Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish 1

NATO’s Future Role: Problems and Prospects

Dr Paul Cornish

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Old NATO1949 -1989

• Cold War

• Politico-Military Alliance

• Threat

• Article 5

• Territorial Defence

• US Role

• US-European Strategic Relationship

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Confused NATO1989 -1999

• Threat?• Purpose?• Scope?• Politico-Military Alliance• New Strategic Concept• Enlargement and Open Door• US Leadership• NATO/EU Relations

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New NATO?1999 - Present

• Security Provider

• Multiple Threats

• NATO Capabilities

• Military Transformation

• Budget Driven

• NATO/EU Relationship: ‘Berlin Plus’

• Enlargement and Outreach

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NATO Enlargement and Outreach

OS

CE

(5

5)

NATO (26)

CO

UN

CIL

OF

EU

RO

PE

(4

5)

EU

(25)

WE

U

(10)

CanadaUnited States

BulgariaIcelandNorwayRomaniaTurkey

Albania AndorraArmenia AzerbaijanBosnia & HerzegovinaCroatiaFRY [Serbia-Mont.]FYROM GeorgiaLiechtensteinMoldovaRussia San Marino SwitzerlandUkraine

Czech Rep.Denmark Estonia HungaryLatviaLithuaniaPolandSlovak Rep.Slovenia

BelgiumFranceGermanyGreeceItalyLuxembourgNetherlandsPortugalSpainUK

Austria, Cyprus, Finland, Ireland, Malta, Sweden

BelarusHoly See Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Rep. Monaco Tajikistan TurkmenistanUzbekistan

NATO Mediterranean Dialogue (7) Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco, Tunisia

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NATOThreats, Drivers and Shocks

• Threats: Terrorism, WMD, ‘Rogue States’ etc.• Drivers of the Global Strategic Environment

– Globalisation– Asymmetric Warfare– Demographic and Environmental Changes– Failing States– Radical Ideologies– Unresolved Conflicts

• Shocks to NATO: 15 Years• Global Response

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NATOInitiatives and Concepts

Initiatives:• Allied Command Transformation• NATO Response Force• Military Concept for Defence Against Terrorism• Civil Emergency Planning Action Plan• Deployable NBC Analytical Laboratory• NBC Event Response Team• NBW Weapons Defence Centre• NATO BW/CW Defence Stockpile• Disease Surveillance System

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NATOInitiatives and Concepts

Concepts:• Holistic Security:

– Political/Military/Civil/Economic

• Multidimensional Security:– Conflict Prevention– Crisis & Consequence Management– Peacekeeping– Support to Peacemaking– Disaster Response– Humanitarian Assistance– Post-combat and Post-conflict Capability

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NATOThe Transformation Agenda

• Intelligence• Accountability• Public Support• Agility• Interoperability• Adaptable Force Structures• Integrated Logistics• Suitable for Networked Environment

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NATOCommand and Control

• Leaner Structure: – Operations Command– Transformation Command

• Interoperability:– Liaison – Deconfliction – Integration– New Technologies and Concepts

• Effects-based Approach

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NATOThe Effects-Based Approach

An effects-based approach involves the comprehensive integrated application of all instruments of Alliance power, both military and non-military, to create campaign effects which will achieve desired outcomes. This approach can be adopted at all levels of command and across the spectrum of conflict.

NATO’s Strategic Commanders Strategic Vision: The Military Challenge

2004 (Draft)

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NATOCapability Programmes, Goals and Requirements

• Programmes: DCI – PCC• Goals:

– Decision Superiority– Coherent Effects– Joint Deployment and Sustainment

• Requirements:– Improved Intelligence and Information-Sharing– Network-Enabled Capability– Robust and Flexible CIS Foundation– More Deployable and Adaptable Forces– Improved Co-ordination and Co-operation– Improved Post-Conflict Operations– Interoperable Logistics Systems

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NATOProblems and Prospects

• Threat• Article 5/Territorial

Defence • Transformation• US Leadership • NATO/EU Relations • Franco/US Relations• Russia

• New Strategic Concept?

• NATO = 26 Nations• Outreach• National Caveats• Ends and Means• European Defence

Spending

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NATO Europe and US Defence Expenditure, and Defence Expenditure as % GDP (US $m constant 2000)

1985 2001 2002

US$m %GDP US$m %GDP US$m %GDP Belgium 3583 2.9 2953 1.3 3435 1.3

Czech Republic n.a. n.a. 1158 2.1 1401 2.1

Denmark 1858 2.1 2456 1.6 2564 1.6

France 30659 3.9 32438 2.5 38005 2.5

Germany 29393 3.2 26729 1.5 31465 1.5 Greece 3439 7.0 5245 4.6 6154 4.4

Hungary 2060 6.8 902 1.7 1083 1.8

Iceland n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Italy 13729 2.2 21528 2.0 24210 1.9

Luxembourg 74 1.0 156 0.8 193 0.9

Netherlands 5731 2.9 6083 1.6 7330 1.6

Norway 2651 2.8 2884 1.8 3434 1.9

Poland 21644 20.5 3436 2.0 3400 1.9

Portugal 964 3.2 2277 2.1 2945 2.3

Spain 5856 2.4 7007 1.2 8253 1.2

Turkey 3489 3.1 7018 4.9 8727 5.1

United Kingdom 35003 5.2 33967 2.5 35249 2.4

United States 380899 6.1 299917 3.1 329616 3.3

Average 4.2 2.1 2.1

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Three Options

1. NATO Revived

2. NATO-EU Transfer

3. New Transatlantic Treaty

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NATO’s Future Role: Problems and Prospects

Dr Paul Cornish