southeast asia: history, politics, and culture
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Regional SecurityEducation Program
Naval Postgraduate School
In support of Pacific Partnership 2008
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What is RSEP?Direct response to CNOs request for new initiatives toprepare operating forces for regional securitymissions and threats
Outcome of USS Cole investigation
NPS initiative with COMTHIRDFLT supportThen ADM Thomas Fargo directed NPS to fast-track RSEP
Face-to-face graduate education with regional andsubject-matter experts
RSEP = Lectures, Q & A, and debate
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RSEP Missions and Objectives
Enhance situational awareness through graduateeducation on regional threats with historical
perspectives and views on current issuesStrategic focus to prepare CVBGs, ARGs, SAGs andMarines for regional security and cultural challenges
Education Objectives include diplomacy, coalitionbuilding and achieving U.S. National Security Objectives
Preparation for Forward Engagement
and Security Cooperation
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Team MembersDr. Michael Malley
National Security Affairs Department, Naval PostgraduateSchoolTeach Southeast Asian politics, history, and internationalrelations
Dr. Sophal EarNational Security Affairs Department, Naval PostgraduateSchoolTeach Southeast Asian politics and political economy,stabilization and reconstruction
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Southeast Asia: History,Politics, and Culture
Dr. Michael Malley and Dr. Sophal EarRegional Security Education ProgramDepartment of National Security AffairsNaval Postgraduate SchoolPacific Partnership, May 2008
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OutlineGeography
People and CulturesHistory
Politics
Foreign Policy
Food/Rice Crisis
Terrorism
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Religious DiversityMainly Buddhist mainland
Burma, Thailand, Cambodia,
Laos, VietnamMainly Muslim islands
Brunei
Indonesia: small Christian andHindu minorities
Malaysia: small Hindu andlarge Christian minorities
Mainly CatholicPhilippines and East Timor
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Historical BackgroundMainland
Modern countries emerged
from old kingdomsColonialism reshaped thesecountriesThailand (Siam) was not
colonizedIslands
Modern countries are colonialcreations
Colonialism createdSingapore, Malaysia,Indonesia, and thePhilippines
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Impact of ColonialismEconomicTransformed economies, and integrated them into
the world economyColonies produced rice, rubber, sugar, tobacco,coffee, and tin for world markets
SocialLarge numbers of immigrants came from China andIndia to find work
PoliticalExposure to foreign ideas + resistance to colonialism
growth of nationalism
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From Empire to Revolution: TheImpact of World War II
Japan invaded and occupied most of Southeast Asia
Europeans and US defeated in less than one yearLesson to Southeast Asian nationalists: Asians candefeat whites/Europeans
Opportunity for Southeast Asians: many could fillpositions left by European defeatAfter the War: Europeans too weak to overcomenationalist movements
Independence achieved in 1940s and 1950sVietnam fought until 1970s for unification
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Post-independence StrugglesMost countries faced internal conflict and
insurgencyMalaysia: The Emergency vs. communism
Burma: ethnic rebellions
Indonesia: Islamic militants, regional rebels,powerful communist movement
Philippines: rural revolt, strong communistmovement
Vietnam: divided country
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Division in Southeast Asiaduring the 1960s and 1970s
Anticommunist governments gained control of many
countriesSingapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines
Formed Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
Pursued economic growth through tradeResult: Peace and rapid economic growth, but little democracy
Mainland: communist and socialist ideals led them to
fight US and turn away from global economyDecades of war left these countries much poorer
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From Growth to Crisis: 1980s-1990s
Following economic reform in 1980s, many countries
enjoyed rapid growth and rising living standardsPhilippine exception: domestic political turmoil led toeconomic crisisVietnam began to replace communism with capitalism
Late 1990s, major economic crisis hit most countriesin Southeast Asia
Falling demand for Southeast Asian goods
Speculative bubbleToday, Southeast Asian economies have recovered, butstruggle with competition from China
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Contemporary PoliticsFew democracies
Only Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand choosetheir governments through (mostly) free and fairelections
Malaysia, Singapore, Cambodia are pseudo-democracies
Brunei: monarchy
Burma: military juntaVietnam, Laos: communist regimes
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US Partners in Southeast Asia
Thailand and the PhilippinesUS allies since early 1950smajor non-NATO allies since 2003Strong partners in GWOT
Singapore:
strategic partner and strong supporter of GWOT, major tradeand investment partner
Malaysia and IndonesiaPublic often opposes US policies, especially wars in Iraq andAfghanistanGovts support key policies, e.g., GWOT and regional security
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Chinas Charm Offensive Early 1990s: China took an aggressive approachtoward Southeast Asia
Seized territory in South China Sea
Southeast Asian countries strengthened defense ties with US,e.g., Changi naval base in Singapore
Since late 1990s, China has played nicelyNo more territorial expansion in South China Sea
Economic cooperation with SE Asia
Support for ASEAN and multilateral diplomacyMost SE Asian countries aim to avoid moving too close toeither China or the US
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US Interests in Southeast Asia
Main goal: promote regional peace and stability
Contemporary ChallengesRice Crisis: threats to prosperity and stability
Terrorism: threat to security and stability
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In case you havent heardAside from Cyclone
Nargis hittingMyanmar (Burma),and the 7.9earthquake in China
1) There is acatastrophic foodcrisis, the likes ofwhich has not been
seen since 1973/42) In addition, there is
routine hunger.
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Whats happening to prices?
Currently US$1000
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Drivers of Growth in Prices
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BLUF: Its Supply and Demand
Increase in meat consumption (Per capita
consumption has more than doubled in last 50years and it takes 8, 5, and 3 lbs grain toproduce 1 lb of beef, pork, and chicken.)
Formerly self-sufficient countries now importingfood.Weather (Australia, Bangladesh, and Myanmar)
Speculation (local hoarding as well asspeculation in the commodities super cycle.)
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Philippines self-sufficiency in food
production, including rice, drops steadily
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
$ B
Balance of food trade in the Philippines, 1980-2006
Source: WTO online database
1980 (1.41)
1995 (-0.14)
2006 (-0.49)
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Rice plantation areas have shrunk in the
Philippines
236,615
682,873
359,246
-86,606-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1960-1971 1971-1980 1980-1991 1991-2002
Area planted/harvested across decades (in hectares)
Source: 2002 Census of Agriculture, NSO
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and could possibly grow more
in the near future
16
18
19
21
14
15
16
1718
19
20
21
22
'07 '08 '09 '10
22
24
25
27
20
21
22
2324
25
26
27
28
'07 '08 '09 '10
Estimated % share of imported rice on domestic consumption, 2007-2010
Projection 1 Projection 2
Projection by Prof. Ted Mendoza of UPLB
Consumption: 118.67 kg/person Consumption: 128 kg/person
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Worldwide GovernmentalResponses
Emergency imports
Banning/freezing exports ofrice/foodFood subsidies & tariffsPresident Bush Orders $200Million in Food AidMalaysia proposed barteringpalm oil for rice
Japan sits on 2.25 mil.Japan will re-export 220,000tons to Philippines Long-term pressure faced by govts
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Terrorism and Political Violence in Southeast Asia
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In case you havent heard
Good News:
Major terrorist network in Southeast Asia has beenseriously disruptedOn Sunday, the State Dept lifted 7-year old travelwarning for Indonesia
Bad NewsTerrorism and insurgency remain significant
Southern Philippines remains a major trouble spotSeveral groups involved, many near Cotabato
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Dangers in the Philippines
Several major insurgent
groupsMuslim groups in theSouth
Largest are separatistmovements
Smaller terrorist groups
Cotabato
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Insurgency and Terrorism
MNLF & MILF40-year old insurgency, 1000s ofmembers each
Seek autonomy, not independenc
Peace talks breaking down
Some MILF commanders shelterterrorists
ASG (Abu Sayyaf Group)Linked to al-Qaeda
Hundreds of members
Main focus of US CT operations in RP
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Southern Mindanao
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Recent DevelopmentsEmergence of new, small, criminal groups
Increase in bombings in Mindanao
Breakdown of peace talks with MILFMalaysian peacekeepers begin to depart this monthNew links forged between elements of ASG and MNLF
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New Peoples Army
Communist; 7,000+ members
Active in 69 out of 81 provinces ctive near Cotabato and in Samar
40 years, 40,000 dead
On US list of terrorist groupsIncreasing number of attacks in 2008, aim to raisemoney
Mainly attack govt forces and officials, and foreigncompanies
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Implications for You
Your Own Security
Threats are real, but not imminentBut situation is uncertain due to recent changes
Patient careIn recent years, widespread fighting has displacedhundreds of thousands of peopleTravel may be dangerous because bus companies
are common target of extortionist bombsThey live with the threat of violence
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Questions?