source: national weather service
DESCRIPTION
U.S. and South America Grain and Oilseed Weather Considerations for 2013 Mike Tannura Meteorologist, Agricultural Economist, and Owner Transportation, Elevator, and Grain Merchants Association January 24, 2013. U.S. Drought Monitor As of Tuesday, January 15. Source: National Weather Service. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
U.S. and South America Grain and Oilseed Weather Considerations for 2013
Mike TannuraMeteorologist, Agricultural Economist, and Owner
Transportation, Elevator, and Grain Merchants AssociationJanuary 24, 2013
Source: National Weather Service
U.S. Drought MonitorAs of Tuesday, January 15
Source: United States Geological Survey
U.S. StreamflowMonday, January 21, 2013
Source: United States Geological Survey
Upper-Mississippi StreamflowMonday, January 21, 2013
Source: United States Geological Survey
Missouri StreamflowMonday, January 21, 2013
Source: National Weather Service
• A tale of two grain belts – one very dry, one wet
PrecipitationPercent of Normal, 180-Day Period Ending Monday
U.S. Winter Wheat Production2007 - 2011 Average
Precipitation (Percent of Normal)Weighted By U.S. Crop Production
180-Day Period Ending Monday
• 68% of HRW wheat in drought, compared to only 10% of SRW wheat
Soil Moisture: Extreme Drought Drought Normal Wet Extreme
WetnessPrecipitation
(Percent of Average): (0% - 50%) (50% - 75%) (75% - 125%) (125% - 200%) (200% +)
CORN 20% 36% 40% 4% 0%SOYBEANS 15% 32% 47% 6% 0%
HRW WHEAT 27% 41% 29% 3% 0%SRW WHEAT 0% 10% 77% 12% 0%
SPRING WHEAT 16% 36% 44% 4% 0%
Neutral Conditions Exist(Neither El Niño nor La Niña)
Neutral Conditions To ContinueThrough Summer
Data source: Climate Prediction Center
U.S. Temperature ProbabilityMarch-April-May
U.S. Precipitation ProbabilityMarch-April-May
10 Driest May-December PeriodsIn Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma
1895 - 2012
Data source: National Climatic Data Center
March-April Precipitation After The 10 Driest May-December PeriodsIn Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma
Data source: National Climatic Data Center
U.S. Winter Wheat Yield1950 - 2012
Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service
U.S. Winter Wheat Yield After The 10 Driest May-December PeriodsIn Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma
Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service
U.S. Corn Production2007 - 2011 Average
U.S. Soybean Production2007 - 2011 Average
Ideal Weather ForHighest U.S. Corn Yield
Ideal Weather ForHighest U.S. Soybean Yield
U.S. Corn Yield1960 - 2012
Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service
U.S. Corn Yield(Departure From Trend)
1960 - 2012
Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service
U.S. Corn Yield and Lagged September-March Precipitation*
1960 - 2012
* Precipitation in Illinois-Indiana-Iowa Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service
U.S. Soybean Yield and Lagged September-March Precipitation*
1960 - 2012
* Precipitation in Illinois-Indiana-Iowa Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service
Summary
• A large-scale and intense drought is in progress
• May-December ranked #1 driest in at least 118 years across the key winter wheat states of Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma
• Moderate historical support for slightly dry weather and low wheat yields during the key March-April period
• The drought neither increases nor decreases the odds for above-trend or below-trend U.S. corn and soybean yields in 2013
• Autumn and winter weather hold no predictive value for future U.S. corn and soybean yields
U.S. Earthquakes
• Do you live in the Midwest or Mississippi Delta?• Have you ever felt an earthquake?
San Francisco Earthquake
• Magnitude 7.9 on April 18, 1906
U.S. Earthquake Risk
• The risk of a major earthquake in the central U.S. “is as high as for places in California” – United States Geological Survey, 2007
Source: United States Geological Survey
Two Seismic Zones InThe Corn Belt and Delta
Halloween EarthquakeNear Cairo, Illinois
• Magnitude 6.8 on October 31, 1895
Source: United States Geological Survey
New Madrid Earthquake SequenceDecember 1811 – February 1812
• 4 earthquakes of Magnitude 7.8 – 8.1 • 8 earthquakes of at least Magnitude 7.0 (not aftershocks)• “…weeks to months…” of disruption would affect agriculture and its
transportation infrastructure if a sequence recurred today – USGS 2009
South AmericaGrains and Oilseeds
Argentina PrecipitationLast 90 Days (Ending Monday)
Argentina PrecipitationLast 30 Days (Ending Monday)
Argentina’s Recent Weather Pattern
Summary
• Argentina is drying and its corn and soybeans need rain to return
• Key corn and soybean areas of Center-West / Southeast Brazil and Bahia have been drier than average throughout most of its growing season
Summary
• A large-scale and intense drought is in progress
• May-December ranked #1 driest in at least 118 years across the key winter wheat states of Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma
• Moderate historical support for slightly dry weather and low wheat yields during the key March-April period
• The drought neither increases nor decreases the odds for above-trend or below-trend U.S. corn and soybean yields in 2013
• Autumn and winter weather hold no predictive value for future U.S. corn and soybean yields
• Argentina is drying and its corn and soybeans need rain to return
• Key corn and soybean areas of Center-West / Southeast Brazil and Bahia have been drier than average throughout most of its growing season
Thank You!Questions?
Mike Tannura Meteorologist, Agricultural Economist, and Owner Email: [email protected] Website: www.tstorm.net Phone: (312) 638-0993 Toll Free Phone: (866) 475-7370
980 North Michigan AvenueSuite 1400Chicago, IL 60611