speaker: marvin zonis , professor emeritus, the graduate school of business,
DESCRIPTION
GLOBAL RISKS AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: CAN THE U.S. DEAL WITH DOMESTIC GRIDLOCK & MEET ITS FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGES?. SPEAKER: Marvin Zonis , Professor Emeritus, the Graduate School of Business, the University of Chicago. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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PLUS 2012 Symposia
GLOBAL RISKS AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: CAN THE U.S. DEAL WITH DOMESTIC GRIDLOCK
& MEET ITS FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGES?
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GLOBAL RISKS AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: CAN THE U.S. DEAL WITH DOMESTIC GRIDLOCK& MEET ITS FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGES?
SPEAKER: Marvin Zonis, Professor Emeritus, the Graduate School of Business,
the University of Chicago.
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The New Yorker, March 12, 2012 4
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Take Aways:How Does the World Work?
*Nationalism*Current Account Deficits/Surpluses*Deleveraging
The Great Global Challenges of 2012:
Global Political Challenges in 2012
*The Global Context *China*The United States *Russia*The Arab World *The Eurozone*Iran *Energy*Pakistan/ Afghanistan *Emerging Markets
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Global Political Challenges in 2012Take Aways
*“It’s Not As Bad As It Sounds” (Mark Twain) BUT the really good news is 3 to 5 years off*New presidents in 2012*Globalization disseminates everything – not just goods but ideas, people, drugs, services, revolution, disease, emotions, finance, and supply chains
*The Middle East in Turmoil – and the turn to Islam*Pakistan and Afghanistan – not on “our” planet?*The eurozone, as we know it, is doomed*China-more instability, slower growth, stuck in middle income*Russia living off oil while the Russians strike back*Major oil price shock in 2012?*Major transformations are in the works – booming developing economies and technological marvels. Africa and Mexico big beneficiaries
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Global Political Challenges in 2012
The Global Context in 2012Economic SlowdownGlobal RebalancingDeleveragingNew Presidents
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International Air Travel: 02/08 – 01/12(Passenger & Freight)
International Air Travel Association
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Global Rebalancing:How’s Your Current Account?
Country Deficit Country Surplus
Turkey -10.3% Saudi Arabia +24.4%
Greece -8.6 Singapore +18.4
Poland -4.7 Switzerland +13.6
Spain -3.7 Malaysia +12.1
Italy -3.6 Taiwan +8.2
U.S.A. -3.1 Netherlands +7.0
Canada -2.9 Germany +5.2
France -2.5 China +3.1
India -2.3 South Korea +2.6
Great Britain -1.9 Japan +2.2
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Global Deleveraging
https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Working_out_of_debt_2914
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Global Deleveraging
11 McKinsey Global Institute, Federal Reserve, Bea, Financial Times, March 13, 2012
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New Presidents in 2012?GDP
(Billions Current US$)GDP
(PPP Billions US$)
China $5,926.6 $10,169.5
Dominican Repub. 51.8 92.8
Finland 238.7 196.6
France 2,560.0 2,194.1
India 1,727.1 4,194.9
Korea 1,014.4 1,417.5
Mexico 1,034.8 1,644.4
Russia 1,479.8 2,812.3
Taiwan 430.6 821.8
U.S. 14,587.7 14,587.7
Venezuela 391.8 352.7
World Bank, World Development Indicators
Total World $63,123.9 $76,647.4
Presidents’ % 46.7 % 50.2 %
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Global Political Challenges in 2012
The United States
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An Election Campaign in This Context
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/2167/rich-poor-social-conflict-class14
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http://www.gallup.com/poll/151568/americans-prioritize-growing-economy-reducing-wealth-gap.aspx
How important Do You Think It Is For The Government In Washington To
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And U.S. Deleveraging
16
McKinsey Global Institute, Federal Reserve, Bea, Financial Times, March 13, 2012
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http://www.businessinsider.com/the-war-between-young-people-and-old-people-for-jobs-2011-9?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+clusterstock+%28ClusterStock%29
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Proportion of Output Employers Spend on Labor
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08
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Whose Incomes Increased?
iTulip.com
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Concentration of Wealth
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-fed-housing-and-stocks-chimera-middle-class-assets
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Income Inequality Growing
The New York Times, March 26, 201121
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Budget Threats
http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/11frusg/11guide.pdf22
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But It’s The Interest Payments
http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/11frusg/11guide.pdf23
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The Wall Street Journal, April 28, 2011
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Global Political Challenges in 2012
The Middle East
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Still Smiling?
“The priority today is the return of security, which cannot be achieved unless terrorism is hit with an iron fist.”
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Still Smiling?
“The priority today is the return of security, which cannot be achieved unless terrorism is hit with an iron fist.”
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An Alawite Redoubt? A Turkish Border Refuge Zone?
http://geocurrents.info/geopolitics/confusion-about-syrias-alawites
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Libya Struggles to Create a Government
Spiegel Online, March 21 2011
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Libya in Parts
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Egypt: 70.49% of Seats to “Islam”
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The Winners of 21 Percent of the Vote
“Even if we can’t provide economic renewal, it’s enough if we can lift the non-believers up and show them monotheism.”
Said Abdul-Azzim Ali. The leader of Nour in Alexandria
Financial Times, November 16, 2011
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Bad (Economic) Times Ahead
http://www.economist.com/node/21546018
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Iraq - Feb. 22, ‘12: 26 Attacks, 13 Bombs: 55 Dead, 100s Injured
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Saudi King Abdullah’s Problems
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Saudi King Abdullah’s Problems
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Saudi Budget Squeeze
Water Subsidies: $20 billion
Electricity Subsidies: $15 billion
Abdullah’s New Promises: $130 billion
Saudi Gas: $.48 per gallon
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http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1814/muslim-public-opinion-hamas-hezbollah-al-qaeda-islam-role-in-politics-democracy
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If “Islam is the Answer” Is Turkey the Question?
http://www.talkturkey.us/images/mrandmrserdogan.gif
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If “Islam is the Answer” Is Turkey the Question?
http://www.talkturkey.us/images/mrandmrserdogan.gif
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Global Political Challenges in 2012
Iran
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Ayatollah Khamene’i February 3, 2012
This "truly cancerous tumor, Israel, must disappear from this region, and this undoubtedly will take place."
http://www.leader.ir/langs/fa/index.php?p=contentShow&id=9093
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New Iranian Nuclear Site
http://news.cnet.com/8301-30685_3-10362358-264.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20
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44
Iranian Missile Program
Iran’s Developing Nuclear and Missile Program, CSIS, 2-15-07
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Before: Iranian Missile Development Base
http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/satellite-image-showing-damage-from-november-12-2011-blast-at-military-base/
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Before: Iranian Missile Development Base
http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/satellite-image-showing-damage-from-november-12-2011-blast-at-military-base/
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Before: Iranian Missile Development Base
http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/satellite-image-showing-damage-from-november-12-2011-blast-at-military-base/
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After- Missile Base Outside Bid Khaneh
http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/satellite-image-showing-damage-from-november-12-2011-blast-at-military-base/
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Global Political Challenges in 2012
Pakistan - Afghanistan
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Pakistan
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Sirajuddin Haqqani
"The Haqqani network... acts as a veritable arm of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence Agency." Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, September 26, 2011.
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Pakistani Beliefs
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1683/
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Foreign Policy, May 19, 2011
“Men Are Fundamental. Women Are Secondary.”
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Global Political Challenges in 2012
China
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Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang
55 http://www.zimbio.com/photos/Xi+Jinping/Li+Keqiang/NPC+Seventh+Plenary+Session/5BkdR4EtIcn
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Bo Xilai Out; Xi Jinping Speaks
“If you crave to be ostentatious, to play to the crowd,and seek fame and fortune. . . (it) damages the party’simage, let’s people down and makes them lose faith in us.”
The Wall Street Journal, March 17-18, 2012
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What Are The Delegates Wearing?
www.weibo.com/menglikeerZegna Jacket
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China’s Exports
58
http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/frank-talk/?i=2803
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Shanghai 1990
http://www.businessinsider.com
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Shanghai 2010
http://www.businessinsider.com
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Vice President Xi Jinping“We must develop the economy mainly by relying on the domestic market and attach great importance to domestic demand, especially consumption demand, in driving economic develop-ment. . . It is important that we open our markets even wider, firmly oppose and resist protectionism in all forms, and uphold a fair, free and open global trade and investment system. . .”
Bloomberg, April 10, 2010
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Up to $1.9 Trillion of New Consumption?
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GNI Per Capita and Governance Score(2010)
Middle Income Countries High Income Countries
Country GNI/Capita Governance Score Country GNI/Capita Governance Score
Belarus $6,130 107.4 Hong Kong $32,780 524.1
Russia 9,910 158.2 U.S.A. 47,240 501.3
China 4,260 211.1
Argentina 8,500 248.7
Colombia 5,510 259.0
Turkey 9,890 302.5
Brazil 9,390 339.8
South Africa 6,090 356.1
Malaysia 7,760 363.4
Lithuania 11,390 435.4
World Bank - http://worldbank.org
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World Bank Governance
World Bank Governance Indicators
Voice and AccountabilityPolitical StabilityGovernment EffectivenessRegulatory QualityRule of LawControl of Corruption
64
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Of 101 Middle-income Economies In 1960, Only 13 Became High Income By 2008
65http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2012/02/28/000356161_20120228001303/Rendered/PDF/671790WP0P127500China020300complete.pdf
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1cfa57c4-ed03-11df-9912-00144feab49a.html#axzz15JYJJ7A9
“A Healthy Great Power Mentality”
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President Hu on the West
"We must clearly see that international hostile forces are intensifying the strategic plot of Westernizing and dividing China, and ideological and cultural fields are the focal areas of their long-term infiltration. . . We should deeply understand the seriousness and complexity of the ideological struggle, always sound the alarms and remain vigilant, and take forceful measures to be on guard and respond. . .The overall strength of Chinese culture and its international influence is not commensurate with China's international status. . .The international culture of West is strong while we are weak.”
[email protected], January 4, 2012
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But Repression Is Increasing
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1945/chinese-may-not-be-ready-for-revolution
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The Chinese Get Richer – And Then What?
The Wall Street Journal, November 2, 2011
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Global Political Challenges in 2012
Russia
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The President
71
http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/7/2011/12/28292cf2f8be4d6dfe8ec21941e88fa2.jp
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What Happens with Political Instability
72
Capital Flight
2010: $33.6 billion
Capital Flight
2011: $84.2 billion
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GNI Per Capita and Governance Score(2010)
Middle Income Countries High Income Countries
Country GNI/Capita Governance Score Country GNI/Capita Governance Score
Belarus $6,130 107.4 Hong Kong $32,780 524.1
Russia 9,910 158.2 U.S.A. 47,240 501.3
China 4,260 211.1
Argentina 8,500 248.7
Colombia 5,510 259.0
Turkey 9,890 302.5
Brazil 9,390 339.8
South Africa 6,090 356.1
Malaysia 7,760 363.4
Lithuania 11,390 435.4
World Bank - http://worldbank.org
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World Bank DefinitionsWorld Bank Governance Indicators
Voice and AccountabilityPolitical StabilityGovernment EffectivenessRegulatory QualityRule of LawControl of Corruption
Gross National Income (same as GDP) – Atlas Method in Current US $
National Income converted to US $ using a three year average of exchange rates adjusted for inflation
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Global Political Challenges in 2012
The Euro
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What It Means to be German ChancellorAt the Beginning Now
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77
http://Europe on the Brink, Policy Brief, Peterson Institute for International Economics, July 2011
Principal To Be Paid From July 2011 to July 2012 (light) Plus budget Deficits (dark) For Euro Area Members As % of 2011 Estimated GDP
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163 % of GDP Declining to 120 by 2020
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/bild-815097-309872.html
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Portugal Bond Yield
http://www.google.com/imgres?q=portugal&start=0&ndsp=19&ved=1t:429,r:9,s:0
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How The U.S. Did It!
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/2/27/US_Public_debt_per_GDP_1791-2006.svg/697px-US_Public_debt_per_GDP_1791-2006.svg.png
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Global Political Challenges in 2012
The Oil Problem
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Spending More
82 International Energy Agency, Financial Times, March 24, 2012
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Global Political Challenges in 2012
The Continued Emergence of the Emerging Markets
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Global Political Challenges in 2012
Mexico
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President Calderon and Bombardier
Gannett News Service
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Enrique Pena Nieto, Andrés Manuel López Obrador Josefina Vazquez Mota
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Mexico
The New York Times, July 6, 2011
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The True Size of Africa
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African Futures2010 2011 2012
Angola 1.6% 7.8% 10.5%
Botswana 8.6 6.0 6.6
D.R. Congo 7.2 6.5 6.0
Republic of Congo 9.1 7.8 4.7
Ethiopia 8.0 8.5 8.0
Kenya 5.0 5.7 6.5
Mali 4.5 6.0 5.4
Mozambique 7.0 7.5 7.8
Niger 7.5 5.5 15.4
Nigeria 8.4 6.9 6.6
Rwanda 6.5 6.5 7.0
Tanzania 6.5 6.4 6.6
Uganda 5.2 6.0 6.5
Zimbabwe 9.0 7.3 5.7
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/
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Asian Futures2010 2011 2012
Bangladesh 6.0% 6.3% 6.6%
Cambodia 6.0 6.5 6.5
China 10.3 9.6 9.5
India 10.4 8.2 7.8
Indonesia 6.1 6.2 6.5
Lao P.D. R. 7.7 7.5 7.3
Malaysia 7.2 5.5 5.2
Myanmar 5.3 5.5 5.5
Philippines 7.3 5.0 5.0
Sri Lanka 9.1 7.0 6.5
Thailand 7.8 4.0 4.5
Vietnam 6.8 6.3 6.8
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http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011
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Latin America Futures
2010 2011 2012
Costa Rica 4.7% 4.4% 4.5%
Dominican Republic 7.8 5.5 5.5
Panama 7.5 7.4 7.2
Argentina 9.2 6.0 4.6
Brazil 7.5 4.1 3.6
Chile 5.2 6.2 5.0
Colombia 4.3 4.6 4.5
Peru 8.9 6.6 5.9
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/update/02/pdf/0611.pdf
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It’s Up To US
The challenges confronting the United States and the world are many. The resources – intellectual, financial, political, military – for confronting, surmounting and ultimately benefitting from those challenges are huge. What are the impediments? As usual – ideology, self-interest, narrow mindedness, lack of political will, fear. What will you do to help this country overcome those impediments. YOU!
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PLUS has made Wi-Fi available to all PLUS attendees during the Symposia.
The Wi-Fi Code is PLUS-Symp2012
Wi-Fi is only available on Level 4, the Ballroom Level and will not work in other areas of the hotel.