sourcing of china’s paper fiber supply & recent trade trends kerstin canby
DESCRIPTION
Sourcing of China’s Paper Fiber Supply & Recent Trade Trends Kerstin Canby. Finland. USA. Austria. Sweden. Belgium. Canada. Denmark. Netherlands. Germany. New Zealand. Australia. UK. Japan 1980-2000. Italy. France. Singapore. Rep. of Korea. Spain. Portugal. Ireland. Greece. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Sourcing of China’s Paper Fiber Supply& Recent Trade Trends
Kerstin Canby
Where will the supply come from?
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100
200
300
400
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
GDP per capita, USD 2000 prices
Consumption 2000, kg per capita
Japan 1980-2000
USA
Denmark
Sweden
Ireland
UK
Finland
CanadaNetherlands
Austria
Belgium
Singapore
Germany
France
Australia
Italy
Spain
New Zealand
Rep. of Korea
Malaysia GreecePortugal
ArgentinaMexico
VenezuelaBrazil
Turkey
South Africa
Russia
China
India
China
USA
GDP per capita & paper consumption
UK
China’s Total Papermaking Fiber Resources
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Mega
tons
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Local Pul p I mpor t ed Pul pLocal Wast epaper I mpor t ed Wast epaperI mpor t ed Pul pwood* % Vi r gi n Fi ber
Agricultural residues
Wastepaper
Office paper
Used cardboard & cartons
Mixed (cardboard, news, magazines)
Used magazines, newspapers, etc
Low risk forest / plantations
Potentially threatened forests
Low risk forest / plantations
Unknown forest / plantations
Vegetable pulps (short fiber, low strength, poor quality
Bleached chemical wastepaper
Unbleached draft wastepaper
Other wastepaper (mixed)
Mechanical grade wastepaper
Chemi-mechanical pulp
Bleached kraft pulp(sulfate)
Hardwood pulpwood
Traditional small-scale pulp & paper mills
white paper liner
cardboard
corrugating core
Large scale modern paper industry
Packaging & other paper products for domestic use 53%
Export-grade corrugated shipping boxes 22%
Coated mechanical grades (newsprint) xxxxxxx11%
Export-grade printing and communication paper 14%
Resource Origin Fiber Input Type Processing Final Product
Local pulp & wastepaper
53%
Imported secondary
fiber 33%
Imported pulp
13%
Imported pulpwood
1%
Agricultural residues
Wastepaper
Office paper
Used cardboard & cartons
Mixed (cardboard, news, magazines)
Used magazines, newspapers, etc
Low risk forest / plantations
Potentially threatened forests
Low risk forest / plantations
Unknown forest / plantations
Vegetable pulps (short fiber, low strength, poor quality
Bleached chemical wastepaper
Unbleached draft wastepaper
Other wastepaper (mixed)
Mechanical grade wastepaper
Chemi-mechanical pulp
Bleached kraft pulp(sulfate)
Hardwood pulpwood
Traditional small-scale pulp & paper mills
white paper liner
cardboard
corrugating core
Large scale modern paper industry
Packaging & other paper products for domestic use 53%
Export-grade corrugated shipping boxes 22%
Coated mechanical grades (newsprint) xxxxxxx11%
Export-grade printing and communication paper 14%
Resource Origin Fiber Input Type Processing Final Product
Local pulp & wastepaper
53%
Imported secondary
fiber 33%
Imported pulp
13%
Imported pulpwood
1%
Why is imported chemi- mechanical pulp considered low risk?
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Kilo
tons
Canada New Zealand Sweden IndonesiaEstonia Norway Finland Other
Why is imported bleached kraft pulp considered higher-risk?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Mega
tons
Canada Indonesia Brazil RussiaUnited States Chile Finland Other
Agricultural residues
Wastepaper
Office paper
Used cardboard & cartons
Mixed (cardboard, news, magazines)
Used magazines, newspapers, etc
Low risk forest / plantations
Potentially threatened forests
Low risk forest / plantations
Unknown forest / plantations
Vegetable pulps (short fiber, low strength, poor quality
Bleached chemical wastepaper
Unbleached draft wastepaper
Other wastepaper (mixed)
Mechanical grade wastepaper
Chemi-mechanical pulp
Bleached kraft pulp(sulfate)
Hardwood pulpwood
Traditional small-scale pulp & paper mills
white paper liner
cardboard
corrugating core
Large scale modern paper industry
Packaging & other paper products for domestic use 53%
Export-grade corrugated shipping boxes 22%
Coated mechanical grades (newsprint) xxxxxxx11%
Export-grade printing and communication paper 14%
Resource Origin Fiber Input Type Processing Final Product
Local pulp & wastepaper
53%
Imported secondary
fiber 33%
Imported pulp
13%
Imported pulpwood
1%
Why is imported pulpwood considered higher risk?
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100
200
300
400500
600
700
800
900
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Bone-d
ry m
etr
ic k
iloto
ns
Australia Vietnam Indonesia ChileMalaysia USA Cambodia Other
Agricultural residues
Wastepaper
Office paper
Used cardboard & cartons
Mixed (cardboard, news, magazines)
Used magazines, newspapers, etc
Low risk forest / plantations
Potentially threatened forests
Low risk forest / plantations
Unknown forest / plantations
Vegetable pulps (short fiber, low strength, poor quality
Bleached chemical wastepaper
Unbleached draft wastepaper
Other wastepaper (mixed)
Mechanical grade wastepaper
Chemi-mechanical pulp
Bleached kraft pulp(sulfate)
Hardwood pulpwood
Traditional small-scale pulp & paper mills
white paper liner
cardboard
corrugating core
Large scale modern paper industry
Packaging & other paper products for domestic use 53%
Export-grade corrugated shipping boxes 22%
Coated mechanical grades (newsprint) xxxxxxx11%
Export-grade printing and communication paper 14%
Resource Origin Fiber Input Type Processing Final Product
Local pulp & wastepaper
53%
Imported secondary
fiber 33%
Imported pulp
13%
Imported pulpwood
1%
63.5%
80%
2007 trends continue….
2007 pulp sourcing
Wood chips small but important to some countries...
Recommendations
• Be aware of where pulp, pulpwood and woodchips are coming from & develop tracking systems to verify origin
• Address the “weakest links” in China’s fiber supply system: the uncertified pulp and pulpwood coming from Russia and Indonesia– ensure certified harvested from sustainably
managed forest operations & can be tracked through to the mill
2007 import rise
Taking out p & p, logs dominate
Russian logs dominate….
Russian Exports to China, w/o logs
Small increase in other Russian wood products…
Rise of PNG, Solomons, NZ, Gabon
Indonesian imports down
African imports up (but only 4-5% of total imports)
Where is it going?
Adapted Fuller and Bernard. 2006. China's Rapidly Expanding Wood Products Market: Are they Sustainable? RISI
Where is it going?
Where is it going?
Exports to US by ProductExports by Destination 2007Exports to the United States
Jan-Apr 2008 Plywood and FurniturExports by Destination 2007Furniture & plywood Exports to US 1st Q 2008
Exports by Destination 2007
USA22%
EU18%
Middle East12%
Hong Kong9%
Japan8%
South Korea5%
Taiwan3%
Canada2%
Australia2%
India2%
Malaysia1%
Russia1%
Others15%
Importance of Middle East