sparrow modeling in the mississippi river basin iowa science assessment davenport, ia nov. 14, 2012...
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SPARROW Modeling in the Mississippi River Basin
Iowa Science AssessmentDavenport, IANov. 14, 2012*[email protected] (608) 821-3867
By Dale M. Robertson* and David A. Saad, USGS,
Wisconsin Water Science Center
Early results suggested this was driven by Nitrogen Loading from the basin, now maybe both Nitrogen and Phosphorus
Gulf Hypoxia
Typical Goals of SPARROW Modeling:
1. Determine P and N loading to various receiving waters over large spatial scales.
2. Determine where are the main contributing basins(Rank contributing basins based on loads and yields).
3. Determine what are the main causes of the high loads (Describe the relative importance of nutrient sources).
4. Provide information to various states and regional organizations to support regional interpretation and guide local, more indepth studies.
Land-to-watertransport
Sources
SPARROW Mass Balance modeling approach:
Monitored loadLong-term Detrended
InstreamTransport and Decay
Upstream Flux
s
D I
I
- Regress water-quality conditions (monitored load) on upstream sources and factors controlling transport
National 1987 and 1992 SPARROW Models
Robertson et al. (2009) SPARROW N Model
Yield, kg/km2
Sources Contributions to Stream Nutrient Flux
Conclusions from the National SPARROW model applied to the Miss. River Basin
Alexander et al., 2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800
Original Rank
Incr
emen
tal
N Y
ield
(x
106
kg
/km
2)90% Confidence Intervals for Yields and Ranks
Horizontal Bars demonstrate the 90% confidence limits on the individual ranksRobertson, et al. 2009
Upper Midwest SPARROW Model CalibrationUpper Midwest SPARROW Model Calibration One Source: 2002 Farm Fertilizer TP inputs, kgOne Source: 2002 Farm Fertilizer TP inputs, kg One Land-to-Water Delivery: Soil PermeabilityOne Land-to-Water Delivery: Soil Permeability
River Network – RF1River Network – RF1 Long-term detrended Loads for 810 sites Long-term detrended Loads for 810 sites
Calibration
Distribution in Incremental Phosphorus Yields
Total Phosphorus Yields(kg km-2)0 – 1213 - 1718 - 2525 - 3334 - 4142 - 5152 - 6465 - 8384 - 114115 - 10001001 – 2,980
Superior
Huron
Mic
higa
n
Erie
Ontario
Total Phosphorus Yields(kg/km2)
0 – 1213 - 1718 - 2525 - 3334 - 4142 - 5152 - 6465 - 8384 - 114115 - 10001001 – 2,980
Superior
Huron
Mic
higa
n
Erie
Ontario
Distribution in Incremental Phosphorus Yields
0
20
40
60
80
Superior Michigan Huron Erie Ontario Red R. Upper Miss. R. Ohio R.
TO
TAL
DE
LIV
ER
ED
YIE
LD
, KG
/KM
2
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Superior Michigan Huron Erie Ontario Red R. Upper Miss. R. Ohio R.
PE
RC
EN
T O
F T
OTA
L D
EL
IVE
RE
D Y
IEL
D
Manure (unconfined)Manure (confined)Fertilizers (farm)Urban and openPoint SourcesForest, wetland, shrub
How do the yields to the Great Lakes Basins compare with each other and with those from other nearby large river basins?
Phosphorus Yields
2002 TN Sites 2002 TN Sites (937 sites > 856 sites)(937 sites > 856 sites)
2002 TP Sites 2002 TP Sites (1,192 sites > 988 sites)(1,192 sites > 988 sites)
Modeling Sites Modeling Sites 2002 load estimates for 2002 load estimates for
SPARROW modelSPARROW model(then removed sites with (then removed sites with poorly predicted loads poorly predicted loads
or large potential or large potential biases)biases)
395 - 215430#
215430 - 792827#
792827 - 2463362#
2463362 - 6923129#
6923129 - 2359613226#
56 - 16485#
16485 - 54436#
54436 - 147710#
147710 - 501307#
501307 - 254808116#
TN Load kg/yr
TP Load kg/yr
MARB 2002 Refined Nitrogen SPARROW Model
Preliminary Results
Fertilizers Fertilizers
Manure Manure
Fixation plus other Ag Geologic
Nitrogen Sources Phosphorus Sources
Future SPARROW Modeling – NHD Plus Scale (1:100,000)
Using HydroSPARROW to predict the effects of changes in Climate (hydrology) and Land Use
Methods to demonstrate results and help guide decisions
(Being Demonstrated Tonight!)
2. Decision Support System
1. SPARROW Mapper – Easy and simple way to get SPARROW results
SPARROW MAPPER
Methods to demonstrate results and help guide decisions
1. SPARROW Mapper
2. Decision Support System Scientists/Managers – Capable of using to visualize SPARROW output and run various scenarios.
Booth et al., 2011
Decision Support System
Display Catchment Information
Display Detailed Information
Scenario TestingScenario Testing
Scenario Results – Graphical Presentation of ChangesScenario Results – Graphical Presentation of Changes
SPARROW Modeling in the Mississippi River Basin
Iowa Science AssessmentDavenport, IANov. 14, [email protected] (608) 821-3867
By Dale M. Robertson* and David A. Saad, USGS,
Wisconsin Water Science Center