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SOUTH AFRICA’S LONG TERM MITIGATION SCENARIOS AND CLIMATE

CHANGE POLICY RESPONSE

Workshop on mitigation potentials, comparability of effort and sectoral

approaches, Bonn, March 2009

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Context

• SA is a developing country with significant development challenges - poverty, unemployment and high vulnerability to climate impacts

• Climate and development• Adaptation and mitigation balance

– Majority of national “Climate” investment required for immediate adaptation priorities related to the poor

– Close price gap on mitigation

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South Africa’s approach to mitigation

• Recognition that SA must play its part in line with prescripts in Convention

• Take action in way appropriate to national circumstances

• Energy intensive economy – coal based • LTMS is a study of country’s mitigation

potential in order to inform policy and action, not a mitigation plan

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LTMS process

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LTMS PROCESS

• LTMS is multi stakeholder, research based scenario process that has produced an assessment of country’s mitigation potential.

• Rigorous, peer reviewed• Inclusive• Broad ownership

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THE LTMS SCENARIO BUILDING TEAM

GovernmentDEAT EnvironmentDME Minerals & EnergyDST Science & TechnologyDoT Transport TreasuryForeign AffairsDTI Trade & IndustryDPE Public Enterprises DWAF Water Affairs & ForestryDept of AgriculturePresidencySAWS Weather Service CEF / SA Nat’l Energy Research InstituteNERSA Energy Regulator W Cape Province (DEADP)City of JohannesburgARC

BusinessSASOLEskomEIUG Energy Intensive Users GroupEngenGrain SA Anglo CoalBHP BillitonChamber of Mines Aluminium – AFSA Kumba ResourcesChemical – CAIA EngenForestry SAAgriSABusiness Unity SASappiEnvirotech (Waste)

Civil society EcoCity/CURESSESSALabour (COSATU)SEA SACANCOSATUSALGAWWF-SAEarthlife AfricaNEDLAC

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LTMSanalysis

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Two Scenarios frame South Africa’s options

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

2033

2036

2039

2042

2045

2048

Mt C

O2-

equi

vale

nt

Upper limit of IPCC lowest scenario

Unilateral contributionto atmosphere

Current Development Trend

THE GAP

Business as Usual breakdown

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SA Strategic Analysis• Energy modelling

– Used bottom-up, partial equilibrium optimisation modelling framework – MARKAL, widely used for energy analysis

– Internationally peer-reviewed• Non-energy modelling (agriculture, waste, land use,

industrial process emissions)– Spreadsheet-based, based on methods

developed for SA Country Study, based on international literature

• Economy-wide impacts– Computable General Equilibrium model,

comparative static and dynamic approaches • Adaptation & Impacts

– Updating of state-of-the-art knowledge

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Technical Options• Used SD PAM’s approach to define

actions• Quantification of emission reductions &

costs• Scenarios and underlying research reports

available at:– http://www.deat.gov.za– http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/LTMS/LTM

S-intro.htm

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0

150

300

R 102

Electric vehicles w ith nuclear, renewables

0

150

300

R 92

Renew ables, extended

0

150

300

R 125

Subsidy for renewables

0

150

300

R 20

Nuclear, extended

0

150

300

-R 34

Industrial efficiency

0

150

300

R 18

Nuclear

0

150

300

R 52

Renewables

0

25

50

R 72

CCS 20 Mt

0

25

50

R 697

Biofuel subsidy

0

25

50

R 1,987

Hybrids

0

25

50

-R 5

Cleaner coal

0

25

50

-R 1,131

Passenger modal shift

0

25

50

R 524

Biofuels

0

25

50

-R 208

SWH subsidy

0

150

300

-R 269

Improved vehicle efficiency

0

25

50

R 607

Electric vehicles in GWC grid

0

25

50

-R 198

Residential efficiency

0

25

50

-R 203

Commercial efficiency

All Medium Wedges

0

150

300 All Small Wedges

02550

05

10

R 50

Enteric fermentation

05

10

-R 19

Manure management

05

10

R 24

Reduced tillage

02550

R 14

Waste management

02550

-R 15

Fire control

05

10

R 39

Afforestation

05

10R 346

Coal mine methane

05

10R 476

Synfuels CCS 2 Mt

05

10R 8

Synfuels methane

05

10R 0

Aluminium

0

25

50

-R 4,404

Limit less eff vehicles

02550

R 105

Synfuels CCS 23 Mt

0

150

300

450

600

R 42

Escalating CO2 tax

0

150

300Renewables w ith learning,

extended

R3

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Four Strategic Options

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Current development trends

Low cost SD-PAMs

Incentivised GHG pricingIncentivised mitigation action

Reach for the Goal

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

2033

2036

2039

2042

2045

2048

2050

IPCC lowest scenario

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Mitigation Costs – these are NOT necessarily additive

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LTMS Conclusions and further work

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PROPOSED POLICY DIRECTIONS

• LTMS considered by SA Cabinet and 6 broad areas for further work identified

– Greenhouse gas emission reductions and limits – Build on, strengthen and/or scale up current initiatives – Implementing the “Business Unusual” Call for Action – Preparing for the future – Prioritising Vulnerability and Adaptation – Integrating and Institutionalising Climate Change work

See Annexure A – LTMS Policy Directions

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GHG emission reductions and limits

• It is proposed that climate change mitigation interventions should be informed by, and monitored and measured against the following “peak, plateau and decline” emission trajectory– Greenhouse gas emissions stop growing (start of

plateau) in 2020-25 at 550 Mt CO2-eq – Greenhouse gas emissions begin declining in

absolute terms (end of plateau) in 2030-35– Long-term greenhouse gas emission level reduces to

levels required by science by 2050-60

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Theme 1: GHG emission reductions and limits (Cont.)

Peak

Decline

Plateau550

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Build on, strengthen and/or scale up current initiatives

• Current energy efficiency and electricity demand-side management initiatives and interventions must be scaled-up and reinforced, including setting national targets in line with LTMS– Example: more efficient boilers.

• Study to be undertaken on impact of a carbon tax on the South African economy and also look at a range of economic and fiscal mechanisms.

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Implementing the “Business Unusual” Call for Action

– Renewable energy sector is key “business unusual” growth sector and set more ambitious national target for renewable energy of 27% by 2030 and 50% of electricity generated by 2050

• Example: concentrated solar power

– Transport sector is a key “business unusual” growth sector and plan developed to reduce its emissions.

– Government to promote the transition to a low-carbon economy and society and all policy and other decisions that may have an impact on South Africa’s GHG emissions.

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Preparing for the future

– Increased support for research and development in the field of carbon-friendly technologies – with the focus on the renewable energy and transport sectors.

– Formal and informal forms of education and outreach are used to encourage the behavioural changes required to support the implementation of the climate change response policy.

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Vulnerability and Adaptation

• Ongoing identification of vulnerabilities to climate change across all sectors and spheres of government.

• Integrate adaptation actions into all government plans as a key performance area

• Develop and implement climate adaptation plans with full stakeholder participation

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Integrating and Institutionalising Climate Change Work

– Clarify roles and Responsibilities across society– Climate change response policies and measures

are mainstreamed within existing alignment, coordination and cooperation structures inside and outside of Government

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Support needed

• Many no regret SD PAM’s – need support in removing barriers– Significant upfront capital investment

requirements International access to technology (IPR, TTB’s)

– Internal capacity and technical assistance

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Way forward• On-going process• High-level political decision on direction

into more formal policy framework by mid 2010

• Policy translated into legislative, regulatory and fiscal package (from now up to 2012)

• National Climate Change Response Policy Development Summit March 2009 (has just occurred)