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Sonnenenergie – Energiekonversion und N t i t tiNetzintegration
Joachim Luther
SymposiumDer Umbau unseres Energiesystems – Strategien und OptionenOldenburg 14.Mai 2012
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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Benefits of an advanced energy system,based on the sustainable use of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency
Protection of the natural life support system
Reduction of energy povertyin developing countries
Promotion of peace, by reducing the dependence on regionallyp g yconcentrated energy resources
Energy securityEnergy security
Promotion of structural changes (future-compliant industries & jobs)
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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Renewable energies, global potentials
Theoretical Technical SustainableTheoreticalPotential[EJ/year]
TechnicalPotential[EJ/year]
SustainablePotential[EJ/year]
Biomass 2 400 800 100Geothermal 41 700 000 720 22H d 504 000 160 12Hydro 504 000 160 12Solar 3 900 000 280 000 10 000Wind 110 000 1 700 >1 000Wind 110 000 1 700 >1 000
Global energy demand 2008: 492 EJ/aGlobal energy demand 2008: 492 EJ/a
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), Flagship Report 2011
Solar electricity generation (I),y g ( )optical concentration, examples
Solar thermal (CSP) Photovoltaics (CPV)
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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Solar thermal (CSP) Photovoltaics (CPV)
Solar electricity generation (II),flat plate photovoltaics, examples
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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Market shares of PV technologies
Other90%
100%100%
90%
a-Si
ClS70%
80%80%
70% ClS
CdTe50%
60%60%
50%
Ribbon c-Si20%
30%
40%40%
30%
20% Multi c-SiMono c-Si
0%
10%
20%20%
10%
0%0%0%
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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Source: S. Glunz, Fraunhofer ISE; Data Photon Magazine
Cost break down of PV systems,
Silicon
silicon wafer PV, 2010
Silicon10% Ingots
4%BOS*,
installation/
Cell
engineering50%
Wafer8%Ce12%
ModuleModule16%
* BOS – balance of system (inverters, mounting system, cabling)
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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Sources: Barclays Capital, industry sources, SERIS market research, June 2011
New grid architecture and controlDispatchablerenewables
Conventionalpower plants
LDi t ib t d d
Consumer
Large-scalePV and off shore
Distributed andcentral control
Energy storage off-shorewind
Energy storage
FluctuatingSmart storagesCo-generation Fluctuatingrenewables
Smart storages(e-mobility)
Co generation(decentralised)
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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PV installations,data December 2011
Cumulative PV capacity globally installed 67 GW
PV fraction of global electricity generation ~ 0 4%PV fraction of global electricity generation 0.4%
Cumulative PV capacity installed in Germany* 25 GW
PV fraction of German electricity generation ~ 3%PV fraction of German electricity generation 3%
PV capacity globally installed in 2011 28 GW
Average market growth rate since 2000 40%Average market growth rate since 2000 40%
Global market volume, 2010 US$75 billion
*peak electricity demand 2010: 78 GW
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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Sources: European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), SERIS market research 2011
Global cumulative PV capacity
70000
80000
50000
60000
MW
30000
40000
50000
capa
city
M
20000
30000
PV
0
10000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011eYear
Europe All other markets
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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Source: EPIA
Price experience (learning) curveSilicon-wafer based modules
10W
p
1987
2000
3rice
€ / W 1992
1996
2000
2008
Mod
ule
p
2003 2009
1
M
2010, 4th Qrt2011, 3rd Qrt
2011 4th Qrt
100 1000 10000 100000Cumulative Power MWp
2011, 4th Qrt
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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Sources: Fraunhofer ISE, PSE AG, SERIS, Barclays Capitalp
Cost, solar electricity
C t MonetisingCostCost[$/kWh]
Monetisingexternal costscompetitiveness
of PV electricity
Cost: grid electricity
Cost: PVelectricity
Time (years)Mass production, innovation
[years]
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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innovation
Cost reduction in solar electricity
Higher efficiency of energy conversiong y gy
Less material consumption
Low-cost materials
Optimised manufacture mass productionOptimised manufacture, mass production
Optimised module technologies
Optimised grid integration (smart grids)
Novel concepts of photovoltaic energy conversion
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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Silicon wafer technologies,routes to higher efficiency, examples and cost reductions
All-back-contact cells
Hetero-junction cellsHetero-junction cells
n-type silicon
Selective emitters
Better light trapping
Better surface passivation
Improved electrical contactsImproved electrical contacts
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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Less material consumption in PV,examples
Thin-film technologiesCdTCdTeSiliconClGSIII-V, plastic, dye
Ult thi fUltra-thin wafersTransfer technology (e.g. ion implantation for separation)p p )
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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Efficiencies of major PV technologies,j gMarch 2012
T h l B t Eff Eff i R kTechnology Best Effin lab (cells)
Eff inindustry
(modules)
Remarks
Mono-Si 25.0% 14-20% Pseudo-square wafers (125 mm)
Multi-Si 20.4% 14-18% Square wafers (156 mm)
CIS (CIGS) 20.3% 10-14% Uses Indium
CdTe 16.7% 10-12% Uses Tellurium and Cadmium
Micromorph Si 11.9% 8-10% Tandem cell (a-Si/μc-Si)
Amorphous Si 10.1% 5-7% Very thin cell (Si ~300 nm)
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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Thermodynamic limits,photovoltaic energy conversion
80%
100%ie
ncy
40%
60%
effic
40%
20%
T = 5777 K
0% 1 10 100 1000 10000optical concentrationTs = 5777 K
Tc = 300 K
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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Source: R. Sizmann 1991
Novel/conceivable PV technologies,
Concentrator PV (CPV),
gexamples
Concentrator PV (CPV),tandem solar cells (III-V materials)
Devices based on the concepts of organic and dye solar cellsorganic and dye solar cells
Novel tandem solar cells
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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New grid architecture and controlDispatchablerenewables
Conventionalpower plants
LDi t ib t d d
Consumer
Large-scalePV and off shore
Distributed andcentral control
Energy storage off-shorewind
Energy storage
FluctuatingSmart storagesCo-generation Fluctuatingrenewables
Smart storages(e-mobility)
Co generation(decentralised)
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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Smart grids,gmerging of power and information networks
Matching demand and generation on a centralised and decentralised level (“smart energy centres”):( smart energy centres ):
Control of less time-sensitive loadsTemporary storage (e g in EV’s)Temporary storage (e.g. in EV s)Smart tariffs
Large-area grids and inter-woven decentralised “smart energy centres”decentralised smart energy centres
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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Benefits of an advanced energy system,based on the sustainable use of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency
Protection of the natural life support system
Reduction of energy povertyin developing countries
Promotion of peace, by reducing the dependence on regionallyp g yconcentrated energy resources
Energy securityEnergy security
Promotion of structural changes (future-compliant industries & jobs)
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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