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ISO‐NE PUBLICISO‐NE PUBLIC
N O V E M B E R 1 7 , 2 0 1 5 | W E S T B O R O U G H , M A
Kannan SreenivasacharP R I N C I P A L E N G I N E E R , T R A N S M I S S I O N P L A N N I N G
Planning Advisory Committee
Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island (SEMA‐RI) 2026 Needs Assessment Scope of Work
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Purpose
• Present the Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island (SEMA‐RI) 2026 Needs Assessment Scope of Work
• Compare the SEMA‐RI 2026 Needs Assessment Scope of Work to the previous SEMA‐RI Needs Assessment Scope of Workpresented at PAC on March 16, 2011 (referred to as the SEMA‐RI 2022 Needs Assessment Scope of Work in this presentation)
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Overview
• Background on the study effort
• Objectives
• Study area description
• Scope of needs assessment
• Schedule/next steps
• Appendix
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Background• The most recent updates for the SEMA‐RI study are:
– Aquidneck Island Reliability Projects were advanced as discussed at the April 28, 2015 PAC meeting
– In October 2015, Entergy Corporation submitted an NPR request for Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station for June 2019
– In February 2015, the preferred solution was selected for the Greater Boston area study and the solution components were added to the SEMA‐RI study due to the influence on the area
– In October 2013, EquiPower submitted an NPR request for Brayton Point Power Station for June 2017
• Links to previous SEMA‐RI presentations and reports have been placed in the Appendix
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Objectives
• Evaluate the reliability performance and identify reliability‐based transmission needs in the SEMA‐RI study area, while considering the following:– Future load growth in the SEMA‐RI area– Long‐term system transfer needs– Reliability over a range of generation patterns and transfer levels
• Brayton Point and Pilgrim retired– Limited short circuit margins in the study area– Coordination with future plans in Boston and NEMA – All applicable transmission planning reliability standards
• Update the assumptions and evaluate reliability‐based transmission needs in SEMA‐RI, while considering overall system performance through 2026
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Study Area – SEMA‐RI Geographical
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Boston Import
CT Import
West Medway ‐Walpole
Farnum
Somerset ‐ Newport
Industrial Park
South Shore
Cape
CT to RI 115 kV Tie
ISO‐NE PUBLIC 7The diagram is shown for reference only and does not include all of the latest topology changes
SEMA‐RI – One Line Diagram
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Major Interfaces Impacting Study Area
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North – South Interface
Boston Import Zone
SEMA/RI ZoneCT Zone
East –West Interface
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Modeling Assumptions • All proposed and planned transmission projects, as of the
May 2015 project listing, will be modeled• The Aquidneck Island Reliability were included in the
base case • All cleared generator additions and submitted
retirements through FCA #9 will be modeled. The table below lists generator retirements in the study area:
New/Retired Generators in SEMA‐RI
Summer Qualified Capacity (MW) Type
Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station 701.5 Non‐Price Retirement
Brayton Point 1544 Non‐Price Retirement
• The 2026 New England summer 90/10 peak load based on CELT 2015 will be modeled, as well as FCA #9‐cleared Demand Resources (DR), forecasted Energy Efficiency (EE) and final 2015 solar photovoltaic (PV) forecast
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Comparison of Load Changes in SEMA‐RI2022 Needs Assessment 2026 Needs Assessment Delta
Load Levels
2022 Summer Peak load level based on 2013 CELT
2026 Summer Peak load level based on 2015 CELT
NE Load : 34,105 MW NE Load : 35,310 MW ∆NE Load = +1,205 MW
SEMA‐RI Load : 6,960 MW SEMA‐RI Load : 7,189 MW ∆SEMA‐RI Load = +229 MW
Demand Resources Forecasted EE and PV Forecast
Includes Passive DR (PDR) and Active DR (ADR) cleared in FCA #1‐7 and FCA #8 NPR requestsSEMA‐RI Passive DR = 322 MWSEMA‐RI Active DR = 110 MW
Includes Passive DR (PDR) and Active DR (ADR) cleared in FCA #1‐9
SEMA‐RI Passive DR = 473 MWSEMA‐RI Active DR = 104 MW
Changes in SEMA‐RI Passive DR (PDR) and Active DR (ADR)
∆PDR = +151 MW∆ADR = ‐6 MW
EE forecast for 2017 ‐ 2022 SEMA‐RI EE Forecast = 261 MW
EE forecast for 2019 ‐ 2026SEMA‐RI EE Forecast = 325 MW
Change in EE∆EE Forecast = +64 MW
Total SEMA‐RI DR, EE = 665 MW(100% Passive DR and EE Forecast, 75% Active DR)
Total SEMA‐RI DR, EE plus PV = 1,026 MW(100% Passive DR and EE Forecast, 75% Active DR, 26% PV Forecast)
∆Total SEMA‐RI DR, EE, plus PV = +360 MW
Net SEMA‐RI Load* 6,295 MW 6,163 MW ‐132 MW
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* For this presentation Net Load = Gross Load – Adjustments for Demand Resources, Forecasted EE and PV Forecast** Final 2015 Solar PV Forecast was presented at the Distributed Generation Forecast Working Group meeting in April 2015. http://www.iso‐ne.com/static‐assets/documents/2015/05/final_2015_pv_forecast.pdf
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Generation Dispatches
Unit OOSQualified Capacity
(MW)
Two Units OOS Dispatch Number
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Canal 1 549.9 OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON
Canal 2 545.1 OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON
Edgar 688.3 ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON
Potter 74.2 ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON
Tiverton 244.6 ON ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON OFF ON
Dighton 160.3 ON ON OFF OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON
Cleary/Taunton 130.8 ON ON ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON
RISE 548 ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON
Manchester / Franklin Sq 11 149 ON ON ON ON OFF OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON ON
Manchester / Franklin Sq 10 149 ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON
NEA Bellingham 277.6 ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF
ANP Bellingham 1 236.4 ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON
ANP Blackstone 1 221.4 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON
Ocean State Power G3, G4, S2 270.2 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON
Ocean State Power G1, G2, S1 270.9 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON
Lake Road 2 251.2 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON
Lake Road 1 245.8 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON
Dartmouth Power 83.1 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON OFF ON ON
Pawtucket Power 61.4 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON ON
SEMass 69.2 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON
Milford 149 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF
*Assume approximately 80% of fast‐start resources available.
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Transfer Levels Tested
Case Interface Level Condition
North‐South Transfers
East‐West Transfers
West toEast Transfers
Boston Import CT Import
AHigh East to West with High North‐
SouthHigh High Low Low High
BHigh West to East with Low North‐
SouthMedium Low High Low Low
CHigh West‐East with Medium North‐South
Medium Low High Medium Low
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Study Methodology• Steady state thermal and voltage analysis will be performed,
for N‐0 (all‐facilities‐in), N‐1 (all‐facilities‐in, first contingency), and N‐1‐1 (facility‐out, first contingency) for the described set of generation dispatches and inter‐regional stresses
• Up to 1,200 MW generation re‐dispatch will be allowed between the first and second contingency to mitigate the N‐1‐1 LTE violations
• Short‐circuit analysis will be performed with representation of latest generation additions and retirements in the study area
• To calculate the CLL and the year of need less than or equal to three years for thermal and voltage violations, the analysis will include Pilgrim station available for dispatch since their retirement date is June 1, 2019
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Next Steps / Schedule
• Post the SEMA‐RI 2026 Needs Assessment Scope of Work report – Q4 2015
• Complete the SEMA‐RI 2026 Needs Assessment including critical load level analysis, present to PAC and post report – Q1 or Q2 2016
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APPENDIX
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Links to Previous SEMA‐RI Presentations and Reports• Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island 2026 Reassessment Initial Study File,
posted to PAC website on October 19, 2015– https://smd.iso‐ne.com/operations‐services/ceii/pac/2015/10/sema_ri_2026_reassessment_initial_study_file_review.zip
• Newport Aquidneck Island Transmission Area Improvements – Needs and Preferred Solutions, presented to PAC on April 28, 2015
– https://smd.iso‐ne.com/planning/ceii/reports/2010s/archive/a7_newport_aquidneck_island_transmission_area_improvements_presentation.pdf
• Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island Area Needs Assessment 2 , presented to PAC on July 15, 2014
– https://smd.iso‐ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/pac/ceii/mtrls/2014/jul152014/a5_sema_ri_area_needs_2_n_1_1_rev1.pdf
• Brayton Point Non‐Price Retirement: Short Term Solutions presented to PAC on July 15, 2014
– https://smd.iso‐ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/pac/ceii/mtrls/2014/jul152014/a4_brayton_pt_npr_short_term_upgrades_rev1.pdf
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Links to Previous SEMA‐RI Presentations and Reports, Cont.
• Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island 2022 Area Needs Assessment II, presented to PAC on February 19, 2014
– https://smd.iso‐ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/pac/ceii/mtrls/2014/feb192014/a8_sema_ri_needs_assessment.pdf
• Final Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island 2022 Needs Assessment – Scope of Work, posted to PAC on May 1, 2013
– https://smd.iso‐ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/pac/ceii/reports/2013/sema_ri_needs_sow_final.pdf
• Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island 2022 Area Needs Assessment I, presented to PAC on October 17, 2012
– https://smd.iso‐ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/pac/ceii/mtrls/2012/oct172012/sema_ri.pdf
• Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island 2021 Area Needs Assessment Scope of Work, presented to PAC on March 16, 2011
– https://smd.iso‐ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/pac/ceii/mtrls/2014/feb192014/a9_swct_needs_assessment_2.pdf
• Additional Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island presentations and reports can be found at the following link
– http://www.iso‐ne.com/committees/planning/planning‐advisory
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