spark infrastructure group asx code: ski price: $2.01 12 mth … · spark infrastructure group asx...

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Business Summary Spark Infrastructure (SKI) is an infrastructure fund with an objective to invest in regulated electricity distribution businesses in Victoria and South Australia. Spark Infrastructure RE Limited is the Responsible Entity. SKI has two segments namely Victoria Power Networks and SA Power Networks. Victoria Power Networks: SKI has the 49% interest in two electricity distribution businesses in Victoria (i.e. CitiPower and Powercor). (i) CitiPower owns and operates the distribution network that supplies electricity to customers in Melbourne's CBD and inner suburbs. In addition to providing electricity to many of the government and private sector offices, CitiPower also supplies energy to many of the state's landmarks including Federation Square, the Melbourne Cricket Ground, The Victorian Arts Centre, Victoria and Rod Laver Arena. (ii) Powercor Australia (Powercor) is the distributor of electricity in Victoria, owning and operating a network that serves customers in central and western Victoria and the Western suburbs of Melbourne. This comprises 27 per cent of Victoria's electricity users. SA Power Networks: SKI has 49% interest in the electricity distribution business in South Australia. SA Power Networks operates and maintains the electricity distribution network in South Australia. Services are provided throughout metropolitan areas, including the capital city of Adelaide. ETSA operates its distribution network under a 200 year lease from the South Australian Government, which commenced in January 2000 TransGrid: TransGrid is the largest high-voltage electricity transmission network in the National Electricity Market (NEM) by electricity transmitted. It connects generators, distributors and major end users in NSW and the ACT and forms the backbone of the NEM connecting Qld, NSW, VIC and the ACT. Latest Research Model Update We have incorporated CY19 results into our model and made minor changes to forecasts. The successful completion of Bomen solar farm within its schedule sees us marginally upgrade our NPAT forecast for CY20. For more information see research 2 Apr 2020. GICS - Utilities Spark Infrastructure Group ASX Code: SKI Price: $2.11 12 Mth Target Price: $2.28 Rating: Neutral Important Disclaimer - This may affect your legal rights: Because this document has been prepared without consideration of any specific client's financial situation, particular needs and investment objectives, a Bell Potter Securities Limited investment adviser (or the financial services licensee, or the proper authority of such licensee, who has provided you with this report by arrangement with Bell Potter Securities Limited) should be consulted before any investment decision is made. While this document is based on the information from sources which are considered reliable, Bell Potter Securities Limited, its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate. Nor does Bell Potter Securities Limited accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to its notice, which may affect any of the information contained in this document. This document is a private communication to clients and is not intended for public circulation or for the use of any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Potter Securities Limited. This is general investment advice only and does not constitute advice to any person. Disclosure of Interest: Bell Potter Securities Limited receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in this commission. Bell Potter Securities and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended. Snapshot Date Market Cap. Shares on issue 12 Month High 12 Month Low 1 June 2020 $3,633m 1,721.7m $2.56 $1.69 Rating Rating 12 Mth Target Price Capital Gain Gross Yield Implied Total Return Neutral $2.28 8.1% 7.1% 15.2% Investment Fundamentals FYE 31 Dec 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F Profit $m 90.0 97.0 103.0 112.0 Profit (norm)* $m 90.0 97.0 103.0 112.0 EPS* ¢ 5.0 6.0 6.0 7.0 EPS Growth % 0.0 20.0 0.0 16.7 P/E* x 42.2 35.2 35.2 30.1 P/E Relative % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 DPS ¢ 16.0 13.0 14.0 14.0 Yield % 7.6 6.2 6.6 6.6 Franking % 0.0 13.0 23.0 33.0 * Adjusted for goodwill and unusual items Source: Based on Citi estimates Share Price Chart Total Return on $10,000 Investment

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Page 1: Spark Infrastructure Group ASX Code: SKI Price: $2.01 12 Mth … · Spark Infrastructure Group ASX Code: SKI Price: $2.01 12 Mth Target Price: $2.28 Rating: Neutral Important Disclaimer

Business SummarySpark Infrastructure (SKI) is an infrastructure fund with an objective to investin regulated electricity distribution businesses in Victoria and South Australia.Spark Infrastructure RE Limited is the Responsible Entity. SKI has twosegments namely Victoria Power Networks and SA Power Networks.

Victoria Power Networks: SKI has the 49% interest in two electricitydistribution businesses in Victoria (i.e. CitiPower and Powercor). (i) CitiPowerowns and operates the distribution network that supplies electricity tocustomers in Melbourne's CBD and inner suburbs. In addition to providingelectricity to many of the government and private sector offices, CitiPoweralso supplies energy to many of the state's landmarks including FederationSquare, the Melbourne Cricket Ground, The Victorian Arts Centre, Victoriaand Rod Laver Arena. (ii) Powercor Australia (Powercor) is the distributor ofelectricity in Victoria, owning and operating a network that serves customersin central and western Victoria and the Western suburbs of Melbourne. Thiscomprises 27 per cent of Victoria's electricity users.

SA Power Networks: SKI has 49% interest in the electricity distributionbusiness in South Australia. SA Power Networks operates and maintains theelectricity distribution network in South Australia. Services are providedthroughout metropolitan areas, including the capital city of Adelaide. ETSAoperates its distribution network under a 200 year lease from the SouthAustralian Government, which commenced in January 2000

TransGrid: TransGrid is the largest high-voltage electricity transmissionnetwork in the National Electricity Market (NEM) by electricity transmitted. Itconnects generators, distributors and major end users in NSW and the ACTand forms the backbone of the NEM connecting Qld, NSW, VIC and the ACT.

Latest ResearchModel Update

We have incorporated CY19 results into our model and made minorchanges to

forecasts. The successful completion of Bomen solar farm within itsschedule sees us marginally upgrade our NPAT forecast for CY20.

For more information see research 2 Apr 2020.

GICS - Utilities

Spark Infrastructure Group

ASX Code: SKI Price: $2.11 12 Mth Target Price: $2.28 Rating: Neutral

Important Disclaimer - This may affect your legal rights: Because this document has been prepared without consideration of any specific client's financial situation, particular needs and investmentobjectives, a Bell Potter Securities Limited investment adviser (or the financial services licensee, or the proper authority of such licensee, who has provided you with this report by arrangement withBell Potter Securities Limited) should be consulted before any investment decision is made. While this document is based on the information from sources which are considered reliable, Bell PotterSecurities Limited, its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate.Nor does Bell Potter Securities Limited accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to its notice, which may affect any of the information contained in this document.This document is a private communication to clients and is not intended for public circulation or for the use of any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Potter Securities Limited. This is generalinvestment advice only and does not constitute advice to any person.Disclosure of Interest: Bell Potter Securities Limited receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in thiscommission. Bell Potter Securities and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended.

Snapshot

DateMarket Cap.Shares on issue12 Month High12 Month Low

1 June 2020$3,633m1,721.7m$2.56$1.69

RatingRating12 Mth Target Price

Capital GainGross Yield

Implied Total Return

Neutral$2.288.1%7.1%15.2%

Investment FundamentalsFYE 31 Dec 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F

Profit $m 90.0 97.0 103.0 112.0Profit (norm)* $m 90.0 97.0 103.0 112.0

EPS* ¢ 5.0 6.0 6.0 7.0EPS Growth % 0.0 20.0 0.0 16.7P/E* x 42.2 35.2 35.2 30.1P/E Relative % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

DPS ¢ 16.0 13.0 14.0 14.0Yield % 7.6 6.2 6.6 6.6Franking % 0.0 13.0 23.0 33.0* Adjusted for goodwill and unusual itemsSource: Based on Citi estimates

Share Price Chart

Total Return on $10,000 Investment

Page 2: Spark Infrastructure Group ASX Code: SKI Price: $2.01 12 Mth … · Spark Infrastructure Group ASX Code: SKI Price: $2.01 12 Mth Target Price: $2.28 Rating: Neutral Important Disclaimer

Profit & Loss ($M)2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A

Sales Revenue -- -- -- -- --Total Revenue ex. Int. 24 6 -- -- 7EBITDA 253 229 266 270 259Depreciation & Amort. -0 -0 -0 -0 -1Goodwill Amortisation -- -- -- -- --EBIT 253 229 266 270 258Net Interest -111 -122 -119 -118 -118Profit Before Tax 142 107 147 152 139Income Tax -54 -26 -59 21 -60Outside Equity Int. -- -- -- -- --Profit after Tax 88 81 89 173 79Significant Items after Tax -- -- -- -270 --Reported Profit after Tax 88 81 89 -97 79Preferred Dividends -- -- -- -- --

Cash Flow ($M)2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A

Receipts from Customers -- -- -- -- --Funds from Operations -- -- -- -- --Net Operating Cashflow 207 241 186 195 214Capex -0 -- -1 -0 -163Acquisitions & Investments -- -- -- -10 -11Sale of Invest. & Subsid. -- 211 -- -- --Net Investing Cashflow -739 272 81 86 -131Proceeds from Issues 405 -- -- -- 36Dividends Paid -172 -223 -250 -263 -261Net Financing Cashflow 426 -430 -251 -263 -186Net Increase Cash -106 83 16 17 -103Cash at Beginning 124 18 101 117 134Exchange Rate Adjust. -- -- -- -- --Cash at End 18 101 117 134 31

Ratios and Substantial Shareholders2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A

Profitability RatiosEBITDA Margin % -- -- -- -- --EBIT Margin % -- -- -- -- --Net Profit Margin % -- -- -- -- --Return on Equity % 4.08 3.79 4.27 9.60 4.83Return on Assets % 4.52 4.75 4.93 8.01 5.29

Debt/Safety RatiosNet Debt/Equity % 60.59 47.75 48.35 54.66 69.65Interest Cover x 2.27 1.88 2.24 2.29 2.18

Top 5 Substantial ShareholdersMagellan Financial Group Limited 5.0%

Balance Sheet ($M)2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A

Cash & Equivalent 18 101 117 134 31Receivables 11 9 9 8 7Inventories -- -- -- -- --Other Current Assets 3 2 2 2 11Current Assets 31 112 128 145 49Prop. Plant & Equipment 0 0 1 1 160Intangibles -- -- -- -- --Other Non-Current Assets 3 920 838 743 709Non-Current Assets 3,693 3,413 3,387 3,068 3,034Total Assets 3,724 3,525 3,516 3,212 3,083Interest Bearing Debt 1,325 1,121 1,121 1,121 1,173Other Liabilities 243 266 317 285 272Total Liabilities 1,568 1,387 1,439 1,406 1,445Net Assets 2,156 2,137 2,077 1,806 1,638Share Capital 1,303 1,199 1,068 923 806Reserves -17 -18 -41 -70 -179Retained Earnings 870 956 1,050 952 1,012Outside Equity Int. -- -- -- -- --Total Shareholders Equity 2,156 2,137 2,077 1,806 1,638

Current Analyst Recommendations *

* Source: Morningstar. This chart shows the spread of recommendations from thosebroker analyst's in Australia with research coverage of this stock.

Principals & DirectorsPrincipals

Company Secretary Ms Alexandra Finley

Directors

Mr Gregory John Walton Martin(Non-Executive Director)Mr Andrew James Fay(Non-Executive Director)Mr Miles John George(Non-Executive Director)Dr Douglas Francis McTaggart(Non-ExecutiveDirector,Non-Executive Chairman)Mr Richard (Rick) Francis(Chief Executive Officer,Managing Director)

To access further Research or for information regarding our recommendations and ratings please seewww.bellpotter.com.au

© 2020 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Neither Morningstar, its affiliates, nor the content providers guarantee the data or content contained herein to be accurate, complete or timely nor will they have any liabilityfor its use or distribution. Any Morningstar ratings/recommendations contained in this report are based on the full research report available from Morningstar or your adviser. Any general advice or ‘class service’ havebeen prepared by Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892) and/or Morningstar Research Ltd, subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc, without reference to your objectives, financial situation orneeds. Refer to our Financial Services Guide (FSG) for more information at www.morningstar.com.au/s/fsg.pdf. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant ProductDisclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Our publications, ratings and products should be viewed as an additional investment resource, not as your sole source of information. Past performancedoes not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Some material is copyright and published under licence fromASX Operations Pty Ltd ACN 004 523 782.

Spark Infrastructure Group

Bell Potter Securities Research

AFS Licence No. 243480 ABN 25 006 390 772

Email [email protected]

Website www.bellpotter.com.au