spain 1 exchange of information between member states to improve population statistics. a proposal...
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Exchange of Information between Member States to improve population Statistics.
A Proposal from INE-Spain
Antonio ARGÜESOSocio-Demographic Statistics
DirectorINE-Spain
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1. Migration into Spain during the last 20 years
2. The Population Register as a source for migration statistics: lights and shadows
3. Migration Statistics today
Summary:
5. Some conclusions and possible next steps
4. Exchange of data between countries. Why? 4.1 Flows4.2 Stocks
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1. Migration into Spain during the last 20 years
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
45000000
50000000
Population of Spain 2002-2013
Spaniards Foreigners
4.2 %
11.6 % 10.9 %
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Stocks of foreign population 2001-2013: some selected countriesSource: Population Register
1. Migration into Spain during the last 20 years
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By Law: All persons living in a municipality of Spain have the right and obbligation to be registered in the municipal register (without any legal or administrative restriction)
Since May 1996 municipal registers are integrated (control of duplicates, births, deaths, migrations at national level by INE).
(An example: a recent survey on homeless people states that 90% of them are registered, only 2,700 are not)
Spanish citizens are (were?) “under control” in the Database but foreign population is (were?) more difficult to count:
2. The Population Register as a source for migration statistics: lights and shadows
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Because there is a legal (complex and evolving) process for deregistering people
Non European Union and non permanent residents (including illegal)
The Citizens have to renew their registration every two years.
Otherwise the registration expires
European Union’s and permanent residents :
The Municipality has to check their residence every FIVE years.
Otherwise the registration expires
The population figures obtained DIRECTLY from the register do not reflect actual migration flows but the administrative process.
Migration Statistics (and Population Figures) have to be calculated after some statistical treatment
2. The Population Register as a source for migration statistics: lights and shadows
So, how are we able to measure emigration?
…What is it????
Spaniards:
No expiration procedure for registrations
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Example: Expiration of registrations and actual emigration estimated for non permanent residents. Raw data (green line) observed in february 2013
Step 1: A date of actual emigration is assigned (blue)
(Registration expires in month m but actual emigration is assigned a date between m and m-24)
Step 2: Data are expanded (orange) considering the (known and regular) delay in the deregistration process
(we can estimate the number of deregistrations occured in 2012 that will be eventually received during 2013)
3. Migration Statistics today
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3. Migration Statistics today
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….But (treated or raw) what we are measuring is what the population register shows about migration. The information is…
It was OK in a context of population growth (spaniards were not leaving)
But they seem to be now…
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013630000
640000
650000
660000
670000
680000
690000
Native Spaniards registered as living abroad (in consular Offices) 2009-2013
… very good non EU citizens
… not so bad for EU citizens (or non-EU permanent residents)
… almost nothing for Spaniards leaving the country (unless they declare so)
26 % increase in out-flow of (native) Spaniards in 1st semester 2013
Mirror Statistics help? Not much…
SPAINMirror Statistics: We are providing more information than other Member States. When information from other countries is available, data are rather consistent
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Using “mirror” data?: Not available in many casesGood for checking
But has Pro’s and con’sThe risk of overestimating emigration
(notably in short term migrations within Europe)
4. Exchange of data. Why?
Are there other evidences?
4.1 Flows
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According to another source(NINo allocations in UK)It seems that the flow of Spaniards to UK is growing (?)
Are these people going to UK to live or only to “spend the summer”?
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(Immigration to Germany rises in the first Half of 2013 by 11%)Nov 21st 2013:According to DESTATIS
Entries from Spain increase by 39%
No info. of out-flows
Are they “real” migrants?
How many are coming back to Spain?
How many of them will stay there one year later?
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October 22st 2013:Another Source: ARZ (Stock of foreign population). DESTATIS
Spaniards registered at the end of 2012 increase by 9.1%
migratory balance: 10,776
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Individual Data sharing between Member States. What would we do with these PERSONAL data (name, address, IDs)?
Spanish Law allows interchange for statistical purposes with other NSIs.Data Protection Agency has been consulted.
The public opinion in Spain is aware of these inconsistencies. Spanish society (European society) is asking us to exchange data
4. Exchange of data. Why? 4.1 Flows
ONLY FOR STATISTICAL PURPOSES (no deregistrations foreseen)!!!!
- Are those people getting a NINo (UK) or registered in ARZ (Germany) still registered in Spain?
- Could we interview them (sampling?) A pilot survey? web interview? CATI interview? (to know their plans, their reasons for leaving...)
- Could we draw any information about flows back to Spain and migratory balance?
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4. Exchange of data. Why? 4.2 Stocks
Population figures as of January 1st 2013
Registered as of January 1st 2013
% counted/ registered
Total EU 2,060,646 2,352,978 88%
Romania 769,608 868,635 89%
United Kingdom 316,362 383,093 83%
Italy 181,046 192,147 94%
Germany 153,432 181,32 85%
Bulgaria 147,310 168,631 87%
Portugal 116,431 128,795 90%
France 101,466 117,497 86%
Poland 72,882 78,952 92%
Netherlands 46,969 53,868 87%
Sweden 20,471 25,425 81%
Foreign Population in SpainEU Citizens
EU citizens living in Spain. How many?
Raw data (registered): 2,35 MillionCounted (estimated): 2,06 Million
How many of these 2,35 (or 2,06) are counted also in another country?
No deregistrations (unless agreed upon) but registers not counted!!
It is possible for us: population figures are (calculated from) but not exactly the number of Registered people
Could we connect our databases?(to detect duplicates, deaths…)
(there are almost 3,000 foreign centenarians)
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5. Some conclusions (and next steps)
- Migration Statistics based on a population register can be improved using models . It is better than simply counting actual movements
- Mirror statistics can play a (small?) role in the near future. But individual data interchange for statistical purposes is possible and much better.
- We are offering billateral interchange of information to any country interested
Contact: [email protected]
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THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION