Southern Oklahoma WIOA Local Plan Modification October 2019

Southern Workforce Board

October 2019 Modification

Attestations

Workforce Development Area Southern

WDB Chair Chyrel Fortner

Chief Local Elected Official Tony Simmons

WDB Executive Director Kerry Manning

One Stop Operator(s)

The following signatures attest that:

They submit this local plan on behalf of the local WDB and Local Elected Officials in the area; The planning was done with leaders within the community and represents the collective thinking of those

local representatives; The information contained herein is true and accurate to the best of their knowledge; The local plan represents the local board’s and local elected officials’ efforts to maximize resources

available under Title I of WIOA and to coordinate these resources with other State and Local programs in the local area;

They will operate the local system in accordance with the local plan, and, applicable federal and state laws, regulations, policies and rules; and,

All assurances within this template have been met.

WDB Chair Typed/Printed Name: _ Chryel Fortner ________________________________

Signature _________________________________________ Date _________________

Chief Local Elected Official Typed/Printed Name: ___Tony Simmons___________________

Signature _________________________________________ Date _________________

Page 8The State and the Southern Region have identified five key demand industry sectors or “ecosystems” that are wealth generating and reflect the Board’s Demand Occupations:

Transportation and Distribution – projected to grow 12.2% by 2020 Energy – projected to grow 9.3% Information and Financial Services – projected to grow 6.3% Agriculture and BioSciences – projected to grow 3.2% Aerospace and Defense – projected to grow 1.5%

The State and Region have also identified three complementary ecosystems that are a vital part of the region’s economy and are in high demand throughout:

Construction – projected to grow 9.4% by 2020 Healthcare – projected to grow 7% Manufacturing – projected to grow 7%

EcosystemEstimated Net

Job Growth (2018-2028)

Ecosystem Growth Rate (2018-2028)

Average Annual Earnings Comments

Aerospace and Defense 625 11.9% $53,486

Agriculture and Bioscience 410 5.0% $47,622

Energy 815 9.8% $88,886 1) Highest average earnings

Information and Financial Services 485 9.1% $52,712

Transportation and Distribution 1,514 11.3% $56,279

Construction 2,776 19.0% $56,682

1) Highest rate of growth. 2) Ranked second in most newly created jobs predicted by 2028. 3) Second largest employing ecosystem in number of jobs.

Education (-1,220) (-9.2%) $45,9131) Only ecosystem predicted to decline in employment.

Health Care 2,960 13.1% $42,5661) Largest employing ecosystem in number of jobs. 2) Second highest rate of growth.

Manufacturing 682 11.6% $60,029 1) Second highest average earnings.

Page 23Data regarding educational attainment are gathered by the U.S. Census Bureau utilizing a variety of surveys. Census Bureau staff aggregate the data into seven educational attainment categories ranging from the completion of “Less than 9th Grade” up to the attainment of a “Graduate Degree or Higher.” Unfortunately, the scale currently in use fails to quantify those individuals who have achieved an educational award above the level of a high school diploma but below the attainment of an Associate’s Degree. This missing category is generally characterized by the completion of a career-specific vocationally associated certificate or an industry-recognized credential. The educational attainment levels, categorized utilizing the Census Bureau classifications, are discussed below and followed by two charts, “Educational Attainment by Education Level” and “Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity.” Data are provided for individuals aged 25 and over.Figure X: Educational Attainment by Educational Level; Southern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area compared with Oklahoma and the United States

Less Than 9th Grade

9th Grade to 12th Grade

High School Diploma

Some College

Associa

tes Degree

Bachelor's

Degree

Graduate Degree and Higher

6%10%

38%

22%

7%

11%

6%6%8%

31%

24%

7%

16%

8%7% 7%

28%

21%

8%

19%

11%

Southern WFDA State of Oklahoma United States

Source: EMSI 2019.2 Figure X: Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity; Southern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area

Whi

te

Blac

k

Nati

veAm

eric

an

Asia

n

Nati

veHa

wai

ian/

Paci

fic

Isla

nder

Two

or

Mor

e Ra

ces

Non

-Hi

span

ic

Hisp

anic

16% 17% 17% 18%

33%

17% 15%

45%

60%64% 61%

36%

54%58% 61%

41%

24%19% 22%

46%

13%

25% 24%

14%

Less than High School High School Diploma College Degree

RACE ETHNICITY Source: EMSI 2019.2

Page 21Local Workforce Analysis: Unemployment, Trends, Education and Skills

1. Provide an analysis of the local workforce, including current labor force employment and unemployment data, information on labor market trends, and educational and skill levels of the workforce, including individuals with barriers to employment.

Unemployment Rate

The Southern Workforce Area has experienced varying unemployment levels in the past six years. After reaching a peak of 8.2% in January 2011, Southern’s unemployment rate has, for the most part, steadily decreased to an unemployment rate of 5.5% in December 2016.

Following an initial upswing in unemployment rates to 4.9% in January 2018, preliminary figures for February through May 2018 indicate the unemployment rate is generally stable, reaching a low of 4.2% in April before increasing 0.1% in May to 4.3%.

Skills Gap

Building upon the educational attainment data presented previously, a skills gap analysis was completed. To achieve this analysis, the current level of educational achievement of Area residents was directly compared to the typical entry level of education required by newly created jobs projected to develop between 2018 and 2028. The chart “Skills Gap for Newly Created Jobs by 2028” follows the analysis and illustrates the educational gap identified.

The Area is expected to experience a 27 percentage point skill gap by 2028. o Overall, to meet the projected developing needs of employers for newly created jobs, 71.4% of the

workforce must possess an education above a high school diploma through postsecondary education including credentials, certificates or degrees.

o Current attainment at those levels is estimated at 44.3% -- 27 percentage points below anticipated requirements.

o Based upon the projected 2028 estimated population of 409,328, an estimated 110,519 additional Area residents must obtain some level of education above a high school diploma. This estimate is compounded when factoring in the anticipated need for individuals with even higher educational levels discussed below.

The differential between current attainment and employer need at the Bachelor’s level is 3.4 percentage points. At the Graduate Degree or Higher level (Master’s, Doctoral, or Professional Degrees), need is estimated at 3.9% versus a current attainment rate of 5.6%. This basic analysis, however, may be misleading. Three important factors substantially impact the estimated need for these degree levels:

1. Variability of the data. The data utilized for this analysis are based upon projected need which is rooted in historical data. They are, by their very nature, estimates which can change as economic conditions and workforce demands evolve. As time progresses, it is probable that the need for higher degrees will increase.

2. Degree misalignment. The projected shortfall of 3.4 percentage points at the Bachelor’s degree level will be compounded by a misalignment of degree specialty. The existence of a sufficient number of individuals possessing a Bachelor’s Degree fails to meet the needs of employers if those degrees do not provide the appropriate training necessary to fulfill job requirements. As an example, 10 individuals with degrees in management cannot meet the needs of employers requiring 10 engineers.

3. Surplus of graduate degrees. It must be considered that the 1.7 percentage point “surplus” of individuals who already possess a Graduate Degree or higher may place downward pressure on the need for Bachelor’s Degrees as more highly trained job seekers accept positions below their educational attainment. This may somewhat lessen the impact of the projected deficit and degree misalignment at the Bachelor’s degree level; however, it is also probable that these individuals may be drawn outside the Area or the state for employment better suited to their educational achievement rather than choosing to fill positions with lower educational requirements.

Given all of these factors, overall, there is a significant unmet need for highly skilled, highly educated residents in the Area. Of particular consideration to meet these needs must be increased mentoring and engagement with students at all levels to enhance educational outcomes as well as improved communication to ensure those students 1) make informed decisions regarding their long-term educational plans and 2) align themselves with future workforce needs.

Source: EMSI, 2018.2

Figure 7: Skills Gap for Newly Created Jobs by 2028, Southern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area

Page 24Critical Occupations List

The Oklahoma Office of Workforce Development (OOWD) continually monitors in-demand and critical occupations across the state. The annual state-wide Top 100 Critical Occupations List is longitudinal and focuses on job growth, acknowledging the need for extended time frames to achieve higher levels of education necessary to prepare potential job applicants for future employment. These jobs emphasize the state’s desire to 1) meet labor demands so that businesses and entrepreneurs involved in all industries can grow and prosper, and 2) Oklahoma citizens can maintain wealth generating employment.

Occupations must meet several criteria to be included on the list. The methodology includes four primary criteria: Vital to one of Oklahoma’s five key or four regional/complementary ecosystems (discussed later in this report); Projected growth across a 10-year timeline: Eliminates all occupations with projected negative growth (overall

job loss); Wealth generation: Eliminates occupations with median hourly earnings of less than $12 per hour; and, Educational attainment levels: Eliminates all occupations requiring “no formal education” unless the occupation

reports competitive median hourly earnings greater than $20 per hour.To ensure representation of occupations from all educational levels, the list of remaining occupations is stratified by the typical entry-level educational requirement and the top ranked occupations are selected from each educational group.

Due to the reduced number of jobs and population in each Workforce Development Area, Area Critical Occupation lists are limited to the top 50, though the methodology remains unchanged. Table 3 contains the most recent Top 50 Area Critical Occupations for Southern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area as of February, 2018. The list is ordered by median hourly earnings, greatest to least.

Commuter Data

The U.S. Census Bureau Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program uses data from a variety of sources including the unemployment insurance program, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), and administrative data from censuses and surveys to create models estimating worker commutes for employment. Figure 8, “Commuter Patterns, Southern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area,” and Figure 9, “Inflow/Outflow Commuter Map” following the analysis summary, illustrate the commuter trends for residents of each Area county and for the Area as a whole. Data are quoted for 2015, the latest available from this source.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau models:

Commuter inflow and outflow are relatively balanced. While 37,033 individuals enter the Area for employment, 39,374 exit. In terms of commuter inflow, all of the surrounding counties supply workers to the Area. Most of these workers reside north of the Area, with particular concentrations in the Tulsa, Oklahoma City, and Fort Smith metropolitan areas. For counties along the southern Oklahoma border, workers enter the Area for employment predominantly from Cooke and Grayson Counties, Texas.

Approximately 52.5% of workers leaving the Area are between the ages of 30 and 54. Those individuals predominantly work in the “All Other Services” industry classification (53.2%) and earn between $1,251 and $3,333 per month (40.4%).

Like outbound commuters, commuters entering the Area for employment are between 30 and 54 years of age (52.2%), work in the “All Other Services” industry (55.1%), and earn between $1,251 and $3,333 per month (42%).

The Area retains 71% of residents for employment. Most of those individuals who commute outside the region travel to the Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Fort Smith, Arkansas metropolitan area for employment.

Five counties retain more than 50% of working residents for employment: Bryan, Carter, McCurtain, Pittsburg, and Pontotoc. Carter County retains the highest percentage at 64.0%. Conversely, Johnston County retains the lowest percentage at 27.5%. Those workers from Johnston County predominantly remain in the Area, traveling to Ardmore in Carter County for employment.

Le Flore County experiences the highest percentage of workers leaving the Area for employment at 45.4%, significantly more than the second highest rated Haskell County at 36.0% loss. Most of the commuters from these two counties travel to Fort Smith, Arkansas for employment. While the earnings in Le Flore and Haskell Counties are somewhat comparable to those in Fort Smith ($44,183 versus $46,748 annually, respectively), providing marginal incentive to commute for fiscal reasons, job densities vary significantly. In 2018, only 16,618 jobs were reported in the combined counties of Le Flore and Haskell while 110,998 were reported in Fort Smith. These density figures provide substantially greater job opportunity and variety, possibly serving as an incentive to leave Oklahoma and work in Arkansas.

Commuting can no longer be strictly defined as physical relocation for employment. Data indicate that Southern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area residents who commute outside the region to work do so not only in adjacent counties and states but across the nation. These data emphasize the growing trend of telework.

Figure 8: Commuter Patterns, Southern Oklahoma Workforce Development Area

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics (LEHD); On-The-Map

Page 30, 71, 110

ResCare strikethrough Dynamic Workforce Solutions added

a. Service Provider(s) for Adult and Dislocated Worker WIOA Title I Basic and Individualized Career ServicesResCare Services

Sherry Latham

Southern Oklahoma Project Director

4209 West Highway 70

Durant, OK 74701

Office: 580-924-1828

Sherry.latham@rescare.com

b. Service Provider(s) for Youth WIOA Title I ServicesResCare Services

Sherry Latham

Southern Oklahoma Project Director

4209 West Highway 70

Durant, OK 74701

Office: 580-924-1828

Sherry.latham@rescare.com

Added:

Dynamic Workforce Solutions

Toni Smith

tsmith@dwfs.us

Page 31

DOC Skill Centers lack of ID and Supportive Services, and other transitional services availability added to weaknesses.

Housing and Childcare added to Threats

ICAP added to opportunities

Page 37

Increase in lineman in the energy field leaving to go to other states because of pay added to Employer Issues