some forecast impacts of toll increases: the dulles toll road

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Some Impacts of Forecast Toll Increases:

The Dulles Toll RoadTerry Maynard

Reston Citizens Association

Reston 2020 Committee

May 4, 2012

5/4/2012 1



CDM Smith forecasts one-way Dulles Toll Road tolls will need to increase

nine-fold, more than three-fold in real terms, over the next four decades.

$2.25

$4.50

$6.75

$8.75

$10.75

$12.75

$14.75

$16.75

$18.75

$4.39

$5.82$6.67

$7.24 $7.59 $7.76 $7.79 $7.71

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

$16.00

$18.00

$20.00

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

2 0 1 8

2 0 2 3

2 0 2 8

2 0 3 3

2 0 3 8

2 0 4 3

2 0 4 8

Forecast Tolls on the Dulles Toll Road, 2012-2050,

Nominal and Real Prices

Forecast Toll Real Toll ($2012 @ 2.5%/yr)

Source: CDM Smith Preliminary Traffic & Revenue Forecast, January 2012

5/4/2012 2



For regular toll road users, annual toll costs will increase from less than

$1,000 to more than $8,000 annually in nominal and to $3,000 annually

in 2012 dollars over the forecast period.

$1,980

$2,970

$3,850

$4,730

$5,610

$6,490

$7,370

$8,250

$770$942

$2,793$3,033 $3,179 $3,251 $3,263 $3,228

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Annual Toll Cost for Regular Dulles Toll Road User

Toll Costs per Year (44 Work Weeks)

Inflation Adjusted Toll Costs per Year (44 Work Weeks, 2.5%/Yr)

Source: CDM Smith Preliminary Traffic & Revenue Forecast, February 2012

5/4/2012 3



The added cost of toll road use will consume nearly half of the

gains in real disposable Fairfax County median household income

over the forecast period for regular toll road users.

8.0%

21.3%

1.9%

8.8%48.0%

3.7%

3.1%

3.5%

1.7%

Forecast Share of Spending of Cumulative Real Disposable

Household Income Gains, Fairfax County, 2012-2048,

for Regular Dulles Toll Road Users

Food & Beverage

Housing

Apparel

Transportation

Toll Increases

Medical Care

Recreation

Educ. & Comm.

Other

• A regular toll road user pays the

full toll twice per day, five days

per week, 44 weeks per year.

• US Census ACS estimates Fairfax

median household income in2010 was $103,000.

• Taxes consume 26.6% of HH

income per published sources.

• BLS spending categories and

2/2012 CPI spending shares.

• Income and inflation are

projected to grow at rates of the

last 20 years.

• Inflation (CPI-US) = 2.6%/year

• FC income growth = 2.8%/year.

5/4/2012 4



While the current cost per mile of Dulles tolls is near the national

average for toll roads of its type, tolls will octuple in nominal terms and

increase 250% in real terms over the forecast period.

$0.31

$0.47

$0.61

$0.74

$0.88

$1.02

$1.16

$1.30

$0.16

$0.18$0.20

$0.23$0.26 $0.30 $0.34

$0.38

$0.00

$0.15

$0.30

$0.45

$0.60

$0.75

$0.90

$1.05

$1.20

$1.35

$1.50

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 7

2 0 2 2

2 0 2 7

2 0 3 2

2 0 3 7

2 0 4 2

2 0 4 7

Dulles Toll Road Cost per Mile, One-Way Full Length,

Nominal & Inflation-Adjusted

Full Length Cost/Mile (Greenway-I495)

Inflation-Adjusted 2012 Full Toll Cost/Mile (2.5%/Yr)

5/4/2012 5



Forecasts indicated that those unwilling to pay the increasingly

exorbitant tolls will divert to local roads, adding some 30,000 vehicles

per day to already congested streets and highways.

2012 2014 2030

Dulles Toll Road Avg. Daily Traffic 194 162 154

Silver Line Average Weekday Traffic - 70 86

NEW Transit Riders on Silver Line (AWT) - 2 10

Added Daily Local Street Traffic - 30 30

194

162154

-

70

86

- 210

-

30 30

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

T h o u s a n d s o f U

s e r s

Changing Toll Road, Rail,

& Local Street Use

(in 1000s)

--Toll road usage slides with

high tolls and Metrorail arrival.

--Metrorail use generates few

new transit passengers.

--Toll road users divert to local

streets, adding to congestion.

--None of this counts added

local traffic created by new

residents or jobs.

Sources:

--CDM Smith Preliminary Traffic

& Revenue Forecast, 02/2012

--Federal Transit Administration,

Phase 1 Project Monitoring Reports,

5/4/2012 6

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