source: cjtf hoa nipr web site source- rand corporation
TRANSCRIPT
Source: CJTF HOA NIPR Web Site
Source- RAND Corporation
FOOD SCARCITY
15 – 39% 5 – 15% 1 – 5%
0.5 – 1.0%0.1 – 0.5%
0.0 – 0.1% not available
HIV prevalence in adults, end 2001
HIV/AIDS
Recoverable Crude Oil Futures (in billions of barrels)
0.1 0.1 to 1 1 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 100 > 100
Eckert VI Projection U. S. Geological Survey, C. Masters & R. M. Turner 1994
OIL
US presses Africa to turn on the tap of crude oil. By Carl Mortished, International Business Editor . July 29, 2002
NIGERIA
GAS
ALGERIA
ANGOLA
NAMBIA
LIBYA
EGYPT
SUDANNIGER
CHADMALI
ETHIOPIA
Transit Routes
The New Gulf Oil States
• Africa’s Oil Reserves are 8% of world crude reserves (UN Conference on Trade & Development)
• Sub-Saharan Africa produces as much as Iran, Venezuela and Mexico combined
• Output increased 36% in 10 years (2003 rpt)
• Most non OPEC• Accounts 16% US imports (2003)
– 25% in 10 years25% in 10 years
URANIUM
NIGER
NAMBIA
GABON
FRANC ZONE
Phases of Integration:
Customs Unions as entry point into community
A Common Market
A monetary Union
A Political Federation
Franc Zone Principles
• Free convertibility by French treasury of CFA francs
• Fixed exchange rates (French Franc/Euro peg)• Liberty of transfer free in the zone• Centralization of exchange reserves.
Operations account in French treasury , CFA central banks depositing 65% of their exchange reserves in exchange for convertibility– French veto over zone monetary policy if account
overdrawn
So What?
• Local Issues and Solutions Have Regional Impacts
• Vision Is Continental
• Interests Are “Vital”
• Commitment Is Generational
Spreading Democracy
CENTCOM Brief
National Security Goals/Africa
• Protect US, Property, & Citizens– Isolate, Disrupt, Destroy Terrorist Organizations of
Global Reach• Eliminate safe havens & networks• Improve CT capability & cooperation• Expand African capacity to participate in HA & PK ops• Promote African defense capability & reform• Facilitate democratic development• Stop spread of HIV/AIDS• Increase participation w/ European partners in Africa• Prevention of WMD & illegal arms proliferation
African Center For Strategic Studies 2004
Challenges
• Expand African Capacity to Participate in HA & PK Operations– Legal FrameworkLegal Framework – “Neo Peace
Enforcement” & “Robust Peace Keeping.” – Organizational FrameworkOrganizational Framework
• UN Resolution• Regional Authority Request