some costs of inaction prof. mikael skou andersen, aarhus university (dk)
TRANSCRIPT
Some costs of inaction
Prof. Mikael Skou Andersen, Aarhus University (DK)
Outline of presentation
• Implications of precautionary principle for socio-economic analysis
• Lead case: costs of inaction• Drinking water nitrate: a case for risk
analysis• Outlook: green growth and
technological innovation
Principles of EU environmental policy
• Precaution
• Prevention
• Polluter-pays
• TFEU art. 191.2
”Union policy on the environment shall aim at a high level of protection taking into account the diversity of situations in the various regions of the Union
It shall be based on the precautionary principle and on the principles that preventive action should be taken, that environmental damage as a priority be rectified at source and that the polluter should pay”
Precautionary principle in EU law
• Commission communication COM (2000)1 on the precautionary principle:• ”The precautionary principle applies where scientific evidence is
insufficient, inconclusive or uncertain and preliminary scientific evaluation indicates that there are reasonable grounds for concern that the potentially dangerous effects on the environment, human animal or plant health may be inconsistent with the high level of protection chosen by the EU”
• European Court: Paraquat case (Sweden vs. Commission T-229/04)• ‘the existence of solid evidence, which while not resolving
scientific uncertainty, may reasonably raise doubts as to the safety of a substance’, when interpreted ‘in combination with the precautionary principle’
Weak precautionary principle
• Rio declaration, principle 15 (1992)• ”In order to protect the environment, the
precautionary approach shall be widely applied by States according to their capabilities. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation”
• Adopted by 172 countries incl. USA• ‘cost-effective’ vs. ’lack of scientific certainty’ ?
Socio-economic analysis
• European Union requirements• Structural funds• WFD art. 4: proportionality clause
• Revival: regulatory impact analysis• Addressing safety, health and environment• deregulation agenda: CBA
• Origin: US flood control act (1936)• Addressing floods and economic crisis• Roosevelt’s New Deal: ‘orderly process’
Will CBA get the answers right ?
• Costs of measures are usually fairly straight-forward to quantify and monetize
• Benefits of measures will depend on assessment of the risk in question – do we need ‘proof’ ?• Need to quantify relations between cause and effect• Need to value and monetize key impacts
• Critique (Ackerman and Heinzerling, 2005)• “If today’s methods of CBA had been applied in the past, would it have
given its blessings to the early regulations which now look so successful in retrospect?” No: “The technique would have gotten the answer wrong”
Knowledge
Lack of knowledge
Boundary between our knowledge and lack of
knowledge
Research and development
From: Poul Harremöes
• research effort is biased towards ‘established’ issues and problems
Case of Lead (Pb)
• Highly Toxic – Acute effects -> Saturnism
• Accumulates in– bones– brain– Liver
• Many chronic health impacts– Neurodevelopment (children)– Anemia (Adults)
• Biomarkers– Pb in blood (short term exp.)– Pb in urine (short term exp.)– Pb in bones (long term exp.)
• Lead (Pb) accumulation in body
• Age Dependent Biokinetic Model – ADBM accounts for body burden
– Specifies the contribution to Pb blood from inhalation
CHILDRENS IQ-LOSS
Pb blood / Pb air
• dependent of age• dependent of exposure time
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Day of exposure (day 0 = birth)
ug
/dl
L A U
Pb air - 1
Pb air - 3
Pb air - 2
IMPACT PATHWAY APPROACH Externe (2005) Methodology
Local scale (MWCP as
emission source)
Long term conditions
Danish conditions
Quantification of Emission
Modeling of Increment in Air Concentration
Concentration-Response Function
Monetary Evaluation of Impacts
STEPS
Atmospheric model
Bio-kinetic model
Loss of IQ points
IQ loss / Pb blood function
Exposed population
FOCUS ON MODELS
REDUCED LIFETIME EARNINGS
• Cognitive impairments reduce income by 2-3% per IQ-point lost
External costs of lead: €1.5/gramPb (r=1.4%)
Up to 1985:• 1 gram of Pb per liter petrol• imply annual social costs of 4-6 % of GDP
(Schwartz 1993; Grosse et al. 2002; Pizzol et. al., 2010)
Implications of lead case
• No-threshold for impact on childrens IQ has been thoroughly documented
• Evidence triggered ban after 50 years of controversy
• Careful inspection of the early OSH evidence presented in 1925 suggests need for ban
• A CBA-framework extended with risk analysis
Drinking water nitrate case
• WHO guide value of 50 mgNO3 /liter reflects acute toxicity; no safety factor
• IARC level 2A: probably carcinogenic to humans via nitrosation – chronic impacts
• Epidemiological studies suggest carcinogenic impacts >25 mgNO3 /liter
• Which number for the benefits of avoided impacts to be used in SEA/CBA ?
European Environment Agency
European Environment Agency
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.02
0.03
0.23
0.080.07
0.05
0.480.30
0.020.03
0.39
0.07
1.340.34
0.15
0.05
0.07
0.00
0.03
0.00
0.15
0.02
1.29 with illustrative health-related external costs
€/kgNapplied
(NUTS1 averages; EXIOPOL)
Biogas: vehicle for nitrogen and climate innovation
Århus 23 November 2009
Pb in products
• Flow of Metals in waste
What role for precautionary principle ?
• Socio-economic assessment (incl. CBA) is often a mandatory requirement in providing support to decision-makers
• Careful screening of potential impacts (risk analysis) needs to be an integral part in considering cost-effective measures
• The precautionary principle places the burden of proof on the proponents of the activities in question, not on socio-economic analysis or the victims of pollution. A high level of protection is emphasised in TFEU.
European Environment Agency
Reference
Andersen MS and Clubb DO, 2013. Understanding and accounting for costs of inaction, Chapter 23 in Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation, EEA Report No. 1/2013, Copenhagen: European Environment Agency. http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/late-lessons-2#!