southside dlr unemployment monitoring tool

New Ways of Mapping Unemployment

A joint initiative of Southside Partnership DLR and the National Institute for Regional and Spatial Analysis

Bewleys Hotel, Leopardstown, October 18th, 2012

Outline

• Changing patterns of Unemployment – QNHS – Census – Live Register

• Mapping Live Register data – Working with DSP – Confidentiality Issues – Richness of data – Geo-coding and mapping results

• Case Study: Loughlingstown • Demonstration of Southside Mapping Tool • Next Steps

NIRSA / AIRO • National Institute for Regional and Spatial Analysis (NIRSA) – remit to

undertake fundamental, applied and comparative research on spatial processes and their effects on social and economic development in Ireland

• The All-Island Research Observatory (AIRO) is a research unit and spatial data portal focused on improving evidence informed planning in Ireland – Collects, analyses and provides evidence and tools to support better

planning and decision making • Maximise the usage and benefit of publically funded and readily

available datasets • Work with Government Departments/Government Agencies to

highlight the benefit of proper collection, management and dissemination of datasets

Changing patterns of Unemployment

• Unemployment can be measured through a number of datasets – Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS) – Census data – Live Register data

• Datasets vary in terms of usability – Spatial Scale – Frequency – Level of detail within dataset

• QNHS is the main measurement of unemployment – Production of quarterly labour force estimates (based on survey of 39,000 households)

• Employed, Unemployed, Unemployment Rate, Labour force participation rate – Persons who, in the week before the survey, were without work and available for work

within the next two weeks, and had taken specific steps, in the preceding four weeks, to find work.

– National (detailed) and Regional level (main count only) – Gender, Age-Bands, Duration of unemployment

Changing patterns of Unemployment (QNHS)

• Q2’11 QNHS results: 304,500 currently unemployed (14.3%) – + 211,600 since Q1 2006 – Increase of +227%


• Much of this increase can be attributed to the collapse of the construction industry and housing boom

• Late 2006 12.5% of labour force were employed in Construction (268,400) – Now at 4.9% (105,700)


• A worrying aspect of the current trend is the increased number who are now classed as being ‘long-term unemployed’ – those unemployed for >1 year


• QNHS allows for Regional analysis of unemployment patterns – NUTS III

• Border, Midlands, West, Dublin, Mid-East, Mid-West, South-East and South-West

• Considerable variance in unemployment rates – Highest: South-East 18.2% – Dublin: 12.1%


• Ireland now has the 5th highest unemployment rate in Europe

– Lowest in 2006 • Spain (21.2%), Greece

(16.7%), Latvia (16.2%) and Lithuania (15.6%) highest in 2011

Changing patterns of Unemployment (Census)

• Census data currently provides the best means of understanding unemployment levels at the local level – Every 5 years (96, 02, 06) – ED level and EA level in 5 cities – New Small Area level in 2011 census

• Unemployment levels by gender – Looking for first regular job – Unemployed, having lost or given up previous job

• All ’02 and ‘06 census data is currently available on AIRO mapping modules – Regional – County – Local Partnership


• AIRO Website – Greater Dublin Area

http://www.airo.ie/mapping-module/atlas/regional/AIRO_IA---NUTS%2B111_Greater%2BDublin%2BArea

Changing patterns of Unemployment (Live Register CSO)

• An alternative method of analysing the spatial patterns of unemployment is to use the unadjusted Live Register at Social Welfare Office level

– Not specifically designed to measure unemployment as it includes part-time, seasonal and casual workers entitled to Jobseekers Allowance and Jobseekers Benefit

• Live Register data – Jobseekers Benefit (JB) – Jobseekers Allowance (JA)

• Advantages: – 122 Offices – Monthly – Gender – Age Band

• Under 25 years • 25 years and over • All ages

• In September 2011 there were 437,111 signing on the Live Register – Decrease of 4,976 over the year (-1.1%) – First annual decrease since Aril 2007

• Jobseekers Benefit 100,885 (29.9%) • Jobseekers Allowance 306,557 (70.1%)



http://www.nuim.ie/nirsa/research/animatedmaps/liveregister/

• Office level data allows for an analysis of unemployment trends at both the county and sub-county (office level)

– 17 Office in Dublin

• Monthly data is updated on AIRO ‘Live Register Office Monitoring Tool’


http://www.airo.ie/mapping-module/atlas/Unemployment/Live%2BRegister%2BMonitoring%2BTool%2B-%2BSW%2BOffice

Changing patterns of Unemployment (Live Register DSP)

• Data currently available at Office Level only

• Requirement to unlock the detail within the DSP database

• What are the specific catchments of the SW Offices?

– What is the Live Register figure for Southside? – Have levels increased across the Partnership? – Can we map the data at neighbourhood level?

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• Data currently available at Office Level only

• Requirement to unlock the detail within the DSP database

• What are the specific catchments of the SW Offices?

– What is the Live Register figure for Southside? – Have levels increased across the Partnership? – Can we map the data at neighbourhood level?


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• Tallaght DSP Regional SW Office – Southside Offices: DLR, Nutgrove, Bray – Data extracts

• w/e Jan 2008, w/e Jan 2009, w/e Jan 2010, w/e April 2010, w/e October 2010, w/e January 2011, w/e April 2011, w/e October 2011

• Data Protection a major concern for DSP – Confidentiality Agreement set up between DSP and NIRSA – Reviewed by Data Protection Commissioner

• NIRSA appointed as Data Processor – All data stored on encrypted USB – To be processed on non-networked PC – Individual records to be aggregated to EDs and EAs – Aggregates with <5 are to be compressed


– Data included in extracts • Claim Code:

– Jobseekers Benefit – Jobseekers Assistance – One Parent Family – Back To Work – Unemployment Benefit Credits Only

• Claim Start Date – Long term Unemployment • Prev. Occupation • Personal Rate, Net Flat Rate, • Sex • Date of Birth (Year only) • Marital Status • Country Code • Address Detail (Add1, Add2, Add3, County Name)

– Names and PPS excluded from extracts


• DSP data is cleaned and given a spatial reference by matching to GeoDirectory

• Each database entry now has an x/y coordinate and can be mapped

• We now know where every Live Register recipient lives and can be aggregated to any boundary or catchment


• Success rate of address matching? – DLR - 96% – Nutgrove - 97% – Bray (only 7.5% within SSP area)

• % of extract within Southside Partnership? – DLR - 96% – Nutgrove - 52% – Bray - 7.5%

Changing patterns of Unemployment (Live Register DSP) • Total Live Register recipients in Southside April ‘11

– 14,607 – +217% since Extract 1 in January 2008


– 14,607 – +217% since Extract 1 in January 2008 – Detailed spatial distribution now available through AIRO


– 14,607 – +217% since Extract 1 in January 2008 – Detailed spatial distribution now available through AIRO – EA 05/059: Loughlinstown = Wyattville Road, Glenavon Park, Cedar Ct, Laurel Ave

Changing patterns of Unemployment (Live Register DSP) • Loughlinstown – 2006 Census

– 2006 Population of 971 • 24% Aged 0-14 • 73% Aged 15-64 • 3% Aged 65+

– % of Labour Force classed as unemployed in 2006 • 14.17% • 7% highest rate

Changing patterns of Unemployment (Live Register DSP) • Live Register rate per 1000 pop (to be updated with 2011 Labour Force

results) – Southside Partnership: 77 per 1000 pop – Loughlinstown Study Area: 257 per 1000 pop

Changing patterns of Unemployment (Live Register DSP) • W/E April 2011 results

– Total Live Register: 250 • 115 Male/135 Female • 39 Aged Under 25/ 175 Aged 25 to 49/ 36 Aged 50 plus

– Type of claim

Changing patterns of Unemployment (Live Register DSP) • W/E April 2011 results


– Claim by Gender and Age Band

Changing patterns of Unemployment (Live Register DSP) • Focus on w/e April 2011 results


– Length of Claim


• Data available for 206 individual areas within Southside Partnership – Previously available for 3 Offices

• Currently 7 extracts available – 2008, 2009 – 2010 *3 – 2011 *2

• Variables currently available: – Total Claims (JA, JB, OFP) – Total Claims per 1000 population (JA, JB, OFP) – Total Claims by Gender (JA, JB, OFP) – Total Claims by Gender and Age Band (JA, JB, OFP) – Length of Claim by Gender and Age Band (JA, JB, OFP) – Previous Occupation

• Southside Partnership Unemployment Mapping Tool hosted on AIRO website

• Query data, Identify trends, Create maps, Download images, Download data etc

http://www.airo.ie/mapping-module/atlas/Southside_Partnership_Live_Register/Unemployment%2BMonitoring%2BTool

Next Steps 1. Potential roll out of project to wider Dublin Region

1. 18 Offices (including Bray) 2. Development of Interactive Mapping Tool for the city 3. Starting 2012 for 18 month period (6 extracts) 4. Outputs available for DSP, Local Partnerships and Local Authorities

2. Development of accurate Social Welfare Office catchments 3. GAP Analysis: areas of high demand with poor service 4. Promote new address collection process within DSP

1. Correct address captured and linked with geography (ED, EA, SA) at source

5. Evaluate the use of new evidence base within Southside Partnership 1. Start using the tool within organisation 2. Development of new employment strategies 3. Evaluation of success 4. Monitoring of changing trends in unemployment

Thank you

Questions?

Presentation will be available on www.airo.ie later today

southside dlr unemployment monitoring tool

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