spatial plan concept - nairobi metropolitan development - timothy mahea
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Timothy Mahea Timothy Mahea Timothy Mahea Timothy MaheaTRANSCRIPT
Development of a Spatial Planning Concept for Nairobi Metropolitan Region
STUDY STATUS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Republic of Kenya
Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development
February 2011
Consulting Engineering Services (India) Pvt. Ltd. 57, Nehru Place, 5th Floor, New Delhi -110 019, India
In association with
Runji & Partners, Consulting Engineers and Planners Ltd.
3, Kindaruma Road, P.O Box 68053, Nairobi, Kenya
Project: Preparation of Spatial Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region of Kenya Page 1
Document: 2010063/UPD February, 2011
Executive Summary R0
Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development, Government of Kenya
Development of a Spatial Planning Conept
for
Nairobi Metropolitan Region
Study Status Executive Summary
1. The study has been initiated by the Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development
(MoNMD), GoK and is being carried out by M/S Consulting Engineering Services (India)
Private Limited, New Delhi, in association with M/S Runji & Partners, Consulting
Engineers, Nairobi
2. The study was started w.e.f 20 September 2010
3. As of date the following reports have been submitted
i. Inception Report (in October, 2010)
ii. Status Report I (Base Map) (in December 2010)
iii. Status Report- II (Sectoral Characteristics, Transport Surveys, Stakeholders
Meetings) (in December 2010)
iv. Working Paper on NMR-2030: Population Forecast & Distribution, Employment,
Occupation Structure and Urban Land Use Structure (in February 2011)
4. The Inception Report
presents a brief overview of some of the major policies of GoK that impact planning
and development of Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR)
lists the objectives of the study, the overall objective being to develop a sustainable
land use system for NMR
details the study methodology in 21 modules and
presents the activity schedule and deliverables
5. The Status Report I
The Status Report I describes the methodology of preparation of the Base Map of NMR
on GIS platform
The Survey of Kenya toposheets had been taken as a primary source of Base Map
development which had been geo-referenced, vectorised and mapped for important
layers in groups like Administrative Boundaries, Settlements/Built-up, Natural green
Areas, Transport Network, Water Bodies, and indicative contours at 100m interval. The
most important layer in terms of planning for development of a Metropolitan Region
being the existing condition of built-up and settlements of the area, the same has been
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Document: 2010063/UPD February, 2011
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MAP.1: BASE MAP FOR NMR
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updated from the latest satellite image using the GEO-Eye data of 2010. Further
developments of the road corridors like the bypasses which have come up in recent few
months or under construction have been updated by traversing using the GPS. A
universal projection system, the UTM with WGS-84 datum has been assigned for the
geo-referenced toposheets and Satellite Images so as to derive the layers and maps
which could be used for further studies and directly the GPS and other surveyed data
can be overlaid.
Accuracy and integrity of base map is the most important criteria for any good spatial
study. SDP-NMR being the one with a large areal extent of about 32,000 sq km, the
accuracy of base map becomes further more important. The features and their
accuracies in the source maps and satellite images has been cross checked in the field
using one of the most reliable hand held GPS, the Garmin GPS 76CSx having SWIR
antenna giving a accuracy in the range of + 4m. The maps have been checked by GPS
traversing and Ground Control Points with respect to the land features likes roads and
major structures. It has been found that most of the land features were in the most
desirable accuracy range of +10-15m for a study like SDP-NMR. The requirement for
the development of concept plan for SDP-NMR is a broad scaled map in the range of
1:500,000 to 1:100,000 scales. However the accuracy achieved in this Base Map is
better than that required for 1: 50,000 scale. Hence the layers derived for the base map
in GIS format could be put to use for any further spatial study at a level of 1: 50,000
scale.
Though the Base Map is developed in GIS format which is scale independent, i.e., could
be printed and viewed at any scale, the hard copies have been printed for the SDP-NMR
Status – I Report at the following scales - Base Map for Nairobi Metropolitan Region
(1:400,000), County Nairobi (1:100,000), County Kajiado (1:450,000), County Machakos
(1:300,000) and County Kiambu (1: 200,000).
The methodology of preparation of Base Map and the potentials of its use and
application was presented by the GIS experts of the Study Team, to the members of the
Progress Review Committee and officers of the MoNMD.
6. The Status Report II
The Status Report II (SR-II) is a detailed report presenting the status and salient features
of the NMR in all its dimensions – physical, demographic, economic, social, transport,
physical, land use, infrastructure, environment, landscape, urban design and institutional
framework.
The SR – II:
presents a detailed overview of the major policies of the GoK that impact the spatial
development of NMR
presents an analysis of the demographic characteristics of NMR
discusses the economic profile
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presents the landuse structure of the major urban centres in the region
presents a detailed analysis of the traffic and travel characteristics of the people and
the features of the transport system
details the social profile of the people
discusses the environmental status
briefly reviews the physical infrastructure system services and
presents an overview of a large number of legal statues that govern physical
development
A SWOT analysis of the NMR has also been presented highlighting the opportunities,
potentials and constraints.
The report lists the extensive data/reports/maps/ etc that have been collected from
secondary sources.
The report stresses on the need for a National Urbanisation Policy.
As part of the study extensive meetings with a large number of stakeholders of different
descriptions have been carried out to elicit the stakeholders perceptions of and
suggestions for the spatial development plan.
The SR-II has enabled a clear understanding of the ongoing development process, the
critical issues that need to be addressed, and the opportunities that need to be exploited.
In the context of the revised political administrative system of counties and with four (4)
counties in the NMR, an effective institutional framework for integrated and coordinated
development of the NMR emerges as a critical need.
7. Working Paper
A Working Paper on Population forecast and Distribution, Employment, Occupation
Structure and Urban Land use structure has been submitted (February 2011). The policy
assumptions and the forecasts form the base for detailing the Spatial Development Plan.
The population of NMR is growing
rapidly. The forecast of population
by 2030, under three (3)
scenarios of Business As usual,
Vision Based and unabated
Development – has been made.
The range is 13.2 million to 20.1
million.
FIG.1: POPULATION PROJECTION BY THREE METHODS FOR NMR
IN 2020 AND 2030
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The forecast, of 15.1 million, under Vision
Based scenario has been selected for further
detailing.
FIG.2: POPULATION FOR NMR IN 2009 AND 2030
Presently there is an inequitable distribution of
people by the component sub-regions (4
counties). Nairobi city accounts for almost half of
the region population (2009) and Northern Metro
Region (Kiambu County) for half of the balance
population. Some of the urban centres are
experiencing runaway growth rates. There is a
need for a more balanced growth and
distribution.
FIG. 3: PROJECTED DISTRIBUTION WITHIN
NMR AND ONMR
It is proposed to contain the population size of Nairobi City to be 5.21 million (2030). It is
proposed to decelerate the growth rate of urban centres in Northern Metro Region and
accelerate the growth rate of
urban centres in Eastern Metro
Region. Even with this policy
distribution, Northern Metro will
account for a large share of the
population (4.99 million). However
the other two (2) sub-regions will
have large size of 2.97 million in
Eastern and 1.96 million in
Southern Metro Regions.
FIG. 4: PROJECTED POPULATION CHANGE IN NAIROBI
In the revised urbanisation pattern, apart from Nairobi city, there will be 3 more near
metropolitan cities (Ruiru, Kikuyu and Kangundo-Tala).
Six (6) New Towns, 2 in each of the three sub-regions (other than Nairobi), of about
100,000 population each, have been proposed.
The overall forecast of population in NMR, by component spatial units is presented in
Table 1.
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Table 1: NMR – 2030: Population Forecast
Sr. No. Spatial Units 2009 2030
1 NMR 6,658,000 15,135,881
2 Core Nairobi 3,138,369 5,212,500
3 Total Urban within NMR 4,887,664 12,999,992
4 ONMR 3,519,631 9,923,381
a Total Urban within NMR (without Nairobi) 1,749,295 7,787,492
b Rural 1,770,336 2,135,889
5a Northern Metro 1,786,879 4,990,641
Urban 976,295 4,180,712
Rural 810,584 809,929
5b Eastern Metro 1,045,440 2,969,576
Urban 507,978 2,376,526
Rural 537,462 593,050
5c Southern Metro 687,312 1,963,164
Urban 265,022 1,230,255
Rural 422,290 732,910
5a Northern Metro
i. Ruiru 238,858 973,911
ii. Thika 139,853 570,232
iii. Limuru 104,282 425,196
iv. Kiambu 88,869 362,351
v. Juja 40,446 164,913
vi. Kikuyu 234,053 954,320
vii. Karuri 129,934 529,788
Sum (i-vii) 976,295 3,980,712
2 New Towns (with 100,000 in each) 200,000
Total Urban 976,295 4,180,712
5b Eastern Metro
i. Machakos 150,041 642,879
ii. Mavoko 139,380 597,199
iii. Kangundo/Tala 218,557 936,448
Sum (i-iii) 507,978 2,176,526
2 New Towns (with 100,000 in each) 200,000
Total Urban 507,978 2,376,526
5c Southern Metro
i. Ngong 107,188 412,641
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Sr. No. Spatial Units 2009 2030
ii. Kitengela 58,167 223,925
iii. Ongata Rongai 40,178 154,673
iv. Kiserian 18,096 69,664
v. Namanga 9,066 34,901
vi. Isinya 8,670 33,377
vii. Bissil 5,376 20,696
viii. Kajiado 18,281 70,376
Sum (k-r) 265,022 1,020,255
2 New Towns (with 100,000 in each) 200,000
Magadi 10,000
Total Urban 265,022 1,230,255
Source: Projection by the Consultant
With the expectation of growth of Kenya’s GDP at 10% as envisaged in Kenya Vision
2030, NMR GDP would need to grow at about 15%. The per capita income would more
than double. The economy is expected to become more formal. While agriculture will be
the main occupation in the rural areas, manufacturing, transportation, construction and
service sectors would be the major sectors contributing to the urban, and in general to
the overall, economy of the region.
The large increase in employment size presents an opportunity to promote balanced
spatial and inclusive development of NMR. However it calls for comprehensive,
coordinated and continuous planning and development process.
NMR is a highly urbanised region and will continue to be more urbanised in the decades
to come. The urban share will be about 87%. The 18 urban centres (excluding Nairobi
city) will grow at high rates and will increase their population size manifold. Care needs
to be exercised in consuming land for urban use. Optimal densities, based on city size,
have been recommended. About 173 sq. km of land would be under urban developed
land which is about 5.4% of NMR area.
The occupational structure of each of the urban centres have been proposed based on
their functional character.
The land use structure of each of the urban centre has been proposed, again with
reference to their envisaged function.
It is important that each of the urban local authority is encouraged and facilitated to
prepare comprehensive Master Plans, Zoning plans and Local Area Plans for their town
to promote and guide integrated and balanced spatial, economic, social and
infrastructure development to attain the status of world class region.
8. The Executive Summary of each of the above reports are enclosed for more detailed
reference.
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Occupational Structure and Land Use Distribution, 2030 1. Nairobi
2. Ruiru
3. Thika
4. Limuru
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5. Kiambu
6. Juja
7. Kikuyu
8. Karuri
Occupational Structure in 2030
Agril.
23%
Manf.
14%Trans p.
7%C ons t.
5%
S erv.
51%
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9. Machakos
10. Movoko
11. Kangundo/Tala
12. Ngong
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13. Kitengela
14. Ongata Rongai
15. Kiserian
16. Namanga
Occupational Structure in 2030
Agril.
10%
Manf.
10%
Trans p.
6%
C ons t.
6%
S erv.
68%
Occupational Structure in 2030
Agril.
11%
Manf.
3%
Trans p.
7%
C ons t.
6%
S erv.
73%
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17. Isinya
18. Bissil
19. Kajiado
20. Aerotropolis (near Thika)
Occupational Structure in 2030
Agril.
12%Manf.
4%
Trans p.
6%
C ons t.
6%
S erv.
72%
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21. Ruaka New Town
22. New Town (near Aeroptroplis)
23. New Town (Along Eastern by-pass)
Land Use Distribution, 2030
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24. Ambosilli New Town
25. Kajiado Transport Hub
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Document: 2010063/UPD/ Inception Report October, 2010
Executive Summary R0
Study on
Concept Spatial Development Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region
Inception Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. The Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development, GoK, has initiated the study on
preparation of a Concept Spatial Development Plan (SDP) for the Nairobi
Metropolitan Region (NMR). The study has been assigned to M/S Consulting
Engineering Services (I) Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi in association with M/S Runji and
Partners, Nairobi. The study has been initiated w.e.f. from 20th September 2010.
2. NMR, the study area, extends over 32,000 sqkm and includes the jurisdiction of the
15 local authorities comprising City Council of Nairobi, Municipal Councils of Kiambu,
Limuru, Machakos, Mavoko, Ruiru and Thika, Town Council of Kajiado, Karuri,
Kikuyu and Tala / Kangundo and County Councils of Kiambu, Masaku, Olkejuado
and Thika.
According to the new administrative units of governance, NMR comprises 4 counties
of Nairobi, Kiambu, Machakos and Kajiado. As of 2009, NMR contained a population
size of 6.71 million, of which Nairobi city accounted for 3.14 million.
3. A brief reconnaissance survey of the region has been made to appreciate the
physical and other characteristics of the region. The terrain slopes from north-west to
south-southeast. The region has a number of large and dense forests, national parks
and open areas. A number of rivers drain the region and are a source of water
supply. Nairobi is the main city with concentration of people and activities. Some of
the regional towns, though presently grown as dormitory towns, have potential for
concerted development to absorb more population and activities and thrive as
important, functional, regional centers. The traffic within, to and from Nairobi is
intense leading to congestion and delays. Traffic within the regional towns is low and
is primarily by walk and IPT modes. Traffic between Nairobi and the regional towns is
intense. Direct interactions amongst regional town are constrained due to poor
connectivity.
4. The proposed study methodology is comprehensive. It is structured into interlinked
modules. They are:
Module 1: Base Map
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Document: 2010063/UPD/ Inception Report October, 2010
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Module 2: World Class City
Module 3: Demography and Settlement Pattern
Module 4: Economic Structure and Prospects
Module 5: Strength Weakness Opportunity and Threats (SWOT) Analysis
Module 6: Social Dimension
Module 7: Environment Dimension
Module 8: Social Infrastructure
Module 9: Housing and Slums in NMR
Module 10: Tourism
Module 11: Transport
Module 12: Land Use and Development Study
Module 13: Physical Infrastructure
Module 14: New Towns – Planning and Development
Module 15: Structure Plans for Urban Areas
Module 16: Urban Design
Module 17: Regional Landscpe
Module 18: Governance, Institutions and Legal Support in NMR
Module 19: Resource Mobilisation
Module 20: Concept Spatial Development Plan
Module 21: Technology Transfer Mechanism
The methodology also includes extensive meetings, discussions and interactions with
the stakeholders.
5. The study period is 16 weeks, w.e.f. the date of initiation of the study. An Activity
Schedule of the study has been prepared. The deliverables include: Inception
Report, Stage I Report, Stage II Report, Draft Final Report and Final Report.
6. This Inception report is submitted as the first of the deliverables. The report
comprises 7 chapters detailing various aspects of study methodology.
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Document: 2010063/UPD/ Status Report 1 October, 2010
Executive Summary R0
Study on
Concept Spatial Development Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region
Status Report 1 (Base Map)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Base Map is a fundamental requirement for planning any developmental activity and
further designing and detailing as it depicts fundamental information about the Earth's
surface such as landforms and drainage and existing infrastructure and other
developmental changes brought about by human activities.
The preparation of Spatial Development Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region has been
taken up as an initiative to meet with the vision under Nairobi Metro Vision 2030. Building
a Spatial Plan required a Base Map derived from accurate sources like topographic
sheets from Survey of Kenya and further updated with respect to the latest ground
realities. The latest satellite images of 2010 have been used for this purpose.
The Survey of Kenya toposheets, taken as a primary source for Base Map development,
have been geo-referenced, vectorised and mapped for important layers in groups like
Administrative Boundaries, Settlements/Built-up, Natural green Areas, Transport
Network, Water Bodies, and indicative contours at 100m interval. The most important
layer in terms of planning for development of a metropolitan region being the existing
situation of built-up and settlements in the area, the same has been updated from the
latest satellite image using the GEO-Eye data of 2010. Further, developments of the
road corridors like the bypasses which have come up in last few months or are under
construction have been updated by traversing using the GPS. A universal projection
system, the UTM with WGS-84 datum has been assigned for the geo-referenced
toposheets and satellite images so as to derive the layers and maps which could be
used for further studies and also the GPS and other surveyed data could be overlaid
directly.
Accuracy and integrity of Base Map is an essential criterion for any good spatial study.
SDP-NMR being the one with a large areal extent of about 32,000 sq km, the accuracy
of Base Map becomes further more important. The features and their accuracies in the
source maps and satellite images has been cross checked in the field using one of the
most reliable hand held GPS, the Garmin GPS 76CSx having SWIR antenna giving a
accuracy in the range of + 4m. The maps have been checked by GPS traversing and
Ground Control Points with respect to the land features such as roads and major
structures. It has been found that most of the land features are in the most desirable
accuracy range of +10-15m for a study like SDP-NMR. The requirement for the
development of concept plan for SDP-NMR is a broad scaled map in the range of 1:
500,000 to 1: 100,000 scales. However the accuracy achieved in this Base Map is better
Project: Preparation of Spatial Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region of Kenya Page ii
Document: 2010063/UPD/ Status Report 1 October, 2010
Executive Summary R0
than that required for a 1: 50,000 scale map. Hence the layers derived for the Base Map
in GIS format could be put to use for any further spatial study at a level of 1: 50,000
scale.
Though the Base Map is developed in GIS format which is scale independent, i.e., could
be printed and viewed at any scale, the hard copies have been printed for the SDP-NMR
Status –I report at the following scales - Base Map for Nairobi Metropolitan
Region(1:400,000), County Nairobi (1:100,000), County Kajiado(1:450,000), County
Machakos (1:300,000 ) and County Kiambu (1: 200,000 ). The Base Map layers derived
will be further used for development of Land use maps and other thematic maps for the
current study.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Status Report- II (Sectoral
Characteristics, Transport
Surveys, Stakeholders
Meetings)
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Document: 2010063/UPD/ Status Report 2 December, 2010
Executive Summary R0
Study on
Development of Spatial Planning Concept for Nairobi Metropolitan Region
Status Report 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. The Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development, GoK, has initiated the study on
preparation of a Concept Spatial Development Plan (SDP) for the Nairobi
Metropolitan Region (NMR). The study has been assigned to M/S Consulting
Engineering Services (I) Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi in association with M/S Runji and
Partners, Nairobi. The study has been initiated w.e.f. from 20th September 2010.
2. As part of the study two deliverables i.e Inception Report and Status 1 Report
detailing the basemap of NMR on GIS platform and 2 progress reports have already
been submitted.
3. The Status 2 Report is submitted as the third deliverable. The ‘Status Report – 2’
forms the base for formulating policies, selecting strategies and listing programmes
for the preparation of the Concept Spatial Development Plan for the NMR. It
comprises 21 chapters and presents all the dimensions of the region such as
physical planning, roads, transportation, regional economics, physical infrastructure
(water, sewerage, drainage, solid waste management, power and
telecommunication), social profile, environment, landscape, urban design, and visual
profile.
4. The study area extends over 32,000 sq km and comprises the jurisdiction of Nairobi
City Council and 14 other local authorities. Under the new geo-political system of the
country, the study area includes jurisdiction of 4 counties comprising Nairobi,
Kiambu, Machakos and Kajiado. The study area contained a population size of 6.65
million in 2009 (Ch. 1.0).
5. The spatial structure of NMR (Ch. 2.0) is influenced by various factors such as
strategic location, physical features, urban-rural interface, structure of land tenure,
transport structure, settlement structure, histroical prespective and land use
structure.
The approach emphasizes the interrelation and integration of different aspects and
actions to create a good NMR conceptual spatial plan, based on three key concepts:
NMR space as a field of activity, NMR space is structured for sustainable co-
existence and the spatial quality is best suitable for different activities within NMR
space.
There is no national land use framework in Kenya although plans are under way to
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develop a framework by the Director of Physical Planning and the stakeholders. One
major weakness of the regional plans so far prepared in the country, is the failure to
incorporate road network as basis of development framework The biggest challenge
for planning at the local level is the lack of capacity for the local authorities to cope
with the development challenges.
6. The preparation of the conceptual Spatial Plan for NMR is a muti-disciplinary
excercise. The study is based mainly on secondary information from various
sources. The different types of sectoral data (Ch. 3.0) such as physical planning,
demography, roads, transportation, regional economics, physical infrastructure
(water, sewerage, drainage, solid waste management, power and
telecommunication), social profile, environment, landscape, urban design have been
collected and collated.
The secondary data collection is also supported by inputs and interactions with the
Client and other stakeholders. Besides that, secondary data collection is
supplemented by primary data collection through: transport survey, stakeholders’
survey, updating base map by ground verification through GPS data
7. An overview of the relevant policies listed below (Ch. 4.0) made to appreciate their
impact on the preparation of conceptual plan for NMR within the framework of New
Constitution of Kenya
Kenya Vision 2030
Nairobi Metro, 2030: A World Class Metropolis
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
Nairobi Metropolitan Growth Strategy
Land Policy in Kenya: A National Land Use Policy
Housing Policy
National Transport Policy
Monetary Policy
Fiscal policy
Medium Term Plan (MTP) for 2008-12
Energy Regulatory Commission
Kenya Integrated Assessment of the Energy Policy
Feed in Tariff Policy on Wind, Biomass and Small Hydro Resource Generated
Electricity
8. The physiography of NMR (Ch. 5.0) which extends from the eastern edge of the
Rift Valley where the elevation is 2,300m above sea level and gradually slopes
down towards the east and the south to an altitude of 1,400m above mean sea
level. The terrain of the region gradually changes from low-lying plains in the
south to the Kenyan highlands in the north. The biggest feature of Kenya, the
Great Rift Valley forms the western edge of NMR.
Kenya can be divided into six major natural geographical regions. NMR is part of
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Executive Summary R0
the foreland plateau and highlands-comprising Eastern and Western. The rocks
in the Nairobi area mainly comprise a succession of lavas and Pyroclastics of the
Cainozoic age and overlying the foundation of folded Precambrian schist’s and
gneisses of the Mozambique belt.
Drainage of NMR is primarily into the basin of the Athi River and its tributaries.
NMR has numerous areas which need to be conserved. These include national
parks, forest areas, and city parks.
9. The total population of the NMR was 2.2 million in 1979 which increased to 6.7
million in 1989 registering a growth ratio of 3.78%. The population of core Nairobi is
3.1 million (2000) which accounts for 64% of the total population of the NMR. There
is a tendency of concentration of the population in the NMR especially around
Nairobi. The female population is more than male population in NMR, however, in
Nairobi there are more males than females. The density has changed from 68
persons per sq. km in 1979 to 207 persons per sq. km. in 2009. Moreover, the
density in Nairobi (4509.15 persons per sq. Km) has increased at a rapid pace
resulting in congestion (Ch 6.0).
The youthful structure of the population is a great advantage for the socio-economic
development. It also causes high dependency ratios and is responsible for high
unemployment rates and demands for education, housing, health, transport and
other social amenities. The population pyramid of Nairobi does not reflect a normal
structure. Between the age group of 6 and 19 years, both sexes decline in numbers
but pick up rapidly between the age group of 20 and 29 years. From then on the
pyramid exhibits a normal trend, with a gradual decrease of numbers with age but
more rapidly for females than males.
Illiteracy rates in Nairobi for the 15 – 54 years age group are 7.8 per cent for women
and 5.8 per cent for men. Illiteracy levels are 21 per cent for women and 12 per cent
for males.
The rate of increase in urban population is high with 73% of the population of
NMR in urban areas. The pattern of urbanization in the country is highly skewed
with the Nairobi area dominating and large regions of the country left with low
urbanization.
10. Kenya has pursued a mixed economy since 1963 (Ch. 7.0). However, there has
been a shift in emphasis from public investment to private sector led growth.
Market based reforms have been introduced since 1993 and more incentives for
both local and foreign private investment provided.
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Document: 2010063/UPD/ Status Report 2 December, 2010
Executive Summary R0
According to the Kenya Economic Update Kenya’s economy is recovering
steadily and is forecast to grow at 4.0 % in 2010. For 2011, the World Bank
forecasts growth at 5.3 %. Driven by strong public investments and improved
business confidence the economic indicators point to a full recovery and possibly
take off in the medium term. Under the high case scenario the economy could
achieve a growth of 6.0 % in 2011 and maintain that level in 2012.
Vision 2030 envisages a sustained average growth of 10 per cent per annum
over the next two decades implying that the size of the economy should double
every 7 years. NMR plays an important role in Kenya’s economy. NMR economy will
have to be stimulated to grow by 15% a year on an average by 2030 in order to
realize this 10 per cent per annum national growth rate. The per capita income of
NMR has to also grow by about 10% a year on an average in order to attain this
growth rate of 15%.
An analysis of sources of recent growth reveals that growth has largely been
driven by private consumption and investment. To sustain such a growth within a
stable macro-economic environment, aggregate expenditure should not outpace
the production capacity of the economy. In this regard, it will be important to
focus on removing supply-side constraints while maintaining a prudent monetary
and fiscal policy. Improvements in productivity and competitiveness are critical in
supporting this.
In 2009 agriculture, including forestry and fishing, accounted for about 10 percent
of GRDP of NMR, as well as for 20 percent of wage employment and 50 percent
of revenue from exports. The manufacturing sector growth rose by 10 per cent.
The sector is important in terms of its contribution to total output, export earnings
and in its employment creation capability. NMR’s services sector, contributed
about 68 percent to GDP in 2009.
Nairobi had employment accounting for 35 per cent of the total wage employment in
Kenya in 2009. Nairobi City had urban informal sector employment which accounts
for 65 percent. This corresponds to 25 percent of the total informal sector
employment in Kenya in 2009. Nairobi is dominant in employment generation in
Kenya for both the informal and the formal sectors. NMR faces five key employment
challenges, namely: high youth unemployment; rapidly growing labour force; under-
employment; the problem of the working poor; and gender inequality in employment.
The population living below the poverty line is estimated to have increased to 1.6
million in 2009.The incidence of poverty is higher in rural areas at 49 per cent
compared with 34 per cent in urban areas.
The micro and small enterprises (MSEs) sector contributes about 19 per cent of
GRDP of Nairobi. Further, the sector accounts for 90per cent of all the new jobs
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created and it employs 80 per cent of the total number of employees in the NMR.
The Economic Recovery Strategy (ERS) identifies the private sector in NMR as
the engine of growth. NMR faces major developmental challenges that include: a
high unemployment rate, a targeted approach to bring millions of families above
the poverty line, high inequality in income, considerable disparities in
development among the different regions, low investment rates, influx of
counterfeits goods, insecurity, weak governance, poor physical infrastructure,
heavy reliance on agriculture and export of primary products.
The mission for NMR economy are: building an internationally competitive and
inclusive economy for prosperity, building regional and global financial and other
services/hubs, building a regional trade and business service centre, eradicate
poverty, create the resources its people will need, creating a just and inclusive
systems that addresses the concerns of the weak and the vulnerable.
The challenges for achieving higher economic growth in NMR are many.
However; it possesses huge potentials in all the sectors of the economy such as
agricultural sector diversification and marketing, industrial growth and
upgradation, modernization of service industry. The diversification and
modernization of the economy further depends upon a host of factors such as
removing the infrastructure bottlenecks, development of ICT, establishments of
modern educational systems, diversification and modernization of tourism
industry along with establishment of eco-park, strengthening of the trade,
commerce and business activities, looking after environmental sustainability,
boosting up the consumer mechanism and thrift, removing political volatility and
incidence of insecurity, creation of employment opportunities, making planning
mechanism successful via implementation of inclusive planning oriented towards
programme of poverty eradication.
11. The Nairobi City lacks a clear planning strategy has led to unplanned, haphazard
pattern of development, leading to overconcentration of employment in the CBD
and industrial area, resulting in traffic congestion and environmental pollution,
and rapid growth of informal settlements (Ch. 8.0). The main problems faced by
NMR are providing shelter, basic urban services and transportation infrastructure,
improving its financial and institutional structure and management, and
formulating environmental policies and programmes.
The main issues which need immediate attention are: the interaction between the
different administrative units of the metropolis at the primary stage; the growth in
urban population concentrations and dependence upon employment availability
and informal settlements, and high incidence of urban poverty.
12. Land use is an integral component in any planning process (Ch. 9.0). It helps in
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estimating and analysing the quantum of land put to various uses and also the
quantum of land which can be utilized for future development. Landuse structures
of the following urban centres have been studied Nairobi, Thika, Ruiru, Limuru,
Kikuyu, Machakos, Athi River Town, Kajiado, and Kitengela.
Land use structure of the various urban centres of NMR, show that each town
has some portion of land under agricultural use which if required can be utilised
for further development of the towns. Another striking feature revealed in the land
use distribution is the fact that apart from Machakos, all other towns have very
less recreational spaces. Green spaces are very essential for both the health of
the town and the people.
13. Transport is an important component of a spatial development plan. Transport
impacts in a profound way the spatial structure of a city and its region. It
determines the directions of growth. Transport effects the economic viability and
social mobility of the region and its people. Transport consumes a large share of
the resources (land, capital, time environment, etc.) Appreciation of the transport
system of the region and the traffic and travel characteristics of the people is
important.(Ch. 10.0)
Kenya’s transport system comprises Road Network (159600 km), Rail Network
(2597 km), Airways (3 international and 17 commercial airports) a major port and
pipeline (900 km), Road system is the most important as it caters more than 85%
of travel demand in the country.
In NMR, the road system is the most predominant. The road network is of radial
pattern with Nairobi City as the focus. Orbital roads are missing. This has led to
concentration of activities within and intense traffic to and from the city.
9 radial road corridors traverse Nairobi City and extend into the region and
beyond. Of them Nairobi-Thika Road (A-2), Nairobi-Eldiret-Uganda) (A-104) and
Nairobi-Mombasa (A109) are important international trunk roads carrying large
volume of traffic. The major concentration of people and activities are along these
road corridors.
Nairobi city contains nearly 67% of the motor vehicles in Kenya.
Nairobi generates a large number of trips. Of them nearly 47% are by walk. Of
the motorised trips, public mass transport, comprising Matatus and buses,
account for about 70% of the share and nearly 4 million passengers per day.
Nairobi City screen line survey analysis shows following observations
A Maximum of 36858 vehicles was observed to be coming out of the
Nairobi CBD on to Uhuru highway from Haile Selassie Avenue
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The lowest volume of traffic entering on the Uhuru Highway from the CBD
area was 12561 vehicles on Lusaka Road
Mbagathi Way had a high proportion of cars (84% in the total traffic)
Haile Selassie Avenue had the lowest percentage of cars (21.85%)
Matatus constituted 55% of total traffic on Haile Selassie Avenue
Kenyatta Avenue had the lowest percentage of Matatu (1.2%)
About 15% of traffic on Lusaka Road which passes through the industrial
area consisted of LCVs
Traffic analysis indicates that passenger vehicles predominate on city roads while
goods traffic does not exceed 20% of the total traffic.
The traffic characteristics of the regional towns indicate a high intensity of walk
trips, long trip lengths by vehicles, high share of work trips and high dependence
on public transport modes, primarily the matatus.
A number of road development programs are under implementation. At the
regional level upgrading of Nairobi-Thika road is a major one with financial
assistance from African Development Bank and the Government of China. Within
Nairobi city southern and northern bypasses are under construction. Plans are
under preparation for improvement of Ngong Road, an important radial corridor.
The role of railways in enabling regional commuter movement is very limited.
However plans are on hand to upgrade the commuter rail system.
A recent feasibility study has identified a number of corridors, in the city and the
region, for development of high technology public mass transport systems
comprising Mass Rapid Transit System (MRTS) and Light Rail Transit Systems
(LRTS). The study has also proposed the development of an extensive regional
road network system with emphasis on orbital roads.
Institutional framework for the planning, development, operation and
management of the transport system is highly diffused with a number of
ministries, parastatals and private agencies involved. A coherent urban transport
policy and an effective institutional framework are urgent needs for the
development of an integrated transport system of NMR on a comprehensive,
continuous and coordinated manner
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14. Kenya has the study on the National Water Master Plan Geographical spread of
NMR occupies parts of 3 drainage basins - Tana River, Athi River and Rift Valley
Basin (Ch. 11.0). Only about 5% of Tana River Basin is within about 10% area of
NMR. About 70% areas of NMR is served by Athi River Basin and hence is the
vital element to support life in NMR. Water supply and Sanitation sector
interventions within NMR are managed by two boards namely – Athi Water
Services Board and Tanathi Water Services Board. The institutional framework
for water distribution is well organised with a number of parastatal and private
service providers.
Organised sewerage and sanitation facilities are available only in selected urban
centres within NMR. Predominant dependence is on Pit Latrines followed by
Septic Tanks. Open defecation by Children is also practiced. Available system
provisions are also malfunctioning primarily due to lack of operational and
maintenance support.
Due to naturally undulating terrain with a large network of natural streams form
an excellent combination, which assist drainage evacuation immensely. In some
areas combined sewers also are in place to provide relief. No organized system
of drainage also is known to be in place.
Physical component of the waste is very important in the selection of the
operation of equipment and facilities disposal strategy and disposal process. The
waste has grown by around 50% since 2006. In 2006, the Quantity of waste
received by Dandora site in Nairobi was 397.3 and in year 2009 quantity received
rose to 608.9 ton/day.
The KenGen is a licensed public electricity generator that is 70% owned by the
Government and 30% by the private shareholders. The company accounts for
about 60% of the installed capacity from various power generation sources that
include hydropower, thermal, geothermal and wind. Currently Nairobi city region
is supplied by three main supply points, Dandora 220/132 KV - 400 MVA,
Embarki 220/66 kV - 180 MVA and Nairobi North 220/66 kV – 180 MVA, a
combined total of 760 MVA against a peak demand of 570 MVA. From these
supply points power is transmitted to the city by 132 KV and 66 KV sub-
transmission systems. At present Kenya and NMR are having total installed
distribution transformer capacity 2415 MVA and 1694 MVA respectively.
The Power Purchase Agreements for Hydro, Thermal and Geothermal are based
on Capacity and Energy, signed with KPLC. Energy Regulatory Commission of
Kenya has set out the schedule of tariff, 2008 prescribing the tariffs, charges,
prices and rates to be charged by the Kenya power and Lighting Co. Ltd. to the
consumers for electrical energy consumed by them under Section 45 of the
Energy Act 2006.
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The geography of NMR poses a challenge to the development of telecommunication
network. There are certain areas that are lacking in infrastructure facility and
telecommunication network.
Quality of physical infrastructure and services is important in enabling Nairobi to
attain world class city status.
15. Like any other metropolis, there are a lot of apartments and big bungalow type
housing in Nairobi and low rise residential development in other parts of the
region. Even there are a lot of slum in the heart of the city of Nairobi.
Nairobi and NMR have a very low household size of 3.2 and 3.4 as compared to the
country’s average household size of 4.4.
Social amenities in NMR are also not evenly distributed over the region with Nairobi
forming the Hub of both educational and health facilities and in other parts of the
region one would have to travel a distance of 5km to 30km to avail these facilities.
16. The Environment Status in NMR consisting of geological features, drainage,
hydrology, climate, rainfall, temperature, drought and flood pattern (Ch. 13.0).
The Government of Kenya has established numerous goals and specific objectives
that relate to environmental policies and legislations. There is a need for an
integrated approach for environment planning in NMR. Environmental issues of the
region have to be identified and integrated in the development of the region. This will
not only initiate a healthy ecosystem but also achive the envisaged vision for NMR.
NMR has widespread forest lands, hills, national parks, numerous water bodies and
other green/open areas. The environment baseline consists of geological features,
drainage, hydrology, climate, rainfall, temperature, drought and flood pattern. Due to
increase in urbanization, particularly Nairobi city and surroundings, there is more
requirement of housing and other economic development that can provide more
employment in the region. Often these eco-sensetive areas are effected due to
various pollution or encroached disturbing the ecology. They are potential resources
of the region that need to be conserved to promote eco-tourism and boost the
regional economy.
17. The most prominent issues with urban environment in NMR for regional landscape
(Ch. 14.0) is to transform the urban place in such a way that a positive place
branding can be achieved. Presently important planning concerns are the following
which may be mitigated with effective urban planning policies-
Principally daylight economy
High level of crime and insecurity
Encroachment of conservation areas and river flood plains
Negative environmental impacts due to urban growth
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18. The built form determines the urban aesthetics and the brand image of the city and its
region. Urban design aspects have been studied (Ch. 15.0) and investigated to
understand three main approaches such as:
Imagability of the city - the visual intelligibility which is shared by all inhabitants
through their mental perception
Quality to the urbanity of spaces, the unforced liveliness that creates sense of
safety and belonging
Effect of the geometric characteristics of physical elements of the urban fabric
building facades and street furniture
19. Effective institutional arrangement is important in the formulation, implementation and
coordination of the Spatial Development Plan for NMR (Ch. 16.0). A number of
organizations get established over a period of time with specific objectives, functions
and procedures. However, over the time development aspects and needs make the
organizations inadequate, in effective and uncoordinated. Institutional reforms and
restructuring become important and critical for implementation of plans and
achievements of envisaged vision.
The Government of the Republic of Kenya has put in place laws and regulations
that govern physical planning and development in the country. A well planned
physical development is critical for social-economic growth. A review of the
existing Acts listed belowhas been carried out to appreciate the legal framework
for the planning and implementation of the Spatial Development Plan.
The Physical Planning Act Cap 286
Local Government Act Chapter 265
The Local Government Act Cap 405
The Land Planning Act Chapter 303
The Registered Land Act Chapter 300
The Land Control Act Cap 302
The Land Acquisition Act Cap 295
Housing Act Chapter 117
The Water Act, 2002
Wildlife (Conservation and Management) Act Cap 376
The Forests Act, 2005
The Environment Management and Co-ordination Act 1999
The Kenya Roads Board Act 1999 Cap 408
The Kenya Roads Act 2007
Kenya Railways Corporation Act (CAP 397)
The Kenya Airports Authority Act, Cap 395
The Civil Aviation Act, Cap 394
The State Corporations Act, Chapter 446
Constituency Development Fund Act No. 11 of 2004
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The Physical Planning Act Cap 286 and the Local Government Act 265 plays a
vital role in Spatial Development Plan of NMR. The Act vests responsibilities of
the preparation of all spatial development plans, policies, guidelines and in
research, advising the Commissioner of Lands and local authorities on the most
appropriate use of land and requirement of proper execution of projects
Planning activities are carried out by different government agencies in NMR.
They work independently of each other and their outputs may not integrate both
spatial and non spatial aspects of development. Hence for the comprehesive, co-
ordinated and continuous planning, development, operation and management of
NMR, goverance/institutional refroms and restructuring is critical.
All the above-mentioned plans have been prepared at the national level. However; in
order to make it applicable at the regional and local level there is a need to develop a
conceptual frame, promote intense debate, arrive at consensus, pass enabling
statutes including relevant amendments to existing ones, constitute new
organizations, redistribute functions, powers and responsibilities amongst the many
actors and stakeholders at all levels of governance and, most important, nurture the
new organizations with care and dedication to enable them to grow, mature and
discharge their functions and responsibilities in an effective and sustained manner.
20. The existing resource mobilization patterns in NMR are important to analyze before
switching over to any improvement and suggestions (Ch. 17.0) . Presently there are
three important sources for mobilization of resource in NMR such as mobilization of
fund by Government, financing by development partners, and resource mobilization
through external source. The Government sources includes: revenue collection
through tax administration, domestic financing through net lending to public
institutions, public debt, deficit financing, fiscal decentralization, and mobilization of
resources by city council & local authorities. Financing by development partners
includes private sector financing, public private partnerships. The external source of
borrowing includes borrowing funds from major financial institutions.
21. An understanding of the stakeholders needs, perception and suggestions is
impotrant. The discussions and the response of the stakeholders’ with varied
background, interest and perception has been invaluable in the appreciation of the
stakeholders’ needs, perceptions and suggestions. The preliminary stakeholders’
analysis would include the following aspects: concept of SDP for NMR; ideas about
world class cities; land; growth directions; and NMR after 20 years. They will form the
basis and act as valuable guidelines in the formulation of the Concept Spatial
Development Plan of NMR (Ch. 18.0).
22. A SWOT Analysis of different sectors of NMR such as population, economy,
environment, land, transport including an area-wise SWOT analysis has been
detailed out, which includes Nairobi, Thika, Kiambu, Kajiado and Machakos. This is
followed by an overall SWOT Analysis for NMR. Emphasis need to be given to
overcome the weakness and threats through judicious exploitation of strengths and
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potentials within Nairobi Metropolitan Region (Ch. 19.0)
23. Kenya is experiencing rapid urbanization. Presently there is no comprehensive
National Urbanization Policy guiding, facilitating and promoting a balanced
urbanization pattern. There are a number of sub-sectoral policies like Housing Policy,
Transport Policy, Land Policy, Infrastructure Policy which are uni-functional in
nature. The pattern of urbanization in the country is highly skewed with the Nairobi
area dominating and large regions of the country left with low urbanization. There is
an urgent need for a National Urbanization Policy which has many dimensions. It
needs to be supported and enabled by a number of sectoral policies including
population, land, housing, transport, physical services, social services, monetary,
fiscal, legal and institutional (Ch. 20.0).
24. A visual perception of NMR is presented through photographs (Ch. 21.0). The visual
walk-through starts with Nairobi and then travel to the neighbouring towns of the
region.The visual presentation establishes the inherent beauty of the city that needs
to be conserved and enhanced through a conceptual spatial planning and
development to achieve the status of a World class city/ region.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Working Paper on
NMR 2030: Population
Forecast & Distribution,
Employment, Occupation
Structure and Urban Land
Use Structure
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Study on
Concept Spatial Development Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region
Working Paper
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY People concentrate in urban areas/regions to benefit from the variety of opportunities the
urban areas offer. People and activities need space and services. The productivity and
competitiveness of, and the quality of life in, an urban area depends on the harmonious
balance between demand and supply of various needs. The Spatial Development Plan
(SDP) of an urban area/region is an expression of this balance. The Working Paper, on an
appreciation of the present population, employment and land use characteristics and their
trends in the Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR) and its component units, presents the
forecasts the population in the NMR under different scenarios of development. The forecast
of 15.14 million, by 2030, under Vision Scenario, has been selected for detailing the SDP.
The distribution of the forecast population in the different spatial units has been made. As a
development policy, it is proposed to contain the population of Nairobi city, by 2030, to be
5.25 million.
Kenya Vision 2030 envisages a sustained growth of GDP at 10% upto 2030. The GDP of
NMR has to grow at a higher rate of 15%, in the initial decades. Presently the people in the
age group 15-64 are considered as the labour force. However, with socio-economic
development, the labour force size will reduce. Based on revised WPR of NMR and the
component spatial units, the employment size in NMR as a total, in the sub-regions and in
urban centres have been forecast. The WPR of urban areas, by 2030, is proposed to be
35% and of rural areas to be 40%. The employment size in NMR, by 2030, is estimated to
be 5.4 million, an almost threefold increase from the present. The occupation structures of
the urban areas have been proposed based on their envisaged functions.
Presently the economy of NMR is highly informal, the ratio of formal to informal employment
being 1:3.96 in NMR and 1:3.98 in Nairobi. With development, it is envisaged that there will
be formalization of the economy, an objective of Nairobi Metro Vision 2030. It is assumed
that the ratios will normalize to 1:2 in NMR and 1:1 in Nairobi City.
Land is a critical need for the planning and development of urban areas. Policy towards
adoption of city level gross densities is important to estimate land area required. Optimum
city level densities, based on city size (population), have been conceptualized. Based on the
function, the land use structures of the different urban centres have been proposed.