south africa’s low-emission development strategy 2050 · 2018. 11. 12. · sector emissions...

SOUTH AFRICA’S LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2050

7 November 2018

Content of the Strategy

• Introduction

• The international context

• South Africa’s approach to addressing climate change

• Long-term vision of South African LEDS/vision statement

• Measures to drive low emission development - in all sectors of the economy

Content of the Strategy

• Cross-sectors measures to drive low emission development in South Africa

• Research, development and innovation to support the low emission development

• “Just Transition” to low emission development

• Building a climate/low emission development culture

• Implementation Plan

Introduction• Concentrations of GHGs in the earth’s atmosphere

have been rising steadily since industrial revolution –1760

• Temperatures are likely to increase significantly morethan 2°C above pre-industrialised levels

• South Africa is particularly vulnerable to the impactsof climate change– Under unmitigated GHG emissions scenarios, significant

warming of up to 5 – 8°C is projected over the interior ofthe country by the end of this century

– South African government regards climate change as aconsiderable threat to the country and its socio-economicdevelopment

– If left unchecked, it has the potential to undo orundermine many of the advances made in recent years

Introduction

• In August 1997 - South Africa ratified to UnitedNations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC)– to make its contribution towards the global effort to

tackle the challenge posed by climate change.

• South Africa and 195 others negotiated andadopted the Paris Agreement– Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

– Article 4.19 of the Paris Agreement calls onsignatories to formulate and communicate long-termlow GHG emission development strategies (LEDS) –taking into account the CBDR

What is a LEDS???

• No formal internationally agreed definitionexists

• The LEDS are generally described as forward-looking national economic development plansor strategies that encompass low-emissionand/or climate-resilient economic growth (IEA,2010)

• LEDS can serve multiple purposes but areprimarily intended to help advance nationalclimate change and development policy in amore co-ordinated, coherent and strategicmanner

What is a LEDS???

• South Africa’s LEDS would be the country’sblueprint used to support transition to lowcarbon economic development resulting insustained growth in employment and investment,increased financial flows, reduced greenhousegas (GHG) emissions, and other social,economic, and environmental benefits up to themid-century

• Primary goal of LEDS is to decouple economicgrowth from emissions reduction - Decouplingeconomic growth from emissions reductionrequires transformational changes in all sectors ofthe economy, as well as in planning processes

What other LEDS look like…??

Country Contents

Canada • Not policy prescriptive• Without dictating specific actions across the economy and

allowed all sectors to see themselves in a low carbon future• Clear key messages (electrify end uses, decarbonized electricity

system, etc.) made it easier for it to spread across communities of practice

France • Describes how the objective of reducing domestic GHG emissions of 75% in 2050 compared to 1990 level would be reached

• Carbon budgets up to 2028, and policy recommendations for each sectors of the economy

Germany • Both the basis and a guideline for identifying and fleshing out climate action strategies and measures in the different areas of action sectoral

• Targets which describe the pathway up to 2030 for the proportional reduction of greenhouse gases

What other LEDS look like…??Country Contents

Mexico • Provides the vision, principles, goals, and main lines of action to build a climate resilient society transition towards a low emissions development

• A guiding instrument of the national climate change policy, both in the medium and long-term

United Kingdom

• The Climate Change Act integrates greenhouse gas emissions reduction into the UK’s national long-term planning, providing certainty for public and private sector investment

• Economy-wide, multi-year targets, set well in advance, help to define a clear, yet flexible path towards the long-term climate objective

G20 • Their design must reflect differentiated countries national circumstances, needs and priorities in order for them to become useful tools for integrating a long-term perspective in policy design and to give long term signals to investors

• LEDS should focus more in policies and measures rather than the targets or pathway

Body of work in SA to inform the SA LEDSCommon approach to LEDS development

Work already undertaken in SA

Formulate LEDS Goals • National Climate Change Response Policy• National Development Plan• Country’s international climate change commitments and

aspirations – Copenhagen Accord, NDC and Paris Agreement

Assess Current Situation

• Social and economic development and trends within the country

• Existing relevant programmes and strategies across the different sectors

Evaluate Options (1) Developing a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario; (2) assessing opportunities; (3) evaluating pathways; and (4) evaluate options

• We understand our baselines; LTMS; Mitigation Potential Analysis; many other studies

Prioritise Actions Multi-Criteria Analysis - social, environmental and economic benefits

Implement and Monitor

Strategy Execution

No new policy work will beundertaken or conducted aspart of this work to inform orto develop the SA LEDS

Current State of Affairs

South Africa’s GHG Emissions Trends from 2000 – 2012 (Mt CO2e)

“Paris Agreement”

Nationally Determined Contributions• “No-backsliding” and a “progressive” approach• Took form of the PPD up to 2030

SOUTH AFRICA’S APPROACH

National Climate Change

Response Policy

VISION

Transition to a climate resilient and lower-carbon

economy and society

OBJECTIVE

Make a fair contribution to the

global effort to stabilize GHG

concentrations……..

OBJECTIVE

Manage CC impacts through interventions that build & sustain

SA’s social, economic & environmental

resilience

National Climate Change Response Policy

National Development Plan

• Eliminate poverty and reduce inequality by 2030

Chapter 5 • Achieve the peak, plateau and decline

trajectory for GHG emissions, with the peak around 2025;

• By 2030, an economy-wide carbon price should be entrenched;

• Zero emission building standards by 2030; and• Absolute reductions in the total volume of

waste disposed to landfill each year

Phase 2: SA’s Mitigation System

New regulatory instruments to be

included in future climate change

legislation

DEA Indirect Emissions Mandatory

Reporting Requirements1

Sector Mitigation and Low Carbon

Development Plans (SET departments)

CC Response Implementation Plans (sub-

national government)

Regulatory instruments based on

existing regulations2

National Greenhouse Gas Reporting

Regulations

Pollution Prevention Plan Regulations/

Mitigation Plan Regulations

DEA (M&E)

National Climate Change Response M&E

System

DEA (Inventory)

National GHG Emissions Inventory

SA Mitigation System Regulatory Options

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Overarching

mitigation goal

SA’s national emissions trajectory

Sector Emissions Targets (SETs)

Carbon Budgets

Carbon Tax

Carbon Offsets

Other Policies and

measures

12L, Biofuels Industrial

Strategy, DTI Incentives,

DST Incentives, DAFF

Programmes, etcInstruments

Analytical work

considering SA’s low

carbon transition

Analysis of possible SA

GHG Emissions Pathways

MPA Update

Socioeconomic impact of

various components and

PAMs

Climate finance available

New technology costs and

availability

Climate policy

internationally

Mitigation plans

Ongoing processes and

additional information

Climate Change Bill

• Legislative foundation for the country’s mitigation system

• Future review and determination of the national greenhouse gas emissions trajectory

• Determination of sectoral emissions targets

• Threshold for the purposes of the allocation of carbon budgets to emitting companies

• Plans to phase down or phase out the use of synthetic greenhouse gases

• Provincial or municipal climate change response implementation plan

• Aligned with sectoral priorities and targets

THE SOUTH AFRICAN LEDS VISION

“SA LEDS Vision”Prevent concent rat ions of GHG in t he

at mosphere at a level t hat would result

in dangerous ant hropogenic

int erference w it h t he climat e syst em and urges count r ies t o respond in

accordance w it h t heir common but

different iat ed responsibilit ies and

respect ive capabilit ies

Limit t he global average t emperat ure

increase above pre- indust r ial levels t o well below 2 C, and t o pursue effort s t o

limit t he increase t o 1.5 C and t he

communicat ion by Count r ies, by 20 20 ,

t heir mid-cent ury LEDS t o t he global

communit y

Confirm t he peak, plat eau and decline

GHG emissions t raject ory range

whereby Sout h Afr ica’s emissions by

20 25 and 20 30 w ill be in a range bet ween 398 and 614Mt CO2-eq

Make a fair cont r ibut ion t o

avoiding dangerous

ant hropogenic int erference

w it h t he climat e syst em, wit hin a t imeframe t hat

enables economic, social and

environment al development

t o proceed in a sust ainable

manner

“Putting South Africa on a low-emission growth path in which it p rovides a fair contribution t o limit ing t he increase in global average t emperaturesby working t owards a more inclusive, equal and

sustainable economy and society by 2050”

Eliminat e povert y and reduce

inequalit y by 20 30 ,

recognising t hat Sout h Afr ica

is not only a cont r ibut or t o GHG emissions, but also

part icular ly vulnerable t o t he

effect s of climat e change

specifically when it concerns

t he poor, women and children

Ident ify key job creat ion

dr ivers and prior it y sect ors in

which t o creat e 5 million new

jobs by 20 20 of which 30 0 ,0 0 0 in t he green

economy

Formulat e a sust ainabilit y

vision for t he count ry in which

Sout h Afr ica aspires t o be a

sust ainable, economically prosperous and self-reliant

nat ion st at e t hat safeguards

it s democracy by meet ing t he

fundament al human needs of

it s people

UNF CCC ( 1997) PARIS AGREEMENT (20 15) NDC ( 20 15)

NCCRP (20 11)NDP ( 20 12) NGP ( 20 11) NSSD ( 20 11)

IND

ICA

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MEASURES TO DRIVE LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT -IN ALL SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY

Emissions in the energy sector

Energy Supply Sectors Energy Demand Sector

• Electricity Generated from coal• 3 Coastal Conventional Crude Oil

Refineries: Sapref, Enref, Chevref;• 1 Inland Conventional Crude Oil

Refinery: Natref;• 1 Coastal Synthetic Gas-to-Liquids

(GTL) Refinery: PetroSA (reduced gas supply has necessitated supplementary light crude distillate feedstock), and

• 1 Inland Synthetic Coal-to-Liquids (CTL) Refinery: SASOL-Secunda

Energy-use sectors• Commercial sector • Residential sector • Industrial sector • Transport sector• Agriculture

Measures to address the energy supply related emissions

• Integrated Resource Plan

• Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers Programme

– Mostly solar and wind

• Biofuels Strategy

• Hydrogen Fuel Cell Programme

• Clean Fuels Phase 2

Goals An end result and associated emission reductions

Objectives A measure of change in order to bring about the achievement of the goal above

Targets Explicit targets that would accurately estimate their impact on emission reduction

Measures to address the energy demand related emissions

• Energy Efficiency– National Energy Efficiency Strategy (2005) - 12% improvement by 2015

AND ended up achieving about 23%

– Post-2015 National Energy Efficiency Strategy

Goals An end result and associated emission reductions

Objectives A measure of change in order to bring about the achievement of the goal above

Targets Explicit targets that would accurately estimate their impact on emission reduction

Sector/subsector Goal

Public buildings sector 50% reduction in specific energy consumption (measured as GJ annual energy

consumption per m2 of occupied floor area).

Municipal services 20% reduction in the energy intensity (measured as energy consumption per capita

of population served) of municipal service provision. The specific services included

are street lighting, traffic lights, water supply and waste water treatment.

30% reduction in the fossil fuel intensity of municipality vehicle fleets (measured as

total fossil fuel consumption by municipal vehicles per capita of population served).

Residential sector 33% reduction in the average specific energy consumption of new household

appliances purchased in South Africa

20% reduction in the average specific energy consumption of the residential

building stock

Commercial sector 37% reduction in the specific energy consumption (measured as GJ annual energy

consumption per m2 of lettable/habitable floor area)

Industry sector 16% reduction in the weighted mean specific energy consumption for the

manufacturing industry

40 PJ cumulative total annual energy saving from specific energy saving

interventions undertaken by in the mining subsector

Agriculture sector A saving of approximately 3% of total sector-wide electricity consumption

1 PJ verified electricity saving from officially supported projects.

Transport sector 20% reduction in the average vehicle energy intensity (measured in MJ/km) of the

South African road vehicle fleet

Utilities (electricity) sector Reduce overall average distribution losses to below 8% nationally

Annual 10 PJ electricity generation from grid-connected cogeneration and waste-

heat recovery plant

Post-2015 Energy Efficiency


• Solar Water Heaters (SWH)

GoalsObjectives Targets

• SWH programme envisages the installation of 1.25 million SWHs by 2019.

• The National Development Plan introduces a second milestone year of 2030 with the goal of an additional 5 million SWHs being installed by this point


• National Building Regulations and BuildingsStandards Act


• The standards prescribe energy efficiencyrequirements of new buildings stipulate themaximum energy demand and the maximumannual energy consumption for various kindsof buildings in various climate zones acrossthe country


• Appliance Labelling


• The South African Energy Efficiency Label would beattached to all appliances that meet the minimumenergy performance standards (MEPS) so thatconsumers have a choice when buying appliances

• Air conditioners, washing machines, electric ovens,refrigerators, electric geysers, audio and videoequipment, dishwashers and electric lamps

• Labels would be attached to appliances that havebeen designed to meet minimum energy efficiencystandards


• Promotion of Clean Mobility– The National Transport Master Plan (NATMAP) 2050 (DoT, 2016)

– Public Transport Strategy

– Green Transport Strategy


Public Transport Strategy

• Action plan for accelerated modal shits and forthe development of integrated rapid publictransport networks

• Bus rapid transport (BRT) system inJohannesburg has led to it being adapted andimplemented in other major South Africancities, including Cape Town, Nelson MandelaBay, Rustenburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane


• Promotion of Clean Mobility– Road-to-Rail Strategy


• The progressive shift of freighttransport from rail to road over pastdecades years, has resulted in road-based freight transport accounting foralmost 76 percent of the total

Building Resilience – Energy & Transport

Energy Transport

• Risk of damage to electricity generation technologies and energy supply infrastructure

• Electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure -prevalence and intensity of lightning storms and veld fires

• Efficiency of transmission lines also decreases when ambient temperatures are too high

• Energy infrastructure in coastal areas faces significant risks in terms of potential saltwater damage from rising sea-levels

• Water-Energy Nexus

• Constructing low-carbon climate resilient road transport infrastructure

• climate resilience into urban and rural integrated transit planning and systems

• Creating standards and guidelines for climate-resilient materials for construction, maintenance and upgrading of road networks in the country

Emissions in the Industrial sector – 2000 to 2012

• Largest share of South Africa’s total energydemand and consumption

• High energy-intensity of its industries, particularlythe metal producing industry

• While emissions in the minerals and metalssubsectors rose substantially, those in chemicalsand manufacturing and construction subsectorsdeclined– Decline in the South Africa’s manufacturing output

and share in the economy over the years

Measures to address industry sector

• National Industrial Policy Framework (NIPF)– short-term: Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP)

• Various incentives and financial assistance tocompanies for green project development– Capital Projects Feasibility Programme, the Critical

Infrastructure Programme and the ManufacturingCompetitiveness Enhancement Programme

• National Energy Efficiency Strategy

• Integrated Demand Management (IDM)Programme

Building Resilience in the industry sector

• Feedstock supply-side uncertainties, increasedtrade exposure and changes in consumerspending

• Climate-related risks in the minerals andmanufacturing and construction industries arelinked to water availability

Measures to address AFOLU sector

• Climate Change Sector Plan for the SouthAfrican Agricultural and Forestry Sectors

– Proposes the goal of afforesting 100,000 hectaresof land in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal

• Conservation Agriculture Policy of 2017

• Agroforestry could lead to the sequestrationof atmospheric carbon in soils and biomass

Building Resilience in the AFOLU sector

• Water flow and quality management or forageproduction

• Restoring rangelands and sub-tropical thicket

• Clearance of bush encroachment and woodyalien invasive species

Measures to address emissions in the Waste Sector

• Waste management hierarchy of waste avoidance and reduction, re-use, recycling, recovery and disposal– Reducing the quantity of recyclable waste sent to landfill,

through the implementation of separation at source programmes in metropolitan municipalities;

– Encouraging the establishment of material recovery facilities (MRFs) for separation after the waste has been collected; and

– Promoting development of waste-to-energy (WtE) solutions over and above current projects and initiatives

– WtE projects have a double effect of reducing atmospheric GHGs by preventing methane emissions generated in landfills or from wastewater treatment and also providing energy by generating electricity and heat, thus displacing demand for coal-based electricity from the national utility or other fuel inputs

Building Climate Resilience in the Waste Sector

• Higher rates of waste accumulation - result of flooding causing disruptions in the provision of waste services

• Increased health risks - disruptions in waste removal and supply transportation networks

• Degradation in the integrity and lifespan of designated waste management infrastructure

• Higher temperatures that lead to faster decomposition of the organic fractions in landfills and of wastewater sludge, resulting in increased releases of methane emissions

CROSS-CUTTING MEASURES TO DRIVE LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT

Cross-cutting measures to drive low-emission development

Carbon Dioxide Vehicle Emission Tax, 2010• Emissions tax is aimed at vehicles that produce more

than 120g/km and are taxed at a rate of R75 + VAT for every g/km in excess of the 120g/km threshold

Carbon Tax• Tax is aimed at businesses and companies that emit a

high level of carbon, polluting the atmosphere

• The tax rate is set at R120 per tonne of CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent) produced

RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION TO DRIVE LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT

Research, Development and Innovation to drive low-emission development

• DST’s Ten-Year Innovation Plan for South Africa

• The state of climate change science and technology in South Africa (ASSAF, 2017)

• Long-term innovation focus lies on clean-coal technologies, renewable energy and the promise of the hydrogen economy and energy storage

• Biofuels Demonstration Programme

• Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

JUST TRANSITION TO LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT

Just Transition to low-emission development

• Climate actions should be undertaken in a manner thatsafeguards and increases jobs, reduces inequality andpositively contributes to the wellbeing of commonSouth Africans

• Millions of people are employed in energy-intensiveindustries, which will need to undergo significantrestructuring as a result of less carbon-intensive practices

• New employment opportunities will require new skillsand areas of expertise

• National Employment Vulnerability Assessment (NEVA)and Sector Jobs Resilience Plans (SJRPs) will be the keypolicy instruments to manage the transition of thoseemployed in carbon-intensive sectors into the low-carbon economy

BUILDING A CLIMATE/LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT CULTURE

Building a climate/low emission development culture

• Develop and implement education, training and public awareness programmes

• Adopt a principle of informed participation

• Empower all South Africans to make informed choices that contribute to an economy and society that is resilient to climate change

WHAT DO WE DO WITH THOSE PROGRAMMES ALREADY FEATURING IN THE NDC?..

PROGRAMMES OUTLINED IN THE NDC…Actions Timeframes

Short-term• (2021 to 2030)

Medium-term(2031 to 2040)

Long-term(2041 to 2050)

Expand REI4P in next ten years

Decarbonised electricity by 2050

Increase the take up of the electric and hybrid vehicles (20% by 2030)

Reduce GHG emissions from transport sector by 5% in 2050

Implementation of the CCS

Next Steps

• Programmes/policies and measures that can be featured in the LEDS?

• Awareness and education

• Further General Consultation before the Finalisation

• Complete the Strategy and start with the Cabinet process after April 2019

• Submission to the UNFCCC in 2020

• Iteration – least every five years or at an earlier date - “the NPC Low Carbon Transition”, IEP, IRP, IPAP

Thank YouMac Makwarela

Director: CC Mitigation [email protected]

012 399 9163083 656 0428

mailto:[email protected]

south africa’s low-emission development strategy 2050 · 2018. 11. 12. · sector emissions...

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