South and East Tablelands - What's happening with supply

South and East Tablelands Region – What’s Happening with Housing Supply and does it match Demand?

The majority of households in the South and East Tablelands are couple only or single person households, yet the housing stock is dominated by detached homes with three or four bedrooms. This housing was built at a time when families were the predominant household type. Couple only or single person households are the household types which are forecast to be the fastest growing in the region to 2036. There is already a significant mismatch between household type and bedroom mix. This mismatch will worsen unless proactive measures are taken to increase the supply of studio, one and two bedroom homes, giving smaller households the opportunity to seek more suitable homes.

Dwelling Type

· At the 2016 Census there were 122,626 dwellings in the South and East Tablelands Region, of which 100,005 (or 81.6%) were occupied.

· At the 2016 Census, the vast majority of occupied dwellings in the Region were separate houses, comprising 84% of all occupied dwellings compared with 57% on average across Sydney and 82% in the Rest of NSW. The proportion of separate houses ranged between 94% of occupied dwellings in Yass Valley and 73% in Queanbeyan-Palerang.

· The previous graph shows the proportion of households in each of the key dwelling types in the South and East Tablelands LGAs and Rest of NSW at the 2016 Census – note that there is no information on the breakdown of dwelling type for unoccupied dwellings.

· A further 8% of occupied dwellings in South and East Tablelands are attached houses (compared with 14% in Sydney and 9% in the Rest of NSW) and 5% of occupied dwellings are flats (compared with 29% in Sydney and 6% in the Rest of NSW).

· Queanbeyan-Palerang has the greatest diversity of dwelling types, with 14% attached housing (semi, row, terrace, townhouse) and 12% flats/units. Bega Valley is the only other LGA in the Region with a higher proportion of attached housing (10%) than the Rest of NSW average of 9%. Eurobodalla had 6% flats/units and was the only other LGA in the region with an equivalent or higher proportion of flats than the Rest of NSW average of 6%.

· These figures demonstrate a lack of diversity in dwelling type across the region.

· Generally the Region has a much higher proportion of unoccupied private dwellings (18.5%) than the Rest of NSW (13.2%), with LGAs in the Region ranging from 31.6% unoccupied in Eurobodalla to 10.2% in Yass Valley. At the 2016 Census there were 22,629 unoccupied dwellings in the Region.

· According to 2016 Census data, there were 799 households living in caravan, cabin/ houseboat accommodation in the South and East Tablelands. This is down from 879 at the 2011 Census.

· The graph below shows the change from 2011 to 2016 in the amount of caravan and cabin accommodation in each of the South and East Tablelands LGAs.

· Caravan or residential parks are one of the few remaining affordable housing options for lower income earners. The loss of this accommodation reduces options for lower income households and reduces flexibility to deal with seasonal workers.

· The graph indicates that the decline in the number of caravan/ cabin houseboat accommodation is not declining uniformly throughout the region. In fact Queanbeyan-Palerang experienced a significant decline in numbers, with Goulburn Mulwaree, Yass Valley and Hilltops also experiencing a loss, while all the other LGAs in the Region had an increase.

· Eurobodalla (284) had the highest numbers of caravan, cabin/ houseboat dwellings in the region at 2016, followed by Bega Valley (184).

Bedroom Mix

· The graph below shows the proportion of studio, one, two, three and four or more bedroom occupied dwellings in the South and East Tablelands at the 2016 Census.

· The graph clearly demonstrates the dominance of three and four bedroom homes, together comprising 86.1% of all dwellings in the Region, compared to 74.4% in Sydney and 85.5% in the Rest of NSW. There is not much variation across the region, with the proportion of three and four bedroom homes combined ranging from 90.5% in Yass Valley to 82.5% in Bega Valley. This is in line with the trend in NSW generally and the Rest of NSW in particular.

· Separately, four or more bedrooms comprise 44.7% of homes in the South and East Tablelands and three bedroom dwellings form 41.4%.

· By contrast, studios make up just 0.2% of dwellings; one bedroom homes comprise 1.4% and two bedrooms 10.9% of residential stock on average across the region. Bega Valley, Hilltops and Snowy Monaro Regional have the highest proportion of studio homes (0.3%), Snowy Monaro Regional has the highest proportion of one bedroom properties (2.0%) and Bega Valley has the highest proportion of two bedroom dwellings (13.6%).

· Given that lone person and couple only households comprised 54.8% of all households in the South and East Tablelands, the fact that studio and one bedroom homes combined comprise just 1.6% of the housing stock shows a significant mismatch between household type and dwelling size and an extraordinary lack of housing choice for smaller households.

· DPIE have forecast an increase in lone person and couple only households as well as older age groups in the region and this is likely to increase the demand for smaller, more manageable and affordable homes.

· Ideally there should be an increase in the number of studio, one and two bedroom dwellings to suit these household types and offer some housing choice. Two bedroom dwellings in particular offer the most flexibility, given they are also suitable for small families.

Tenure

· At the 2016 Census, 37.0% of South and East Tablelands region households owned their home outright (compared to 27.7% in Sydney and 35.5% in the Rest of NSW); a further 30.1% owned their home with a mortgage in the region (compared to 31.5% in Sydney and 28.6% in the Rest of NSW).

· Private renters comprise 20.2% of households (below the average of 22.3% in the Rest of NSW and compared to 28.0% in Sydney); while 2.4% of households rent through the state housing authority (4.0% in Sydney, 3.5% in the Rest of NSW) and 0.6% rent through a housing cooperative, church group or not for profit (0.6% in Sydney and 0.7% in the Rest of NSW).

· Aboriginal households show a different tenure profile, with 16.3% owning their home outright, 29.5% owning with a mortgage and 48.9% renting, including through a state housing authority and housing co-operative, community or church group.

· The graph below shows the proportion of households in each tenure type in each of the South and East Tablelands LGAs, the Region and the Rest of NSW at the 2016 Census. Note SHA refers to state housing authority.

· Between 2011 and 2016, there was a 5.2% increase in the number of households who owned their home outright (compared to a 2.8% increase in the Rest of NSW) and a 4.0% increase in the number of households who owned their home with a mortgage in the South and East Tablelands (compared to 2.0% in the Rest of NSW.)

· In addition, over the same period there was a 1.6% increase in the number of households in private rental in the Region, compared with a 2.4% increase on average in the Rest of NSW.

· The longer term trend in Sydney and NSW has been a decline in the proportion of households owning their home outright and increases in the proportion of households who are purchasing and who rent. South and East Tablelands differs from this general trend with strong growth in households owning their home outright.

· Across the South and East Tablelands LGA’s:

· Eurobodalla has the highest proportion of households owning their home outright (44.6%), followed by Upper Lachlan (44.2%) with Yass Valley having the lowest proportion at 33.6%.

· Yass Valley has the highest proportion of households with a mortgage (41.9%), followed by Queanbeyan-Palerang (38.1%) with Eurobodalla having the lowest proportion (22.1%).

· Queanbeyan-Palerang has the highest proportion of households in the private rental market with 23.7%, followed by Snowy Monaro Regional with 23.2% and Upper Lachlan has the lowest proportion with 15.0%.

· The general trend is increasing numbers of households relying on the private rental market as a long term tenure rather than a transitional one between leaving home and buying a home, as housing costs have increased much faster than wages.

· It is therefore important to encourage tenure diversity and a range of price points to meet local needs. Given the lower provision of private rental generally and the impact of short term rentals on at least some of the LGAs in this region (Snowy Monaro Regional, Bega Valley and Eurobodalla particularly), it is important to encourage provision of more long term rental accommodation for lower income households.

· Queanbeyan-Palerang is strongly impacted by the housing market in Canberra and provides relatively more affordable accommodation for the Canberra workforce. Provision of more targeted affordable rental housing would also assist residents of this LGA struggling to compete for private rental accommodation.

Public Housing

· The table below shows the number of public housing properties in the South and East Tablelands Region LGAs as at June 2017. Please note that Census data on public housing is not particularly accurate, as public housing tenure is under reported in the Census. The figures below do not include community housing properties.

AREA

Public housing stock

Bega Valley

305

Eurobodolla

357

Goulburn Mulwaree

644

Hilltops Council

7

Queanbeyan - Palerang

635

Snowy Monaro Regional

2

Upper Lachlan

0

Wingecarribee

6

Yass Valley

3

South and East Tablelands

1,959

Rest of NSW

36,431

· The table below shows the expected waiting times for general housing approved social housing applicants (not for priority housing applicants) by bedroom category in the South and East Tablelands Region as at 30 June 2019.

Expected Waiting Time

ALLOCATION ZONE

1 bed

2 bed

3 bed

4 bed

GW15 WINGECARRIBEE

5-10 years

2-5 years

5-10 years

Up to 2 years

S001 BEGA VALLEY

5-10 years

5-10 years

5-10 years

Up to 2 years

S002 BOMBALA

2-5 years

2-5 years

Up to 2 years

Up to 2 years

S003 COOMA

2-5 years

2-5 years

10+ years

Up to 2 years

S004 CROOKWELL

5-10 years

Up to 2 years

2-5 years

S005 GOULBURN

5-10 years

5-10 years

2-5 years

5-10 years

S006 GUNNING

S008 MULWAREE

S009 QUEANBEYAN

5-10 years

10+ years

5-10 years

5-10 years

S013 SNOWY RIVER

2-5 years

10+ years

S014 TALLAGANDA

10+ years

Up to 2 years

Up to 2 years

10+ years

S017 YASS

5-10 years

Up to 2 years

2-5 years

Up to 2 years

S018 BATEMANS BAY

5-10 years

5-10 years

5-10 years

5-10 years

S019 BERMAGUI

5-10 years

10+ years

5-10 years

S021 DELEGATE

S022 EDEN

5-10 years

5-10 years

Up to 2 years

5-10 years

S025 JINDABYNE

2-5 years

10+ years

S026 MERIMBULA

5-10 years

5-10 years

10+ years

Up to 2 years

S027 MORUYA

5-10 years

5-10 years

5-10 years

5-10 years

S028 NAROOMA

5-10 years

5-10 years

2-5 years

Up to 2 years

S020 BUNGENDORE

S141 YOUNG

5-10 years

2-5 years

2-5 years

2-5 years

S142 HARDEN/MURRUMBURRAH

Up to 2 years

10+ years

S143 BOOROWA

2-5 years

Up to 2 years

Up to 2 years

· Information on Expected Waiting Times for Public Housing is available on the FACS website by region at:

https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/housing/help/applying-assistance/expected-waiting-times

The Gap

· The South and East Tablelands region has experienced an increase in low income (5.9%) and low income rental households (9.3%) from the 2011 Census.

· Yet there has been a significant decline in the number of affordable properties in the private rental market (70% fewer affordable rental bonds lodged between 2006 and 2017).

· This has led to a marked increase in the number of low income rental households in housing stress across the region (10.3%), particularly in Queanbeyan-Palerang and also Goulburn Mulwaree.

· Over the last decade, rental price growth in the Region has been strong and the vacancy rate exhibits strong seasonal variation with periods of undersupply. Between 2006 and 2017 the Region experienced a decline of 2,654 in the number of new bonds lodged which were affordable to lower income households. The largest numerical losses occurred in Queanbeyan-Palerang, Bega Valley, Goulburn Mulwaree, Wingecarribee and Eurobodalla.

· The evidence indicates a growing gap between the increasing number of low income rental households and the declining number of properties affordable for rental by low income households in South and East Tablelands, as demonstrated in the graph below. The graph compares the number of renters on low incomes with the number of new bonds lodged that were affordable to rent for low income households at different periods between 2006 and 2017.

· The significant increase in the number of low and very low income households in rental stress in the region between 2011 and 2016 implies strong demand for affordable housing.

· Older age cohorts are forecast to increase the fastest to 2036 in the Region and DPIE also predict that lone person and couple only households will be the fastest growing household types in South and East Tablelands.

· There is already a significant mismatch between household type and bedroom number across all the Region. With an increase in smaller households, this disparity will only worsen unless proactive measures are taken to increase the supply of studio, one and two bedroom homes. This will enable some measure of choice to smaller households and give older residents some options to downsize.

· Given the current overwhelming supply of three and four bedrooms, strong incentives/requirements would need to be put in place to ensure a better balance and more diversity to meet housing need.

· The graph below compares the number of smaller household types - lone person and couple only – with the amount of studio and one bedroom accommodation available in South and East Tablelands. It is clear that if smaller households wished to live in smaller housing, they have very little opportunity to do so. While 54.8% of households in the Region are lone person or couple, only 1.6% of dwelling stock is studio or one bedroom.

· This mismatch can impact on affordability, with smaller households required to consume more housing than they need because of lack of choice.

· There is also a lack of tenure diversity in the Region, with a lower proportion of private rental accommodation than the average for the Rest of NSW at a time when more households are relying on the private rental market as a long term tenure.

· In addition, there is evidence that short term rentals are impacting on lower income households and the supply of longer term private rental housing in parts of the Region.

· Secondary dwellings suit a range of groups including small households, young people, frail aged and people with disability needing support from family. They may be readily encouraged on larger lots with reasonable access to centres providing a range of services and facilities.

· New generation boarding houses would also help fulfil some of this demand – particularly as they cannot be subdivided and must provide private rental accommodation. Where they are developed by community housing providers they will provide affordable rental for lower income earners. Note that the NSW Community Housing Industry Association has an Affordable Housing Tool Kit to help deal with community resistance to affordable housing available on their website. They also have a couple of excellent vimeos showcasing new generation boarding house developments and their tenants.

· This type of accommodation is suitable for single people and also couples, for key workers and students. It also has potential to assist in providing accommodation/meeting additional housing demand for seasonal workers.

· The next graph compares larger household types – couple family with children, one parent family and group households – with the amount of three and four or more bedroom accommodation available. It is clear that there is a significant oversupply of larger dwellings, by comparison with the household types which might need large homes.

· This mismatch will be exacerbated by the forecast increase in smaller households and by the continued addition of bedrooms to existing dwellings. Additions of bedrooms to existing stock has a significant impact on bedroom mix across LGAs and the region.

· The high proportion of lone person and couple only households further suggests it is important to continue to encourage provision of one and two bedroom stock, to maintain a balance to meet local need, particularly where there are higher proportions of seniors and frail aged. This will give older residents opportunity to downsize into more manageable and appropriate homes. The recent AHURI research (February 2020) on downsizing of households aged over 55 could provide some useful insights.

Who needs affordable housing

· While this region has a higher proportion of higher income households than the average for the Rest of NSW, there are significant numbers of lower income households in rental and purchase stress in this Region.

· Wage growth has been low and while interest rates have also been low, there is a large and growing gap between what households can affordably pay for housing and the rent and purchase price of housing.

· The housing markets in this Region are impacted by neighbouring Sydney and Canberra as well as tourists and sea and tree changers. Wingecarribee is regarded as more affordable than Sydney and Queanbeyan-Palerang is regarded as more affordable than Canberra. With workers from those cities seeking more affordable accommodation in neighbouring LGAs, that can impact on existing lower income residents in those LGAs – for example by increased rents, potentially leading to more lower income households in rental stress or being displaced.

· A wide range of people need affordable housing. Single income earners who fall into the low income category include aged care and disability workers, retail sales assistants, production workers, receptionists and early career child care workers. People working in accommodation and food services comprise around 8% of the workforce nationally (8.3% in the South and East Tablelands) and are amongst the lowest paid workers. Similarly retail trade employs 9.8% of workers in the region.

· The Australian Institute of Family Studies undertook a significant Regional and Rural Families Survey and made a submission to the Productivity Commission’s Inquiry into Government Drought Support. The submission[footnoteRef:1] found: [1: Social and economic impacts of drought on farm families and rural communities. Submission to the Productivity Commission’s Inquiry into Government Drought Support. Prepared by Ben Edwards, Matthew Gray and Boyd Hunter, Australian Institute of Family Studies. ]

· “As would be expected, the largest impacts of drought appeared to be economic, with large effects on household income, the experience of financial hardship and deterioration in household financial position” and

· “Importantly, there was also evidence that drought had a negative impact upon farm workers and on people who were employed in rural areas but not in agriculture. The effects for those who were employed but not in agriculture were largely financial, with a negative and statistically significant impact upon household income and a higher likelihood of saying that the financial position of their household had become worse over the last 3 years.” (p5)

· Single income households in particular are less able to compete in the housing market.

· Increasing numbers of older single women are homeless or at risk of homelessness due to the lack of available affordable rental housing.

· Aboriginal residents are strongly over represented in the homeless population in the region.

· Partnering or collaborating with community housing providers is one effective way to meet some of the local need for appropriate affordable housing. Community housing providers are not for profit owners, managers and developers of affordable rental housing for lower income households and residents with specific housing needs. They work with partners, investors and government to provide housing and deliver support for tenants. For more information about community housing providers, see the NSW Community Housing Industry Association website.

Additional Data

More detailed housing data and tables used in this Snapshot are available from the Local Government Housing Kit Database on the Housing NSW website at:

http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/Centre+For+Affordable+Housing/NSW+Local+Government+Housing+Kit/Local+Government+Housing+Kit+Database/

More information on Expected Waiting Times for Public Housing is available on the Housing NSW website by region at:

http://www.housingpathways.nsw.gov.au/How+to+Apply/Expected+Waiting+Times/

Additional data on social housing delivery is available on the FACS website at:

https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/resources/statistics/social-housing-delivery

More information about community housing providers is available on the NSW CHIA (Community Housing Industry Association) website, including their affordable housing tool kit. The Tool Kit is based on extensive research about reasons for community resistance to affordable housing, and effective ways of building support for affordable housing:

https://nswfha.wpengine.com/lb/toolkits/ahtk/toolkit/

The NSW CHIA 2018 community housing state of the industry report is also available:

http://communityhousing.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/StateoftheIndustry-web.pdf

www.facs.nsw.gov.au