Southern California Coast

Observed Temperature Anomalies

Observed Salinity Anomalies

Geostrophic Along-shore Currents

Warming Trend

Low Frequency Salinity variations

Ocean Modeling

Emanuele Di Lorenzo

North-East Pacific - Mean Surface Temperature

CaliforniaCurrent

USA

Model Domain

CalCOFI In-SituObservations1950 – 2000

(high density sampling domain)

CSection A

Figure (above) : Vertical EOFs 1 along SECTION A for the CalCOFI temperature and (c,d) salinity anomalies. The seasonal cycle is removed. (e,f) EOF 1 for geostrophic alongshore currents relative to 500 m. In (b) and (d) the black line represent the domain average.

CLIMATE CHANGE and EDDIES in the GULF of ALASKAGlobal Warming may lead to increase precipitation over Alaska and Canada. We investigate the effects of enhanced coastal buoyancy fluxes on the generation/dynamics of large scale coastal eddy dynamics and on large scale mixing of nutrients in the Gulf of Alaska.

1998/02/13

1998/03/05

1998/03/25

m

Haida Eddies

Sitka Eddy

Sea Surface Height [m]

with V. Combes (GaTech). NSF support.

WARMING of the CALIFORNIA CURRENTAn eddy resolving models of the California Current is combined with 52 year long in situ observations of Temperature and Salinity from the California Cooperative Fisheries Investigation, to elucidate the dynamics of upper ocean warming and their effect on ocean biology.

60° E 110° E 160° E 150° W

100° W

0°

30° S

30° N India ChinaINDO-PACENSO February 1998 SSH anomaly

Australia

0 2 4-2-4cm

INDO-PACIFIC THEMROCLINE DYNAMICS, Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modeling ApproachA coupled ocean-atmosphere model is used to investigate the dynamics of the indo-pacific thermocline on decadal and ENSO timescale. In particular we investigate the relationship between upwelling and the Indian Ocean dipole mode.

UPWELLING in the ARABIAN SEA and INDIAN OCEAN WARMING TREND

Indian Ocean

North Pacific Ocean

with N. Schneider (UH), A. Miller (Scripps), J. McWilliams (UCLA). NSF, NASA support.

The dynamics leading to the spatial pattern of the Indian Ocean warming trend are investigated. In particular we focus on the dynamical controls of the Arabian upwelling and biological productivity, to isolate the competing effects associated with changes in monsoonal upwelling winds, upper ocean stratification and thermocline depth.

Canada

Sea Surface Temperature – EOF 1

Arabian Sea

Warming Trend over the Indian OceanUpwelling Winds vs. detrended SST

Biological Modeling

with S. Vieira and P. Webster (GaTech), A. Bracco (WHOI). NSF support.

M1

Spring

Summer

Fall

Winter

3

2

1

03

2

1

03

2

1

03

2

1

0

-100

-200

-100

-200

-100

-200

-100

-200

MODEL OBSERVATIONS

-124 -122 -120 -124 -122 -120Longitude W Longitude W

Dep

th m

Dep

th m

Dep

th m

Dep

th m

SPATIAL/TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF CHLOROPHYLL-AEcosystem models forced by coastal ocean models are used to the variability of CHL-A and its response to climate change.

Spring Summer

Fall Winter3

3

0

1.5

1.5

-125 -120 -115-125 -120 -115

38

36

34

32

38

36

34

32

Lati

tude N

Lati

tude N

CalCOFI

Model

M1

MODELING BIOLOGICAL OBSERVATIONSThe Ecosystem model forced by coastal are compared to the CalCOFI observations and used to diagnose the relationship between physical costal dynamics and biological productivity.

part of NSF-LTER site project in the California Current