South American Monsoon inCurrent and Future Climate

Ana Carolina Nóbile Tomaziello - BRAZILCarla Natalia Gulizia - ARGENTINA

Douglas Lindemann - BRAZILFlávio Justino - BRAZIL

Objectives

• Evaluate ENSO as represented by CMIP5 GCMs (INM - Russia, MPI - Germany, MRI - Japan, NCC - Norway) for both present and future climate.

• Evaluate the South American Monsoon response to ENSO variability.

(http://www.clivar.org/sites/default/files/imported/organization/vamos/Publications/vamos_pg3.htm)

Precipitation rate Surface temperature

(47%)

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis

4 years peak

CMIP5 models

EOF1

INM (12%)

(13%)MRI

MPI (23%)

NCC (26%)

Present (1970-2000) Variance OBS: 47%

NCCMPI

INM MRI

Present (1970-2000) – Precipitation rate

MPI

INMMRI

Present (1970-2000) – Surface temperature

NCC

Into the future...

INM

MPI

MRI

NCC

(20%)

(26%)

(32%)

(23%)

(12%)

(13%)

(23%)

(26%)

EOF1Future (2070-2100)

NCCMPI

INM MRI

Present (1970-2000) – Precipitation rate

INM MRI

Future (2070-2100) – Precipitation rate

NCCMPI

MPI

INMMRI

Present (1970-2000) – Surface temperature

NCC

NCC

MRI

Future (2070-2100) – Surface temperature

INM

MPI

Conclusions

• MPI and NCC (MRI and INM) could (not) reproduce the South America ENSO response as compared to reanalysis data;

• MPI and NCC (MRI and INM) were (not) able to reproduce the ENSO characteristic timescale;

• In exception of NCC all models show stronger ENSO in future climate as compared to present day modeled climate;

• Generally, South America monsoon response to future ENSO would be associated with drier and warmer climate conditions.

Obrigado!

¡Gracias!