Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

am

The

Pros

pect

for $

1/W

att E

lectri

city f

rom

Sola

r

$1/W

Wor

ksho

p Au

gust

10, 2

010

John

Lus

hets

ky

Pro

gram

Man

ager

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

am (S

ETP

)

Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Offi

ce o

f Ene

rgy

Effi

cien

cy a

nd R

enew

able

Ene

rgy

APL000040 10/21/2011

Dis

clai

mer

“It’s

toug

h m

akin

g pr

edic

tions

, esp

ecia

lly a

bout

the

futu

re.”

-Sev

eral

sou

rces

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

amSl

ide

2

Rea

chin

g C

ost R

educ

tion

Targ

ets

will

requ

ire

adva

nces

in a

ll P

V s

yste

m c

ompo

nent

s

Util

ity S

yste

m w

ith $

1/W

Goa

l

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

am

Utilit

y PV:

LCOE

Tar

gets

Ghi

Lti

Fina

ncin

g C

ondi

tions

•Lo

w: 8.

2% af

ter-ta

x W

ACC

•Hi

gh: 9

.9% af

ter-ta

x W

ACC

Geo

grap

hic

Loca

tions

•Ph

oenix

, AZ

•Ka

nsas

City

, MO

•Ne

w Yo

rk, N

Y

2015

•W

ith th

e 30%

ITC,

PV

is br

oadly

comp

etitiv

e with

wh

olesa

le ele

ctrici

ty ra

tes

unde

r all c

ondit

ions

With

th10

%IT

CPV

i

Utilit

y PV

with

10%

ITC:

Initi

al Gr

id P

arity

: 201

4W

ides

prea

d Gr

id P

arity

: 203

0

•W

ith th

e 10%

ITC,

PV

iseq

ual to

or be

low th

e CA

MPR

unde

r mos

t co

nditio

ns an

d co

mpeti

tive w

ith hi

gh

whole

sale

electr

icity

rates

un

der t

he be

st ins

olatio

n an

d fina

ncing

cond

itions

2030

•W

ith th

e 10%

ITC,

PV

is br

oadly

comp

etitiv

e with

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

am4

* Ass

umes

IOU

or IP

P ow

nersh

ip of

PV, a

nd th

us th

e LCO

E inc

ludes

the t

axes

paid

on el

ectric

ity g

ener

ated.

Includ

es 5-

year

MAC

RS b

ut no

t stat

e or lo

cal in

centi

ves.

The

rang

e in

utility

PV

LCOE

is d

ue to

diffe

rent

insola

tion

and f

inanc

ing co

nditio

ns.

For a

comp

lete l

ist o

f ass

umpti

ons,

see D

OE S

olar C

ost T

arge

ts(2

009 –

2030

), in

proc

ess.

‡ The

elec

tricity

rate

rang

e rep

rese

nts on

e stan

dard

devia

tion b

elow

and a

bove

the m

ean U

.S. w

holes

ale el

ectric

ity p

rices

. Th

e 200

9 CA

MPR

includ

es ad

justm

ents

by ut

ility f

or th

e tim

e of

deliv

ery p

rofile

of s

olar (

low ca

se: S

DG&E

, mid

case

: PG&

E, h

igh ca

se: S

CE).

whole

sale

electr

icity

rates

un

der a

ll fina

ncing

and

insola

tion c

ondit

ions

Resid

entia

l PV:

LCOE

Tar

gets

Fina

ncin

g M

echa

nism

s•

Home

Mor

tgage

(80%

fin

ancin

g, 6.0

% in

teres

t, 30

-year

term

)•

Home

Equ

ity Lo

an (1

00%

fin

ancin

g, 7.7

5% in

teres

t, 15

-year

term

)

Geo

grap

hic

Loca

tions

•Ph

oenix

, AZ

•Ka

nsas

City

MORe

siden

tialP

Vwi

thou

tITC

:

Phoe

nix &

Ca

sh P

urch

ase †

2015

•W

ithou

t the I

TC, P

V is

broa

dlyco

mpeti

tivew

ith

Kans

as C

ity, M

O•

New

York,

NY

Resid

entia

l PV

with

out I

TC:

Initi

al Gr

id P

arity

: 201

3W

ides

prea

d Gr

id P

arity

: 201

5

broa

dly co

mpeti

tive w

ith

resid

entia

l elec

tricity

rates

un

der a

ll fina

ncing

and

insola

tion c

ondit

ions

2030

•W

ithou

ttheI

TCPV

has

Phoe

nix &

PAC

E Fi

nanc

ing

Phoe

nix &

PAC

E Fi

nanc

ing

•W

ithou

t the I

TC, P

V ha

s lev

elize

d cos

ts tha

t are

low

er th

an m

ost

resid

entia

l elec

tricity

rates

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

am5

*No s

tate,

local

or ut

ility i

ncen

tives

are i

nclud

ed. T

he ra

nge i

n res

identi

al PV

LCOE

is du

e to

differ

ent in

solat

ion an

d fina

ncing

cond

itions

. For

a co

mplet

e list

of a

ssum

ption

s, se

e DOE

So

lar C

ost T

arge

ts (2

009 –

2030

), in

proc

ess.

‡ The

elec

tricity

rate

rang

e rep

rese

nts on

e stan

dard

devia

tion b

elow

and a

bove

the

mean

U.S

. res

identi

al ele

ctrici

ty pr

ices.

Prop

erty

Asse

ssed

Clea

n Ene

rgy (

PACE

) Fina

ncing

assu

mes 1

00%

finan

cing a

t 5.0%

inter

est w

ith a

20-ye

ar pa

ybac

k sch

edule

† Cas

h pur

chas

e ass

umes

a dis

coun

t rate

of 9

.2% (n

omina

l), eq

ual to

the

long t

erm

retur

n on t

he S

&P 50

0

Sol

ar P

V C

ost R

educ

tion

Pro

gres

s,

Pot

entia

l of K

now

n Te

chno

logy

Pat

hway

s

Rea

chin

g$

50/W

coul

dta

keun

til20

30fo

rSim

odul

es*

Rea

chin

g$.

50/W

coul

dta

keun

til20

30fo

rSim

odul

es

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

amSl

ide

6

Man

ufac

turin

g C

ost M

odel

Sco

pe:

Cry

stal

line

Silic

on P

V

•D

etai

led

cost

mod

els

deve

lope

d fo

r eac

h st

ep:

•E

valu

ate

Tech

nica

l (C

ost)

Impr

ovem

ent O

ppor

tuni

ties

•S

imul

ate

disc

rete

man

ufac

turin

g op

erat

ions

•S

ensi

tivity

toin

depe

nden

tpro

cess

mat

eria

lpro

perti

esS

ensi

tivity

toin

depe

nden

tpro

cess

,mat

eria

lpro

perti

es•

Mar

gins

at e

ach

step

in th

e va

lue

chai

n•

Inte

rmed

iate

pro

duct

sal

es o

ppor

tuni

ty•

pro

form

a in

com

e st

atem

ent

•M

inim

um s

usta

inab

le: e

limin

ate

mar

ket n

oise

from

pro

ject

ions

•C

olla

bora

tions

with

stak

ehol

ders

from

thro

ugho

utth

e

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

am

•C

olla

bora

tions

with

stak

ehol

ders

from

thro

ugho

utth

eIn

dust

ry c

ritic

al to

mod

el d

evel

opm

ent

Slid

e 7

Cos

t red

uctio

n of

silic

on fe

edst

ock

to b

e le

d by

intro

duct

ion

of F

BR

pro

cess

FBR

pro

cess

cos

t adv

anta

ges:

•B

ette

r sila

ne g

as u

tiliz

atio

n•

Low

er te

mpe

ratu

re (e

nerg

y)•

Impr

oved

yie

ld (r

ates

)•

Cap

ital u

tiliz

atio

n

•To

tal c

ost b

enef

it: ~

40%

Mat

eria

lqua

lity:

Est

imat

ed m

argi

n co

mpr

essi

on

Mat

eria

lqua

lity:

•Fe

wer

met

al, O

2im

purit

ies

Cry

stal

gro

wth

adv

anta

ges:

•M

ultip

le re

char

ge (i

.e. s

emi

tiC

th)

cont

inuo

usC

z-gr

owth

)

•B

y 20

15, m

argi

n co

mpr

essi

on e

xpec

ted

to

driv

e S

G-S

i pric

e to

min

imal

sus

tain

able

.

•B

y 20

30, 2

0% e

xpec

ted

from

FB

R

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

am

•A

dditi

onal

driv

er fo

r FB

R w

ill c

ome

from

ad

vanc

ed c

ell a

rchi

tect

ures

.

Slid

e 8

Sour

ce:

MEM

C

Cos

t Red

uctio

n O

ppor

tuni

ties:

c-

Si W

afer

s

•K

ey in

nova

tions

•S

emi-c

ontin

uous

CZ-

crys

tal g

row

th

•D

iam

ond

wire

waf

erin

g

•K

erfle

ssw

afer

(80

mic

rons

)

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

am

•K

erfle

ssw

afer

(80

mic

rons

)

Slid

e 9

Sou

rce:

Sig

en

c-S

i Cel

l Des

crip

tion:

203

0*B

ased

on

publ

icly

dis

clos

ed (l

itera

ture

) cel

l des

igns

, not

inte

nded

to d

epic

t pr

oprie

tary

arc

hite

ctur

es

Not d

rawn

to sc

ale.

Text

urin

g no

t sho

wn.

•A

ll R

ear (

Inte

rdig

itate

d) C

onta

cts

•H

igh

lifet

ime

(n-t

ype)

waf

er•

Hig

hlif

etim

e(n

-typ

e)w

afer

•U

ltra

thin

(80

mic

rons

) ker

fless

waf

ers

•H

igh

qual

ity s

urfa

ce p

assi

vatio

n

•P

late

d em

itter

con

tact

s

•E

lect

role

ssni

ckel

bar

rier,

Cu

plat

ing

•B

ase

poin

tcon

tact

abso

rber

s

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

am

ase

potc

ota

ctab

sobe

s

•P

rinte

d A

l con

tact

s

Slid

e 10

c-S

i Cel

l Cos

tsMo

no C

ryst

allin

e (c-

Si) C

ell M

anuf

actu

ring

Cost

s

Sili

PV

hiti

lf

liit

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

am

•S

ilico

nP

V a

ppro

achi

ng p

ract

ical

per

form

ance

limit

•20

30 c

ase:

24%

pro

duct

ion

aver

age

cell,

21.

5% m

odul

e

Slid

e 11

c-S

i Mod

ule

Cos

tsMo

no C

ryst

allin

e(c-

Si) M

odul

e Man

ufac

turin

g Cos

ts

Selec

tive e

mitt

ers

All r

ear c

onta

cts

180�

m w

afer

140 �

m ke

rf16

0�m

120 �

m12

0�m

90�m

80�m

kerfl

ess

PS: $

34/kg

10 C

zrec

harg

es80

micr

on A

g Fr

amele

ss m

odul

e

PS: $

33/kg

Diam

ond

wire

40 m

icron

Ag

see+

CuA

gSn

plat

ing

Enha

nced

pass

ivatio

n (d

ielec

tric)

Rear

poi

nt co

ntac

tsAR

glas

sAl

l rea

r con

tact

s

PS: $

32/kg

Ni el

ectro

less s

eed

All C

u em

itter

(plat

ing)

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

amS

lide

12

Sol

ar P

V C

ost R

educ

tion

Pro

gres

s,

Pot

entia

l of K

now

n Te

chno

logy

Pat

hway

s

$.83

-$.

71/W

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

amSl

ide

13

Sol

ar P

V C

ost R

educ

tion

Pro

gres

s,

Pot

entia

l of K

now

n Te

chno

logy

Pat

hway

s

$.83

-$.

71/W

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

amSl

ide

14

Sol

ar P

V C

ost R

educ

tion

Pro

gres

s,

Pot

entia

l of K

now

n Te

chno

logy

Pat

hway

s

Rea

chin

g $.

50/W

cou

ld ta

ke u

ntil

2021

for C

dTe

mod

ules

*

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

amSl

ide

15

CdT

e E

ffici

ency

Roa

d M

ap:

Inno

vatio

n R

emai

ns a

n Im

porta

nt F

acto

r

?

•Fi

rst S

olar

sta

ted

(Jun

e 20

09)g

oal f

or $

.52/

W c

ost (

$.63

/Wpr

ice)

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

amS

lide

16

()g

$($

p)

•14

.4%

impl

ies

a si

gnifi

cant

adv

ance

men

t in

mod

ule

tech

nolo

gy (8

6% o

f cur

rent

, or n

ew ‘c

ham

pion

cel

l’)•

Bes

t in

clas

s c-

Si m

odul

e: ~

79%

of c

ham

pion

lab

cell,

man

y m

ore

year

s to

clo

se th

e ga

p

Sol

ar P

V C

ost R

educ

tion

Pro

gres

s,

Pot

entia

l of K

now

n Te

chno

logy

Pat

hway

s

Firs

t Sol

ar Q

2 20

10 re

porte

d co

st: $

0.76

/Wp

$.63

-$.

52/W

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

amSl

ide

17

Sol

ar P

V C

ost R

educ

tion

Pro

gres

s,

Pot

entia

l of K

now

n Te

chno

logy

Pat

hway

s

Firs

t Sol

ar Q

2 20

10 re

porte

d co

st: $

0.76

/Wp

$.63

-$.

52/W

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

amSl

ide

18

$0.5

0/W

Mod

ule

Cha

lleng

e: P

oten

tial

Bre

akdo

wn

of M

odul

e C

osts

2010

2015

Cost

Cost

Cost�($/W

)Cost�($/m

2)

$1/W

�Target

Capital

$0.24

$0.20

$0.10

$28

Materials

$1.11

$0.49

$0.23

$68

Labor

$0.27

$0.12

$0.06

$17

Margin

$079

$024

$011

•In

ord

er to

ach

ieve

$0.

50/W

mod

ule

selli

ng p

rice

Margin

$0.79

$0.24

$0.11

Total�M

odule

$1.70

$1.05

$0.50

•C

apex

of $

0.70

/W m

ay b

e re

quire

d.

•M

ater

ials

cos

ts m

ust b

e ab

out $

68/m

2*

•G

lass

EV

Aan

dba

cksh

eett

oday

cost

sab

out$

18/m

2ab

out2

5%of

•G

lass

,EV

A,a

ndba

cksh

eett

oday

cost

sab

out$

18/m

2 ,ab

out2

5%of

the

budg

et fo

r mat

eria

ls.

Met

alliz

atio

n ne

xt s

igni

fican

t opp

ortu

nity

.

•M

anuf

actu

ring

labo

r mus

t acc

ount

for l

ess

than

$0.

06/W

F10

0M

Wf

ti

ltt

120

FTE

t$50

k/f

lll

dd

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

am

•Fo

r100

MW

fact

ory,

equ

ival

entt

o12

0FT

Es

at$5

0k/y

rful

lylo

aded

Slid

e 19

*$/m

2 as

sum

es 2

5% e

ffici

ency

Non

-Mod

ule

Sol

ar P

V In

stal

latio

n (B

oS) C

osts

‘Inst

alla

tion’

labo

r:•

Nea

rly 7

5% o

f lab

or h

ours

ski

lled

•E

lect

ricia

n w

age

prem

ium

•G

rid c

onne

ct, w

iring

, pow

er, o

ther

ele

ctro

nics

‘O&

M’ c

osts

: rel

iabi

lity

$0.2

4/ W

$0.0

9/ W

•In

verte

r rel

iabi

lity,

repa

ir co

sts

•S

yste

m m

onito

ring

and

prev

enta

tive

mai

nten

ance

‘Indi

rect

Pro

ject

Cos

ts’v

ary:

$0.2

5/ W

$0.4

1/ W

Indi

rect

Pro

ject

Cos

tsva

ry:

•E

nviro

nmen

tal r

evie

w: $

100K

, up

to $

1 M

M a

nd 2

yea

rs

•La

nd p

rep.

: <$0

.10/

Wp,

dep

endi

ng o

n

$0.0

6/ W

$0.1

4/ W

$0.2

3/ W

•G

lass

mod

ule

inst

alla

tion

cost

s bu

rden

ed b

y di

sagg

rega

te s

yste

ms

(num

ber o

f

site

sel

ectio

n

•Tr

ansm

issi

on in

terc

onne

ct:

$1.0

-$1.

5 M

M, u

p to

$80

MM

(pro

hibi

tive)

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

am

ggg

y(

com

pone

nts)

•In

tegr

ate

com

pone

nts

at fa

ctor

y?

Slid

e 20

Util

ity S

cale

Sol

ar P

V:

Non

Mod

ule

Cos

ts

$0.0

9/ W

$0.4

1/ W

$0.0

9/ W

$0.0

6/ W

$0.1

4/ W

$0.2

3/ W

$0.1

3/ W

$0.1

1/ W

$0.0

3/ W

$0.2

8/ W

$0.2

5/ W

$0.2

4/ W

$0.2

5/ W

$0.2

4/ W

$0.0

5/ W

$0.0

8/ W

$0.0

8/ W

$0.0

9/ W

$0.0

2/ W

$0.1

5/ W

$0.0

3/ W

Rel

ativ

e to

the

25%

mod

ule

effic

ienc

y sc

enar

io, t

he $

0.50

/Wp

syst

em m

ust:

•R

educ

efix

edpo

wer

cost

s(In

verte

r,O

&M

)by

66%

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

am

Red

uce

fixed

pow

erco

sts

(Inve

rter,

O&

M)b

y66

%•

Trim

(sho

rt, lo

ng) w

iring

cos

ts (c

onte

nt) a

nd in

stal

latio

n by

50%

•D

ecre

ase

rack

ing

hard

war

e, B

oSco

mpo

nent

s by

33%

Slid

e 21

Non

Mod

ule

Cos

t-Sen

sitiv

ity to

E

ffici

ency

2010

144%

Sid

l20

10: 1

4.4%

c-Si

mod

ule

Optim

istic

c-Si

mod

ule

(pra

ctica

l effi

cienc

y lim

it*)

er

Non-

Modu

le Co

sts G

oal:

$0.50

/ Wp

*“P

ract

ical

lim

it”;

silic

on, o

ne s

un,

high

vol

ume

man

ufac

turin

gav

erag

e.

BOS/Inverte

•M

odul

eef

ficie

ncy

alon

eis

nota

dequ

ate

toac

hiev

egr

idpa

rity

(non

mod

ule

cost

s

aver

age.

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

am

•M

odul

eef

ficie

ncy

alon

eis

nota

dequ

ate

toac

hiev

egr

idpa

rity

(non

-mod

ule

cost

sex

ceed

$/W

at p

ract

ical

lim

it; 2

5%)

Slid

e 22

Sol

ar P

V E

nerg

y C

osts

:C

urre

nt a

nd P

roje

cted

, Lea

ding

Tec

hnol

ogie

s

2010

2015

US

Who

lesa

le E

lect

ricity

Pric

e

(US

Nat

iona

l Ave

rage

: 5.7

2)$/W

Goa

l(4

.5 ce

nts/k

Wh)

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

am

•U

nsub

sidi

zed

Sol

ar P

V e

nerg

y co

sts

will

rem

ain

>50%

hig

her t

han

US

who

lesa

le a

vera

ge (o

ptim

al s

olar

reso

urce

s)

Slid

e 23

Sum

mar

y

•H

isto

ry o

f mod

ule

cost

redu

ctio

n m

ay n

ot c

ontin

ue to

be

extra

pola

ted

•C

ost t

arge

t for

bro

ad (u

nsub

sidi

zed)

US

ado

ptio

n lik

ely

requ

ires

revo

lutio

nary

tech

nica

l inn

ovat

ions

Md

lt

df

•M

odul

e co

st a

nd p

erfo

rman

ce

•P

ower

ele

ctro

nics

effi

cien

cy a

nd re

liabi

lity

•B

oSin

stal

latio

nco

sts

•B

oS,i

nsta

llatio

nco

sts

•Fo

cus

on h

igh

cost

ele

ctric

ity m

arke

ts m

ay re

duce

the

ince

ntiv

e fo

r suc

h in

dust

rial i

nves

tmen

ts•

Suc

cess

in th

e U

S m

arke

t at $

1/W

will

ena

ble

US

co

mpa

nies

to le

ad in

oth

er re

gion

s of

the

wor

ld

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

amS

lide

24

Than

k Y

ou

Conta

ct Inf

orma

tion:

John

Lus

hets

kySo

lar E

nerg

y Tec

hnolo

gies

PM

Prog

ram

Mana

ger

U.S.

Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Email

:Em

ail:

john

.lush

etsk

y@ee

.doe

.gov

Phon

e: 20

2-28

7-16

85on

the w

eb:

www.

solar

.ener

gy.g

ov

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Te

chno

logi

es P

rogr

amS

lide

25S

lide

25