SOME ASPECTS OF THE SCHOOL LEAVER TRACER PROJECT - - SWAZILAND

by Gerard Sullivan

Rapid developmcnt of the secondary education system since Independence in 1967 has raised the prospect of a situation emerging in Swaziland, as in other LDCs, where such expansion outstrips the capacity of the modern sector of the economy to create enough employment for all those entering the labour market from secondary school. Tracer surveys were therefore commissioned in 1978 by the Ministry of Education to investigate the experience of recent cohorts of school leavers after three and five years of secondary education and to provide a data base for future planning (Sullivan, 1981).. The paper discusses some of the design problems asso- ciated with tracer surveys and some findings on the links between the activities of school lcavers and their performance in examinations.

Methodologically, the School Leaver Tracer Project adopted a proportionate stratified random sampling design for the two national surveys in which the target popula- tions, Form 3 leavers who had completed the Junior Certificate Examination (JC) and Form 5 leavers who had completed the Cambridge Overseas School Certificate Examination (COSC) were divided into strata defined by five main variables; year left school, school district, type of school, sex and examination group. Examination results were consolidated for this purpose into three groups reflecting high, average and low performances. Stratifica- tion ensured adequate representation of the strata variables in the samples and reduced the standard error attached to sample estimates, but, since recovered samples are inevitably not in the same proportions as intended samples, the calculation of precise standard errors for sub-sample estimates is further

complicated.

Associations between examination results and the post-school experience of leavers indicated that the JC examination was not as effective as the COSC examination in demarcating opportunities for employment and training. A pass or failure in this examination had no significant effect on whether a Form 3 school leaver was 'occupied' or 'unemployed' immediately after leaving school. Moreover, since the actual promotion rate between Form 3 and Form 4 was around 56%, a large minority of those who failed JC continued with their education in Form 4 even though existing regulations precluded this option. Govern- ment policy envisages a 10 year basic education, terminal for the majority of children on completion of JC and confining Form 4 entrants to those with Group 1 performances, about 35% of the total. The weak dis- criminatory quality of the JC examination would appear to militate against the value of such a policy, which in any case would lead to a much larger number of secondary school leavers than has previously been experienced in Swaziland looking for training and employment opportunities.

Staying on at secondary school also bestows financial benefits. Form 5 leavers earn on average one and a half times as much as Form 3 leavers, and there is a pecuniary advantage in leaving the education system as a 'COSC failure' rather than as a 'JC failure'. In addition to the higher probability of getting a job after leaving at this level instead of after completing Form 3, there is therefore a strong financial incentive to stay on at school.

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Educaci6n y migraci6n interna.

En Abril de 1981 el Grupo de Estudios de Educaci6n de la Asociacidn Brit:inica de Estudios de Desarrollo celebr6 unas jornadas de estudio bajo el lema "Educaci6n y Migraci6n" en la Universidad de Liverpool.* Las sictc contribuciones que se insertan a continuaci6n son un extenso sumario de las actas en las que se ofrece una revista general y los casos de einco paises, cuatro africanos y uno latinoamericano.

La conclusi6n, en sentido amplio, es que la tendencia a emigrar de las ~ireas rurales a las urbanas tiende a aumentar al mismo tiempo que los dxitos educativos. Sin embargo, los factores estructurales dentro de una sociedad y tambi6n las circunstancias econ6micas en proceso de cambio pueden afectar esta relaci6n. Una mayor oportunidad de escolarizaci6n tenderfi a reducir la cmigraci6n de los nuevos escolarizados, se supone que para beneficio de las ~ireas donde viven.

':'Nota: Las jornadas de estudio fueron organizadas por el Dr. W. T. S. Gould del Departamento de Geografia a quien esta revista agradece sinceramente su gesto de suministrarnos estas contribuciones.

L ' E D U C A T I O N E T LA M I G R A T I O N I N T E R N E

Aper~u

En Avril 1981, un des groupes du "Development Studies Association" (Grande-Bretagne) a organis6 /t l'Universit6 de Liverpool (1~, un colloque sur "L'Educat ion et la Migration". Les sept communications qui suivent constituent un r6sum6 ddtaill6 des sdances, ainsi qu'un aperqu g6ndral accompagn6 de 'cas' spdcifiques relevds dans cinq pays, quatre en Afrique et un en Amdrique Latine.

On peut conclure de ce compte-rendu que la tendance a 6migrer de communautds rurales vers des z6nes urbaines crok proportionnellement au niveau culturel. Cependant, certains 61dments dans la structure m6me d'une socidt6, ainsi que de nouvelles conjonctures dconomiques, sont susceptibles de modifier ce rapport entre migration et culture. Un enseignement de plus en plus accessible aura tendance croit-on /t rdduire la migration des 'moins instruits' en faveur du retour ~t leur province d'origine.

('~ Ce colloque a 6t6 organis6 par le Dr. W. T. S. Gould de la Section de GGographie. L'lnternational Journal of Educational Development tient b. lui exprimer sa vive reconnaissance de lt, i avoir communiquG cet aper~u.

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REFERENCES

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CALDWELL, J. C. (1968) Determinants of rural-urban migration in Ghana, Population Studies, 22 (3), 361-96.

CALDWELL, J. C. (1969) African rural-urban migration: the movements to Ghana's towns, (Canberra, Australian National University, and London, Hurst).

CONROY, J. D. (1976) Education, employment and migration in Papua New Guinea, (Australian National University, Development Studies Centre, Monograph No. 3).

DORE, R. (1976) The diploma disease: education, qualillcation and development (Unwin Education Books, 32).

FOSTER, P. (1965) Education and social change in Ghana (Routledge and Kegan Paul).

FOSTER, P. (1966) The vocational school ]allacy in educational planning, in C. A. Anderson and M. J. Bowman (eds.) Education and economic development (Chicago, Aldine Press), 142-63.

GOULD, W. T. S. (1981) Education and migration: a review of trends and issues, Liverpool Papers in Human Geography, 2.

LIPTON, M. (1980) Migration from rural areas of poor countries: the impact of rural productivity and income distribution, World Development, 8 (1), 1-24.

SIMMONS, A., S. DIAZ-BRIQUETS and A. A. LAQUIAN (1977) Social change and internal migration: a review ot research findings ]rom Africa, Asia and Latin America, (Ottawa, Canada, International Development Research Centre, Report of the Migration Review Task Force).

SINCLAIR, M. E., with K. LILLIS (1980) School and community in the Third World (Croom Helm for Institute of Development Studies).

SULLIVAN, G. (1981) From school . . to work. Report on the school leaver tracer project (Oxford, Cotswold Press).

TODARO, M. P. (1976) Internal migration in developing countries (International Labour Office, Geneva).

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