south carolina government finance officers presentation to 2010 fall conference october 18, 2010
TRANSCRIPT
South Carolina Government Finance Officers
Presentation to
2010 Fall Conference
October 18, 2010
BABs & RZEDBs Market Dynamics and TrendsProgram Update
Program Summary, Proposed Legislation and Outlook
Offer municipal issuers access to taxable buyer base and reduced costs, particularly at long maturities
Over $129bn issued to date, comprising about 27% of total municipal issuance during the same period
The current legislation expires at the end of 2010
The extension of the programs is still unclear
In June, Congress failed to pass a Jobs Bill which would have extended the BAB programs through December 31, 2012 at reduced subsidy of 32% and 30% in 2011 and 2012, respectively
The prospects of the ARRA programs are currently unclear
Issuers have to decide to issue BABs and RZEDBs before the expiration and grapple with unknowns including a likely lower rebate level if an extension does pass
2010 issuance is expected to remain strong around $100 billion, with likely surge of volume near the year end when the current legislation expires
Steady monthly volume
Increased knowledge and acceptance of municipal credits by traditional taxable investors
Continued demand for long duration BABs & RZEDBs from pensions and insurance firms to offset liabilities
Overview of BABs Issuance to Date (1)
Call Features – 30% with Par Calls
Size – Majority under $250 Million
Volume – Over $129Bn Since Inception
Maturities – 63% over 22 Years
BABs & RZEDBs Market Dynamics and Trends
____________________(1) Source: Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters. Data as of 9/13/2010.
Bil
lio
ns
Nu
mb
er o
f D
eals
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000
Apr 09
May 09Ju
n 09Ju
l 09
Aug 09Sep
09Oct
09
Nov 09
Dec 09Ja
n 10
Feb 10Mar
10Apr
10
May 10Ju
n 10Ju
l 10
Aug 10
Sep-10
*
$Mil
lio
ns
0.0%
5.0%10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%30.0%
35.0%
BABs Fixed rate Tax-exempt % BABs
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
Apr-0
9
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug-0
9
Sep-0
9
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-
10
Feb-1
0
Mar
-10
Apr-1
0
May
-10
Jun-
10
Jul-1
0
Aug-1
0
Sep-1
0*
Bil
lio
ns Make-Whole Call Par Call
23.2
7.8
19.3
25.5
21.7
15.7
19.1
1493273134
223
1303
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
<50 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000
1000+
Overview of Issuance to Date (1)
Ratings – 68% with AA or HigherSectors – Broadly Diversified
BABs & RZEDBs Market Dynamics and Trends
____________________(1) Source: Thomson Reuters. Data as of 8/6/2010.(2) Based on a large, highly rated, GO BAB issue.
Typical Investor Distribution (2) ~ 50% Are Traditional Municipal Bond Buyers:
Mutual Fund (i.e. Bond Fund)
Investment Advisory (with tax-exempt market research capacity)
Property Casualty Insurance Company
Retail
~ 50% Are Non-Traditional Municipal Bond Buyers
Life Insurance Company
Investment Advisory
Foreign Banks
Pensions
Hedge Funds
Corporation
* - Hedge Funds, Governmental, Pensions
OthersHigher Education
Toll & Turnpike
Power
Water & Sewer
Leases Tax Revenues
GO State
GO Local
24%
21%
11%8%
8%
7%
7%
6%8%
RetailCorporate
Other*
Bank
Mutual Fund
Insurance
Investment Advisory
27%
27%
28%
7%
7%3%
BBB
A
AA
AAA
12%
56%
30%
2%
BABs Market Dynamics and TrendsTop BABs Holders (1)
Account NameAmount of BAB Owned ($000)
1 Pacific Investment Management Co LLC (PIMCO) $4,159,7662 Metropolitan Life Insurance Co (Investments) (MetLife) $1,908,2053 MFC Global Investment Management (US) LLC $1,798,4844 Delaware Investments $1,492,3305 AIG Asset Management (US) LLC $1,424,3506 Loews Corp $1,126,6407 USAA Investment Management Co $1,059,4908 Allstate Investment Management Co $1,019,3309 Prudential Investment Management-Fixed Income (PIM Fixed Income) $993,672
10 GE Asset Management Inc $935,98411 United American Insurance Co $804,29012 Country Trust Bank $801,72513 Wellington Management Co LLP $794,11314 BlackRock Financial Management Inc (Fixed-Income) $686,25115 Nationwide Insurance Co (Office of Investments) $679,83516 Franklin Templeton Investments $528,97217 Guggenheim Investment Management LLC $522,29718 Aviva Investors North America Inc $498,80819 Nuveen Asset Management Inc $489,40120 EquiTrust Investment Management Services Inc $460,63821 Penn Mutual Life Insurance Co $456,82022 General Re-New England Asset Management Inc $437,98123 American Family Life Assurance Co (AFLAC) $424,31524 40/86 Advisors Inc $423,25025 Liberty Mutual Insurance Co $413,73526 Advantus Capital Management Inc $413,22827 Protective Life Corp $411,55528 Columbia Management Investment Advisers LLC $397,98229 AllianceBernstein LP $390,20830 Stancorp Investment Advisers Inc $356,986____________________
(1) Source: eMAXX as of 6/30/10
Muni-Style 10-Year Par Call vs. Corporate Style Make-Whole Call
10-Year Par Call Make-Whole Call
Description Issuer’s right to redeem bonds at par in 10 yrs
Issuer’s right to redeem bonds at the greater of
par value or make-whole value discounted at a
predetermined fixed spread to treasuries
% of Total Par Amount ~ 34%; Have achieved greater but limited
acceptance in the taxable market ~ 66%; Preferred by taxable investors
Average Cost to Issuer 40-50 bps, or 22-32.5 bps net of subsidy 0 bp
Reasons to Use
- Refunding flexibility and potential savings
- Option cost is subsidized at 35%
- Required by law or debt policy
- No impact on pricing
- Access market with a large deal size
- A view of rising interest rates
Alternatives
- Use a longer par call (i.e. 20-yr) with a
longer maturity bond (i.e. 40-yr)
- Reduce option cost by about 25 bps
- Capture refunding opportunities when rolling
down the curve from 40-yr to 20-yr
BABs & RZEDBs Market Dynamics and Trends
75.00%
95.00%
115.00%
135.00%
155.00%
175.00%
195.00%
215.00%
9/22/00 9/22/02 9/22/04 9/22/06 9/22/08 9/22/10
MMD/UST 10Y Ratio MMD/UST 30Y Ratio
Municipal Spreads and Ratios
____________________(1) Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
BAB Spreads Are Grinding Tighter in the Past Weeks (1)
Muni Credit Spreads to AAA (1) Ratios Are Above Averages
Market Update
050
100150200250300350400
Apr
-09
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug
-09
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Dec
-09
Jan-
10
Feb
-10
Mar
-10
Apr
-10
May
-10
Jun-
10
Jul-1
0
Aug
-10
Sep
-10
Max Min Average
10Y Ratio 30Y Ratio
Current 91.2% 98.9%Average 87.7% 97.6%
0
2040
60
80
100120
Dec-09 Feb-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Sep-10
AA
& A
spre
ad (b
p)
100120140160180200220240
BBB spre
ad (b
p)
Municipals Revenue AA Municipals Revenue A
Municipals General Obligation A Municipals Revenue BBB
Syndicate Dynamics – Typical Timeline and Process
Tax-Exempt vs. Taxable Syndicate
- 1 Week
Mailing of POS Rating Reports
Investor Presentations Posted
-2 to 3 Days
Mailing of POS Rating Reports
-1 Day 0
Retail Order Period
+1 Day-1 to 2 Days
Tax-Exempt Syndicate
Taxable Syndicate (including BABs & RZEDBs)
Preliminary & Final Pricing
Formal Award
Formal Guidance Launch Pricing Set Coupons/Formal
Award
Whisper Talk Preliminary Guidance
Investor Presentations Posted
Addressing Dual Marketing Plans
Investor Conference Call (If Needed)
Patriots Energy Group, Gas System Revenue Bonds, Series 2010 A&B
Yield Model for Selecting Uninsured Tax-Exempt (A2)Versus Uninsured RZEDBs (A2) Maturities
Market as of July 8, 2010
Tax-Exempt Rates Recovery Zone Economic Development Bond RatesUninsured Non-Call 10-year Par Call 10-YR Call
Maturity AAA PEG Total Total Total Treasury 10-Year Par Call TE YTM vs. If 10-Year(Year) MMD Spreads Yield YTC YTM Maturity Yield Spread Yield Yield * 55% RZEDBs Par Call:
12 0.47% 0.95% 1.42% 1.42% 1.42% 2-year 0.62% 2.65% 3.27% 1.80% 0.38% TE3 0.78% 1.00% 1.78% 1.78% 1.78% 3-year 0.99% 2.75% 3.74% 2.06% 0.28% TE4 1.08% 1.05% 2.13% 2.13% 2.13% 5-year 1.80% 2.70% 4.50% 2.47% 0.34% TE5 1.45% 1.10% 2.55% 2.55% 2.55% 5-year 1.80% 2.90% 4.70% 2.58% 0.03% TE6 1.82% 1.15% 2.97% 2.97% 2.97% 7-year 2.47% 2.75% 5.22% 2.87% -0.10% RZB7 2.09% 1.15% 3.24% 3.24% 3.24% 7-year 2.47% 2.95% 5.42% 2.98% -0.26% RZB8 2.29% 1.15% 3.44% 3.44% 3.44% 10-year 3.02% 2.65% 5.67% 3.12% -0.32% RZB9 2.49% 1.15% 3.64% 3.64% 3.64% 0.43% TE10 2.67% 1.20% 3.87% 3.87% 3.97% 0.10% TE11 2.82% 1.20% 4.02% 4.02% 4.09% -0.02% RZB12 2.95% 1.20% 4.15% 4.15% 4.26% -0.19% RZB13 3.07% 1.20% 4.27% 4.27% 4.40% -0.33% RZB14 3.19% 1.20% 4.39% 4.39% 4.53% -0.46% RZB15 3.30% 1.20% 4.50% 4.50% 4.63% -0.56% RZB16 3.40% -0.87% RZB17 3.49% -0.87% RZB18 3.56% -0.87% RZB19 3.63% -0.87% RZB20 3.70% 1.20% 4.90% 4.90% 4.94% 30-year 4.00% 3.40% 7.40% 4.07% -0.87% RZB21 3.77% -1.02% RZB22 3.83% -1.02% RZB23 3.88% -1.02% RZB24 3.91% -1.02% RZB25 3.94% 1.20% 5.14% 5.14% 5.14% -1.02% RZB26 3.95% -1.07% RZB27 3.96% -1.07% RZB28 3.97% -1.07% RZB29 3.98% -1.07% RZB30 3.99% 1.20% 5.19% 5.19% 5.19% 30-year 4.00% 3.50% 7.50% 4.13% -1.07% RZB
* Decision analysis based on TE YTM, however YTC is also a relevant consideration.Notes: "TE" = Tax-Exempt; "NC" = Non-Callable; "YTC" = Yield to Call; "YTM" = Yield to Maturity; "RZB" = Recovery Zone Economic Development Bond