Southeast AsianSoutheast AsianMinisters of EducationMinisters of Education

OrganizationOrganizationLeading through Learning

The Purpose of SEAMEO

SEAMEO is a chartered international and intergovernmental organization established in 1965 to promote cooperation in education, science and culture in Southeast Asia.

• Establishes network and partnerships

• Provides intellectual forums for policy makers and experts

• Promotes sustainable human resource development

• Develops and nurtures the capacities of teachers and school managers in Southeast Asia through 20 SEAMEO specialist institutions

Member CountriesMember CountriesIndonesia (1965)

Lao PDR (1965)

Malaysia (1965)

Philippines (1965)

Singapore (1965)

Thailand (1965)

Cambodia (1971)

Brunei Darussalam (1984)

Vietnam (1992)

Myanmar (1998)

Timor-Leste (2006)

Associate MembersAssociate Members

Australia (1973)

France (1973)

New Zealand (1974)

Canada (1988)

Germany (1990)

Netherlands (1993)

Spain (2007)

United Kingdom (2013)

Affiliate MembersAffiliate Members

International Council for Open and Distance Education (1999)

University of Tsukuba (2009)

British Council (2010)

The leading organization for enhancing regional understanding and cooperation in education, science and culture for a better quality of life in Southeast Asia

Vision

To enhance regional understanding, cooperation and unity of purpose among Member Countries for a better quality of life through

– the establishment of networks and partnerships, – the provision of fora among policy makers and experts, and – the promotion of sustainable human resource development

Mission

20 SEAMEO Regional Centresand a Regional Network on Tropical Medicine and Public Health

11 Regional Centres

for Education

2 Regional Centres

for Culture

7 Regional Centres

for Science

1. Innovative Education 2. and Technology 3. Science and 4. Mathematics Education5. Language Education6. Vocational and 7. Technical Education 8. Higher Education9. Special Education 10. Open Learning/ Distance 11. Education 12. Education Management13. Teacher Capacity Building

1. Cultural Development 2. Archaeology 3. Fine Arts 4. History and Traditions

1. Agriculture 2. Tropical Biology3. Natural Resource 4. Management 5. Tropical Medicine 6. Public Health 7. Food and Nutrition

Areas of Expertise Areas of Expertise Areas of Expertise

Futures, Foresight and the Development

of Education in Southeast Asia

Dr Witaya Jeradechakul Director, SEAMEO Secretariat

Bangkok, Thailand

witaya@seameo.org secretariat@seameo.org

Imagine the Future

https://alumni.tsukuba.ac.jp/

The Futures

1. Not just the Future but Futures

2. Futurists can not predict the future. No one can. A prediction is intended to be true and accurate statement. But we all can forecast futures. A forecast is intended to be logical and useful statement about the futures.

3. Futures studies help institutions and individuals envision, design, and move towards preferred futures rather than passively accepting whatever “will be”.

4. But to be effective the process of forecasting and envisioning must be done continuously and not just a one-shot activity

The Futures and Time Horizon

1. But when is the present, when does the future begin?

2. Most people are only interested in “now”.

3. Some planners and policy-makers may be interested in the next five, ten, or maybe 15 years.

4. Futurists begin to take interest from between 20 to 50—maybe 100—years from now.

5. Beyond 100 years is speculation, imagination and fiction.

The Futures and Time Horizon

administration

planning

futures research

TIMELINE AND DEGREE OF FLUX

DEGREE OF PARTICIPATION

MAGNITUDE OF INTENDED ACTIONS James Dator, University of Hawaii

Plausible versus Preferred Futures

What might happen: trends forecasts, scenarios

We need to understand this

Plausible Futures

Values, mission, vision,Goals, strategies, actions

Dreams and imagination We need to create this

Preferred Futures

Impact and Uncertainty

DriversDrivershigh impact, low uncertaintyhigh impact, low uncertainty

Potential DriversPotential Drivershigh impact, high uncertaintyhigh impact, high uncertainty

Background TrendsBackground Trendslow uncertainty, low impactlow uncertainty, low impact

InconsequentialInconsequentialhigh uncertainty, low impacthigh uncertainty, low impact

high uncertaintylow uncertainty

high impact

low impact

What is Foresight

• Systematic attempts to look into the future (of science, society, economy – and their interactions) in order to promote social, environmental and economic benefit

• Foresight study is a process of anticipating and managing changes

Key Elements of Foresight Study

1. Structured Anticipation

2. Interactive and Participative

3. Methods

4. New networks

5. Strategic Visioning

6. For present day decision and action

7. Social Benefits and Disbenefits

Why Foresight is Important

1. Globalization

2. Constraints on government spending

3. Change in management and industrial production

4. Changes in the structure of and demand for knowledge production

5. Increasing uncertainties for the future

Framework of Foresight

Inputs

Foresight process• Analysis• Interpretation• Prospection

Outputs

Strategy

Strategic scanning of environment/ Delphi

• Emerging issues/ trends analysis• Systematic thinking/ causal layout analysis• Scenarios visioning, backcasting, roadmaps

Reports, presentations, workshops Multimedia

Strategy development and strategic planning

Second Discussion + Analysis

Global picture of Education/ EFA/ MDGs including Issues & Trends

Country Priorities, Issues and Challenges on Education + Regional Initiatives on EFA Goals and MDGs

Consultations using Foresight and 4 Futures

Gap Analysis

Delphi Survey(2 rounds)

Presentation of Findings and the Post-2015 Agenda to SEAMEO Education

Ministers and other Stakeholders

Futures/Preferred/ Worst Case Scenario, etc

Pre-2015 versus Post-2015 – What is missing and what

are the new targets

Selected target groups

Verify the agenda

First Discussion + Analysis (Global versus Country

Issues)

Gap analysis New set of education agenda

Example used by SEAMEO in developing Post-2015

Education agenda

Range of Futures/ Foresight between “Push and Pull”

Foresight about the future of technology aimed at identifying identifying technology for technology for economic and economic and social changesocial change

Foresight about the future of technology aimed at technology .. technology .. and and priority settingpriority setting

Foresight about social and economic needs and ways in which these might be solved with the help of with the help of TechnologyTechnology

Foresight about social and economic needs aimed at identifying ways to alleviate ways to alleviate social and social and economic economic conditionsconditions

PUSH PULL

SEAMEO Consultation and Development of Post-2015 Education Scenarios and Post-EFA Education

Agenda in Southeast Asia

Development of Post-2015 Education Agenda in Southeast Asia

Drivers of change

Emerging Issues &TrendsDemogra

phic ch

ange

Economic growthEnvironment deterioration and sustainability

Social and cultural diversity

ICT Governance

Public health

ASEA

N C

omm

unity

21st Century skills

AchievementsIn Education Challenges

Lifelong learning

Inte

grat

ion

and

mob

ility

Transnatio

nal issu

es

4 GenericFutures

of Manoa School

Post-2015 short (2015-2020) &

long-term (2015-2035)recommendations

to address the 4 future futures

guided by the 4 futures but other parameters such as

the ASEAN Community,

values and cultures Next step: Determining

preferred future

Development of SEAMEO Strategic Plan (2011-2020) Golden SEAMEO

scenario building

Golden SEAMEO scenario

“live and let die” scenario

12 SEAMEO initiativesSEAMEO College S

EA

ME

O C

ongr

ess

mentoring

knowledge management

grouping the initiatives:unique, shared and common

”business as

usual” scenario

key success factors

strategiesstrategic

validation

ImagineImagine there's no heavenIt’s easy if you tryNo hell below usAbove us only skyImagine all the people living for today

Imagine there's no countriesIt isn’t hard to doNothing to kill or die forAnd no religion tooImagine all the people living life in peace

You, you may say I’m a dreamer, but I'm not the only oneI hope some day you'll join usAnd the world will be as one

Imagine

http://www.bretlsimmons.com/2011-07/leadership-foresight/

Imagine no possessionsI wonder if you canNo need for greed or hungerA brotherhood of manImagine all the people sharing all the world

You, you may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only oneI hope some day you'll join usAnd the world will live as one

Futures, Foresight and the Development of Education in

Southeast Asia

Dr Witaya Jeradechakul

Director, SEAMEO SecretariatBangkok, Thailand

witaya@seameo.org secretariat@seameo.org

Thank you very much.