spain’s emission projections (sep) project

ESCUELA TÉCNICA SUPERIORDE INGENIEROSINDUSTRIALES

UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICADE MADRID

DEPARTAMENTO DE INGENIERIA QUÍMICA INDUSTRIAL Y DEL MEDIO AMBIENTE

SPAIN’S EMISSION PROJECTIONS(SEP) PROJECT

WORK UNDER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE SPAIN’S ENVIRONMENT MINISTRY AND THE TECHNICAL

UNIVERSITY OF MADRID

Thessaloniki, 30th October 2006

MINISTERIO DE MEDIO AMBIENTE. DIRECCIÓN GENERAL DE CALIDAD Y

EVALUACIÓN AMBIENTAL

Dr. Julio [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

30th October 2006. 2TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.

1.1. Aim of the project

1.2. Activities

1.3 Pollutants

1.4. Projection methodology

1.5. EmiPro

1.6. Update system

2.1. Ex-post evaluation

2.2. RAINS comparison

2.3. National Emission Ceilings achievement

3. CONCLUSIONS

OUTLINE

1 - METHODOLOGY

2 - RESULTS


• To develop a consistent methodology to evaluate Spain’s Emission Projections• To obtain the emission projections for the period 2001 – 2020

Objectives

Critical aspects

- A tool for decision making process

- Projection Vs. Prediction

- Activity projection vs. sectoral prospective

- Integration of sectoral studies and activity projections

- Full consistency with the National Atmospheric Emission Inventory

(NEI)

- Basis for national AQ modelling

1.1.- The aim of the project


Every activity under NEI using SNAP-97 nomenclature

1.2.- Activities

SNAP Description Number of SL3

1 Combustion in energy and transformation industries 17

2 Non-industrial combustion plants 6

3 Combustion in manufacturing industry 30

4 Production processes 62

5Extraction and distribution of fossil fuels and geothermal energy

14

6 Solvent and other product use 42

7 Road transport 15

8 Other mobile sources and machinery 10

9 Waste treatment and disposal 14

10 Agriculture 37

11 Other sources and sinks 44

TOTAL 291


Geneva Convention

1.3.- Pollutants

Sulphur oxides (SO2+SO3), measured as mass of SO2

Nitrogen oxides (NO+NO2), measured as mass of NO2

Ammonia (NH3)

Volatile organic compounds (except methane) (NMVOC)

Carbon monoxide (CO)

Particulate Matter (as TSP, PM10 and PM2,5)

Heavy metals: lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd) and mercury (Hg)

Kyoto Protocol

Carbon dioxide (CO2)

Methane (CH4)

Nitrous oxide (N2O)

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)

As mass of each individual compound

In CO2 equivalent weighted according to

its global warming potential


1.4.- Methodology

- The projections are developed under EEA and US EPA framework

- The usual projection level is national (SNAP activity) and in annual

basis.

- Projections are specifically calculated for each pollutant included in

the activities considered.

- Projections are associated to scenarios:

Starting considerations:

- Technological

- Socioeconomic

- Statistical

- Legislative

Hypothesis:

- Activity rates

- Emission factors

- Emission trends

= SCENARIO

- Macroeconomic variables are exogenous to the model


Scenarios

CO

2 e

qu

iva

len

t

Year1990 20102000

Kyoto

NO

X,

SO

2, C

OV

NM

, N

H3

Year1990 20102000

NEC

• Business as usual: statistical methods are used to provide future emissions, activity rates and/or emission factors. The only information used are past data without taking into account possible effect of measures. It is a “reference” scenario and it has physical constrains. Equivalent to “without measures”.

• Base: it includes every plan, policy or measure officially adopted that has any effect in atmospheric emissions. Equivalent to “with measures”.

• Target: it incorporates additional measures aimed at achieving the targets included in both National Emissions Ceilings Directive and Kyoto Protocol. Equivalent to “with additional measures”.


SCENARIOS

Base

BAU

SCENARIOS

Base

BAU

Emission data (Inventory)

Socioeconomic data

Sectoral studies

Legislation

Technological aspects

Basic information

- Activity Rate trend (A)

- Emission factor trend (EF)

- Emission trend (E)

- Control Factor (CF) and Growth Factor (G)

First Hypotheses

Method for calculation

n

kkjjaiji CFtEFAE

1,,,

n

kkjjaiaji CFgEGE

1,,,

Evaluated

emissions

Belowthreshold?Results

Definition of a T

arget scenario

YES NOCONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

Kyoto Protocol

NEC

SCENARIO

Target

SCENARIO

Target

Target Hypotheses

- Activity Rate (A)

- Emission factor (EF)

- Emission (E)

- Control & Growth Factors (CF & GF)


Integration criteria

- Development of ‘macroscenarios’ for coherence assurance

Projection estimation

AR = activity rateConsistency

criteria

Relationships, implications

Group of related activities

SNAP 1

SNAP 2

SNAP ...

AR 1AR 2

Hypothesis homogenization

Proj 1

Proj 2

Proj ...

Macroscenario

Σ Proj

- Once the relationship mapping has been clearly identified, it is only a

matter of introducing consistency conditions into the hypothesis made

under each scenario for a particular activity rate


1.5.- EmiPro

- EmiPro (Emission Projections) is a software tool specifically developed

to handle all the data and procedures involved in the SEP project.

Last non-Beta version,currently v4.0

- Start screen -


- Generally, projections are made on national basis

But, the setting of thresholds derived from NEC Directive’s commitments

must be done taking into account only a subset of the total national

emissions

Solution:

- Implementation of a parallel database system inside EmiPro

corresponding to the two different geographic and pollutant scopes.

None of them stores NUTS-3 level information:

Design issues


NEC-Base:

- Only NMVOC, NH3, NOX and SO2

- SNAP 11 (nature) emissions are excluded

- NMVOC from SNAP 10 (agriculture) are excluded

- Emissions under the EMEP domain (Canary Islands are not included)

- Domestic and international cruise traffic (h > 1000 m) emissions are excluded

- National and international airport traffic (LTO cycles<1000m) are included

Results

CORINAIR DB2004

General:

- National scope

- All SEP’s project pollutants

NEC-BaseGeneral

SEP (1990-2000)

NECGeneral

EmiPro (1990-2020)

Activity-rate historical datasets analysis and

geographical disaggregation criteria

- Parallel projection scheme and information stored in each database


Storage and recovery of past (history) emissions

Main functionalities


Generation of projections from history data and algorithm factors



Storage and recovery of projected emissions



Reports generation



Quality Assurance/Quality Check


Macroscenariocalculation report:

projections included

Emission projection atmacroscenario level

Time frameselecction

Pollutantselection

Switchbetween

graphical -tabular views

Macroscenariocalculation report:

projections included

Emission projection atmacroscenario level

Time frameselecction

Pollutantselection

Switchbetween

graphical -tabular views


1.6.- Updating system

Dic

Nov

Oct

Sep

Ago

Jul

Jun

May

Abr

Mar

Feb

Ene

Dic

Nov

Oct

Sep

Ago

Jul

Jun

May

Abr

Mar

Feb

Ene

Dic

Nov

Oct

Sep

Ago

Jul

Jun

May

Abr

Mar

Feb

Ene

Dic

Nov

Oct

Sep

Ago

Jul

Jun

May

Abr

Mar

Feb

Ene

Updated NEI (series 1990-year i-2)

year i

year i+1

Projections 2001-2020 (NEI series 1990-year i-3)

Publication of new methodology (series 1990-year i-2)

Projection update (NEI series 1990-year i-2)

Inclusion of new policies and measures

Inclusion of new policies and measures

Updated NEI (series 1990-year i-1)

9-month delay


Conclusions from updating system

Other updates

- It is not possible to obtain consistent emission projections until 9

months after NEI publication

- New policies and measures are included into emission projections as

they appear vs. NEI annual updates

- Base year intended to be changed every 5 years

- Temporal scope is extended, if necessary, when the base year is

updated

- Historical data up to new base year are included

- Previous projected series are kept


1.1. Aim of the project

1.2. Activities

1.3 Pollutants

1.4. Projection methodology

1.5. EmiPro

1.6. Update system

2.1. Ex-post evaluation

2.2. RAINS comparison

2.3. National Emission Ceilings achievement

3. CONCLUSIONS

OUTLINE

1 - METHODOLOGY

2 - RESULTS


2.1.- Ex-post evaluation

- Each 2 years:

- Projection values are checked against official NEI estimates

- Comparison at group and national level

- Deviation analysis:

- due to trend estimation (non-updated NEI) (a)

- due to methodological issues (updated NEI) (b)

350.000

360.000

370.000

380.000

390.000

400.000

2000 2001 2002

Año

Em

isio

nes

NH 3 (

t)

Inventario Tendencial

Base Objetivo

+1,7 %+2,2 %

+0,6 %

-4,8 %

-1,6 %

+0,9 %

330.000

340.000

350.000

360.000

370.000

380.000

390.000

400.000

410.000

2000 2001 2002

Año

Em

isio

nes

CO 2

eq

uiv

alen

te (

kt)

Inventario Tendencial

Base Objetivo

+0,2 %-1,0 %

-5,9 %

-9,5 %

-6,2 %

-3,4 %

Ex-post evaluation for NH3 emissions Ex-post evaluation for GHG emissions(a)


Ex-post evaluation for total VOC emissions*

(b)

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

1.400.000

1.600.000

1.800.000

2.000.000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Año

t C

OV

NM

Base

NEI (1990-2003)

NEI (1990-2004)

* Provisional data


2.2.- RAINS comparison

- Development of a 4-level hierarchy nomenclature (sub-SNAP =

SEP)

- Mapping RAINS-SEP (biunivocal correspondence)- Comparisons:

- Activity rate- Technology penetration and emission factors- NEC emissions

01/01/01/01

PP_EX_OTH-BC1-NOC

SNAP

Fuel = FTechnology =TReduction measure =M

SEP

Power Plant (SNAP)Existing (T)Other boiler type (T)Brown Coal (F)No Control Measure (M)


2.3.- NEC accomplishment

NH3 Emissions*

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

400.000

450.000

500.000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Año

t N

H 3

Base

NEI (1990-2003)

NEC_NAT_CLE4REV (Aug06)

NEI (1990-2004)

* Provisional data


VOC Emissions*

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

1.400.000

1.600.000

1.800.000

2.000.000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Año

t C

OV

NM

Base

NEI (1990-2003)

NEI (1990-2004)

* Provisional data


NOx Emissions*

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

1.400.000

1.600.000

1.800.000

2.000.000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Año

t N

OX

Base

NEI (1990-2003)

"NEC_NAT_CLE4REV (Aug06)

NEI (1990-2004)

* Provisional data


SOx Emissions*

0

250.000

500.000

750.000

1.000.000

1.250.000

1.500.000

1.750.000

2.000.000

2.250.000

2.500.000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Año

t S

O2

Base

NEI (1990-2003)

"NEC_NAT_CLE4REV (Aug06)

NEI (1990-2004)

* Provisional data


Policies and measures included in base scenario

SNAP Groups Policy and measure

1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 & 9

Strategy for saving energy and improving efficiency (E4)

1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8 & 9

Action plan for the implementation of E4 in the period 2005-2007

1, 2, 3, 4, 7 & 9 Plan for the electricity and gas sectors

1, 2, 3, 7 & 8 Plan for the increase of renewable energies

1 Directive 2001/80/EC for Large Combustion Plants

1 BREF on Large Combustion Plant

1, 4 BREF on Refineries

2, 6 National plan for house accessibility

1, 2, 3, 7 & 8Directive related to the quality of petrol and diesel fuels

2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10 & 11

Population projections for 2002-2020

3, 4 BREF on Iron and Steel production

3 BREF on Ferrous Metal processing

3, 4 BREF on Non-Ferrous Metal processes

3, 4 BREF on Cement and Lime production

3 BREF on Glass manufacture

3 BREF on Glass manufacture

4 BAT on ammonia manufacture


SNAP Policy and measure

4 BAT on ammonium nitrate manufacture

4 BREF on Chlor-Alkali manufacture

4 BREF on Large Volume Organic Chemicals

4 BREF on Pulp and Paper manufacture

4, 6, 7, 8 Strategic Plan for Transport Infrastructures

4, 5 Directive on the control of VOC emissions.

4, 8 OSPAR Convention

4 BREF on Food, Drink and Milk processes

6 Directive on the limitation of emissions of VOC due to the use of organic solvents

6 BREF on Textile processing

6Reduction of the emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 in the European Union

7 Auto Oil II programme

7 Agreements with car manufacturers

8 Directive against the emission of pollutants from engines in non-road mobile machinery

9 & 10 Waste plans

9 Directive on packaging and packaging waste

10 & 11 Nitrogen balance in Spanish agriculture

9, 10 & 11 Spanish Forestry Plan

10 & 11 Reform of the CAP. Medium-Term prospects for agricultural markets and income in the EU


Drivers’ comparison

NEC (1999) SEP (2006) IIASA (2006)

2010 1990 % 2010 1990 % 2010 1990 %

Pop. (Mp) 40,57 38,97 4,1 45,50 38,85 17,1 45,50 38,85 17,1

GDP (b€) 631,20 377,96 67,0 695,57 406,25 71,2 - - -

Energy (PJ) 5215,00 3621,53 44,0 6674,58 N.A. - 6674,58 3618,12 84,5

Cattle (Mh) 6,00 5,13 17,0 5,67 5,06 12,0 6,14 5,08 20,9

Pigs (Mh) 20,30 15,98 27,0 26,33 16,94 55,4 26,94 16,99 58,6

Poultry (Mh) 83,10 44,92 85,0 181,53 166,26 9,2 170,03 157,19 8,2

F. use (kt N) 1052,00 1062,63 -1,0 1090,26 1074,17 1,5 1049,00 1074,17 -2,3

- Most of the drivers were

underestimated

- SEP and IIASA

estimates show a

reasonable agreement

Current situation 2005* NEC %

Population (Mp) 44,11 40,57 +8,7%

GDP (billion €) 641,19 631,20 +1,6%

Energy (PJ) 6119,43 5215,00 +17,3%

Cattle (Mheads) 6,65** 6,00 +10,9%

Pigs (Mheads) 24,89** 20,30 +22,6%

Poultry (Mheads) 178,35** 83,10 +114,6%

Fertiliser use (kt N) 1052,29** 1052,00 +0,0%* Total National

** Data from 2004


2010 comparison SEP-NEC RAINS-NEC

Population (Mp) +12.15% +12.15%

GDP (billion €) +10.20% -

Energy (PJ) +27.99% +27.99%

Cattle (Mheads) -5.53% +2.34%

Pigs (Mheads) +29.70% +32.72%

Poultry (Mheads) +118.45% +104.61%

Fertiliser use (kt N) +3.64% -0.29%

Emissions comparison for 2010 with NEC

SEP-NEC RAINS-NEC

NH3 2.18% 0.48%

NMVOC 30.09% -

NOx 22.13% 35.43%

SO2 -52.24% -32.63%


3.- Conclusions

- Spain has a consistent methodology to evaluate emission projections

- A tailored software tool (EmiPro) supports data management, quality

checks and report generation

- A specific nomenclature (SEP) has been developed with a SEP-

RAINS mapping (open for comments)

- Spain’s projections have been compared against RAINS/GAINS

results using this mapping

- SEP and RAINS emission trends are very similar

- Difficulties in the achievement of the ceilings for 2010 could be partly

explained by unrealistic estimation of drivers trends when negotiating

Spain’s emission ceilings

spain’s emission projections (sep) project

Documents

activity projections

tfeip workshop

national snap activity

process projection

projection methodology1

national aq modelling1

mass of so2 nitrogen

spains environment ministry