southeast asia smart meter market overview: market trends
TRANSCRIPT
Southeast Asia Smart Meter Market Overview:
Market Trends, Challenges, Future plans and
Opportunities
Metering Billing/CRM Asia 2012
May 8, 2012
Hoonho (Andy) Bae
Senior Analyst
Pike Research
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research 2
• Smart Grid Overview
• Smart Meters and AMI
• Smart Meter Drivers and Challenges
• Smart Meter Pilot Projects and Plans
• Market Forecasts
• Global Market Trends in Smart Meters
• Conclusion
Agenda
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research 3
• Reduce utility operating costs
• Improve grid reliability
• Increase energy efficiency Reduce overall demand
Reduce end-to-end system losses
Shift peak demand (C&I, residential) • “Soft” consumer-driven “demand response”
• Verifiable, centrally controlled demand response
• Integrate renewable generation Intermittent, bulk generation
Renewable Distributed Energy Generation (RDEG)
• Support electric transportation transition Commercial and personal vehicles (PEV)
Smart Grid Goals
More Grid
Intelligence
Less Grid
Intelligence
Sustainable, Secure, Environmentally Safe Energy
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research 4
Power Network
General Drivers for Smart Grid
Communications / Automation Network
IT/OT Infrastructure
Transmission Distribution Substation Metering Consumers Suppliers
(Source: Pike Research)
Energy Management
Billing
Reliability
Opex Reduction
Safety
Efficiency Customer Service
Demand Response
Market Operation
Forecasting
Collections Lower Energy Costs
Own Generation
PEVs Profitability
Regulatory Goals Renewables
Energy Independence Security Carbon Reduction
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research 5
• Smart meter definition
Integrated intelligence (computing and memory) with energy readings at least once per hour
Integrated, two-way communications for remote reading and control of the meter
• Advanced metering infrastructure
Private radio (RF) technologies (mesh or tower-based)
Power Line Carrier
Cellular (2G, 3G, 4G)
• Types of smart meters
Advanced – with a Home Area Network (HAN) interface and remote disconnect
Basic – without a HAN, may have remote disconnect
Simple – limited communications
Smart Meters
Copyright © 2011 Pike Research
Technology Choices
WAN
Meters
Concentrator WAN
Meters
Base Station
RF Mesh RF Star (Public Cell or Private)
WAN
Concentrator
Meters
Power Line Carrier
(Source: Pike Research)
WAN
Meters
Wireline, Broadband, Fiber
WAN Enterprise Distribution
VSAT
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research 7
• Utility perspectives Reduced meter reading labor costs
Increased meter reading frequency and accuracy
Remote connect/disconnect and load limiting
Outage detection
Power quality monitoring, outage prevention, and load planning
Theft prevention
• Consumer perspectives Promote reduced electricity energy use and carbon emission
Promote behavioral change and empower individuals through knowledge and information
Save money for both consumers and suppliers via more accurate bills
• Southeast Asia regional perspectives Fast growing economy and urbanization – social and industrial infrastructure
National electrification programs
Enhanced electricity quality through AMI and smart grid environment
Smart Meter Drivers in Southeast
Asia
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research 8
• Market participants struggling with more issues than those solved with smart meters
• Challenges include technology, capital, consumer participation, and standards issues: Cost and ownership issues
Huge capital investment
Lack of legal framework and regulations
Lack of reliable and cost effective communication networks / backbone capacity
Lack of IT infrastructure and integration
Customer participation and awareness
Cyber security and standards
• Still facing low electrification levels – smart metering not a high priority?
Challenges and Barriers in
Southeast Asia
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research 9
• Indonesia
Diverse projects by PT PLN
• AMR: Focusing on C&I customers via GSM since 2007
• AMI: Selected customers with 10,000 units of smart meters in
trial projects via PLC
• Prepaid Meters: Over 500,000 units since 2009
• Malaysia
“25-Year Electricity Technology Roadmap (TRM)” by TNB since
2009
Smart meter trials with over 5,000 participating customers in
different types of usage environments
• Bayan Lepas in Penang (industrial customers)
• Bukit Bintang in the capital city Kuala Lumpur (commercial customers)
• Medini in Johor, southern Malaysia (general customers)
Smart Meter Pilot Projects and
Plans
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research 10
• The Philippines
Meralco and NGCP are actively deploying smart meters,
Demand Response and T&D trials
• Smart substations in Antipolo by NGCP
• Total Investment in smart grid by Meralco $936 million by 2022
• Deploy smart meters with IHD in 2013
• Smart meters with two-way communications and total HEMS solutions via
mobile connectivity
• Thailand
PEA leads national Smart Grid programs including smart meters,
renewable energies, EV, and T&D upgrades
• $13 billion in overall investment till 2027
• AMI trial projects with 10,000 units in Pattaya from 2012
Smart Meter Pilot Projects and
Plans
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research 11
• Driven by National Electrification Programs and
Economic Growth
• Total 226 million units by 2020
Total Electricity Meters Installed
Base Forecast
-
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Vietnam
Thailand
Singapore
Philippines
Myanmar
Malaysia
Laos
Indonesia
Cambodia
Brunei
(Source: Pike Research)
Electric Meter Installed Base, Southeast Asia, by Country: 2009-2020
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research 12
• Singapore (74.8%), Malaysia (59.5%), Thailand (37.9%),
Indonesia (19.7%) by 2020
• Total penetration in ASEAN region will reach 24.5% by 2020
Smart Meter Penetration Rate
Forecast
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Brunei
Cambodia
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Total
(Source: Pike Research)
Smart Meter Installed Base (of all Meters) by Country, Southeast Asia: 2009-2020
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research 13
Other Regions Also Growing
• Latin America, led by Brazil, is increasing adoption
• Smart meter plans in Japan and Korea (KEPCO) also forming
• Prepay metering activity strong in Middle East and Africa
Smart Meter Installed Base (of all Meters) by Region, World Markets: 2010-2020
(Source: Pike Research)
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research 14
Conclusion
• Still a long journey ahead for Smart Meters, along with Smart Grid Ecosystems
• Smart Meters are an essential part reaching advanced electricity services
• Strong opportunities exist in South East Asia
• Smart Energy Ecosystem opportunities are emerging
Smart Homes
Smart Buildings
Smart Cities
Clean Transportation
Renewable generation
Generation > 30%
renewable sources
Secure,
self-healing,
self-optimizing grid
Self-managing,
demand responsive
smart buildings
Clean transportation,
leveraging clean
generation
Energy-efficient,
self-managing
homes driven by
consumer choice
(Source: Pike Research)
15 Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
HEADQUARTERS
1320 Pearl Street, Suite 300
Boulder, CO 80302
+1.303.997.7609
WORLDWIDE OFFICES
United States: Boulder, Colorado
Washington, DC
Europe: London, United Kingdom
Asia Pacific: Seoul, South Korea
General information: [email protected]
Sales inquiries: [email protected]
Media inquiries: [email protected]
Contact Us