SPACE SAFETY IN 2030

T. SgobbaExecutive Director

International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety (IAASS)

April 9th, 2014

In the human spaceflight community we are accustomed to think about future space programs in terms of affordability and justifiable scientific value. As a matter of fact commercial and first of all military interests in orbital outerspace, and foreign policy may be the prime drivers of political decisions and shape international cooperative initiatives.

To guess what may happen, we must get aware of current challenges and how the world is going to change in the coming 15 years.

Foreword

• Outerspace regions• Airspace & outerspace• Commercial human transportation• Space safety• Military/intelligence started space• Congested-Competitive-Contested• World in 2030 • Space safety goals for 2030

Content

Today, referring to all space activities as exploration activities has become meaningless. Outer space is made of two functional regions: the “space-exploitation” region (ETR) and the “space-exploration” region (ERR). The border between the two regions lays currently at the upper end of the geosynchronous orbits (36,000 km).

Outerspace “regions”

Exploitation

Exploration

(Note: according to dictionary ‘exploitation’ means making productive use, while ‘exploration’ means, traveling over new territory, for adventure, discovery or investigation).

• The main interests in the space-exploitation region, are commercial and military

• The main interests in the space exploration region are scientific

Outerspace “regions”: growing divide

• Important elements of civil aviation infrastructure and services (air traffic control, communication, meteorology) are becoming space-based.

• Vehicles are being developed that will operate in both domains.

Airspace & outerspace: fading divide

• There are common concerns like space weather, sharing of airspace during launch and re-entry operations, protection of the atmospheric and orbital environment (i.e. space debris).

• A large part of space launch and re-entry operations take place through the international airspace under the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) jurisdiction.

Airspace & outerspace: fading divide (cont’d)

Commercial human transportation coming of age

Commercial human transportation coming of age (cont’d)

Aerospaceports: a growing reality

Space safety: what is it?

Spaceports worldwide involved in commercial operations do not operate according to common (international) industrial safety standards. Foreign teams involved in launch preparation may be exposed to unwanted levels of risk.

Space safety: ground operations safety riskSpace safety: ground operations safety risk

Brazil 2003

California 2007

There is no international agency to monitor and control the cumulative risk imparted annually to overflown populations by launch and re-entry operations.

Space safety: launch failuresSpace safety: launch failures

CZ-3B on February 15, 1996CZ-3B on February 15, 1996

• More than 6800 spacecraft have been placed into Earth orbit since Sputnik 1 in 1957. Currently, more than 3200 spacecraft remain in Earth orbit. 2200 of them are orbital debris.

• More than 5400 launch vehicle stages have been placed into Earth orbit since 1957. Currently, more than 1700 launch vehicle stages remain in Earth orbit. Sizes range from <100 kg to 8 tons.

• According to the “Kessler syndrome”, uncontrolled space debris are bound to trigger a self-sustaining collisional cascade, where each collision contributes to an increase in the frequency of future collisions .

Space safety: space debris pollutionSpace safety: space debris pollution

Growth of Launch Vehicle Stages in Earth OrbitGrowth of Spacecraft in Earth Orbit

More than 1700 still on orbitMore than 1700 still on orbit

The first accidental hypervelocity collision between two intact artificial satellites in Earth orbit occurred at 16:56 UTC on February 10, 2009 when Iridium 33 and Kosmos-2251 collided at a speed of 42,120 km/h.

Space safety: on-orbit collision riskSpace safety: on-orbit collision risk

Space safety: re-entry riskSpace safety: re-entry risk

China 2004

China 2004

Guatemala 1998

Saudi Arabia 2001

Australia 2007Australia 2007 Texas 1997

1979

Every year 100 tons of space debris and meteorites enter the atmosphere and fall to ground. There is on average oneone re-entry of a major space system (spacecraft or upper stage) per week.

Space safety: aircraft vulnerable to (small) space debris & Space safety: aircraft vulnerable to (small) space debris & meteoritesmeteorites

A 300 grams debris fragment can be catastrophic for an aircraft in flight.

Space safety: ground & atmospheric pollutionSpace safety: ground & atmospheric pollution

Source Jonas Bendiksen’s book: Satellites -2006

Cosmos 954 - Canada 1978

Mojave - 2013

30 kg of uranium-235 from Cosmos 954 were spread over 124,000 km2. Only 1% of radioactive fuel was recovered in 12 pieces. They emitted radioactivity of up to 1.1 Sieverts/hour. Usually a nuclear emergency is declared at 500 micro-Sieverts/hour).

On July 2, 2013 a Proton-M plunged to ground 2.5 km from Baikonur launch pad spreading 600 tons of highly toxic UDMH and Dinitrogen Tetroxide.

Military/intelligence launched most space systemsMilitary/intelligence launched most space systems

Yang Liwei

Since the beginning of the space era, both the United States and the former Soviet Union developed and implemented programs that were more military in nature than civilian or scientific. Military programs/successors: ICBM/ launchers, USAF Dyna-Soar/Shuttle, USAF Military Orbital Lab & USSR Almaz/ MIR & ISS Space Stations, Corona & spy satellites/earth observation, GPS/GNSS, etc. The first astronauts from US, USSR and China were all military.

• the United States' (U.S.) increasing economic and military dependence on space creates a vulnerability that is an attractive target for our foreign adversaries. If adversaries are able to employ offensive counterspace operations--operations which are intended to deceive, disrupt, deny, degrade, or destroy U.S. space systems--the force multiplication effect they provide would be reduced or eliminated. This could lead to more expensive victories or even to defeat.

• Current trends such as technology proliferation, accessibility to space, globalization of space programs and industries, commercialization of space systems and services, and foreign knowledge about U.S. space systems increases the likelihood that the U.S. will experience a "Space Pearl Harbor."

Congested-competitive-contested

for more than two decades a debate have been raging between US on one side and Russia and China on the other side on banning space weapons. The initial concern was an altered nuclear balance of forces between the superpowers. The debate is better known as PAROS (Prevention of Arms Race in Outer Space), from the relevant draft treaty proposed jointly by Russia and China. It started following the US President R. Reagan decision to launch in 1985 the Missile Defence Program (a.k.a. Star Wars), which encountered major technological difficulties and was later restarted in a diminutive form (a.k.a. Son of Star Wars) by US President G. W. Bush after September 11 2001

(Report of the Commission to Assess United States National Security, Space Management and Organization – 2001)

• For more than two decades a debate have been raging between US on one side and Russia and China on the other side on banning space-based weapons (i.e anti-ballistic missiles that also work as anti-satellites). The initial concern being an altered nuclear balance of forces between superpowers. The debate is better known as PAROS (Prevention of Arms Race in Outer Space).

• An International Code of Conduct for Space Operations is in preparation (initially proposed by EU) that it is meant to mediate the above concerns, while addressing also some safety issues (i.e. space traffic management, space debris issues).

• Space is increasingly a contested domain where U.S. dominance is no longer assured given the growing number of actors in space and kinetic and non-kinetic attack threats, including ASAT weapons, EMP, and jamming.

Congested-competitive-contested (cont’d)

for more than two decades a debate have been raging between US on one side and Russia and China on the other side on banning space weapons. The initial concern was an altered nuclear balance of forces between the superpowers. The debate is better known as PAROS (Prevention of Arms Race in Outer Space), from the relevant draft treaty proposed jointly by Russia and China. It started following the US President R. Reagan decision to launch in 1985 the Missile Defence Program (a.k.a. Star Wars), which encountered major technological difficulties and was later restarted in a diminutive form (a.k.a. Son of Star Wars) by US President G. W. Bush after September 11 2001

In recent years China has performed 4 ASAT in 2007, 2010, and two in 2013. The one in 2007 created 3000 new space debris, and the last one that tested only the launcher has the capability to reach MEO and GEO orbits.

The world in 2030

In just 15 years from now:

•“The world of 2030 will be radically transformed from our world today. By 2030, no country—whether the US, China, or any other large country—will be a hegemonic power. The empowerment of individuals and diffusion of power among states and from states to informal networks will have a dramatic impact, largely reversing the historic rise of the West since 1750”

•“The current, largely Western dominance of global structures such as the UN Security Council, World Bank, and IMF probably will have been transformed by 2030 to be more in line with the changing hierarchy of new economic players. Many second-tier emerging powers will be making their mark - at least as emerging regional leaders.’’

(US Government - Office of the Director of the National Intelligence – National Intelligence Council. Global Trends 2030)

The world in 2030

In just 15 years from now:

•Population - The world population will increase of about 1 billion. But the populations of Europe and Japan will decline while China and India will continue to grow. There will be 1.5 billion Chinese in 2030.

•GDP - In 2030, the combined GDP of China and India will be larger than the combined GDP of USA, Canada, Japan, Germany, UK, France and Italy together. The GDP of Brazil will surpass Japan.

•Asia raising - Asia will be close to become the center of gravity of the world. Not only China and India, but including Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia.

•Africa economy - Africa will be the continent of most dynamic emerging economies.

(For a Positive Economy – Attali & others - Fayard, Paris, 2013)

• Taking into account the interest of future generations is becoming a universally accepted ethical principle.

• Altruism towards future generations is seen as a motor more powerful than individualism in moving the market economy.

(Adapted from : For a Positive Economy – Attali & others - Fayard, Paris, 2013)

The world in 2030: The Interest of Future Generations

Space safety in 2030 Space safety in 2030

Will governments and institutions be able to adapt fast enough to harness change instead of being overwhelmed by it? Will the loss of hegemonic roles help forging space governance and launch new international space explorations programs? Most probably yes but at certain conditions.

By 2030 concerns about a ‘Pearl Harbor’ in space should have vanished thanks to a number of corrective actions (being already implemented), like so-called ‘disaggregation’, flying military payloads on multiple commercial jamming resistant satellites, using high altitude platforms, alternatives to GPS, etc.

By 2030 space global governance will be a solid reality if the spacefaring countries will pursue the vision NOW of establishing an international regulatory framework for civil/commercial space well separated from military code of conducts and security treaties. (Civil aviation is an inspiring model under many respect, starting with traffic management and environment protection)

By 2030 international space exploration will be advancing if United States, China and Russia will have effectively and organizationally separated by 2020 space military programs from civil programs. In particular:

- US by greatly limiting the scope/impact of ITAR (International Traffic in Arms Regulations) to actual risks for national security, - China by relocating all space exploration programs well outside the PLA (People’s Liberation Army)

Space safety goals for 2030 : IAASS ManifestoSpace safety goals for 2030 : IAASS Manifesto