somali region early warning department,disaster concept & history of disaster 22 – 23 march...
TRANSCRIPT
Somali Region Early warning
department ,Disaster concept &
history of disaster22 – 23 March 2012
March 22 -23
Jijiga
OVERVIEW
1. Introductory note on disasters
2. Overview of Disaster in Ethiopia
3. Hazard trends in the Somali Region
4. Learning from the past
5. Situation scenarios in 2011
INTRODUCTION NOTE ON DISASTERS
Cause human tragedy – Deaths, displacement & suffering
Cause crippling economic losses – costing countries millions
Hamper development – shifting of resources & logistical
disruptions, halting progress of dev. projects
Increase future vulnerability to disasters
Increase dependence on humanitarian assistance
Increase social unrest & reduce political stability
OVERVIEW OF DISASTERS IN ETHIOPIA
No of events: 1980-2010No of people killed: 313,486
No of people affected: 57,382,354
Average affected per year: 1,851,044
Ecomomic Damage (US$ X 1,000):
31,700
Ecomomic Damage per year (US$ X 1,000):
1,023
OVERVIEW OF DISASTERS IN ETHIOPIA
Number of Disasters Reported
OVERVIEW OF DISASTERS IN ETHIOPIA
Top 10 Disasters – Affected peopleDisaster Date Affected Remark
Drought 2003 12,600,000
Drought 1983 7,750,000
Drought 1987 7,000,000
Drought 1989 6,500,000
Drought 2008 6,400,000
Drought 2009 6,200,000
Drought 1999 4,900,000
Drought 2005 2,600,000
Drought 1997 986,200
Flood 2006 361,600
OVERVIEW OF DISASTERS IN ETHIOPIA
Killed by Disaster Type
OVERVIEW OF DISASTERS IN ETHIOPIA
No affected & Killed by Disaster Type
HAZARD TRENDS IN THE SOMALI REGION
Major hazards in SRS: Droughts, diseases , Floods & Conflict
Drought is historically the biggest killer, followed by diseases
SRS is one of the most prone areas to droughts & conflicts
Droughts have grown in frequency over the last 2 decades
Recovery period is reduced, increasing vulnerability
Numbers of IDP & destitute groups are growing over time
Dependence on humanitarian assistance is therefore growing
Critical trend that has serious implications for Dev’t & security
HAZARD TRENDS IN THE SOMALI REGION
SRS Droughts 1999-2011Year Severity Affected areas
1999-2000 Very severe 7 Deyr receiving zones
2002-2003 Very severe Shinile & FIK
2004 Moderate Gode
2005 Severe Gode, Liban & Afder
2007 Severe Gode, Fik, Korahe, Warder & Dagahbur
2008 Very severe & deyr receiving zones
2009 Severe/ very severe All the Region
LEARNING FROM THE PAST One of the basic objectives of this workshop is to help us predict the
likely social and economic consequences of 2011 gu failure
One way of predicting the future outcome of such an event is to look
the outcome of a similar event in the past
Which drought year we need to choose for analysis?
The most similar in asset levels, market situation , migration pattern,
disease prevalence and levels of stress
The most likely drought that comes into picture using such criteria is
that of 2007-2008
LEARNING FROM THE PASTComparison of the drought situations of 2007/08 & 20110/11
Indicator 2007/08 2010/11
Rainfall deyr rains failed deyr rains failed
Needy people 1.6 million 1.7 million
Livestock Mortality at March of 08
Mortality is just starting
Production Crops/livestock failed in 7 zones
Crops/livestock failed in 7 zones
ToT Shoat = 50 -65 kg Average shoat =50kg
Migration high High
Disease No outbreak No outbreak
LEARNING FROM THE PASTComparison of the drought situations of 2007/08 & 20110/11Indicator 2008 2011
Rainfall very poor Gu in9 zones
Below normal rains predicted ?
Needy people 1.9 million Possible upward trend?
Livestock High mortality in the hagaa
Likely to happen in the absence of gu rains
Production Crops failed in most areas
May perform poorly
ToT Shoat = 23 - 40 kg Average shoat=?
Migration Large scale Likely to increase further?
Disease Increase prevalence ?
LEARNING FROM THE PASTNDVI in May 2008
LEARNING FROM THE PASTNDVI in May 2008
LEARNING FROM THE PAST
LEARNING FROM THE PAST
LEARNING FROM THE PAST
LEARNING FROM THE PAST
SITUATION SCENARIOS IN 2011
SITUATION SCENARIOS IN 2012
Basic current Facts
Rains failed in seven zones led to
Emergency water tankering for around 1 million people
Emergency food requirement for 1.7 people
Likely increase of numbers and needs in the months ahead
Livestock in the deyr areas is facing dire feed & water scarcity
Animals failing to trek to water points & grazing areas already reported
among the nugul species
A failure of the coming gu rains will be a decisive blow for both
SITUATION SCENARIOS IN 2011
Possible scenarios cases
Worst case scenario – complete failure of rains
Mid level case scenario – rains perform inadequately but rains do
not fail completely – most likely scenario
Best case scenario – rains perform normal to good
Assumption – no large scale disease outbreaks and dramatic
changes in other food security and livelihood parameters beyond
the influence of rainfall.
SITUATION SCENARIOS IN 2011
Possible scenarios cases
Details of each scenario case will need to be developed
Its implications for response have to be clearly defined and
quantified
Resource requirements and availability have to be identified in
each case
The gap and potential sources and mechanisms of bridging that
gap need to be also outlined.
Thank you