space weather services for aviation – an emerging capability · space weather services for...
TRANSCRIPT
Presented by Bob RutledgeNOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Space Weather Services for Aviation –An Emerging Capability
GANIS2 Meteorology Session
Outline
Space Weather Primer/Sequence of Events The Need Space Weather Impacts on Aviation Services Within ICAO Radiation Communications Satellite-based Positioning
Evolution of Services and Needs
Image Credit – NASA AIA Consortium
Conditions are Favorable for Activity
EventOccurs
Coronal Observations
In situ Solar Wind Observations
Geomagnetic Storm Occurs
Space Weather Impacts on Aviation
Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3 HF Communications (propagation, absorption) HF COM Communications via satellite (propagation, absorption) SATCOM GNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSS Radiation at flight levels (increased exposure) RADIATION
Event-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effects
Applicability in November 2018
Service model discussion still maturing
Image Credit – NASA AIA Consortium
Services Within ICAO – Example Products
Services Within ICAO - Timeline
Image Credit – NASA AIA Consortium
Radiation Information – Understanding Exposure
Radiation Information – Understanding ExposureCaffeine
GNSS and Communications GNSS
Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available
Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10’s of minutes)
Longer range forecasts remain challenging, both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm
Communications
High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically
Limited skill in satellite communications, both in nowcast and forecast phases
Longer range forecasts remain challenging, both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well
Ionospheric Service Challenges – An Example
Image: Anthea Coster/John Foster/MIT
Adding Value… Radiation In September, 2017 - “The solar storm we saw on September 10th was very strong… In a
storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domestically” Operations were affected, but should they have been? For a flight over the pole, timed to
see all of the event, exposure may have been double the daily background
GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly, but
knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning
Communications For the same September period, ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for
aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation
Evolution of Services and Needs Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer, exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation, data assimilation, and operational decision making
GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges, but some will remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue
Communications Application of HF is changing. HF datalink use still increasing… Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving
Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However, no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future Given the chaotic, eruptive nature of the phenomena, space weather may never be like weather, but
we can try…
Thank You
Effect of intense December 2006 solar radio bursts on GPS receivers
Cerruti, A. P., P. M. Kintner Jr., D. E. Gary, A. J. Mannucci, R. F. Meyer, P. Doherty, and A. J. Coster (2008), Effect of intense December 2006 solar radio bursts on GPS receivers, Space Weather, 6, S10D07, doi:10.1029/2007SW000375.
December 2006 – 1415MHz Radio Bursts
December 2006 – 1415MHz Radio Bursts
1,000,000+ SFU ~440,000 SFU (1GHz)
~4,000 SFU
~150,000 SFU (1.6 GHz)
Cerruti et al. (2008)