sofia vasilopoulou(university of york ......cartelisation is beyond party positions and party...
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Sofia Vasilopoulou (University of York)
Theofanis Exadaktylos (LSE/University of Surrey)
Daphne Halikiopoulou (London School of Economics)
Workshop on social Change: Theory and Applications, the case of Greek society
Hellenic Observatory/ LSE
Dept. of Sociology, University of Manchester
Friday March 9th, 2012
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Research Questions� How do countries respond during times of severe
crises and the prospect of austerity?
� Why is Greece—a highly likely case of Europeanization—responding with non-substantive policies to meet European demands?
� There is initiation of policy but why is there not instigation of reform?
� Tax evasion
� Public procurement / public sector reform
� Welfare state reform
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The EU Effect
� EU context conducive to high adaptation pressures
� We start with a classic definition of Europeanization from a top-down approach (set policy areas vsflexibility of implementation)
� High adaptation pressures = transformation
� Transformation –major adjustment (e.g. change of party system, revised macroeconomic policies, and new belief systems by groups or individuals – paradigmatic change)
� Inertia of process versus inertia of outcome
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The Argument
� CATCH 22� Political accountability problem hinders the solution of the
economic problem
� Corruption + lack of cleavages + two party system ����Cartelisation
� Corruption � Widespread and institutionally embedded� Tension between providing successful economic solutions
and retaining political accountability.
� Political will to introduce and implement substantive policies is constrained by party cartelisation
� Cartelisation: tacit consensus against substantive measures because they could result in impeding the two main parties’ political and electoral opportunities.
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PASOK and New Democracy
election results since 1977
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Lack of opposition to the cartel E le ctio n y ea r To ta l co m b ine d sea ts
19 77 2 64
19 81 2 87
19 85 2 87
198 9 Ju ne 2 70
1 989 N o v 2 76
19 90 2 73
19 93 2 81
19 96 2 70
20 00 2 83
20 04 2 82
20 07 2 54
20 09 2 51
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Corruption
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The Greek Outcome� Cartelisation causally linked to inertia of outcome
� Political actors: both unwilling and unable
� They do recognize high economic pressures and threats and the misfit but
� Prefer not to instigate change (established party interests);
� Cannot impose change (e.g. riots, strikes and civil disobedience)
� Cannot agree on common discourse (external and internal opposition)
� Lack of discursive tools to convince the public of the necessity for and the appropriateness of change.
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Populism as a frame of party
system dynamics � Cartelisation is beyond party positions and party
alignments and is expressed and justified through a populist blame-shifting agenda on behalf of all parties in the system
� The dynamics of the party system in Greece are characterised by a competition between cartel and non-cartel parties
� Populism frames this dynamic � Two main political camps carry out an agenda of blame-
shifting � Mainstream cartel parties (ND – PASOK): soft populism
� Who are engaged in a rhetoric of blaming each other
� Fringe parties (KKE – LAOS – SYRIZA): hard populism� Whose rhetoric merges internal and external blame-shifting
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Argument flow
EU Pressure
for reforms
Parties Blame-shifting
Populism
CORRUPTION INERTIA
of outcome
Voters
ReinforcesCartelization
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Method and data� Sophisticated qualitative content analysis
� Frames
� Time frame: elections 2009 – cooperation government 2011
� Unit of analysis: 35 speeches
� Thessaloniki International Fair 2010, 2011
� Memorandum of Understanding 2010
� Mid Term Financial Strategy 2011
� Budget 2010, 2011, 2012
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Populist framesFrame Mainstream (soft) Radical (hard)
Rationale
Holistic
Specific
On behalf of all the people
On behalf of the ‘people’ (as equated with a
particular social group, e.g. class)
System ontology
Pro-establishment
Anti-establishment
Catch-all parties
Left-wing
(class based)
Right-wing
(ethnically based)
Tactic/Rhetoric
Blame-shifting
Exclusion
(across party lines)
- Onto main opposition party
- Onto specific domestic groups
- Onto specific media outlets
- Of elites (vertical);
� External elites (US, IMF, EU…)
� Domestic elite as collaborators of
the external elites
- Of specific social groups (horizontal):
� Tax evaders
� Public servants
� Closed-off professions
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Soft populism: Cartel parties � Pro-establishment: system; rule of law; democratic procedures, EU,
support of the middle class. � Holistic: language of togetherness
� ‘we’ will make it ‘together’� ‘Greece is us’; ‘our’ country� we identify ourselves with the Greek people and their efforts� we stand by the people’s side� we serve the Greek citizen
� ND more nationalistic: reference to symbols (e.g. Acropolis) � Blame-shifting:
� The main opposition is ‘responsible’ for the situation� They ‘have committed crimes’� They have been concealing the truth � Greece has taken ‘steps back’ as a result of ND/PASOK � The main opposition has encouraged lack of transparency, political
clientelism and corruption.
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Hard populism: fringe parties
� Anti-establishment: anti-system & Eurosceptic but in varying degrees
� Specific: equate the people with a specific social group (class versus the Greek ethnie)
� Exclusion:
� Politics of blame onto PASOK & ND
� Both leaders responsible for the current crisis – they are both ‘afraid’ to govern
� Criticism of other small parties
� Criticism of external elites
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‘Capital’ versus ‘Ethnie’KKE LAOS
� Crisis is the cause of the international capitalist system which is supported by the two main parties
� Distinguishes between patriotism of the capital and patriotism of the people
� Emphasis on nationalistic frames
� Immigration, history, Alexander the Great (Macedonia), Turkey, Smyrna etc.
� ‘the 1922 crisis is greater than the current crisis’
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Conclusions
� What do we find:
� Initiation of change, YES – Reform/Outcome NO
� Where can we locate the explanatory variables?
� Party-political discourse, cartelization, and populist frameworks
� Potential for change: increasing fragmentation/ polls indicate de-alignment
� But: cartelisation, patronage, and corruption dominate Greek politics hindering reform/ change needs to be political, systemic and generational