spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire in nepal by ashok parajuli
TRANSCRIPT
Welcome
Spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire in Nepal
Advisor Shambhu PaudelLecturer, KAFCOL
ResearcherAshok ParajuliBsc 4th Year
Supported ByUNISDR-Regional South Asia Wildland Fire Network
Contents
1. Introduction2. Objectives3. Methodology4. Result and Discussion5. Conclusion and Recommendation6. Acknowledgement
Introduction Forest fires have been an agent of disturbance for thousands of
year
Controlled fire VS Uncontrolled Fire
No comprehensive data of fire in Nepal
MODIS : Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer 36 spectral band Images entire Earth every 1-2 days at 1 km resolution
Forest fire since 2000
Very few fires are naturally caused in Nepal (NBS, 2002)
ObjectivesGeneral Objective To find out spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire
Specific Objectives To find out the magnitude and temporal distribution pattern
of forest fire in Nepal To prepare fire risk zone To develop fire affected area model
MethodologyStudy Area
Methodology Continue
Use of Arc GISProjection with WGS 1984,44N,UTM-44N
Data obtainedfrom
NASA
Add to ARC GIS Clipping
ProjectionMergeData Analysis
Fig. Data processing
Data Acquisition and Processing
Methodology Continue
Spatial and temporal analysis1. Area calculation using ArcGIS2. Centroid point count using polygons Fire Risk Zonation1. Kernel Density Model2. KDM has been widely used for hotspot analysis and
detection (............Citation)
Development of fire burnt areas model1. .......................variables are included in Model2. Before developing model, to ensure whether there is colli-
nearity or not between variables Variance Inflation Factor(VIF) used
Result and Discussion
Continue
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
1052
16791498
2865
2000
3260
1949 18852274
3287
1897 1858
3518
1198
Year
Fire
Cou
nts
Jan Feb March April May June Sep October Nov December0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013
Month
Fire
Inci
dent
s
-200
5,20
09 a
nd 2
012
high
est n
o of
fire
-Mar
ch, A
pril a
nd M
ay a
re se
nsitiv
e m
onth
s
Continue
Cold season(oct-feb) Hot and dry season(jan-june) Rainy season (july-sept)0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Fire occurance a/c to season
Season
Coun
t
High Mountain
Middle Mountain
Hill
Siwalik
Terai
0 5000 10000 15000
Frequency of Fire Detection
Frequency of Fire De-tection
Phys
iogr
aphi
c R
egio
n of
Nep
al
Continue
Less precipitation
in Eastern areas
(khawas,2007)
Continue
Trans-H
imala
yan S
teppe
Alpine
Pas
ture
Blue P
ine Fore
s
Chir P
ine Fore
st
Hill Sal
Forest
Lower
Tempe
rate O
ak Fore
st
Lower
Tropica
l Sal
and M
ixed B
road l
eave
d Fore
st
Riverrin
e Fore
st
Schim
a-Cas
tanop
sis Fore
st
Fir Fore
st0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
No of Detection
No of Detection
Major Forest Types
No o
f fire
det
ectio
n (2
000-
2013
AD)
Thumb Rule: The higher the value of VIF the greater is the degree of collinearity
Multi-Collinearity Regression
Conclusion Based on GIS techniques, the study shows that there were 30220 hotspots
throughout the study period
2005, 2009 and 2012 forest fires left historically largest annual burnt area in Nepal due to severe fire occurrence.
Three active fire periods in March, April and May also triggered the largest burnt area under drought conditions
Most of the forest fires were in Himalayan region because of alpine pasture. Out of 30220 hotspots in Nepal 7283 hotspots were detected.
73.86% of fires occurred between January to June that is on Hot and Dry season.
Recommendation Special consideration must be taken by the forest department
during hot and dry season with well equipped fire crews
Number of fire lines should be increased especially in Terai region
Government should sanction more budgets for using modern technology
Fire crews should be formed at all levels include CFUG level, range post level, Ilaka forest office and district forest office level incorporating various stakeholders.
Further Research
Acknowledgement
Mr. Shambhu PaudelMr. Sundar SharmaMr. Suraj UpadhayaMr, Shraban BasnetMr. Gagan SharmaUNISDR-Regional South Asia Wildland fire NetworkKAFCOL
THANK YOU
Comments? Questions?