space debris –an overview - ministry of foreign affairs … debris -reentry on january 24, 1978...

Space Debris – An overviewSpace Debris – An overview

Peter MartinezSA Council for Space Affairs

Outline

The space debris issue

Approaches to dealing with the debris issue Scientific & technical aspects International and national regulatory frameworks International and national regulatory frameworks Multilateral & political initiatives to address the issue

What can APRSAF do about the debris issue?

Evolution of space activities

DREAM DISCRETIONARY ESSENTIAL

SCIENCE and EXPLORATION

In the past 50 years, space has underpinned global peace and prosperity.

SustainableDevelopmentSustainable

Development

APPLICATIONS

COMMERCE LEISURELEISURELEISURE

Global UtilitiesGlobal Utilities

Beneficiaries: States Beneficiaries: Citizens

Actors: Few, States Actors: Many, State & Non-State

Engagement: Pluralism Engagement: Mutualism

Space is becoming more crowded, more hazardous Ensuring safe operations more complex.Our generation must act now to preserve the space environment for future generations.

The space debris situationThe space debris situation

Launch Activity 1957 - 2012

Nicholas Johnson, NASA

Before 1957

Crowding of the Earth’s orbital environment

White dots represent catalogued objects (>10 cm in diameter)

1960



1970



1980



1990



2000



2010



The concern

The growing population of space objects in orbit may in time make activities in regions of near-Earth space hazardous and extremely expensive

U.S. now tracks about 22,000 objects in Earth orbit U.S. now tracks about 22,000 objects in Earth orbit ~ 1,000 working satellites ~ 21,000 debris pieces > 10 cm

Orbit OperationalSatellites

TrackableDebris

LEO ~ 450 ~ 10000

MEO ~ 55 ~ 500

GEO ~ 400 ~ 1000

But that’s not all…

Objects smaller than 10 cm are not consistently trackable There may be as many as 500,000 objects of 1-10 cm size Perhaps as many as 10s to 100s of millions < 1 cm

No active collision avoidance is possible for such objects

These objects can cripple or destroy spacecraft and endanger astronauts

Total mass ~ 6300 tons

Sources of debris

Defunct spacecraft

Mission debris

Rocket bodies Rocket bodies

Fragmentation debris Explosions Degradation

Collisions

Deliberate debris creation ASAT tests

Images: ESA

Trackable debris population

ORBITAL DEBRIS GROWTH

Growth of the debris environment

5

6

7

Mas

s in

Orb

it (m

illio

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f kg)

Monthly Mass of Objects in Earth Orbit by Object Type

Total Objects

Spacecraft

Rocket Bodies

Fragmentation Debris

0

1

2

3

4

1956

1958

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1968

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2010

2012

Mas

s in

Orb

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Year

Mission-related Debris

Space Shuttle vulnerabilitiesWindow Replacement

EVA Suit Penetration

Radiator Penetration

RCC Panel Penetration

Tile Penetration

0.5

0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000Debris Diameter in Centimeters

Cabin Penetration

NASA OD Program Office

International Space Station vulnerabilities Passive shielding Most shielded spacecraft ever flown Total shielding mass ≈ 23,400 kg Launch cost ($10k/lb) ≈ $515 million

Collision avoidance manoeuvres 16 manoeuvres since 1999 16 manoeuvres since 1999 5 since 2011

Risk tolerances <24% probability of penetration (10 yr) <5% probability of catastrophic failure (10 yr)

10 June 2012 MMOD hit on ISS Cupola

Small particle impacts on ISS

Two debris shields from an airlock returned to Earth afternearly 9 years in orbit

Analysis at JSC showed 58 craters with diameter > 0.3mm Largest crater had a diameter of 1.8 mm and nearly

penetrated the shield Six craters contained residues of silica, teflon, or both Might be evidence of secondary debris from impacts on the ISS

solar arrays

Courtesy Nicholas Johnson, NASA

GOES 10 Anomaly

On 5 Sept 2011, nearly 2 years after GOES 10 had been decommissioned and placed in a disposal orbit above GEO, its perigee decreased abruptly by 20 km.

Collision with a small object is a possible explanation Collision with a small object is a possible explanation

Cosmos – Iridium collision: 10 Feb 2009Iridium

Cosmos 2251

We do not have in place the capacity and systems to prevent another similar collision!

1500 trackable objects

Spread of debris orbital planes

7 days 30 days

6 Months 1 Year

Destruction of FY-1C: 11 Jan 2007

Direct ascent kinetic destruction of inactive Chinese Feng Yun1C (FY-1C) weather satellite.

The satellite was in a polar orbit, at an altitude of 865 km, and was struck when it passed over the Xichang Space Centre in Sichuan province.in Sichuan province.

2377 trackable fragments created > 10 cm Perhaps ~150,000 too small to track

Instantaneous 23% increase in thetrackable debris population

Similar tests were conducted by the USSR and USA in the 1970s and 1980s

Destruction of FY-1C: 11 Jan 2007

Debris dispersed in range 200 km to 3500 km orbits.

2/3 of all active or inactive satellites in Earth orbit pass through this orbital region, including the ISS

1 Sept 2010

Destruction of USA-193: Feb 2008

The ailing US national security satellite USA 193 was expected to re-enter some time in 2008, with hydrazine fuel in its tanks.

The US government decided to destroy the satellite The US government decided to destroy the satellite shortly prior to re-entry at an altitude of 250km.

The debris fell from orbit within 8 months of the event.

Space debris - reentry

On January 24, 1978 the Soviet military satellite Cosmos 954 crashed in Northwest Canada.

It had a nuclear reactor on board.

On April 27, 2000 a USA Delta II 2nd stage reentered over South Africa. The propellant tank landed 37 km NE of Cape Town.A pressurisation sphere and rocket nozzle were also recovered.

SOME EXAMPLES

Radioactive debris scattered over 800 km area of Canada.

Phobos-Grunt reentry – 15 Jan 2012

Mass: 13,200kg (with fuel)

Natural hazards that can result in space debrisspace debris

Space weather effects

Meteor impacts Approx 100 tons of material enters the Earth’s

atmosphere each day (dust, meteors)

Meteor showers occur when Earth crosses the orbit of a comet

EXAMPLE OF A METEOR STRIKEEXAMPLE OF A METEOR STRIKE

In August 1993 ESA Comsat Olypmpus-1 ($850 M) was lost due toa meteoroid hit in the Perseid Shower Associated with comet Swift-Tuttle

Over 350 meteors per hour at peak

The meteoroid vaporized when it struck the solar array, generating a small cloud of electrically charged gas (plasma) which acted like a wire, allowing electrical charge on the array to move into the spacecraft's attitude control electronics.

OLYMPUS tumbled wildly. By the time operators regained control, the satellite's attitude-control fuel was exhausted, and its useful life was over. By month's end, the satellite was moved to a "graveyard orbit" and shut down.

Approaches to dealing with the debris issuedebris issue

Scientific and Technical AspectsScientific and Technical Aspects

Space debris mitigation measures

Voluntary measures have been adopted by the leading space agencies to reduce introduction and proliferation of debris.

IADC Debris Mitigation Guidelines (adopted by UN) No intentional production of debris Designing to minimise space debris production

during normal operations & fragmentation dueDesigning to minimise space debris productionduring normal operations & fragmentation dueto strikes

Employ launchers that do not pollute the LEO environment

End of service disposal Intentional de-orbiting & breakup for LEO s/c Transfer to graveyard orbit for GEO s/c

(235 km higher) Active passivation of the spacecraft

Draining of all power, fuel and energy sources

IMPLEMENTATION OF SDMGs WILL RETARD BUT NOT STOP OR REVERSE DEBRIS GROWTH

Dealing with meteoroid/space debris risk

NON-TRACKABLEPROBABILISTIC RISK MODELS

“TAKE THE HIT”

TRACKABLEPREDICTABLE EVENTS

“GET OUT OF THE WAY”

MMOD <1 cm

Passive shielding

1 cm < MMOD < 10 cm

Passive shielding

MMOD > 10 cm

Collision avoidance manoeuvre

Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Aims towards a full knowledge of the dynamic near-Earth space

environment

Three main pillars of SSA Space weather Space debris NEOs NEOs

Makes use of a variety of optical and radar techniques

Requires coordinated, multisite networks of sensors On Earth (& in space)

http://globalssasensors.org/

SSA Networks - SSN

Public satellite catalog at http://www.space-track.org

SSA Networks - ISON

SSA – Broadening the SSA base

Currently, almost all SSA is done for military purposes

Emerging recognition of the need for Civil SSA to support safety Sharing of SSA between Military SSA Sharing of SSA between Government and commercial actors

With other governments

With the public

Military SSA

Civil SSA

Shared SSA

Active debris removal (ADR)Active debris removal (ADR)

Projected debris growth

50000

60000

70000E

ffect

ive

Num

ber o

f Obj

ects

(>10

cm

)Non-Mitigation Projection (averages and 1-σ from 100 MC runs)

LEO (200-2000 km alt)

MEO (2000-35,586 km alt)

GEO (35,586-35,986 km alt)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150 2170 2190 2210

Effe

ctiv

e N

umbe

r of O

bjec

ts (>

10 c

m)

Year Courtesy of NASA OD Program Office

The logic of ADR

Biggest current debris problem is in LEO

Future debris most likely to derive from fragmentations of large spacecraft and rocket stages left in orbit

Removing 5-10 large debris objects per year from LEO Removing 5-10 large debris objects per year from LEO would slow down long-term debris growth

Technologies vary depending on the orbital region and size and type of object

Active debris removal ideas

Laser ablation

Magnetic coupling

Sweeping surfaces

Tethers

Tentacles

Basket / Net

Depends on whether target is cooperating or not, size/mass and orbit, ….

Sweeping surfaces

Foam / Aerogel

Thrust

Capture vehicle

Basket / Net

Sail

???

For two hundred years, satellites of all shapes and sizes, from loose nuts and bolts to entire space villages, had been accumulating in Earth orbit. All that came below the extreme elevation of the Tower, at any time, now had to be accounted for, since they created a possible hazard. Three-quarters of this material was abandoned junk, much of it long forgotten. Now it had to be located, and somehow disposed of. Fortunately, the old orbital forts were superbly equipped for this task. Their radars - designed to locate oncoming

ADR is not a new idea!

superbly equipped for this task. Their radars - designed to locate oncoming missiles at extreme ranges with no advance warning - could easily pinpoint the debris of the early Space Age. Then their lasers vaporized the smaller satellites, while the larger ones were nudged into higher and harmless orbits.

The Fountains of ParadiseArthur Clarke. Published by Ballantine in 1978

The challenges of ADR

ADR is unproven Many technical challenges - need to demonstrate technologies Runs risk of creating more debris than it removes

ADR is expensive ADR is expensive Little economic incentive to remove debris Most debris is in LEO, where few commercial entities operate

Challenges include No internationally agreed definition of space debris Developing an international cooperative approach to debris

removal

Legal frameworksLegal frameworks

International legal framework

Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies (the "Outer Space Treaty”) 1967;

Agreement on the Rescue of Astronauts, the Return of Astronauts and the Return of Objects Launched into Outer Space (the "Rescue Agreement”) 1968;1968;

Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects (the "Liability Convention”)1972;

Convention on Registration of Objects Launched into Outer Space (the "Registration Convention”) 1976;

Agreement Governing the Activities of States on the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies (the "Moon Agreement”) 1984.

Domestic legislation

National legislation domesticates international treaty obligations

National register of space objects

Licensing and other regulatory practices allows States to Licensing and other regulatory practices allows States to implement non-binding international norms into national practices

Non-binding does not mean non-legal

Some proposed multilateral voluntary and legal measuresvoluntary and legal measures

UN COPUOS Space Sustainability WG

Working Group on Long-Term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities to produce a report on space sustainability and a set of best-practise guidelines for safe and sustainable space activities

Voluntary – not binding

Four expert groups have been established to develop the draft Four expert groups have been established to develop the draft guidelines Expert Group A: Sustainable space utilization supporting sustainable

development on Earthco-CHAIRS: FILIPE DUARTE SANTOS (PORTUGAL), ENRIQUE PACHECO CABRERA (MEXICO)

Expert Group B: Space Debris, Space Operations and Tools to Support Collaborative Space Situational Awarenessco-CHAIRS: RICHARD BUENNEKE (USA), CLAUDIO PORTELLI (ITALY)

Expert Group C: Space Weatherco-CHAIRS: TAKAHIRO OBARA (JAPAN), IAN MANN (CANADA)

Expert Group D: Regulatory Regimes and Guidance for Actors In the Space ArenaCO-CHAIRS: SERGIO MARCHISIO (ITALY), ANTHONY WICHT (AUSTRALIA)

UN GGE on TCBMs

UN Group of Govt Experts on Transparency and Confidence Building Measures (TCBMs) for Outer Space Activities

UN General Assembly Resolution A/Res/65/68 of 2010

15 Experts selected for geographical balance & knowledge

The GGE is to conduct a study on outer space transparency and confidence-building measure making use of relevant reports of the UN Secretary-General without prejudice to the substantive discussions on the prevention of an

arms race in outer space within the framework of the CD and to submit to the General Assembly at its sixty-eighth session (in 2013) a

report with an annex containing the study of governmental experts

TCBMS are meant to be voluntary and not legally binding

Code of Conduct

Proposed by EU

Principles freedom for all to use outer space for peaceful purposes

preservation of the security and integrity of space objects in orbit preservation of the security and integrity of space objects in orbit

due consideration for the legitimate security and defenceinterests of States

All-encompassing in scope

Focuses on establishing norms of behaviour and proscribing irresponsible behaviours

Not legally-binding, a political commitment

EU lacks a multilateral mandate. Process needs to be “multilateralised”

Conference on Disarmament (CD)

Some States believe that conflict in outer space would have such terrible consequences that they would like to ban the use of weapons in space through a legally binding treaty However, there are definitional problems

CD has discussed Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS) for a number of years(PAROS) for a number of years

However, CD is deadlocked because States cannot agree on its agenda, so there has been no progress on PAROS

In 2008 China and Russia introduced draft Treaty on Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space and of the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects (PPWT)

PPWT has support of many States, but not all, because of definitional issued and verification concerns of the PPWT

How do these initiatives relate to each other?

Political

CoC

TCBMs

Technical

COPUOS LTS

Guidelines

TCBMs

What can APRSAF do to promote space sustainability?

Educate and raise awareness of space sustainability issues in the region

Encourage States in the region to Ratify and implement existing space Treaties Develop domestic legislation and build capacity in space law Adopt internationally accepted best practices (eg COPUOS SDMGs)

The strength of APRSAF is its pragmatic, voluntary, open and flexible approach and also its network in the Asia-Pacific Region

APRSAF could consider placing space sustainability on its agenda Adoption of SDM practices and standards Develop SSA capabilities and info sharing procedures Engagement with commercial sector in the region Share legal and regulatory expertise

space debris –an overview - ministry of foreign affairs … debris -reentry on january 24, 1978...

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