SPATIAL MODEL OF

DEFORESTATION FOR

NORTHEAST BOLIVIA

Eric Armijo

Methods for Biomass Estimationand Forest-Cover Mapping in the Tropics

Rwanda. June 20-25, 2011

WHY SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATION?

• Better understanding of past land use change processes

• Predictive power (future scenarios): spatial patterns

• Support decision-making for natural resource managers

• REDD mechanism: baseline definition(additionality)

Dinamica EGOUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Brazil

http://www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica/

• Multiple land cover/use transitions at the same time• Subregion support• Many transition matrices (annual deforestation rates)• Dynamic variables• Highly customizable (w/ spatial patterns) • Robust with large datasets• Freeware, available on the web• Tutorial & technical support available (forum)

MODELING ENVIRONMENT

Dinamica EGO

MODELING ENVIRONMENT

STUDY AREA

AMAZONEXTENT

SOUTH AMERICA

Indigenous REDD Programin the Bolivian Amazon

Size: ~ 3.8 Million Ha.

160,000 inhabitants

4 indigenous territories

Forest cover (2008):

~2.7 Million Ha. (71,9 %)

Deforestation: 9,800 Ha/yr

MAIN DRIVERS AND AGENTS OF DEFORESTATION

Cattle ranching (pastures) Small-scale agriculture

Slash-and-burn

~ 20 - 50 Ha. ~ 1 - 5 Ha.

Road improvement

11

223344

44

44

11

22

33

44

Riberalta - Guayaramerín

Riberalta - Rurrenabaque

El Choro - Cobija

Rural (outside main road)

REGIONALIZATION OF THE STUDY AREA

Lambin & Geist, 2006

Amount of forest

conversion

SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATION

Area (Ha.)

antes 1991 1991-2001 2001-2005 2005-2008

Study area 83,486 45,390 46,185 29,005 204,066

Average annual

deforestation rate

(Ha/year) 4,539 11,546 9,668

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Deforestation(Area in Ha.)

1991 2001 2005 2008

DEFORESTATION RATE

1.54 %

0.62 %

0.10 %

0.13 %

0.13 %

0.13 %

The transition matrix is calculated for each

subregion based on observed (past)

deforestation

DEFORESTATION RATE (Transition Matrix)

DEFORESTATION RATE1991-2005

Lambin & Geist, 2006

Location of forest

conversion

SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATION

PREDICTORS (VARIABLES) DEFINITION

Distance to deforested areas Distance to main roads

“Deforestation risk”

Deforestation predictors

(variables)

Land use

1991

& 2005

Map of

changes

Spatial transition probability

Lambin & Geist, 2006

Simulation

SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATION

Deforestation patch formation

Expander = 20% Expander = 40% Expander = 60% Expander = 80%

GENERATING SPATIAL PATTERNS

Simulated deforestation: 2005-2008

MODEL VALIDATION

Is the model capturingadequately the past

dynamics ?

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Model fitness

Spatial resolution (m)Sim

ilari

rty

PROJECTING FUTURE DEFORESTATION SCENARIOS

2008 2020

forestdeforestation Dinamica

EGO

Thanks you !

Questions

Eric Armijo

earmijo@fan-bo.org

http://www.fan-bo.org/

http://www.reddamazonia.org/