space exploration initiative: getting to the moon by 2015 an · 2018. 1. 23. · space exploration...

26
April 21 st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F. 1 Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative Assuring the Realization of the President’s Goal by 2015 AND US Technology Leadership on the Moon and In Space Klaus P. Heiss The Jamestown Group LLC i.F. A Division of High Frontier

Upload: others

Post on 20-Jan-2021

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

1

Space Exploration Initiative:

Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher

Payback AlternativeAssuring the Realization of the President’s Goal by 2015

AND US Technology Leadership on the Moon and In Space

Klaus P. HeissThe Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

A Division of High Frontier

Page 2: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

2

Background of Author(s)• Amb. Hank Cooper, Former Director of “SDI” Program, Chairman

of High Frontier• High Frontier was/is instrumental on Space Missile Defense and

Uses of Space• Chris Vizas, Telecommunications and Information Technologies,

Co-founder of Orion Satellite Systems in 1980’s etc.• Klaus P. Heiss, Director of High Frontier

– instrumental in the 1971/2 Space Shuttle Decision (see Heppenheimer on the Space Shuttle Decision and Dr. Steven Dick, current NASA Historian)

– First to testify with Wernher von Braun and Frank Borman on STS to Senate and Congress

– Raised $1.3 Billion in early 1980’s on “Green Shuttle” and Commercial Titans (SpaceTran Corp. – FedEx and Prudential Insurance Co)

• Article on Space Shuttle/NASA “Road to Disaster” attached

Page 3: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

3

The Jamestown Group i.F.

• Following/Reviving Historic Principles and “Path to Success” of the American Experience

• A Group of Individuals and Companies dedicated to the Economic Exploration of the Moon and Space

• With Private Property and Free Markets• Precedent in Space: ComSat/IntelSat

Page 4: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

Moon Base ConferencesWeb Sites

• www.HighFrontier.org• www.MoonBase-usa.org• www.JamestownOnTheMoon.org

Page 5: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

5

Moon Base 2015+

Page 6: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

6

Current NASA Approach• “Big Stick with Gonads”: Prescription for Disaster

– Kills Space Shuttle Derivative Technologies: assertions to the contrary are a joke

– “Ketch-up” Launch Vehicle Failure Scenarios (see recent Titan Loss at WTR)

– Technical Design and Development Disasters “build-in”: severe underestimate of costs and risks

– “Re-inventing” Apollo for Billions of Dollars, taking TWICE as long (12 years vs. 6 years) and ending up with LESS (e.g. higher risks, see above)

Page 7: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

7

Current NASA Approach (cont)• No New Technology (MDG’s own words!)• No investments into RDT&E for USES of

the Moon – sciences, applications, exploration (Solid sticks ain’t exploration)

• Launch “solutions” before any ideas as to Mission(s) requirements/activities(?!)

• “Mars” driven LV Decision (CaLV “Heavy”): Earliest Mars Mission 2032 – with PLENTY of time to develop in 2020’s

Page 8: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

8

Needed:• A Concentrated 2010 -2020 Moon Exploration

and Development effort• Invest in Uses and Applications – not in “re-

inventing the wheel” (Apollo) Launch Vehicle efforts

• “Liberate” $3 to $10 Billion in LV development funds and invest these in RDT&E for Lunar Test Beds and Applications

• Define a “Pathbreaking” Science/Astronomy Mission on/for the Moon

Page 9: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

9

The Atlas V Growth “Equal Budget” Alternative

Page 10: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

10

The Atlas V Growth “Equal Budget” Alternative (cont.)

Page 11: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

11

Page 12: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

12

FFP Space Transportation Alternative

• FFP contract on RDT&E and Cost/Launch– Between Jamestown Group and Supplier– Between Jamestown Group and USG/NASA

including ~ 20% Risk and Management premium

– 2006 – 2020+ period• Balance Sheet “Equity” Requirement:

~ $10 Billion• Negative Cash Flow: ~ $3 Billion

Page 13: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

13

Put “Savings” into Applications: A Moon Development Decade

A “Pathbreaker” Mission:

A Cosmic Ray Water Observatory on the Moon 2010-2019

RDT&E of all Critical Moon Applications Technology Prospects

Page 14: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

14

Water reservoir

Cherenkov light detectors

Moon surface

depth =∼10m

side >≈ 10m

Lunar facility for HE gamma rays and HE Cosmic Rays(surface > ∼100m2 modules)

Page 15: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

15

5÷10 m

∼100 m

Direction and ionization measurements

Electromagnetic calorimeter

Hadronic calorimeter

5÷10 m

Lunar facility for HE Gamma Rays and HE Cosmic Rays(several ∼100m2 modules)

Page 16: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

16

Where the Water/Hydrogen is• The permanently dark

regions around the south pole have the radar reflectance properties of ice, rather than the ground-up rock powder characteristic of the rest of the Moon's surface.

• Data taken on orbits outside these south polar regions and at the north pole do not show this ice signature.

Page 17: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

17

Earth Launch Mass vsLunar Mining Mass/Volume

20 Saturn Vs= Mass of Lunar Regolith of 1 Football Field to 1 ft depth

Page 18: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

18

Advanced Lunar Projects and Systems (“ALPS”)

• Pre-deployed Solar and Nuclear Energy Capacities for Start-up 2010+

• “in-situ” Regolith Processing 2010+• “in-situ” Solar Cell Production 2012+• “in-situ” Energy Production 2014+• “in-situ” Wireless Energy Transmission 2014+• “in-situ” Water Production 2012+• Com/Nav infrastructure 2010+• Manned Lunar Landings: 2015+

Page 19: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

19

Private Sector Opportunities:Synergistic Investments

• The “Attila the Hun” Billionaire Cosmic Ray Observatory (~$1 Billion – why not?! – see Keck Observatory)

• A $1 Billion “Off-shore Oil Rig on the Moon” – why not? (funds ALL energy related RDT&E – exclusive of launch costs)

• A Digital Heritage Archive “Alexandria” on the Moon – why not? (Compete between Bill Gates and Google - give them one month to commit)

Page 20: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

20

USG/NASA Role with Industry• NASA/USG:

– Launches any and all payloads for $1.- per launch – 2008 – 2020 (- 2030?);

– Assumes any and all “third party risks”;• Industry/International “Jamestown” Partners:

– “in-situ” Lunar Resources Technologies/Payloads (water, oxygen, hydrogen, Fe, Al, … 3He)

– Energy (Solar/Nuclear) prototype/operational Payloads– Com/Nav Payloads– Data Archive(s)

• Foundations/NSF/International:– Cosmic Ray Water Observatory

Page 21: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

21

Strategic Locations of the Moon

about 40 “Rim Lots” along “Red Horizon Line”

South Pole Region~ 1,270 Lots, hydrogen, water(?)

North Pole Region~ 1,270 Lots, hydrogen(?), water(?)

High Illumination Zones (Crater rims)

Low Illumination Zones (Crater floors)

Lunar Rim Zones~ 6,280 Lots or 3,140 Antipodal Pairs

Page 22: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

22

Energy Potential of Rim ZonesAntipodal Pairs Only

• 3,140 Antipodal Pairs– Each pair ~ 14.6 GWe at 5% Cell Efficiency– ~ 100% Illumination Assurance

• Total Rim Energy Potential~ 50 Tera Watts electric!

• Based on Technology demonstrated in proposed RDT&E Program 2006-2015the “Cosmic Ray Water Observatory”

• RDT&E projects: see Memorandum

Page 23: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

23

Conclusions• NASA should be redirected by Presidential Directive to “conquer the Moon”

by 2015 as outlined in this “Equal Budget/Higher Payback/Lower Risk Alternative

• Define 2010 to 2019 as the “Decade of the Moon”• Continue the CEV – but dump the “Sticks”• Procure HLLVs under FFP contracts (DDT&E and Launches)• Significant Private and International Participation in HLLVs and Lunar

Applications is likely• Implement a “Pathbreaking” Mission: the Cosmic Ray Water Observatory• Thereby MOST the RDT&E Technology Developments needed for the

Economic and Strategic Uses of the Moon are assured• Return Man to the Moon by 2015• Follow “Jamestown” to the Moon and beyond

• The Time to Act is NOW

Page 24: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

24

Conclusions (cont.)

• It’s a Race – not a Sleep-Walk– Russia 2015– China 2017 (and dissimulating as of late)– India 2017 (?!)– Japan on Lunar Solar Energy

• Technology 2015• Deployment of 10GWe Plant 2025

– Liechtenstein: who knows? – by the looks of it before current NASA walking pathways

Page 25: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

25

Conclusions (cont.)• Moon is “Rock of Gibraltar” AND “Hawaii” all in

one• Who develops/controls the Moon controls

– Cis-Lunar Space, – the Communications/ Information Sectors and– the Energy Sectors

• To assure Free Markets Private Sector has to be mobilized NOW in Lunar Enterprise – through/with Non-Aerospace Companies/Entities

Page 26: Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An · 2018. 1. 23. · Space Exploration Initiative: Getting to the Moon by 2015 An Equal Budget / Higher Payback Alternative

April 21st 2006 Property of the Jamestown Group LLC i.F.

26

The Time to Act is NOWQ.E.D.

(Quod Ego Dixit)

Klausewitz