are able to pay higher prices for the basic foods, exacerbating the food shortage problems.

Local governments may set aside basic food stocks in order to sell to food donor organisations. Even

within the relief food programmes, the agencies involved are having difficulty to bulk purchase basic

foods, due to shortages, competition from livestock feed processors and the resultant price rises. As was

seen in Zambia, CRS dramatically reduced their food donations to HIV/Aids programmes, partly in order to

facilitate relief programmes in Zimbabwe and partly due to general prices and shortages from their

donors.

Obviously, poor agricultural planning and production is a key factor in food shortages and in

general, governments have left the production of food to private commerce and all producers will sell to

the highest bidder, possibly leaving out the poorer end of the consumer chain. Some countries have

boasted that they have produced surpluses to national requirements and yet some sectors of these

populations are severely undernourished. Governments have central food storage facilities and any


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surpluses are stored within. These surpluses are then sold onto the international markets (highes

bidder) for foreign currency income. Included within this is some corruption and this is unavoidable.

Greater competition from the livestock industry adds to basic human food resources, especially in

the carbohydrate and protein rich foods.

Severe weather changes have an effect on food supplies and at times, have had a marked effect on

the amount of basic foods available on the general markets. Higher than normal rainfalls, droughts and

slight alterations in climate will always effect agricultural production and there are insufficient internationa

reserves to accommodate food shortage needs. In time, farmers will adjust to climate changes and

respond to local needs. It should also be understood that some basic food crops during a period of globa

climate change will be at the limits of their heat tolerances and this will affect production yields. Crops wil

naturally adapt to changes, but adaption is limited before failures are noted, although estimates vary that

the affect of temperature changes will reduce yields of primary food crops between 20% and 40%

(THAINDIAN NEWS). As production yields decline the importance of soil management will gain in

importance and this should be planned for. Although there is a surfeit of gloomy news regarding basic food

production, the long term effects of these must be that the incidences of civil unrest will increase.

Climate change is not all bad news as where global climate change will produce lower yields in

some areas; the changes will allow increases in food production in other areas. Upland areas unable to

produce higher yields of cereal crops will be better able to ensure food security in these areas and theproduction of vegetables and fruits will also improve. However, any increases in food production due to

climate change, may be offset by increasing populations of poor people.

[2] How is the level of possible civil disturbances related to these issues?

As has been reported in South Africa, violence related to food price increases has been directly

associated to economic and conflict migrants (from Zimbabwe) competing with local residents for work

and thus, the purchasing power for food. This creates shortages which further aggravates this cycle. South

Africa is not the only country affected by food related civil disturbances as incidences have occurred in

Asia and even within Europe there are more comments from dissatisfied people being noted.

Secondly, there are some indicators that political activists take advantage of these situations to

embarrass sitting governments and this is likely to be a growing problem and thus, politics becomes part

of the problem. Whether or not the activities of anti-government bodies are spurious, those affected by

food shortages can become more violent because of these external factors.

The quality of basic foods being made available is also of growing concern; where local marketeers

have purchased second quality produce and pass these off as first quality and most that use these

markets have little choice in the matter, as they need to feed families.

Global climate change also affects the availability of some basic foods and thus raises questions as

to whether there will be need to encourage change in eating habits, especially in countries where rice isthe staple food. Political decisions will need to be made well in advance of any likely need to alter loca

feeding habits, as will the need to research and develop improved varieties of food sources to be produced

locally. Therefore it is very necessary to implement apolitical long term development of improve and

diverse crop varieties.

[Note: The Philippines Government has made hoarding rice punishable by life

imprisonment]


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[Note: It's an explosive situation and threatens political stability, worries Jean-Louis

Billon, president of Cte d'Ivoire's Chamber of Commerce.]

[Note: World agriculture has entered a new, unsustainable and politically risky period,

says Joachim von Braun, the head of the International Food Policy Research Institute

(IFPRI) in Washington, DC.]


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Reviewing responses:

In order to be able to create responses to the problems associated with civil disturbances over

food, it is first necessary to determine the potential levels of stress within areas where greatest concerns

may be noted.

There is also a need to review the means and levels of reporting these disturbances, as in the rura

deprived areas there is a greater number of (minor) disturbances although there are few official reports ofthese. Whether or not these disturbances will grow, both in number and ferocity will be reflected in food

availability.

Boosting the production of secondary food staples as a back-up may resolve some of the

immediate problems should the supply of the main (prime) staple food become scarce, but this would

have little effect on the overall problem. Although most of Africa depends on maize; cassava and sweet

potato are a good standby, as are plantains, although storage of these as fresh commodities is

problematical.

Further questions raised and to be researched:

1. To what extent do the relief agencies take food out of the general consumer markets?

2. To what extent is the price of basic foods affected by relief agencies taking food out of the genera

consumer market?

3. To what extent does the livestock feed industry take food out of the general consumer markets?

4. To what extent is the shortage of drinking water likely to affect civil disturbances in the future?

5. To what extent will the present global economic problems affect the planting of basic foods?

6. Is it possible to increase the production of secondary food crops to boost the supplies of primary food

crops and would this reduce the civil disturbances over food shortages? However, secondary food crops

do not store well and this has to be considered.

7. Should international co-operatives (EU, ASEAN, SADC, etc) be expected to build food stocks and would

this action further reduce basic food available on general markets, assuming that [a] there are

sufficient basic foods that can be stocked and [b], that competition to build food stocks would possibly

raise prices?

8. Is it possible to consider international co-operatives leasing large tracts of land in order to produce

emergency food stocks? Is this worth taking forward?

9. Should research be undertaken to determine the cultural importance of some foods?

10.How much is food availability related to terrorism and are governments factoring this into overviews of

conflict hotspots?

11.Will terrorist organisations use shortages of basic foods in order to raise support for anti-authority civi

disturbances and will this become a fashion within these organisations?

12.How much will the global economic problem add to the problem of civil disturbances related to

unemployment and changing lifestyles?

13.To what extent will the predicted decrease in basic food production add to economic migration and

what will the effect of this be on the stress levels of local communities?

14.Will protectionism within the developed countries affect the potential of civil disturbances connected to

food price increases?

15.How much will predicted increases in fossil fuel prices affect the availability and cost of basic foods?

16.If the worlds food producers are to match the need in basic foods, it must be questioned [a] how the

food production industry can maintain the increases in food production since the 1950s and [b], where


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this extra food is to be produced?

References:

1. USDA Economic Research Service USDA agricultural projections to 2016 (2007).2. Stefania Massari entitled Current food consumption patterns and global sustainability.

3. Governor Raul Daza: Governor of Northern Samar Province, Samar, Philippines.

4. Jean-Louis Billon: President of Cte d'Ivoire's chamber of commerce.

5. Joachim von Braun: Head of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in Washington,

DC.]

6. World Bank.


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