solar power in albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · solar power in alberta m.t....
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Solar Power in Alberta
M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock
May 16th, 2012
Department of Electrical and Computer EngineeringUniversity of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
![Page 2: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Project Overview
• Objective: understand PV’s potential role in Albertan and Canadian environment
• Approach: iterative data collection and model construction; regular criticism from solar group
• Deliverable: flexible, realistic scenario modelling
![Page 3: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Today• Introduction to Alberta
• Physical Properties - what’s here?
• Economic Properties - what can we do?
• Electrical Infrastructure - what’s in place?
• The Model
• Terminology
• Inputs & Outputs
• Preliminary Scenarios
![Page 4: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
AlbertaPhysical Properties
•Land use•Total area: 661,848 km2
•Agriculture area: 211,044 km2
![Page 5: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
AlbertaPhysical Properties
•Average mean daily irradiance for tilted surfaces
•AB & SK highest irradiance in Canada,
•~12.5 MJ m-2 for 60° surface•AB human energy use totally dominated by agriculture (6 TW in AB!)
![Page 6: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
AlbertaEconomic Properties
•Population density•Population: 3,645,257 (2011)
•Four commitment levels:•GDP: ??•Provincial budget: ??•Oil & gas investments: ??
• Individual household: ??
![Page 7: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
AlbertaEconomic Properties
•Population density•Population: 3,645,257 (2011)
•Four commitment levels:•GDP: 178 Billion•Provincial budget: ??•Oil & gas investments: ??
• Individual household: ??
![Page 8: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
AlbertaEconomic Properties
•Population density•Population: 3,645,257 (2011)
•Four commitment levels:•GDP: 178 Billion•Provincial budget: 41.1 Billion•Oil & gas investments: ??
• Individual household: ??
![Page 9: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
AlbertaEconomic Properties
•Population density•Population: 3,645,257 (2011)
•Four commitment levels:•GDP: 178 Billion•Provincial budget: 41.1 Billion•Oil & gas investments: 24.2 billion (2011)
• Individual household: ??
![Page 10: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
AlbertaEconomic Properties
•Population density•Population: 3,645,257 (2011)
•Four commitment levels:•GDP: 178 Billion•Provincial budget: 41.1 Billion•Oil & gas investments: 24.2 billion (2011)
• Individual household: 60 thousand?
![Page 11: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
AlbertaElectrical Infrastructure
•Transmission (blue), Generation (red)
•21,000 km
•$106 per km installed•21 billion replacement cost•13.8 GW nameplate capacity
•12.5 GW proposed
Coal: 6.2 GWNG: 5.4 GWHydro: 0.9 GW
Wind: 0.9 GWBiomass: 0.4 GWWaste : 0.06 GW
![Page 12: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Today• Introduction to Alberta
• Physical Properties - what’s here?
• Economic Properties - what can we do?
• Electrical Infrastructure - what’s in place?
• The Model
• Terminology
• Inputs & Outputs
• Preliminary Scenarios
![Page 13: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
TerminologyInternal Rate of Return
Purchase Bond
Collect Interest
Time
![Page 14: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
TerminologyInternal Rate of Return
•Economic metric for evaluating projects
•Annualized compound return rate that sets net present value of project cash flows to zero
•Used to screen projects; if IRR is not above minimum acceptable rate of return, project does not go forward
•Shell IRRs; 10% to 30%
Time
Construction
Decommissioning
Revenue
Operations
Purchase Bond
Collect Interest
Time
![Page 15: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
TerminologyEnergy Return on Investment
•Physical metric for evaluating technologies and projects
•EROI must be > 1
![Page 16: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
ModelInputs & Outputs
Model
cm2/kWh
km2/MWh
EROI
IRR
¢/kWh
Irradiance: MWh/m2
Panel Lifetime
Panel Efficiency
kWh/Wp
$/Wp
¢/kWh Subsidy
Transmission Costs
W/m2
![Page 17: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
ScenariosFull Industrial Effort
•25 billion•Utility scale PV ~ $5/Wp•5 GWp nameplate, ~ 120 km2
(57 km2 panel area, x2 for spacing & infrastructure, no transmission lines, no transmission losses)
•Expected output 1.44 GW(12 W m-2, similar to other utility scale deployments worldwide, SEGS III-VII 10.1 W m-1, 10% of current AB)
• IRR of 12% requires 25 ¢/kWh(2012 dollars, no depreciation, operating or disposal)
SEGS III-VII
![Page 18: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Scenarios Full Household Effort
•Taschuk rooftop•168 m2
•Heliene 72m (300 Wp, $2.93/Wp, 16%, 2 m2, 80% 25 year warranty, rooftop install, free grad student labor)
•Edmonton: 4.5 GJ m-2 a-1
•18 W m-2 average, 3 kW total•Costs 74k; 657 MWh produced•11.2 ¢/kWh; $250 per month •EROI: 3.71
![Page 19: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Solar Power in Alberta
M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock
May 16th, 2012
Department of Electrical and Computer EngineeringUniversity of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
![Page 20: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Solar Power in Alberta:Auxiliary Slides
M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock
March 16th, 2012
Department of Electrical and Computer EngineeringUniversity of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
![Page 21: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
AlbertaNatural Gas
•Area: 661,848 km2
•Agriculture area: 211,044 km2
• crop albedo: 0.2
• • fds
•
![Page 22: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
ScenariosFour Commitment Levels
•GDP: 178 Billion•Provincial Budget: 41.1 Billion•Oil & gas investments: 24.2 billion (2011)
• Individual household: 60 thousand?
![Page 23: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
ScenariosAlberta Total Effort
•180 Billion•~12.5 MJ m-2 for 60° surface•144 W m-2 average incident, 29 W m-2 for Si cell
• 13.8 GW nameplate by solar?• 476 km2
•≈30 billion for panels ($2/Wp)• balance of system, land, transmission lines, grid upgrades?
![Page 24: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
ScenariosSun Party wins in 2016
•~12.5 MJ m-2 for 60° surface•144 W m-2 average incident, 29 W m-2 for Si cell
• 13.8 GW nameplate by solar?• 476 km2
•≈30 billion for panels ($2/Wp)• balance of system, land, transmission lines, grid upgrades?
![Page 25: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Solar Power in Alberta:Human Scale
M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock
March 16th, 2012
Department of Electrical and Computer EngineeringUniversity of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
![Page 26: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Human ScaleAverage Power
Public Domain
1.1 kW350 W
KkmdSpreeTom
88 W
![Page 27: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Human ScaleAverage Power
Public Domain
900 kW
40 kW
![Page 28: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Human ScaleAverage Power
Public Domain
570 MW
![Page 29: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Human ScaleAverage Power
18 GW
Rehman
![Page 30: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Human ScaleEnergy Use
• China: 1 kW / person
• World: 2 kW / person
• Japan: 5 kW / person
• Britain: 8 kW / person
• Canada: 11 kW / person
Data: MacKay (2009) Sustainable Energy - without the hot air
Defence0.2
Stuff2.5
Food0.6
Heating1.5
Lighting0.2
Jet Flights1.3Gadgets
0.2
Car1.7
![Page 31: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Human ScaleCanadian Energy Use
Defence0.2
Stuff2.5
Food0.6
Heating1.5
Lighting0.2
Jet Flights1.3Gadgets
0.2
Car1.7
Public Domain
11 kW
![Page 32: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Human ScaleEnergy Use and Life Expectancy
• China: 1 kW / person
• World: 2 kW / person
• Japan: 5 kW / person
• Britain: 8 kW / person
• Canada: 11 kW / person
Data: 2008, World Bank
![Page 33: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Human ScaleEnergy Use and Infant Mortality
Data: 2008, World Bank
• China: 1 kW / person
• World: 2 kW / person
• Japan: 5 kW / person
• Britain: 8 kW / person
• Canada: 11 kW / person
![Page 34: Solar Power in Albertamtaschuk/documents/taschuk-20120516-sola… · Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051810/601ae40562d8f65a783da026/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Major TitleMinor Title
• Text