soft systems: an interdisciplinary method dr karen bowler marine and coastal policy research group...
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Soft Systems: an Interdisciplinary Method
Dr Karen BowlerMarine and Coastal Policy Research Group
School of Earth, Ocean and Environmental Sciences
The Irish Sea: a socio-ecological system
• Marine management
• Sustainability:
‘Meeting the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generation s to meet their own needs.’
Brundtland 1987
• Ecosystem wellbeing fundamental
• Humans are part of the ecosystem.
The Problem – Why is marine conservation failing to deliver?’
• D-P-S-I-R• Science-policy gap• Barriers to change
• ESRC/NERC • Multiple disciplines
involved• Which methods?
Ecosystem PRESSURES
Environmental STATE CHANGES
Societal DRIVERS
Societal RESPONSES
IMPACTSon Society
Disciplines
INTERDISCIPLINARITY
‘Disciplinary silos’
Civil society
Academia
‘Sage on stage’
After Brand, R & Karvonen A, 2007
Soft systemsWhy use soft systems?
• Current focus – marine science and human activities framed exclusively within the scientific paradigm.
• These approaches therefore necessarily fail to consider the ultimate, societal, causes of environmental degradation.
Advantages:
• ‘messy’ situations • ‘soft’/multiple problem definitions• Context sensitive• Include many kinds of information • Clarify assumptions, values, purpose • Critical system for action (Ulrich, W)
Soft systemsWhat is a system? • A ‘Holon’ -Greater than sum of parts • Structured by its components, interactions and feedbacks• Persistent in face of change
• What are Soft Systems?• A ‘thinking tool’, ‘a sense-making approach’ (Checkland P, 1981)
• A process of enquiry using systems tools and thinking • ‘holons’ developed to structure debate, compare with real
world, consider changes• Can be issue-based or task-based (O.R.)• Ideally – with multiple stakeholders • Iterative learning cycle
Ongoing evaluation
Take Action
Interpretation of results
Model analyses
Model development
Screening - system boundaries
probs/opps
Scoping -Explore the context
START
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Step 4
Step 5
Step 7
Step 6
7-step method – iterative, refined, results of several cycles
After Checkland, 1981
Context – Rich Pictures
From : Karen Bow ler
Problems/Opportunities:A ‘Mess’• Marine environmental damage/degradation• Scientific uncertainty • Multiple legislatory challenges: Marine Protected Areas,
shipping, fishing, tourism, conservation, • Conflicting interests: high population, high consumption
levels, energy demands, economic competitiveness, global links
• Sustainability – economic? social?
• Root Definition: Transformation of a non-sustainable Irish Sea into a sustainable Irish Sea?
Scale, Boundaries,
Regional circulation patterns
Marine monitoring -populations,
species, habitatsLand-based
activities regulation
Nutrients and pollutant emission
regulations
Marine activities regulation
Irish Sea
Wider circulation- NAO, Gulf stream Climate change
OSPARUNCLOS
Irish Sea
MARPOL System Environment
Non-sustainable Irish Sea
Excess nutrientsNoisePhysical
disturbance
Agriculture IndustryShipping
Fisheries
Energy
emissions of pollutants
Multi-Cause Diagram
Mortalities
land appropriation
Inadequatemodelling
Ineffective legislation
Inadequate farm management
eutrophication
Inadequate legislation
Poor technology usePoor wastetreatment
Trade
airborneemissions
Urbanisation
Management failures highlighted in red
Multiple-cause diagram 1
Multiple-cause diagram 2
Non-sustainable Irish Sea
nature conservation
fishing effort
pollutants
radioactivity
shipping
operational discharges
industry
agriculture
energy
population
CO2
population and species losses
Habitat degradation
noise, disturbancedredging and dumping
TBToil pollution
accidents
marine conservation strategy fisheries management
climate changes
extractive activities and sea use
OSPAR
KYOTO
ecosystem qualitylegislation
Points of intervention shown in red
Influence diagramInfluences on the Irish Sea
Environment Agencies
European Union
NGOs
National government policies
Non–sustainable Irish Sea
International Conventions
Future generations
Economic growth
Trade and Industry
General population
Fisheries
Agriculture
Energy
Coastal Fora
Recreationalsea users
Coastal management
Short-term interests
Long-term interests
Shipping
Overshoot
Global externalities
Critical SystemCritical components identified:
Causes: Failures in Legislation, Management, Modelling, Technology use
Influences: Feedback loops
Economic growth-energy-trade
Externalities-short-termism-Overshoot
Critical areas for action e. g. Strengthen weakly interacting feedback at long-term interests
Wider discussion
• The Irish Sea itself does not comprise a holon.
• Scientifically defined ‘ecosystem’• Politically divided• Statistical data at national level• Subject to multiple influences from system
environment• A sustainable Irish Sea is a long way from
reality.
ConclusionsSoft systems methods provide a key link in developing our
understanding of complex, trans-disciplinary issues. They:
• Extend understanding to multiple, underlying causes eg advertising, outside usual consideration
• Construct a holistic picture of context and interrelationships which influence (non)-sustainability
• As a learning cycle, could offer much more if practiced on the ground in stakeholder fora.
Natural Sciences ‘ WHAT HAPPENS’
Social Sciences ‘WHY IT HAPPENS’
PRESSURES
STATE CHANGES
DRIVERS
RESPONSES
IMPACTS
Needs Wants
Feelings
Power
Beliefs, Values
Quantity
Speed
Volume
Area
Size
DPSIR and Data
Natural Sciences Value Neutral
Social Sciences
Value Pluralism
PRESSURES
STATE CHAGES
DRIVERS
RESPONSES
IMPACTS
Relationships Context
Process
Pattern
More Data Reduce uncertainty
Consensus
Empathy
Respect
Commitment, Vision
DPSIR and Epistemologies
‘Rational’
‘Non-Rational’
Current basis for marine sustainability
‘…based on sound science’ – as opposed to unsound science
Oceanography
BiologyEcology
Fisheries Science
Resource management Conservation
of habitats and species
Chemistry
Extended basis for marine sustainability
‘…based on sound science’ – but only as a basis – cultural values
Oceanography
BiologyEcology
Fisheries Science
Resource management Conservation
of habitats and species
Chemistry
Scientific Basis
Context, advertising, global economy, unequal distribution of benefits, trade-offs, advertising, short term benefit v ultimate aims,. Where are we really going? Is it good or bad – beyond science