SOFT & HARD POWERSOFT & HARD POWER

CASE STUDY -CASE STUDY -

THE CHINESE CENTURY THE CHINESE CENTURY

1949-20491949-2049

QuestionsQuestions

What is Soft Power? What is Hard Power? What is Soft Power? What is Hard Power? How hard is soft power? (How How hard is soft power? (How

compelling?)compelling?) How soft is hard power? (How How soft is hard power? (How

vulnerable?)vulnerable?) What dictates which is used when? Or in What dictates which is used when? Or in

what combination?what combination?

Introduction of the term ‘soft power’ Introduction of the term ‘soft power’

Nye, Jr., Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Joseph S. Soft Power: The Means to Success Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politicsin World Politics. PublicAffairs, 2004. . PublicAffairs, 2004.

Joseph S. Nye Jr.Joseph S. Nye Jr. from Harvard's Kennedy School of from Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.Government.

““power today lies not only in the might of one's sword but power today lies not only in the might of one's sword but in the appeal of one's ideas” - in the appeal of one's ideas” - U.S. Power and Strategy U.S. Power and Strategy After IraqAfter IraqJoseph S. Nye, Jr.Joseph S. Nye, Jr.From From Foreign AffairsForeign Affairs, , July/August 2003July/August 2003

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20030701faessay15405/http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20030701faessay15405/joseph-s-nye-jr/u-s-power-and-strategy-after-iraq.htmljoseph-s-nye-jr/u-s-power-and-strategy-after-iraq.html

The Chinese CenturyThe Chinese Century

The Chinese Century The Chinese Century from 1949 began with from 1949 began with the slogan 'political the slogan 'political power grows out of power grows out of the barrel of a gun'. the barrel of a gun'. What did this mean? What did this mean? Was it true? Is it still Was it true? Is it still true? true?

Transformative powerTransformative power

If the above is the slogan If the above is the slogan of of struggle,struggle, what might be what might be a slogan for the traditional a slogan for the traditional Chinese virtue of Chinese virtue of harmonyharmony? ?

Slogan from the Slogan from the traditional Chinese traditional Chinese tributary system: Lai Hua tributary system: Lai Hua (Come and be (Come and be transformed)transformed)

What might the slogan be What might the slogan be in 2049?in 2049?

Strategic CultureStrategic Culture

What is Strategic Culture? What is Strategic Culture? Compare the strategic cultures of the Compare the strategic cultures of the

USA, the Middle East, East Asia, the EU. USA, the Middle East, East Asia, the EU. It will help to describe their behaviour in It will help to describe their behaviour in the pursuit of security. the pursuit of security.

‘‘All warfare is deception’All warfare is deception’

Features of Chinese strategic Features of Chinese strategic culture: culture:

yin-yang, wen-wu, 'people's yin-yang, wen-wu, 'people's war' (3 phases); war' (3 phases);

'All warfare is deception' - Sun 'All warfare is deception' - Sun Tzu. How deceptive is China's Tzu. How deceptive is China's military power? How soft is military power? How soft is China's hard power? - as in (a) China's hard power? - as in (a) vulnerablevulnerable and (b) a and (b) a disguise disguise for soft powerfor soft power? How hard is ? How hard is China's soft power? - as in (a) China's soft power? - as in (a) compellingcompelling and (b) a disguise and (b) a disguise and means for the and means for the acquisition acquisition of hard powerof hard power..

The Chinese Superpower?The Chinese Superpower? Is it important for China to Is it important for China to

become a superpower? become a superpower? What are the pros and What are the pros and cons? What kind of cons? What kind of superpower might it be if superpower might it be if this was to eventuate? this was to eventuate? Think about its strategic Think about its strategic culture for clues.culture for clues.

What did the Chinese What did the Chinese President mean when he President mean when he said to the American said to the American Secretary of State Secretary of State - - ""The The fat man didn't get that way fat man didn't get that way with just one bitewith just one bite"?"?

‘‘China’s Defense Policy in the China’s Defense Policy in the Context of Globalization’ Context of Globalization’ 15/6/0615/6/06

Rear Admiral YANG YiRear Admiral YANG Yi Director, Institute of Director, Institute of

Strategic StudiesStrategic Studies National Defense National Defense

University, PLAUniversity, PLA Speaker at ‘China Speaker at ‘China

Confronts New Security Confronts New Security Issues’ workshop, China Issues’ workshop, China Foreign Affairs UniversityForeign Affairs University

Beijing, 12-16 June 2006Beijing, 12-16 June 2006

Yang’s observations on Soft PowerYang’s observations on Soft Power

Spoke of:Spoke of: ‘ ‘soft power and hard power in promotion of harmonious soft power and hard power in promotion of harmonious

world’world’ ‘‘following defensive strategy, not aggressive – China will following defensive strategy, not aggressive – China will

not follow the superpower military policy’not follow the superpower military policy’ ‘‘military power should be used not aggressively but [in military power should be used not aggressively but [in

the arena] of international cooperation’ – e.g. UN the arena] of international cooperation’ – e.g. UN peacekeeping, disaster relief, anti-terrorism.peacekeeping, disaster relief, anti-terrorism.

China’s military power is not ‘focused on a third party’. China’s military power is not ‘focused on a third party’. Encouraged more military exchanges in officer training Encouraged more military exchanges in officer training colleges, joint military exercises for building trust and colleges, joint military exercises for building trust and transparency. transparency.

‘‘Strategic Culture & International Strategic Culture & International Security’Security’

By Prof. QIN YaqingBy Prof. QIN Yaqing Exec. Vice PresidentExec. Vice President China Foreign Affairs China Foreign Affairs

UniversityUniversity Vice President, China Vice President, China

National Assoc. for National Assoc. for Int’l StudiesInt’l Studies

Cooperative InternationalismCooperative Internationalism

Prof Qin spoke of 3 possible foreign policy Prof Qin spoke of 3 possible foreign policy choices:choices:

1. Aggressive nationalism1. Aggressive nationalism

(as China develops so does nationalism)(as China develops so does nationalism) 2. Utilitarian realism2. Utilitarian realism

(work only for national interests)(work only for national interests) 3. Cooperative internationalism – China’s choice3. Cooperative internationalism – China’s choice

(highly integrated in int’l system – both economic & (highly integrated in int’l system – both economic & security fields)security fields)

Useful ReadingsUseful Readings The Rise of China's Soft PowerThe Rise of China's Soft Power

Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Joseph S. Nye, Jr. The Wall Street JournalThe Wall Street Journal, Asia edition, 29 , Asia edition, 29 December 2005. Posted on the Belfer Center for Science December 2005. Posted on the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs website at Harvard University. and International Affairs website at Harvard University.

Also available on: Chinese Military PowerAlso available on: Chinese Military Power: : http://www.comw.org/cmp/http://www.comw.org/cmp/

Purnendra Jain and Gerry Groot, “Beijing's 'soft power' Purnendra Jain and Gerry Groot, “Beijing's 'soft power' offensive”, offensive”, Asia Times OnlineAsia Times Online, 17 May 2006,, 17 May 2006, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/HE17Ad01.htmlhttp://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/HE17Ad01.html

Bates Gill & Yanzhong Huang, ‘Sources and Limits of Bates Gill & Yanzhong Huang, ‘Sources and Limits of Chinese “Soft Power”’, Chinese “Soft Power”’, SurvivalSurvival, Vol. 48, No. 2, Summer , Vol. 48, No. 2, Summer 2006, pp. 17-35.2006, pp. 17-35.

The State Council Information Office, The State Council Information Office, China's National China's National Defense in 2004Defense in 2004 ( (White PaperWhite Paper), PRC, 27 Dec. 2004, Beijing,), PRC, 27 Dec. 2004, Beijing,www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/doctrine/natdef2004.htmlwww.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/doctrine/natdef2004.html

Class Exercise: Class Exercise: China’s soft power in 2049China’s soft power in 2049

Form small Form small discussion groups discussion groups and create a best and create a best case and worst case case and worst case scenario for China’s scenario for China’s soft power in 2049.soft power in 2049.

At the end of the At the end of the session we will session we will compare findings.compare findings.