SPACE AND NUCLEAR WEAPONRY IN THE 1990s

STUDIES IN DISARMAMENT AND CONFLICTS Edited by David Carlton and Carlo Schaerf

THE DYNAMICS OF THE ARMS RACE INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM AND WORLD SECURITY ARMS CONTROL AND TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION

* CONTEMPORARY TERROR: Studies in Sub-State Violence * THE HAZARDS OF THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY CRISIS * THE ARMS RACE IN THE 1980s * SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE AFTER TITO: A Powder-Keg for the 1980s? * REASSESSING ARMS CONTROL * THE ARMS RACE IN THE ERA OF STAR WARS * PERSPECTIVES ON THE ARMS RACE * THE ARMS RACE IN AN ERA OF NEGOTIATIONS

* Also published by Macmillan

Space and Nuclear Weaponry in the 1990s

Edited by

Carlo Schaerf Professor of Physics University of Rome 1/

Giuseppe Longo Professor of Physics University of Bologna

and

David Carlton Lecturer in International Studies University of Warwick

M

© International School on Disannament and Research on Conflicts 1992 Softcover reprint of the hardcover I st edition 1992

All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written pennission.

No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written pennission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the tenns of any licence pennitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London WlP 9HE.

Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.

First published 1992 by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world

ISBN 978-1-349-12786-3 ISBN 978-1-349-12784-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-12784-9

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Contents

Preface viii List of Abbreviations X

Notes on the Contributors X Ill

PART I SPACE WEAPONRY

1 The Present Status of the Strategic Defense Initiative 3 Dietrich Schroeer Introduction 3 Funding Patterns 4 SDI Weapons Developments 5 Feasibility of Strategic Defences 12 Current Systems Plans 17 Effects of SDI Results on SDI Programmes 18 SDI and Strategic-defence Options 22 SDI Spin-offs 28 Conclusions 31

2 Banning ASAT Weapons 39 Cheng Dongquan and Huang Zhen Introduction 39 A Survey of Artificial Satellites 39 A Survey of ASAT Weapons 42 Relations between Satellites and ASAT Weapons 43 Banning Strategic Defence Systems 44 Proposals 46

3 Monitoring and Regulating Dangerous Space Activities 47 Paolo Farinella and Luciano Anselmo Introduction 47 The Future of Space Activities 47 Nuclear Power Systems in Space 50 Space Debris 54 Uncontrolled Re-entries 57 Current Surveillance of Space Activities 59 An International Agency to Monitor Space Activities 60 Conclusions 66

v

vi Contents

4 The Technical Basis for Bans on Space Nuclear Reactors and Ground-based Anti-satellite Lasers 71 Frank von Hippe/ Introduction 71 A Ban on Nuclear Reactors in Earth Orbit 71 A Ban on Laser ASA TS 75 Conclusion 81

PART II NUCLEAR WEAPONRY 83

5 Arms Control and Arsenal Reductions: An Overview 85 Yuri Pinchukov Introduction 85 Key Elements of the Emerging START Treaty 85 Nuclear Testing 89

6 Reflections on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons 91 Pan Zhenqiang The Present Status Quo of the Non-proliferation Regime 91 Prospects 97 The Direction of New Efforts 99 China and the Non-proliferation Regime 102

7 Not What the Strategists had in Mind: Arms Control and American Security 104 Michael Nacht Introduction 104 What is Arms Control and Who Says So? 105 Personalities, Domestic Politics and the Sense of History 114

8 China and START 119 Liu Huaqiu

9 Nuclear Weapons in the Mediterranean 125 Giuseppe Longo Nuclear Weapons at Sea and the Arms Limitation and Reduction Talks 125 Nuclear Weapons in the Mediterranean: Threats to Peace and to the Environment 132 Proposals for Reducing Naval Nuclear Weapons 140

Contents Vll

10 Nuclear Test Moratoria, Test Bans and the Non-proliferation Treaty 150 Gerald W. Johnson

11 A Feasible Way Towards a Comprehensive Test Ban 159 Hu Side and Liu Gongliang Nuclear Tests and the Arms Race 159 A Historical Review and Evaluation of Negotiations for a Nuclear Test Ban 161 Obstacles to a Comprehensive Test Ban 165 A Feasible Way Towards a CTB 167

12 On-site Inspection for Compliance with Treaties 171 David W. Dorn Introduction 171 History 172 Types ofOSI 173 Benefits and Risks 174 Conclusion 180

13 The Hidden Costs of Arms Control 182 Dorinda G. Dallmeyer Introduction 182 The INF Inspection Regime 182 The Demand for 'Effective Verification' 184 The INF Experience 186 Monitoring Compliance with Limits on Strategic Weapons 188 Costs of Monitoring Compliance with START 190 Conclusions 192

Index 195

Preface

The chapters in this volume were presented to the following courses of the International School on Disarmament and Research on Conflicts (ISODARCO): third winter course held at Folgaria (Trento), Italy, between 20 January and 4 February 1990; second seminar abroad held in Beijing, China, between 3 and 10 April 1990; the thirteenth summer course held in L'Aquila, Italy, between 27 July and 5 August 1990; and to the Interna­tional Summer Course on Global Security, Arms Control and Disarmament: General Problems, European and Mediterranean Issues held in Bologna between 16 and 26 July 1990, organised by the Union of Scientists for Disarmament and the Interdepartmental Research Centre 'University for Peace' (CIRUP) of the University of Bologna.

The organisation of all these courses was made possible by the generous collaboration and financial contribution of many organisations and indi­viduals to whom goes our deepest gratitude:

The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation The Scuola Superiore G. Reiss Romoli The Regional Administration of Emilia-Romagna The Town Council and the Province of Bologna The Sloan Foundation The China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) The Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics

(IAPCM) The University of L' Aquila The II University of Rome 'Tor Vergata' The University of Trento

We wish to acknowledge the dedicated collaboration of Professor Giuseppina Orlandini of the University of Trento, Dr Mirco Elena of the Institute for Scientific and Technological Research (IRST) of Trento and Professor Armando Reale of the University of L 'Aquila.

For secretarial work our thanks are due to Liu Catena, Isabella Colace and Claudia Vaughn.

viii

Preface IX

All opinions expressed in the chapters are of a purely personal nature and do not necessarily represent the official view of either the organisers of the School or of the organisations with which the writers may be affiliated.

CARLO SCHAERF

GIUSEPPE LONGO

DAVID CARLTON

List of Abbreviations

ABM AIAA ALCM ALS ALPS APS ASAT ATBM BM/C3

BMD BP BSTS CBO CCD CDE CFE CTB CTBT c3 DAB DEW DOD DOE DPS DSP EML EMT ERIS FAS FEL GAO GBI GBSTS GEODSS GLCM HEDI

Anti-ballistic Missile American Institute of Astronautics and Aeronautics Air-launched Cruise Missile Advanced Launch System Accidental Launch Protection System American Physical Society Anti-satellite Anti-tactical Ballistic Missile Battle Management, Command, Control and Communication Ballistic Missile Defence Brilliant Pebbles Boost Surveillance and Tracking System Congressional Budget Office (US) Charged Coupled Device Conference on Disarmament in Europe Conventional Forces in Europe Comprehensive Test Ban Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Command, Control, Communication Defense Acquisition Board (US) Directed Energy Weapon Department of Defense (US) Department of Energy (US) Defense Positioning System Defense Surveillance Program Electromagnetic Launcher Equivalent Megatonnage Endoatmospheric Re-entry Interceptor System Federation of American Scientists Free-electron Laser General Administration Office (US) Ground-based Interceptor Ground-based Surveillance and Tracking System Ground-based Electro-optical Deep Space Surveillance Ground-launched Cruise Missile High Endoatmospheric Defense Interceptor

X

List of Abbreviations xi

HF High Frequency HOE Homing Overlay Experiment IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency lASS International Agency for Space Surveillance ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile INF Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces IRBM Intermediate-range Ballistic Missile JVE Joint Verification Experiment KEW Kinetic Energy Weapon kt kiloton LACE Light Atmospheric Compensation Experiment LDEF Long-duration Exposure Facility LTBT Limited Test Ban Treaty MIRV Multiple Independently-targetable Re-entry Vehicle MOA Memorandum of Agreement MOU Memorandum of Understanding NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration (US) NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NPB Neutral Particle Beam NPT Non-proliferation Treaty NTM National Technical Means occ Operations Control Centre OSI On-site Inspection OSIA On-site Inspection Agency (US) OTA Office of Technology Assessment (US) PNET Peaceful Nuclear Explosions Treaty Rand D Research and Development RME Reflecting Mirror Experiment RORSAT Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite RTG Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator RV Re-entry Vehicle Sand L Survival and Lethality SA/BM Systems Analysis and Battle Management SALT Strategic Arms Limitation Talks SATKA Surveillance, Acquisition, Tracking, and Kill Assessment SBI Space-based Interceptor sec Standing Consultative Commission SDI Strategic Defense Initiative SDIO Strategic Defense Initiative Organisation SLBM Submarine-launched Ballistic Missile SLCM Sea-launched Cruise Missile

xii

SNDV SRAM SSBN SSN SSTS START TTBT

List of Abbreviations

Strategic Nuclear Delivery Vehicle Short-range Attack Missile Nuclear-powered Ballistic Missile Submarine Space Surveillance Network Satellite Surveillance and Tracking System Strategic Arms Reduction Talks Threshold Test Ban Treaty

Notes on the Contributors

Luciano Anselmo (Italian) is on the Research Staff of the Spaceflight Dynamics Section of the National Computing Centre of the Italian Research Council in Pisa. He has been involved in supporting several space missions.

David Carlton (British) (co-editor) is Lecturer in International Studies at the University of Warwick. He is author of Anthony Eden: A Biography and of Britain and the Suez Crisis. He is co-editor of eleven previous volumes in this series.

Cheng Dongquan (Chinese) is a Professor at the Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics in Beijing. He is currently en­gaged in studies of laser theory.

Dorinda G. Dallmeyer (US) is Research Director at the Dean Rusk Center for International Comparative Law, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia. She is editor of The Strategic Defense Initiative: New Perspectives on Deterrence.

David W. Dorn (US) is Principal Deputy on the Treaty Verification Pro­gram of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. He has served as Advisor to the US Department of Energy and as a US Delegate to the Conference on Disarmament.

Paolo Farinella (Italian) is a Researcher in Astrophysics and Celestial Mechanics at the University of Pisa. He is co-author of a report on alternative defence concepts and the role of Italy commissioned by the Italian Ministry of Defence.

Huang Zhen (Chinese) is a staff member of the Chinese People's Associa­tion for Peace and Disarmament. She was awarded a Bachelor of Arts degree by Anhui University in 1985.

Hu Side (Chinese) is Deputy Director of the Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics in Beijing. Professor Hu is a specialist on problems of verification.

xiii

xiv Notes on the Contributors

Gerald W. Johnson (US) is an Adjunct Professor at the University of California's Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation. He was formerly Associate Director for nuclear-weapon testing at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Liu Gongliang (Chinese) is a Professor at the Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics in Beijing.

Liu Huaqiu (Chinese) is a Senior Fellow on the Commission on Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence in Beijing. He is author of China and the Neutron Bomb (1988).

Giuseppe Longo (Italian) (co-editor) is Professor of Physics at the Univer­sity of Bologna. He is also a member of the Executive Board of the university's interdepartmental Research Centre for Peace.

Michael Nacht (US) is Professor of Public Policy and Dean of the School of Public Affairs at the University of Maryland. He was previously Associ­ate Director of the Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. He was founding co-editor of International Security.

Pan Zhenqiang (Chinese) is Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies at the National Defence University in Beijing.

Yuri Pinchukov ()oviet) is Head of the Section of General Problems of Disarmament at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow. He formerly conducted research at the Kurchatov Institute of Atomic Energy and at the Space Research Institute of the Soviet Academy of Sciences.

Carlo Schaerf (Italian) (co-editor) is Professor of Physics at the second University of Rome, 'Tor Vergata'. He was previously on the staff of the Italian Atomic Energy Commission. With Professor Edoardo Amaldi he founded in 1966 the International School on Disarmament and Research on Conflicts. He is co-editor of eleven previous volumes in this series.

Dietrich Schroeer (US) is Professor of Physics in the Department of Physics and Astronomy at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. He is author of Science, Technology and the Nuclear Arms Race (1984).

Notes on the Contributors XV

Frank von Rippel (US) is Professor of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University. He is Chairman of the Board of Editors of Science and Global Security.