some thoughts on high-skilled migration and immigration reform
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Some Thoughts on High-skilled Migration and Immigration Reform. Engineering Deans Institute New York City April 16, 2013 Panel Discussion Mark Regets National Science Foundation, Arlington and Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn (Affiliations for biographical purposes only) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Some Thoughts on High-skilled Migration and Immigration Reform
Engineering Deans Institute
New York CityApril 16, 2013
Panel Discussion
Mark Regets
National Science Foundation, Arlingtonand Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn
(Affiliations for biographical purposes only)[email protected] 703-292-7813
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
Rest of World
USA
Number of Postsecondary (Tertiary) degree holders: 1950-2010
Derived from Barro-Lee estimates of education attainment, 9/4/2011 data release
United States has had slower growth in degrees in the natural sciences and engineering relative to population:(Comparison of First Natural S&E University Degrees issued to 20-24 year old population)
ChinaBelgium
United StatesAustria
SwitzerlandGreece
NorwayGermany
IrelandNetherlands
JapanSpain
DenmarkFrance
PortugalUnited Kingdom
SingaporeItaly
SwedenSouth Korea
FinlandTaiwan
0 5 10 15 20 25
1975 1990
2005
Ratio of S&E first university diplomas granted to 1/5 population aged 20-24
Do U.S. Immigration and Visa Policies Reflect the Way R&D is Now Done?
5
Changes in how S&T is done:
• More S&T activity of all types is done across borders– Teams and collaborations physically
located in multiple countries– From basic research to product
development to technical services• Global capacity for S&T growing rapidly
in most part of the world.• S&T capacity much less centralized,
U.S. recently about 1/3 of world R&D
6
Multiple Node Knowledge Network
• Increased and more complex flows of students, workers, and finances
• Increased regional S&T collaboration and links between regions
• Global talent search, not necessarily for an “Einstein”
• Global education and careers
Do we already have too many high-skill worker?
In every decade, employment in science and engineering occupations has grown faster than the workforce as a whole
1960–70 1970–80 1980–90 1990–2000 2000–07
5.6%
3.3%
4.8%
3.6%
2.2%1.8%
2.4%
1.8%
1.1%1.4%
Average annual growth rate of employment
Workforce in S&E occupations Workforce ≥18 years old
Employment has also been growing faster than degree production (until recently)
1970–80 1980–90 1990–2000 2000–07
3.3%
4.8%
3.6%
2.2%1.7%
1.2%1.7%
2.2%
Average annual growth rate of employment in S&E occu-pations and in S&E bachelor's degree production
S&E occupations S&E Bachelors
Some Parts of the STEM labor market have chronic issues:
Older IT workers without EE or CS degrees face rehire problems if laid off.
Young biomedical Ph.D.s headed for academic research face many years before directing their own research.
Some fields (i.e. geology, aerospace eng.) are subject to boom or bust because of the concentration of employment in particular industries.
• Restrictions on labor supply may not be a very effective way to ease the pain on any of these issues
.
Family-based and skill-based immigration are not opposites
Most important reason given by immigrant scientists and engineers for their decision to come to the United States: 2003
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
Family-relatedreasons
Educationalopportunities
Job or economicopportunities
Scientific orprofessionalinfrastructure
Other
Perc
ent
Source:Nirmala Kannankutty and Joan Burrelli, Why Did They Come to the United States? A Profile of Immigrant Scientists and Engineers, National Science Foundation, 2007
12
S&E graduate degree holders who first entered the U.S. with student visas: Percent with U.S. citizenship by
years since entry to U.S. and years since degree (2003)
010
20
30
40
5060
70
80
90
100
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35+Years since U.S. entry or Years since degree
Perc
ent w
ith U
.S. C
itize
nshi
p
Master's: By years in U.S.
Master's: By years sincedegreeDoctorate: By years in U.S.
Doctorate: By years sincedegree
Source: NSF/SRS SESTAT (2003)Note: Includes only those resident in the United States in 2003, and does not represent naturalization rates for all foreign students.
Postdoc Issues• Around half of postdocs in the United States have
their PhD from abroad. Most now enter on H-1b visas.
• Many provisions in proposed bill are designed to require paying a premium wage over American, prior efforts to recruit Americans, and other provisions that can cause problems for the use of H-1Bs in normal hiring or recruitment.
BACKUP SLIDES
15
Many U.S. citizen grad students are in departments dependent upon foreign students
SOURCE: NSF/SRS Survey of Graduate Students and Postdocs (GSS) 2006
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 -
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Skilled laborersIntracompany transfereesEngineersInstructorsResearchersProfessors
Entries into Japan of workers with a type of temporary work visa associated with high skills
Source: Japan Statistical Handbook
United States32%
United Kingdom15%
Germany13%
France11%
Australia8%
Japan3%
Canada2%
Spain2%
18 Other OECD14%
1.4 million in 1998/1999
United States23%
United Kingdom18%
Germany10%
France9%
Australia9%
Canada5%
Japan5%
New Zealand2%
18 Other OECD18%
2.6 million in 2007
Share of foreign students in higher education among 26 reporting OECD countries: 1998 and 2007
ChinaSingapore
BelgiumAustria
GermanyGreece
SwitzerlandSpain
United StatesPortugal
FranceSouth Korea
JapanIreland
United KingdomSwedenNorway
ItalyNetherlands
DenmarkFinlandTaiwan
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
1975 1990
2005
Ratio of first university degrees granted to 1/5 of population aged 20-24
The proportion of population earning degrees has increased almost everywhere, including other developed countries.(First University Degrees issued to 20-24 year old population)