space and sustainability bis seminar 25th march 2009
DESCRIPTION
Updated presentation on space and sustainability presented to BIS seminar; "Can space save the earth?". 25th March 2009TRANSCRIPT
Space Tourism
And
Sustainability
Steven Fawkes
24th March 2009
Space Tourism and Sustainable Development
Sustainable development is a vital issue
Space tourism links to sustainable development on several levels
Space tourism can make a significant positive impact on global sustainability
Space tourism industry needs to acknowledge the links
Sustainable Development
development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs The Brundtland Commission 1987
MAJOR INTERCONNECTED ISSUES: • Population growth • Wealth distribution• Resources:
• Water • Energy• Minerals• Food
• Environment:• Atmosphere• Land• Sea
• Culture:• Excessive materialism• Disaffection – lack of purpose – lack of satisfaction• Move away from science and technology
Population Growth
2000: 6 billion
2050: 9 billion
Population Growth - Cities
2000: 3 billion
2030: 5 billion
Population Growth – Mega-Cities
2000: 14
2030: 22
Wealth Distribution
Energy - inequality
India Europe USA
Per capita energy use
Energy – oil dependence
6
Current energy trends are patently unsustainable – socially, environmentally, economically IEA
Saudi Arabias needed by 2030 to offset demand growth and production decline IEA
Mineral Resources
Providing today’s developed country level of services for copper worldwide (as well as for zinc and, perhaps, platinum) would appear to require conversion of essentially all of the ore in the lithosphere to stock-in-use plus near-complete recycling of the metals from that point forward.
R.B.Gordon, M. Bertram and T.E. GraedelYale University
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America23rd Jan 2006
Eco Footprints
USA
Malawi
UK
Brazil
China
India
Resources
The Environment – Air Pollution
premature deaths a year World Health Organisation
2 million
air pollution related deaths a year in China World Bank
170,000
The Environment – Climate Change
Pre-industrial: 280ppm
Now: 368ppm
2100: 540 – 970ppm
1.4oC – 5.8oC
Space Tourism and Sustainable Development
may seem incompatible but…links on several levels:
• operational
• cultural
• economic
• resources
• science
• survival
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Operations
Design of ground based facilities:
• energy
• resource use
• sustainable design and operation
• Design of vehicles:
• emissions (need holistic analysis)
• cradle to cradle “C2C” design
• Carbon offsets:
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Operations
FAILURE TO BUILD SUSTAINABILITY INTO ANY BUSINESS IS NOW A MAJOR BUSINESS RISK:
• Market perception risk
• Regulatory risk
• Social pressure risk (NGOs/public opinion)
BE CONSISTENT:
Failure to be consistent is a business risk
Space Tourism and Sustainability – Operations
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture
POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF SPACE TOURISM ON CULTURE:
• environmental consciousness
• inspiration
• resurgence of science and engineering
• the frontier culture
• sense of purpose
• optimism
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture
Did this photo kick-start the mass environmental movement?
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture
Before I flew, I was already aware of how small and vulnerable our planet is; but only when I saw it from space, in all its ineffable beauty and fragility, did I realize that humankind's most urgent task is to cherish and preserve it for future generations.
Sigmund Jaehn, first German Cosmonaut
Nothing could have prepared me for the beauty of the view. It was breathtaking – watching the Earth from above without seeing borders, wars and divisions and realising how fragile the planet is. Every world leader should make the trip. They’d start to see things differently.
Anousheh Ansari, private space explorer
Perhaps the core message is that evolution and exploration are inseparable, that the curious intellect and the wondering spirit are the evolutionary process from inside. They are the hallmarks of humanity and the true propellants of spaceflight.
Wyn Wachorst
Man must explore and this is exploration at its greatest.Dave Scott, Apollo 15
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Economics
A NEW INDUSTRY:
What this country needs is a really good $500 billion technology - something to reignite popular enthusiasm and the economy.
R Samuelson, Washington Post
Space tourism revenue forecasts:
$100 billion/year by 2030
$1 trillion/year by 2060
Patrick Collins
Space tourism facts:
$1 billion committed investment in spaceports - 2006
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Resources
3554 Amun, a mile wide lump of iron, nickel, cobalt, platinum, and other metals that has an orbit closely resembling that of the Earth’s……….3554 Amun contains thirty times as much metal as has ever been mined by human beings in the history of Earth. It’s value, at current prices and if mined slowly to keep commodity prices level, is estimated to be 20 trillion dollars.
John S. Lewis
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Energy
Dispatchable Generation Capacity (GW)
2006 2100
USA 1,076 1,754
World 4,000 17,543
Is SPS part of the solution?
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Energy
Lunar helium–3 for fusion power
Estimated value:
$140 million/100 kgBut one assumption that I know will be justified is that the Moon, the near-Earth asteroids, and the rest of the solar system contain the resources that will take mankind to the next level of civilization and prosperity. Mike Griffin, former NASA Administrator
Low cost access to space = more “bang for the buck” in:
• Earth observation
• Space environment
• Astronomy
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Science
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival
“20 ways the world could end” include:
Pandemic
Nuclear war
Gamma ray burst
Asteroid impact
Mega tsunami
Super volcanoes
Catastrophic climate change etc etc
If we were up there among the planets, if there were self-sufficient human communities on many worlds, our species would be insulated from catastrophe.
Carl Sagan
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival
The long-term survival of the human race is at risk as long as it is confined to a single planet……Sooner or later, disasters such as an asteroid collision or nuclear war could wipe us all out. But once we spread out into space and establish independent colonies, our future should be safe.
Stephen Hawking
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival
The real space race is between spaceflight and extinction
J. Richard Gott
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Conclusions
Space Tourism is coming soon
Sustainable Development reflects real problems
Space Tourism is linked to Sustainable Development through:
• operations
• culture
• economics
• resources
• science
• survival
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Conclusions
Space Tourism seen as in opposition to Sustainable Development
Space Tourism needs to mitigate business risks by designing sustainability into operations and systems
Sustainable Development is more than just a “compliance issue” for Space Tourism
Space Tourism can have a material positive effect on sustainability on several levels:
• Cultural
• Economic
• Resources
• Science
• Survival
Space Tourism needs to make these connections
We need Space Tourism (= low cost access to space) sooner rather than later
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Conclusions
