Spatial comparisons of multidimensional poverty inequality in Malawi

ByAnderson Gondwe

PhD Economics StudentStellenbosch University

——Discussion Paper: ECAMA, Lilongwe——

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10 October 2014

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• Introduction & background

• Data & methods

• Poverty & inequality estimates

• Econometric results

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• Pro-poor growth analysis

OUTLINE

Introduction

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1. Malawi is a very poor country both by regional and international standards2. The poverty is in many dimensions3. Little progress at 50 years of independence (6th July 2014)

IHS3(2012) and DHS(2010)

1. 85% of pop in agriculture

2. Agric labour participation: 88%

3. 74% of pop no education

4. 21% never attended school

5. Literacy rate at 65% (>=15yrs)

1. 50.7% poor

2. Gini of 0.452 (previous 0.392)

3. Asset (PCA): quintile 5-Urban=66.3%-Rural=11.3%

4. Stunting(children <5yrs ): 47.1%

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Research gaps

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Research on multidimensional poverty on the frontier

Following the works of Sen (1985, 1987)

Booysen, F. et al (2008) excluded Malawi

Asset index not applied to Malawi

Previous related research in Malawi

Chirwa(2006), Mussa(2011), Gondwe (2011)

This study

Use of asset index, pro-poor analysis, different dataResearch

gaps

filled

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Sex of household head:- Male (76%), female head (24%)

Areas:-Urban (16%), Rural (84%)

Regions:-Northern (12%), Central (43%) and Southern Region (45%)

Across

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Population groups

Data and methods

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Data (1)

DHS 2004DHS 1992 DHS 2000

Household data set:

24,825 households

Men’s data set:

15-54 years

Women’s data set:

15-49 years

Children’s data set:

4,801 (0-59 months of age)

DHS 2010

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Data summary

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Year Survey period No. h/holds No. of children

1992 September-November 1992 5,323 3,353

2000 July-November 2000 14,213 9,753

2004 October 2004 -January 2005 13,664 8,707

2010 June-November 2010 24,825 4,801

Nationally representative data sets

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Child nutritional status

Height for age (HAZ)

Weight for age (WAZ)

Weight for height (WHZ)

Based on WHO Multicentre Growth Reference Study (WHO, 2006)8,440 healthy infants & children drawn from six countries across the world

(1997-2003: Brazil, Ghana, India, Norway, Oman and USA)

1. Stunting

2. Long term

1. Body wasting

2. Current status

1. Underweight

2. Acute & chronic

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0.1

.2.3

.4

Den

sity

-6 -3.6 -1.2 1.2 3.6 6

Anthropometric Z-scores

HAZ WAZ

WHZ

Kernel density plots of anthropometric Z-scores for Malawi

Description HAZ WAZ WHZ

Age (months)

% below

-2SD

% below

-3SD

% below

-2SD

% below

-3SD

% below

2SD

% below

-3SD

0-23 38.77 18.31 13.56 3.68 6.41 2.55

24-59 50.84 19.79 13.95 3.37 2.34 0.80

Sex

Male 49.31 22.22 14.80 3.17 4.41 1.81

Female 42.26 16.25 12.81 3.82 3.76 1.30

Residence

Urban 39.72 15.39 11.57 3.14 2.35 0.58

Rural 46.74 19.82 14.17 3.57 4.38 1.72

Region

Northern 42.83 18.32 12.80 2.46 2.65 0.49

Central 45.58 18.51 14.27 4.03 4.43 1.83

Southern 46.54 20.07 13.50 3.19 4.06 1.52

Malawi

Rate 45.69 19.16 13.78 3.50 4.08 1.55

Poverty and inequality estimates

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16

0.2

.4.6

.81

Cum

ula

tive p

rop

ort

ion o

f child

ren

0 20 40 60 80 100

Anthropometric z-scores

HAZ WAZ

WHZ

Cumulative density curves for anthropometric z-scores

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0.2

.4.6

.81

Cum

ula

tive

pro

por

tion

of c

hild

ren

0 20 40 60 80 100

Height-for-age z-scores

urban rural

Cumulative density curves for height-for-age z-scores

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0.2

.4.6

.81

Cum

ula

tive

pro

por

tion

of c

hild

ren

0 20 40 60 80 100

Height-for-age z-scores

northern central

southern

Cumulative density curves for height-for-age z-scores

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0.2

.4.6

.81

Cum

ulat

ive

prop

ortio

n of

chi

ldre

n

0 20 40 60 80 100

Height-for-age z-scores

male female

Cumulative density curves for height-for-age z-scores

Measure

Description α=0 α=1 α=2 α=0 α=1 α=2 α=0 α=1 α=2 α=0 α=1 α=2

Urban area 40.8% 31.0% 26.4% 10.5% 6.7% 5.1% 2.5% 1.8% 1.5% 7.2% 2.4% 1.1%

Rural area 48.3% 38.0% 33.2% 13.7% 8.7% 7.0% 4.6% 3.3% 2.8% 53.3% 20.3% 10.1%

Northern region 44.8% 34.6% 30.0% 11.8% 6.8% 5.2% 2.9% 1.5% 1.0% 32.4% 11.0% 5.1%

Central region 47.2% 37.2% 32.3% 13.5% 9.0% 7.2% 4.5% 3.4% 2.9% 51.3% 20.6% 10.6%

Southern region 47.6% 37.3% 32.6% 13.2% 8.3% 6.5% 4.3% 3.0% 2.6% 44.5% 16.2% 7.7%

Rural north 44.9% 35.0% 30.5% 12.9% 7.3% 5.6% 3.1% 1.6% 1.1% 34.5% 11.8% 5.5%

Rural centre 48.1% 38.0% 33.1% 13.8% 9.1% 7.3% 4.8% 3.6% 3.2% 59.4% 24.0% 12.3%

Rural south 49.3% 38.9% 34.1% 13.8% 8.7% 6.9% 4.7% 3.3% 2.8% 52.9% 19.3% 9.2%

Urban north 43.8% 32.0% 26.0% 2.9% 2.3% 2.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 8.6% 2.0% 0.7%

Urban centre 42.1% 32.4% 27.7% 12.3% 8.4% 6.6% 2.9% 2.1% 1.6% 9.2% 3.1% 1.5%

Urban south 39.2% 29.5% 25.3% 10.0% 5.9% 4.2% 2.3% 1.8% 1.6% 5.3% 1.8% 0.8%

Male head 47.1% 36.8% 32.1% 12.9% 8.4% 6.7% 4.3% 3.0% 2.6% 41.7% 14.8% 6.9%

Female head 47.6% 38.5% 34.0% 17.0% 9.3% 6.8% 4.1% 3.2% 2.7% 59.1% 25.8% 13.9%

Malawi 47.1% 37.0% 32.2% 13.2% 8.4% 6.7% 4.2% 3.0% 2.6% 46.0% 17.5% 8.6%

HAZ WAZ WHZ Asset index

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0.2

.4.6

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Cum

ulat

ive

shar

e of

hei

ght f

or a

ge z

-sco

res

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1

Cumulative proportion of children

45° line Population

urban rural

Lorenz curves by area of residence

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0.2

.4.6

.81

Cum

ulat

ive

shar

e of

hei

ght f

or a

ge z

-sco

res

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1

Cumulative proportion of children

45° line Population

northern central

southern

Lorenz curves by regions

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0.2

.4.6

.81

Cum

ulat

ive

shar

e of

hei

ght f

or a

ge z

-sco

res

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1

Cumulative proportion of children

45° line Population

male female

Lorenz curves by sex of household head

Gini & Generalized Entropy (GE) inequality estimates

Measure

Description HAZ WAZ WHZ Asset HAZ WAZ WHZ Asset HAZ WAZ WHZ Asset

Urban area 0.683 0.461 0.281 0.326 2.165 0.756 0.279 0.205 0.852 0.364 0.149 0.170

Rural area 0.744 0.521 0.313 0.397 2.563 0.889 0.429 0.261 1.058 0.459 0.186 0.267

Northern region 0.733 0.502 0.290 0.376 2.416 0.787 0.292 0.244 1.018 0.424 0.159 0.230

Central region 0.734 0.513 0.306 0.457 2.547 0.918 0.430 0.353 1.021 0.447 0.181 0.356

Southern region 0.736 0.513 0.314 0.462 2.481 0.840 0.408 0.362 1.029 0.445 0.186 0.361

Rural north 0.739 0.512 0.300 0.361 2.487 0.794 0.310 0.225 1.040 0.441 0.168 0.210

Rural centre 0.742 0.519 0.309 0.394 2.608 0.943 0.450 0.257 1.051 0.457 0.183 0.265

Rural south 0.747 0.523 0.321 0.397 2.532 0.851 0.437 0.259 1.070 0.462 0.194 0.272

Urban north 0.680 0.413 0.197 0.337 1.811 0.691 0.116 0.200 0.845 0.282 0.075 0.180

Urban centre 0.681 0.475 0.292 0.338 2.189 0.768 0.316 0.220 0.850 0.390 0.166 0.182

Urban south 0.678 0.454 0.281 0.308 2.182 0.752 0.268 0.184 0.842 0.353 0.145 0.152

Male head 0.734 0.512 0.308 0.441 2.502 0.872 0.402 0.327 1.022 0.443 0.180 0.325

Female head 0.741 0.519 0.313 0.478 2.528 0.856 0.453 0.385 1.048 0.459 0.186 0.400

Malawi 0.735 0.513 0.308 0.453 2.505 0.871 0.406 0.348 1.024 0.444 0.181 0.346

Gini Theil L (theta=0) Theil T (theta=1)

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Poverty mappingInequality mapping

Description FGT index α=0 α=1 α=2 α=0 α=1 α=2 α=0 α=1 α=2

Sub-group Pop. share % cont. % cont. % cont. % cont. % cont. % cont. % cont. % cont. % cont.

Urban area 0.150 0.130 0.126 0.124 0.126 0.129 0.126 0.086 0.088 0.084

Rural area 0.850 0.870 0.874 0.876 0.874 0.871 0.874 0.914 0.912 0.916

Northern region 0.107 0.100 0.098 0.098 0.100 0.094 0.094 0.071 0.051 0.043

Central region 0.464 0.463 0.465 0.464 0.478 0.489 0.491 0.496 0.523 0.530

Southern region 0.429 0.437 0.437 0.438 0.423 0.417 0.415 0.433 0.427 0.427

Rural north 0.096 0.090 0.089 0.089 0.097 0.091 0.090 0.069 0.048 0.041

Rural centre 0.396 0.402 0.405 0.405 0.413 0.422 0.427 0.451 0.478 0.491

Rural south 0.358 0.377 0.380 0.382 0.364 0.358 0.358 0.394 0.385 0.384

Urban north 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.009 0.003 0.004 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.002

Urban centre 0.067 0.060 0.059 0.058 0.064 0.066 0.064 0.045 0.045 0.039

Urban south 0.072 0.060 0.057 0.056 0.059 0.059 0.057 0.039 0.041 0.043

Male head 0.919 0.919 0.916 0.915 0.900 0.914 0.919 0.916 0.906 0.904

Female head 0.081 0.081 0.084 0.085 0.100 0.086 0.081 0.084 0.094 0.096

Population 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

HAZ WAZ WHZNutritional status indicator

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OLS results

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Variables HAZ SE WAZ SE WHZ SE

Age in months -0.085*** (0.006) -0.039*** (0.004) 0.004 (0.005)

Square of age 0.114*** (0.010) 0.044*** (0.007) -0.004 (0.008)

Female child 0.248*** (0.047) 0.071* (0.034) -0.068 (0.040)

Child is twin -0.832*** (0.122) -0.789*** (0.086) -0.202* (0.103)

Birth order number 0.018 (0.012) 0.025** (0.009) 0.023* (0.010)

Mother's education Incomplete primary 0.086 (0.073) 0.153** (0.050) 0.128* (0.058)

Complete primary 0.178 (0.101) 0.176* (0.070) 0.15 (0.088)

Incomplete secondary 0.320** (0.109) 0.275*** (0.076) 0.1 (0.088)

Complete secondary 0.223 (0.148) 0.311** (0.105) 0.330** (0.126)

Post secondary 0.946* (0.421) 0.624* (0.264) 0.164 (0.397)

Father's education Incomplete primary -0.005 (0.092) -0.148* (0.063) -0.092 (0.073)

Complete primary -0.102 (0.118) -0.15 (0.084) 0.004 (0.096)

Incomplete secondary 0.009 (0.104) -0.092 (0.074) -0.052 (0.085)

Post secondary 0.092 (0.229) -0.12 (0.129) -0.212 (0.181)

Asset index 0.217*** (0.046) 0.179*** (0.033) -0.004 (0.039)

Square of asset index -0.028* (0.012) -0.018* (0.008) 0.013 (0.011)

Constant -1.048*** (0.167) -0.324** (0.115) 0.199 (0.138)

R-squared 0.084

0.070

0.002 Prob > F 0.000

0.000

0.034

N 4,574

4,700

4,531 *p<0.05,**p<0.01, ***p<0.001

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Pov

erty

hea

dcou

nt

0 20 40 60 80 100

Height for age z-scores(HAZ)

1992 2000

2004 2010

Poverty incidence curves for HAZ by survey year

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1. Positive growth2. Absolute pro-poor growth3. Relative and pro-poor growth

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.02

.04

.06

.08

.1

Abso

lute

cha

nge

in h

eigh

t-for

-age

sco

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0 20 40 60 80 100

Height-for-age scores

Confidence interval (95 %) Estimated difference

1992 minus 2010:first order

Absolute pro-poor growth in height-for-age scores

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Asset index Estimate Std. Err. t P>|t| Pov. line

1992 0.795 0.006 143.76 0.000 0.784 0.806 0.807

2000 0.805 0.003 242.46 0.000 0.799 0.812 0.807

Difference 0.01 0.006 1.56 0.118 -0.003 0.023 ---

2000 0.805 0.003 242.46 0.000 0.799 0.812 0.807

2004 0.785 0.004 223.15 0.000 0.778 0.792 0.807

Difference -0.021 0.005 -4.26 0.000 -0.03 -0.011 ---

2004 0.785 0.004 223.15 0.000 0.778 0.792 0.807

2010 0.5 0.007 70.05 0.000 0.486 0.514 0.807

Difference -0.284 0.008 -35.73 0.000 -0.3 -0.269 ---

1992 0.795 0.006 143.76 0.000 0.784 0.806 0.807

2010 0.5 0.007 70.05 0.000 0.486 0.514 0.807

Difference -0.295 0.009 -32.65 0.000 -0.313 -0.277 ---

[95% Conf. interval]

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Questions & contributions

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