South Asia after 1945March 31, 2015

Review• Is Japan a democracy today?

• What role did General Douglas MacArthur play in Japan’s democratization?

• How is Japanese nationalism today different from what it was before 1945?

• What is Article 9 of Japan’s Constitution?

• Is Japan still a rich country?

Taiwan: a democratic alternative

• Taiwan was under Japanese rule from 1895 to 1945, during which time it began modernizing, and people of Chinese descent on Taiwan began seeing themselves as different from other Chinese.

• Incorporated into Chiang Kai-shek’s Republic of China in 1945. Was never a part of the People’s Republic of China

• There was resistance in Taiwan to the KMT (Feb.28, 1947) (pp. 538)

• Was under a KMT dictatorship until the 1990s.

• As the KMT became more Taiwanese, it became more democratic. Held democratic election for president in 1996 (after free parliamentary elections in 1992), and won. It has also become much richer, in terms of per capita income, than China. It is even richer than Japan now (in per capita terms).

• 2000--first peaceful transfer of power, to the Democratic Progressive Party. 2nd peaceful transfer of power in 2008

• Taiwan is a de facto independent country. (Own army, government, passports, etc.)

• In 2013, 57.5% of the people in Taiwan called themselves “Taiwanese.” Only 3.6% called themselves Chinese. The rest mostly said Taiwanese and Chinese.

Explaining Taiwan• How can we explain the democratization of Taiwan?

• First of all, land reform early in the KMT years undermined the landlord-state coalition that supports Fascism.

• The KMT promoted economic growth in a free market (in order to gain legitimacy), creating alternative centres of power.

• The Taiwanese were the majority of the population, and the KMT needed their support to continue to govern. (The old distinction between mainlanders and Taiwanese has faded as the post-1945 immigrant generation has died off.)

Tibet• Was an autonomous country, though it never received modern

recognition as an independent nation-state.

• Tibet was invaded by PRC forces in 1950. China, however, promised to allow religious freedom in Tibet and promised that it would not alter the existing political system.

• In 1959,when rumours spread that the Chinese might kidnap the Dalai Lama, Tibetans rose up against the Chinese. They were defeated and the Dalai Lama fled to India

• Recognizing the Tibet can never defeat China, Tibetans now ask for autonomy within China, similar to the autonomy granted to Hong Kong.

Hong Kong• A special administrative region with China since the

UK gave Hong Kong back to China in 1997. However, it has been guaranteed a different political system for at least 50 years. That had led to demands in Hong Kong for democracy, as seen in the fall, 2014 demonstrations, called the “Yellow Umbrella” movement.

• Today 62.4% of people in Hong Kong prefer to call themselves Hongkongers rather than just Chinese.

South Asia• India a democratic country with an economy that has been

growing rapidly since the early 1990s, and has also seen a rise in Hindu nationalism.

• Sri Lanka richest, best-educated country in South Asia but had to endure violence between Sinhalese and Tamils for over 30 years (rival ethnic nationalisms with religious overtones).

• Pakistan off-and-on again democracy with little economic growth. Product of Muslim nationalism

• Bangladesh like Pakistan, off-and-on again democracy. Even poorer than Pakistan. Product of Bengali nationalism

• Nepal A monarchy until recently. Now a fragile democracy.

Partition • In August, 1947, British India was split into Hindu India and

Muslim Pakistan. It was a violent separation, with a million or so killed. Hindus fled to India while Muslims fled to Pakistan. (This is an example of communal violence.) Why was India split in two? (p. 200)

• Kashmir was (and still is) caught in the middle, claimed by India because its ruler in 1947 was Hindu but also claimed by Pakistan because the majority of the population is Muslim. (p. 201)

• East Pakistan broke off from West Pakistan in 1971 (they had been separated by 1,500 kilometers of Indian territory). It was not a peaceful separation but led to the establishment of the new Muslim country of Bangladesh. (p. 209)

Politics in modern South Asia• India has managed to preserve a democratic form of government

(except for 1975-77, when Indira Gandhi ruled as a dictator. She called an election in 1977, and stepped down when she lost.) (p. 203) India has had peaceful transfers of power.

• Both Pakistan and Bangladesh, on the other hand, have endured an alternation of civilian and military governments. Democracy is still quite fragile in both countries. (p. 210-212)

• Can we explain that difference? Here is a hint:

• The business leaders of British India stayed mostly in India. Politics in Pakistan and Bangladesh has been dominated by the representatives of the traditional elite, usually great landowning families.

Important Early leaders of India • Gandhi--wanted India to remain a village society. He was

assassinated on Jan. 30, 1948 by a radical Hindu nationalist.

• Nehru --he was a democratic socialist who wanted the state to control the economy--under his rule (1947-1964), economic growth barely kept up with population growth.

• Indira Gandhi, Nehru’s daughter, was elected prime minister as head of the Congress Party. Served in that post 1966-1977, and again 1980-84. In 1975 she threw out the constitution and ruled as a mild dictator. Then she allowed a free election in 1977, lost, and stepped down. She was elected again in 1980

• She was assassinated in 1984 by her Sikh bodyguards.

How has democracy survived in India?

• India has a per capita GDP of around $4,000/yr. (in 2013) and has only a 75% literacy rate (Until a decade or so ago, over half of all adult women were illiterate. Now it is 65%).

• Yet it is a functioning democracy, quite unlike Pakistan and Bangladesh which have both endured many military coups.

• Barrington Moore claims that Gandhi’s campaign against the British, as well as the British treatment of local merchants, led to a nationalistic alliance of peasants with the commercial classes, preventing the fascist coalition from forming. Other give credit to experience with self-government under British rule.

• Also what local industry there was before 1947 was mostly in what now is India. What is now Pakistan and Bangladesh was an agrarian economy under the control of rich landlords.

End of Congress Domination• The Congress Party was for a long time the only party with a

national reach. Indira Gandhi was replaced by her son Rajiv Gandi, but he was assassinated by a Tamil Tiger in 1991. A few years later his Italian-born widow, Sonia Gandhi, became the head of the party, though she never assumed the post of prime minister.

• Congress has been challenged by the BJP, a Hindu-nationalist party whose most extreme elements say that Muslims (over 160 million in India) are not really Indians.

• In national elections in 2014, the BJP, led by Narendra Modi, the former governor of Gujarat, won 282 out of 543 in the lower house, though it got only around 31% of the total vote. (Congress got less than 20%).

Economic Growth in India

• Nehru was a socialist who advocated centralized (government) economic planning and import substitutionForeign investment was discouraged. Red tape (bureaucratic barriers) made even internal investment difficult. The economy grew, but only a little faster than the population did. (p. 206)

• 1991 -An economic crisis shocked India into changing economic strategies. India started courting foreign investment, reducing red tape for businesses, and encouraging export-oriented businesses. The economy began to grow. Since 1992, the GDP as grown about 6% a year through 2002 and picking up speed in more recent years, leading to a annual growth of per-capita income of 4% up to 2002, and then a doubling of per capita income between 2002 and 2009. In 2014 it grew 7.4%, slightly faster than China did that year.

India’s Problems

• Though India has by far the largest economy in South Asia, and has the 2nd highest per capita GDP, it is second to last (ahead of Pakistan only) in such important social criteria as life expectancy, infant mortality, health care, and even the percentage of the population that has access to a toilet. There is also substantial malnutrition in India as well as uneven access to education.

Women leaders• India --Indira Gandhi

• Sri Lanka --widow of first prime minister became prime minister herself (the first in the world) and then later her daughter became the president.

• Pakistan: Benazir Bhutto was prime minister twice, and almost a third time

• Bangladesh: the widow of one ruler and the daughter of another alternated as prime minster between 1991 and today.

Pakistan• founder Jinnah dies in 1948

• Constitutional government until 1958, when a general seized control

• 1971 After Bangladesh breaks away, Bhutto is elected president.

• 1973 the military overthrows Bhutto (they execute him in 1978).

• 1988 General in charge dies in a mysterious plane crash.

• 1988 Benazir Bhutto wins election, is thrown out by a judge, wins again in 1993, but loses election in 1997.

• 1999 General Musharraf seizes power

• 2007 Benazir Bhutto assassinated while campaigning.

• Benazir Bhutto’s husband chosen President and becomes first elected chief of state to serve a full term (though after 2010 he handed over much of his power to the Prime Minister, from the same party.) In 2013, power was handed over peacefully to a different party, headed by an earlier president.

Bangladesh• 1970 An East Pakistan-based party wins a majority of seats in the Parliament. West Pakistan

rejects that result, resulting in civil war that split Pakistan in two.

• 1971 East Pakistan becomes Bangladesh under Sheikh Mujib

• 1975 Sheikh Mujib is assassinated and General Zia seizes power.

• 1978 Zia allows free elections.

• 1981 Zia is assassinated. Another army government takes over

• 1990 popular protests lead to democratic elections.

• 1991 and 2001 Zia’s widow elected prime minister

• 1996 Sheikh Mujib’s daughter is elected Prime Minister

• 2007 Both women are jailed for corruption. The army assumes control but Mujib’s daughter wins Dec, 2008, election. She is still in power, having one one more election since then.

Sri Lanka• 1956 Sinhalese is made the national language, offending the minorityTamils.

• 1959 Prime Minister Bandaranaike is assassinated by a monk. His wife wins the next election.

• 1975 Name is changed from Ceylon to Sri Lanka

• 1983 Tamil rebellion begins.

• 1994 daughter of Bandaranaike is elected president under a new constitution, appoints her mother prime minister.

• 2001 opposition wins control of parliament

• 2005 opposition wins the presidency. Crushes Tamils in 2009

• 2015 A Sinhalese who called for reconciliation with the Tamils is elected president.

Nepal• 31 million people, mostly Hindus

• Was a monarchy until 2008

• In 2002 a crown prince murdered 9 members of the royal family, including the king and queen.

• There was a strong Maoist insurgency. In 2008 the Maoists won a majority of seats in the parliamentary election. In 2013 they lost and handed over power peacefully.

Roots of violence• per capita GDP: (in US dollars)

• Sri Lanka India Pakistan Bangladesh Nepal

• $6,500 $4,00 $3,100 $2,000 $1,500

• literacy

• 91% 73% 55% 58% 58%

• Could British colonial rule be responsible for the fact that democracy has been stronger in South Asia than in China or in most of Southeast Asia? (Did the French or the Dutch teach democracy? What about the Japanese?)