Spatial distribution of Spatial distribution of mature and old forestmature and old forest

Dave Daust, Feb 25Dave Daust, Feb 25

Mega-projectMega-project

Phase IPhase I Part 1: Uncertainty related to patternPart 1: Uncertainty related to pattern

Study 1Study 1 Study 2 Study 2

Part 2: Feasibility and cost of Phase IIPart 2: Feasibility and cost of Phase II

Phase II: Measuring the distribution of Phase II: Measuring the distribution of mature and old forestmature and old forest

Uncertainty related to Uncertainty related to patternpattern

OutlineOutline

1.1. Landscape pattern 101Landscape pattern 101

2.2. Current knowledgeCurrent knowledge

3.3. The influence of harvest pattern on old The influence of harvest pattern on old forest patternforest pattern

4.4. The value of pattern for different speciesThe value of pattern for different species

5.5. Summary and recommendationsSummary and recommendations

inter-patch distance

habitat patch

unsuitable habitat

Landscape pattern 101Landscape pattern 101

Habitat loss

How useful is habitatHow useful is habitat

Territories and dispersalTerritories and dispersal

Current knowledgeCurrent knowledge

Objective: attain a natural landscape Objective: attain a natural landscape patternpattern

Risk

% of natural patch-size class

The influence of harvest The influence of harvest pattern on old forest pattern on old forest

pattern: a comparison pattern: a comparison with naturalwith natural

Simulation VariablesSimulation Variables

Disturbance rateDisturbance rate Low Low 32% old 32% old High High 11% old 11% old

Disturbance patternDisturbance pattern Natural Natural 80 ha blocks 80 ha blocks ±± greenup rules greenup rules Biodiversity guidebook blocks Biodiversity guidebook blocks ±± greenup rules greenup rules

32% old; natural disturbance 32% old; guidebook logging

Old forest Old forest

11% old; natural disturbance 11% old; guidebook logging

Old forest Old forest

Old forest area greatly influences Old forest area greatly influences patch size distributionpatch size distribution

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

20 145 625 3000 7500 15000 25000

Patch size

Pro

port

ion

of a

rea

32% 11%Natural Disturbance

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

20 145 625 3000 7500

Patch size

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f are

a

ND11 250b 250a 80b

`

Disturbance type influences patch Disturbance type influences patch size distributionsize distribution

Guidebook harvesting with greenup rulesNatural disturbance

ConclusionsConclusions

Guidebook (“Natural”) harvesting patterns Guidebook (“Natural”) harvesting patterns will not create natural old forest patternswill not create natural old forest patterns

Amount of old forest had the biggest Amount of old forest had the biggest influence on patterninfluence on pattern

Guidebook harvesting with greenup rules Guidebook harvesting with greenup rules is the closestis the closest

The value of pattern for The value of pattern for different species: a different species: a

summary of the Nadina summary of the Nadina StudyStudy

Simulation MethodsSimulation Methods

DisturbanceDisturbance Mountain pine beetleMountain pine beetle HarvestingHarvesting Artificial landscapesArtificial landscapes

Harvest patternHarvest pattern 80 ha blocks80 ha blocks Large, variably-sized blocksLarge, variably-sized blocks

Habitat analysis for virtual animalsHabitat analysis for virtual animals TerritoriesTerritories ConnectivityConnectivity

Virtual animalsVirtual animals

Habitat affinityHabitat affinity Territory size and dispersal rangeTerritory size and dispersal range Territory plasticity (expansion)Territory plasticity (expansion)

ResultsResults

VariableVariable ““Population” responsePopulation” response

Old forest area Old forest area

Cutblock sizeCutblock size --

Old forest patch size on Old forest patch size on artificial landscapeartificial landscape

Artificial landscapesArtificial landscapes

500 ha territories with high and low placticity

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4

Habitat

Ha

bit

at

in t

err

ito

rie

s

small patches

large patches

ConclusionsConclusions

Harvesting pattern does not influence old Harvesting pattern does not influence old forest habitat use (under the range of forest habitat use (under the range of conditions evaluated).conditions evaluated).

Old forest pattern has some potential to Old forest pattern has some potential to influence habitat useinfluence habitat use

SummarySummary

The current harvest pattern indicator is not The current harvest pattern indicator is not appropriate becauseappropriate because Guidebook harvesting patterns do not create Guidebook harvesting patterns do not create

natural old forest patternsnatural old forest patterns Harvesting patterns do not influence old forest Harvesting patterns do not influence old forest

habitat usehabitat use Old forest pattern has some potential to Old forest pattern has some potential to

influence habitat useinfluence habitat use Habitat amount influences habitat useHabitat amount influences habitat use

RecommendationsRecommendations

Ignore pattern and rely on habitat amount Ignore pattern and rely on habitat amount oror

Use a pattern indicator that assesses old Use a pattern indicator that assesses old forest (and other seral stages) directlyforest (and other seral stages) directly

Continue to implement “guidebook” Continue to implement “guidebook” harvesting patternsharvesting patterns

Feasibility and cost of Feasibility and cost of measuring the distribution measuring the distribution of mature and old forestof mature and old forest

Dave Daust, Feb 25Dave Daust, Feb 25

Why measure old forest?Why measure old forest?

Recall past studyRecall past study amount amount

amount of amount of differentdifferent old forest ecosystems old forest ecosystems (ecosystem representation)(ecosystem representation)

Different ecosystemsDifferent ecosystems

ClimateClimate TopographyTopography Local soil conditionsLocal soil conditions

DisturbanceDisturbance Succession Succession

Site series

Seral stages

Chance

Benefit/cost analysisBenefit/cost analysis

TEM

Benefit = accuracy

Benefit/cost analysisBenefit/cost analysis

Variant

TEM

Benefit = accuracy

Benefit/cost analysisBenefit/cost analysis

PEM

Variant

VRI

TEM

Benefit = accuracy

Benefit/cost analysisBenefit/cost analysis

PEM

Updated VRI

Variant

VRI

TEM

Benefit = accuracy

Benefit/cost analysisBenefit/cost analysis

PEM

Updated VRI

Variant

VRI

TEM

Cost = delay + $ for analysis Benefit = accuracy

$

$

$

$

now

now

> 2 yr

$

> 5 yr ?

never ?

MethodsMethods

Get the dataGet the data Mess with itMess with it Do the analysisDo the analysis And write reportAnd write report

RecommendationRecommendation

Use existing VRI (best benefit/cost ratio)Use existing VRI (best benefit/cost ratio)

MethodsMethodsTaskTask DaysDays

Obtain spatial data for Babine Watershed Obtain spatial data for Babine Watershed --

Clean up data and create a single “forest” Clean up data and create a single “forest” coverage (map) coverage (map)

--

Define forested land, create seral stages and Define forested land, create seral stages and create site classes create site classes

0.50.5

Calculate seral stage distribution of each Variant-Calculate seral stage distribution of each Variant-site combination site combination

0.50.5

Prepare report Prepare report 0.50.5

Prepare presentation and present to BWMT Prepare presentation and present to BWMT 0.50.5